Greater Phoenix 2100: Building a National Urban

Environmental Research Agenda

Jonathan FinkVice Provost for Research

Arizona State University

Greater Phoenix 2100

• What kind of Phoenix do we want in 2100?• How do we describe Phoenix today?• How do we characterize explosive growth? • What tools can help forecast our future?• Can science help answer these questions?

What’s being done nationally?

• Los Alamos Labs Urban Security Project

• USGS Urban Dynamics Project

• NSF Urban Research Initiative

• Various university institutes

• State/regional “smart growth” initiatives

• Few Coordinated Activities

Plume dispersion over N. Dallas modeled with HOTMAC-RAPTAD-

GASFLOW system

Los Alamos Lab Urban Security

Initiative

USGS Urban

Dynamics Research Program

U.S. urban growth: 1975-1995

What’s missing?

• Coordinated Federal effort

• Federal/state/private/academic collaborations

• Linkage of social, biological, physical

• Scientific foundation for growth debates

• Tools for forecasting impact of growth

NSF Central Arizona – Phoenix Long-Term Ecological Research

• Decade-scale monitoring project

• 48 co-investigators from 14 departments

• ASU partners with State, cities, federal labs

• Complement to Baltimore LTER

• Ideal platform for urban modeling/analysis

CAP is one of two urban LTERs

PhoenixBaltimore

young cityrapid growth

aridrugged

libertarian politics

old cityslower growth

humidflat

activist politics

53

CAP LTER Objectives

• Test ecological theory in urban settings

• Better understanding of ecology of cities

• Relate ecological and sociological factors

• Archive large body of scientific data

• Engage public (K-12) in scientific discovery

• Spin off additional research opportunities

LTER-related research projectsat ASU (most > $300K/year)

• Urban airshed modeling (DOE, ADOT)

• Remote sensing of 100 cities (NASA)

• Urban CO2 island (NSF-URI)

• Urban ecology grad. program (IGERT-NSF)

• SW Center for Env. Res. & Policy (EPA)

• Center for sustainable water reuse (EPA)

• SUPERPAVE (US DOT)

• Benign semiconductor manufacturing (NSF)

Why study Phoenix?

• Geographically delimited– Resource constrained (water, power)

– Relatively simple boundary conditions

• Change is very rapid (“An acre an hour”)– Fastest growing county in U.S.

– Second fastest growing & fifth largest city

• Typical of arid urban west– High tech jobs, little mass transit, cheap land

What are the boundary conditions for modeling Phoenix?

• Spatial: city strictly limited by infrastructure

• Population: well documented, rapid growth

• Cultural: built along Hohokam canals (AD 1000)

• Topography/Geology: Basin and Range

• Water: canals, reservoirs, streams, groundwater

• Air: eastward flow, CO2 dome, “brown cloud”

• Land Use: desert agriculture urban

• Economy: mining/agriculture high tech/tourism

Urban fringe sharply defined

Photo courtesy of Ramon Arrowsmith

1912

Maricopa County land use

1934

Maricopa County land use

1955

Maricopa County land use

1975

Maricopa County land use

1995

Maricopa County land use

Remote sensing used for urban resource management

PhoenixADEQ

APS SRP

ADWR

ADHS

ADOC

Intel

Motorola ASU

NIEHS

DOE

ADOTDOT

NSF

EPA

NASA

NOAA

USGS

USFS

DOC

DOD

AIR

HEALTH

HUD

HOUSING

WATER

TRANSPORTATION

MANU-

FACTURING

CLIMATE

URBAN SECURITY

FORESTS

LAND USE

USDABLM

POWER

AGRICULTURE

ADOALincoln Institute

Biosphere

MAG

Greater Phoenix2100

Greater Phoenix 2100 Targets

• Physical Environment – Air (ADEQ) (EPA)– Water (ADWR, ADEQ) (EPA, USGS)– Climate (Biosphere) (NOAA)– Forests (ADOA) (USFS)– Agriculture (ADOA) (USDA)

• Social Environment– Health (ADHS) (NIH)– Housing (ADOC) (HUD)– Education (AZ DOEd) (USDOEd)

• Infrastructure – Land Use (ASLD, Lincoln) (DOI)– Power (APS, SRP) (DOE)– Transportation (ADOT, MAG) (USDOT)– Manufacturing (Intel, Motorola) (US DOC)– Urban Security (LANL, DARPA, Nat Grd)

Greater Phoenix 2100:Which Phoenix do we want?

• Coordinate federal/state/academic efforts

• Link with similar studies of other cities

• Answer questions people care about

• Provide objective information

• Build state-of-the-art forecasting tools

• Start of urban-LTER network across USA