greater memphis msa · 2020-07-02 · indicators to watch –greater memphis unemployment rate, ......
TRANSCRIPT
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Greater Memphis MSA Market Overview
LAST UPDATED: July 2, 2020
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• The National Bureau of Economic Research officially declared the US economy in a recession on Monday, June 8. Starting in February, this recession ends a decade long period of economic expansion and the longest in recorded US history.
• This edition of the Greater Memphis MSA Market Overview highlights select labor market indicators that are published on a monthly and a weekly schedule.
• The higher frequency weekly indicators, noted on the following page, serve as leading indicators and could signal worsening or better employment outcomes for the region against the monthly reports.
Greater Memphis Market Overview –COVID-19 Edition
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Indicators to Watch – Greater Memphis
Unemployment Rate, Memphis MSA
Seasonally Adjusted
Initial Unemployment Claims, New Claims Filed
Over the Month Job Change Weekly Job Postings
Monthly Weekly Monthly Weekly
May 2020
11.2%-2.2% MoM
Week Ending June 27
6,310+6.4% WoW
April/May 2020
+14,700+2.5% MoM-8.6% YoY
June 27
4,793+19.05% WoW
Source: U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics, Tennessee Department of Labor and Workforce Development, Burning Glass Technologies Labor Insight
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Greater Memphis MSA Unemployment Rate
LAST UPDATED: July 2, 2020
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Memphis, 11.2
United States, 13.3
United States, 11.1
0.0
5.0
10.0
15.0
Jan-19
Feb-19
Mar-1
9Ap
r-19
May-1
9Jun
-19Jul
-19Au
g-19
Sep-19
Oct-1
9No
v-19
Dec-1
9
Jan-20
Feb-20
Mar-2
0Ap
r-20
May-2
0Jun
-20
Unemployment RateSeasonally Adjusted
Unemployment RateJanuary 2019 to YTD 2020, Seasonally Adjusted
Source: U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics, via the St. Louis Federal Reserve
Unemployment Rate
The Greater Memphis MSA has held competitive unemployment rates against the State of Tennessee and the Nation since the onset of the pandemic.
May 2020, the Greater Memphis MSA held an unemployment rate of 11.2%. Lower than both the State of Tennessee and the Nation at 11.3 and 13.3, respectively.
The June 2020 rate for the United States fell to 11.1%. The next release for metropolitan estimates will be July 29, 2020.
United StatesTennesseeMemphis MSA
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Unemployment Rate Greater Memphis Counties
Fayette County, TN, 8.2
Tipton County, TN, 8.6
De Soto County, MS, 7.9
Tunica County, MS, 23.5
Tate County, MS, 9.1
Marshall County, MS, 8.3
Crittenden County, AR, 12.5
Shelby County, TN, 11.6
0.0
5.0
10.0
15.0
20.0
25.0
30.0
Jan-19
Feb-19
Mar-1
9Ap
r-19
May-1
9Jun
-19Jul
-19Au
g-19
Sep-19
Oct-1
9No
v-19
Dec-1
9Jan
-20Feb
-20
Mar-2
0Ap
r-20
May-2
0
Unemployment RateJanuary 2019 to YTD 2020, Not Seasonally Adjusted
Unemployment Rate
Source: U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics, via the St. Louis Federal Reserve
The unemployment rate for counties that comprise the metro area vary widely.
Tunica County, MS holds the highest May 2020 rate at 23.5%. De Soto County, MS holds the lowest May 2020 unemployment rate at 7.9%.
The unemployment rate for Shelby County in May 2020 was 11.6%
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Greater Memphis MSA Initial and Continued Unemployment Claims
LAST UPDATED: July 2, 2020
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236 622 483 418 436 442 363 355 369 357 543
4,702
11,902
13,521
9,52510,147
7,755 7,947
6,8906,349 6,209 6,076 6,288 5,706 5,929
6310
0
2,000
4,000
6,000
8,000
10,000
12,000
14,000
16,000
Initial Unemployment Insurance Claims Greater Memphis Counties
Average Weekly Claims Weeks Ending Jan 4 – March 7 408
Average Weekly Claims Weeks Ending March 14 – June 27: 7,237
April 4March 7Feb 1Jan 4
Source Tennessee Department of Labor and Workforce Development, Greater Memphis portion of TN includes the counties of Shelby, Fayette, Tipton, and Lauderdale
Initial Claims
Weeks Ending Jan 4, 2020 to June 27, 2020
115,800New Unemployment Insurance Claims in Greater Memphis since the week ending March 14, 2020
May 2 June 6 June 27
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3,141
55,91457,476
0
10,000
20,000
30,000
40,000
50,000
60,000
70,000
03/14
/2020
03/21
/2020
03/28
/2020
04/04
/2020
04/11/
2020
04/18
/2020
04/25
/2020
05/02
/2020
05/09
/2020
05/16
/2020
05/23
/2020
05/30
/2020
06/06
/2020
06/13
/2020
06/20
/2020
06/27
/2020
Continued Claims: Unemployment Insurance ClaimsGreater Memphis, TN Counties
Continued ClaimsMarch 14 to YTD 2020Continued Claims
A steady increase in continued unemployment claims indicates a workforce not yet re-entering the labor market.
Counties within the Tennessee portion of Greater Memphis saw a 2.8% increase in continued claims week-over-week June 20 to June 27th.
Source Tennessee Department of Labor and Workforce Development, Greater Memphis portion of TN includes the counties of Shelby, Fayette, Tipton, and Lauderdale
Continued claims, also referred to as insured unemployment, is the number of people who have already filed an initial claim and who have experienced a week of unemployment and then filed a continued claim to claim benefits for that week of unemployment.
