greece macro focus march 12 2015

1

March 12 2015

Introduction

This note looks beyond the present state of negotiations with official creditors in the context of

the four month extension of Greecersquos Master Financial Assistance Facility Agreement (MFFA) that

was decided at February 20th

Eurogroup It even looks beyond the pending completion of the

program review to argue that the emphasis of any succeeding arrangement between the

Eurogroup the institutions and Greece should aim to boost the medium-term growth prospects of

the domestic economy This would in turn require a strong emphasis on structural reforms to

boost the non-price competitiveness of the Greek economy so as to facilitate the needed

transition to a new development model emphasizing increased investment and extroversion On

the other hand the absence of structural reforms along with a renewed focus on draconian fiscal

austerity and wage deflation would increase the chances of a self-defeating fiscal adjustment with

severe consequences for fiscal sustainability social cohesion and the long term growth prospects

of the Greek economy The rest of this document is structured as follows Part 1 provides as brief

assessment of the socioeconomic costs and benefits of the huge fiscal consolidation and wage

adjustment implemented in Greece in the context of the two consecutive bailout programs Part 2

explains why a strong emphasis on structural reforms is need to boost Greecersquos non-price

competitiveness and Part 3 concludes

Part 1 - Greecersquos fiscal consolidation and wage adjustment a brief cost-benefit analysis

11 The risk of self-defeating fiscal consolidation

The specter of self-defeating fiscal consolidations was initially raised in Gros (2011) where a simple

framework was utilized to show that fiscal austerity could increase the public debt ratio in the

short-run Separately Delong and Summers (2012) argue that in a depressed economy even a

small amount of hysteresis1 implies by simple arithmetic that expansionary (contractionary) fiscal

policy is likely to be self-financing (self-defeating) The authors clarify that their argument ldquodoes

not justify unsustainable fiscal policies nor does it justify delaying the passage of legislation to

make unsustainable fiscal policies sustainablerdquo Yet it is clear that the notion of hysteresis is of

particular relevance for fiscal consolidations undertaken during deep economic downturns where

multipliers are likely to be both high and persistent ie their recessionary effects stretch well

beyond the year that the fiscal adjustment is implemented

12 Cost and benefits of fiscal adjustment

Since 2010 Greece has implemented a massive fiscal adjustment that has been unprecedented by

recent historical standards (IMF 2013) As per the estimates presented in Greecersquos 2015 Budget

the ESA2010 General Government fiscal deficit has been reduced by more than 14ppts-of-GDP in

the past 5 years to c -13-of-GDP in 2014 Over the same period the General Government

primary balance improved by around 115ppts-of-GDP generating small surpluses in both 2013

1 Here ldquohysteresisrdquo is defined as the impact of the economic downturn on potential output

DISCLAIMER This report has been issued by

Eurobank Ergasias SA (ldquoEurobankrdquo)

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copy by acceptance thereof represents

and agrees that it will not distribute or

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and others associated with it may have

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or seek to perform investment banking

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investments discussed in this report

may be unsuitable for investors

depending on the specific investment

objectives and financial position The

information contained herein is for

informative purposes only and has been

obtained from sources believed to be

reliable but it has not been verified by

Eurobank The opinions expressed

herein may not necessarily coincide

with those of any member of Eurobank

No representation or warranty (express

or implied) is made as to the accuracy

completeness correctness timeliness or

fairness of the information or opinions

herein all of which are subject to

change without notice No

responsibility or liability whatsoever or

howsoever arising is accepted in

relation to the contents hereof by

Eurobank or any of its directors

officers or employees

Any articles studies comments etc

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Any unsigned notes are deemed to have

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Any articles studies comments etc

that are signed by members of the

editorial team express the personal

views of their author

Greece needs neither wage deflation nor more fiscal austerity what is needed is an emphasis on

structural reforms to boost (non-price) competitiveness

Dr Platon Monokroussos Group Chief Economist

Deputy General Manager pmonokrousoseurobankgr

March 12 2015

2

and 2014 after recording a deficit of c 105-of-GDP in 2009 In cyclically-adjusted terms the improvement in the primary

structural balance over the last five years has been even greater amounting to more than 19ppts-of-GDP Around two-thirds of this

adjustment has come from cuts in both discretionary and non-discretionary expenditure on eg social transfers public wages and

government intermediate consumption The remaining one-third has come from the revenue side mainly as a result of higher

income and wealth taxes (Figure I1 ndash Appendix I) In what follows we present a brief analysis on the potential costs and benefits

resulting from the aggressive fiscal consolidation and the significant wage adjustment implemented in recent years