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Greater Memphis MSA Jobs and Employment
LAST UPDATED: July 2, 2020
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Over the Month Job ChangeNon-Farm Payroll Employment, Greater Memphis MSA
580
600
620
640
66020
07
2008
2009 2010
2011
2012
2013
2014
2015
2016
2017
2018
2019
2020
Non-Farm Payroll (Jobs)January 2007 to May 2020, Seasonally Adjusted
Jobs (‘000s)
Source: U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics, via the St. Louis Federal Reserve Shaded areas indicate U.S. recessions
Great RecessionNon-farm payrolls (jobs) in the Memphis metropolitan area increased by nearly 15,000 in May 2020, a month-over-month increase of approximately 2.5%.
Although employment is still well below pre-pandemic levels, the May2020 jobs report provides a hopeful picture that labor market activity is returning.
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Over the Month Job Change by Industry SectorNon-Farm Payroll Employment, Greater Memphis MSA
Jobs (‘000s)
-1.3
0.7
-3.8
0.3
-10.7
0.7
-0.2
0.1
-7.1
1.7
-7.4
1.9
-3.6
0.3
-3.3
0.1
-2.6
0.1
-30.3
8.8
-35.0
-30.0
-25.0
-20.0
-15.0
-10.0
-5.0
0.0
5.0
10.0
15.0
April May
Construction
Other Services
Trade/Transportation
Information
Education and Health
Professional/Business Services
Manufacturing
Government
Financial Activites
Leisure and Hospitality
With dramatic losses in employment in April, May 2020 posted welcome relief to the
region’s labor market activity.
Shown above, Leisure and Hospitality posted the strongest gains in May, adding 8,800 jobs, nearly 30% of jobs lost in April. This is followed
by Professional and Business Services and Education and Health increasing 1,900 and
1,700, respectively.
Source: U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics, via the St. Louis Federal Reserve
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Greater Memphis MSA Employer Demand
LAST UPDATED: July 2, 2020
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4,228
2,016
4,793
1,000
1,500
2,000
2,500
3,000
3,500
4,000
4,500
5,0001/4
/20
1/11/2
0
1/18/
20
1/25/
20
2/1/2
0
2/8/
20
2/15
/20
2/22
/20
2/29
/20
3/7/
20
3/14
/20
3/21
/20
3/28
/20
4/4/
20
4/11/
20
4/18
/20
4/25
/20
5/2/
20
5/9/
20
5/16
/20
5/23
/20
5/30
/20
6/6/
20
6/13
/20
6/20
/20
6/27
/20
Job Posting ActivityOnline Job Postings within the Greater Memphis MSA
Online Job Postings
52% reduction in online job postings March 14 to
May 2, 2020
138% acceleration in online job postings May 2 to
June 27, 2020
Source: Burning Glass Technologies
+19.05% June 20 to June 27, 2020
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Job Posting ActivityTop 20 In-Demand Occupations, last 60 days
Source: Burning Glass Technologies
902634
537453
380375370
340337
311301
294285283
272270
261238
214200
Laborer / Warehouse WorkerRetail Sales Associate (General)
Tractor-Trailer Truck Driver (General)Building and General Maintenance Technician
Customer Service Representative (General)Food Service Team Member
Registered NurseJanitor / Cleaner
Restaurant / Food Service ManagerRestaurant / Food Service Supervisor
Retail Store ManagerSales Representative
Maid / Housekeeping StaffForklift / Pallet Jack Operator
Security OfficerProduction Worker
CookWaiter / Waitress
Licensed Practical / Vocational NurseOffice / Administrative Assistant
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Job Posting ActivityTop 20 Employers posting, last 60 days
Source: Burning Glass Technologies
563428
421206
196125124122121
115100
9190
8686
7977
737372
Methodist Le Bonheur Healthcarecbre
FedExBaptist Memorial Health Care Corporation
Carrols CorporationLowe's Companies, Inc
Mississippi Baptist Health SystemsAnthem Blue Cross
St. Jude Children's Research HospitalServiceMaster
University of TennesseeBurger King
Tenet Health SystemShelby County Schools
Allied UniversalDollar General
Universal Health Services, Inc.Inspire Brands
AmazonSprouts Farmers Markets
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Insights
• The Greater Memphis MSA has held competitive unemployment rates against the State of Tennessee and the Nation since the onset of the pandemic. For May 2020, the Greater Memphis MSA held an unemployment rate of 11.2%. This is lower than both the State of Tennessee and the Nation at 11.3 and 13.3, respectively. However, Shelby County held a higher May 2020 rate of 11.6%.
• Both Initial and Continued Unemployment Insurance Claims increased week-over-week from June 20 to June 27th. This increase could be seen with the release of June 2020 numbers and could reflect headwinds being realized in tandem with the continued increases in COVID-19 cases.
• Non-farm payrolls (jobs) in the Memphis metropolitan area increased by nearly 15,000 in May 2020, a month-over-month increase of approximately 2.5%. Although employment is still well below pre-pandemic levels, the May 2020 jobs report provides a hopeful picture that labor market activity is returning.
• Leisure and Hospitality posted the strongest gains in May, adding 8,800 jobs, nearly 30% of jobs lost in April. Other notable increases within industry sectors included Professional and Business Services and Education and Health increasing 1,900 and 1,700, respectively.
• Online job postings, a proxy for employer demand, have accelerated rapidly. Since May 2, 2020 online job postings have increased 138%, 19.05% June 20 to June 27, 2020. While indicative of accelerated demand, opportunities to shift labor market displacement exists - leveraging skills of displaced workers for in-demand occupations within new industries.