121 Costs of fiscal consolidation exacerbation of domestic recession and rise in the debt ratio

It can be argued that the most severe costs of the aggressive front-loaded fiscal consolidation implemented in the last 5 years relate

to i) the exacerbation of the domestic recession and ii) the large increase in the public debt ratio since 2009 despite the

restructuring of the privately-held Greek debt (PSI) the debt buyback (DBB) operation implemented in 2012 and the debt relief

package agreed at the November 2012 Eurogroup (ie further maturity extensions and lower interest rates on EU loans provided

under the two consecutive bailout programs)

Fiscal consolidation impact on domestic GDP

This section examines the macroeconomic effects of the fiscal consolidation program implemented in the last 5 years To do so we

first assume three alternative values for the impact multiplier -15 ldquohigh multiplierrdquo -1 ldquointermediate multiplierrdquo and -05 ldquolow

multiplierrdquo The interpretation of these values is as follows for the ldquohigh multiplierrdquo value we assume that a fiscal contraction (ie

decrease in government expenditure or rise in tax revenue) of 1 euro that is implemented in a given year leads to a decrease in

nominal GDP by 15 euro in that year A similar interpretation applies to the other two impact multiplier values Furthermore in

order to incorporate multiplier persistence and hysteresis effects we follow Boussard et al (2012) and European Commission (2012

2013) and assume that fiscal multipliers follow the convex autoregressive decaying path analyzed in Appendix II As a next step we

utilize available fiscal data to get an appropriate metric for the thrust of fiscal austerity policies implemented in Greece over the

period 2010-2014 In the study presented herein this metric represents the annual change in the structural primary fiscal balance

based on the relevant data presented in the IMF Fiscal Monitor (October 2014)2 Table I1 of Appendix I portrays the macroeconomic

effects of the fiscal austerity policies implemented in Greece over the period 2010-2014 In more detail it shows the estimated GDP

impact under different scenarios regarding the value of the impact multiplier the degree of multiplier persistence and the existence

or not of hysteresis effects In Table I1 we actually present the results for two such scenarios which incorporate the ldquointermediaterdquo

and ldquolowrdquo impact multiplier values assumed in this study3 As it is implied by the results presented in the said table the aggressive

fiscal consolidation program implemented in Greece over the period 2010-2014 has indeed taken a heavy toll on domestic economic

activity

Fiscal consolidation impact on the debt ratio

In what follows we examine the ldquoparadoxrdquo of the sharp increase in the debt ratio since 2009 despite the aggressive fiscal

consolidation and the debt relief operations implemented over the last several years Greecersquos gross public debt ratio has increased

by c 48ppts-of-GDP between end-2009 and end-2014 to stand to an estimated 177-of-GDP at the end of that period As per the

most recent European Commission estimates (AMECO) the cumulative snow ball effect on Greek public debt4 over the

aforementioned period was c 70ppts-of-GDP which implies that the large increase in the debt ratio since 2009 was exclusively due

to the domestic economic recession This development comes as no major surprise especially taking into account the steep GDP

contraction over that period (denominator effect) and its impact on key fiscal metrics (numerator effect)5 The possibility of an initial

rise in the debt ratio following an aggressive fiscal adjustment constitutes a topic that has been analyzed to some extent in the

recent empirical literature6 In fact in a recent study we demonstrated that taking into account Greecersquos present debt-to-GDP ratio

the critical value of the fiscal multiplier that prevents a (contemporaneous) rise in the debt ratio following a fiscal adjustment

2 A well-known methodological issue in the empirical estimation of fiscal multipliers relates to the identification of purely exogenous fiscal shocks For the purpose of our analysis we assume that fiscal shock in year t is represented by the annual change in the structural general government primary balance (from year t-1 to year t)

3 Multipliers tend to be higher in deep economic downturns However some recent empirical studies have demonstrated that heightened fiscal

sustainability concerns tend to ceteris paribus reduce the value of the fiscal multiplier 4 The snowball effect denotes the automatic decrease (increase) in the debt ratio when nominal GDP growth in year t rises above (falls below) the

average effective interest rate in that year In mathematical terms the snowball effect is defined as the difference between the average effective interest rate and nominal growth 5 For instance in a deep recessionary period the government may face higher costs for unemployment benefits Furthermore a sharp decline in

economic activity may see the incomes of a higher number of tax payers falling below the tax-exempt threshold than in normal economic times 6 See eg European Commission (2012)

March 12 2015

3

implemented in a given year is around 0578

In other words a fiscal adjustment undertaken in year t would lead to an initial rise in

the debt ratio if the size of the fiscal multiplier in that year is equal or greater than 05 For Greece the existing literature and our

earlier empirical findings suggest that in deep economic contractions the size of the fiscal multiplier may well exceed the

aforementioned threshold and in certain instances be even higher than 19

122 Benefits of the fiscal consolidation program elimination of unsustainable fiscal deficits provision of unprecedented

amounts of official-sector financing and decline in debt rollover risks

Since its euro area entry Greece accumulated huge macroeconomic imbalances which could not be sustained in the new period

following the outbreak of the global financial crisis Against this backdrop the two consecutive adjustment programs agreed with

official creditors (in May 201o and in March 2012 respectively) have been instrumental in correcting huge deficits accumulated in

the countryrsquos fiscal and external accounts Moreover the provision of an unprecedented amount of official sector financing to

replenish collapsing State cash reserves and to inject much-needed liquidity (and fresh capital) in the domestic banking system has

prevented a much more dramatic deleveraging of the domestic economy which could instigate even more severe economic and

social costs In addition to all these the debt relief operations implemented in the context of the two adjustment programs (PSI

DBB maturing extensions and reductions in interest rates on EU loans) have greatly improved the serviceability of Greek public

debt Indeed over the coming 5-year period the average effective interest rate on Greek debt is expected to be not much higher

than 3 (ie remaining amongst the lowest in the euro area) while the overall annual interest expense is expected to average

between 4 and 45 of GDP compared to levels around 9 or 10 of GDP that would prevail in the absence of the

aforementioned operations

13 Wage adjustment

The implementation of the two consecutive adjustment programs has restored wage competitiveness with Greecersquos ULCs-based

REER having already declined to levels prevailing in mid-90s This has already benefited Greecersquos export performance as confirmed

by the results of a special econometric study summarized later in this document (see section 22) which documents a -026 long-

term elasticity of real Greek goods exports with respect to the real effective exchange rate Yet Greecersquos wage adjustment over the

last few years has probably been too aggressive and in any case was not accompanied by a similarly aggressive decline in domestic

consumer prices The latter is true despite the huge output gap and primarily reflects lingering rigiditiesexistence of oligopolistic

structures in domestic product and services markets Undoubtedly these developments have put additional pressure on disposable

incomes further exacerbating the domestic recession (Figures 1 amp 2)

Figure 1- Nominal compensation in manufacturing (EUR thousand)

0

10

20

30

40

50

60

19

95

19

96

19

97

19

98

19

99

20

00

20

01

20

02

20

03

20

04

20

05

20

06

20

07

20

08

20

09

20

10

20

11

20

12

20

13

Eurozone

Germany

Greece

7 The fiscal multiplier is defined as the ratio of a change in output to an exogenous change in the fiscal deficit with respect to their baselines

8 ldquoThe Challenge of Restoring Debt Sustainability in a Deep Economic Recession The case of Greecerdquo Platon Monokroussos GreeSE Paper No87 Hellenic Observatory Papers on Greece and Southeast Europe October 2014 httpwwwlseacukeuropeanInstituteresearchhellenicObservatoryCMS20pdfPublicationsGreeSEGreeSE-No87pdf 9 Monokroussos Platon and Thomakos Dimitris 2012 ldquoFiscal Multipliers in deep economic recessions and the case for a 2-year extension in Greecersquos austerity programmerdquo Economy amp Markets Global Markets Research Eurobank Ergasias SA Monokroussos Platon and Thomakos Dimitris 2013 ldquoGreek fiscal multipliers revisited ndash Government spending cuts vs tax hikes and the role of public investment expenditurerdquo Economy amp Markets Global Markets Research Eurobank Ergasias SA

March 12 2015

4

Figure 2- Nominal compensation in services (EUR thousand)

0

10

20

30

40

50

19

95

19

96

19

97

19

98

19

99

20

00

20

01

20

02

20

03

20

04

20

05

20

06

20

07

20

08

20

09

20

10

20

11

20

12

Eurozone

Germany

Greece

Source AMECO

Part 2 ndash Why a strong emphasis on structural reforms is needed to boost competitiveness

The material included in this section is based on the key findings of a special study we presented at a major Eurobank event that was

organized in Athens in November 2014 The study consisted of three main sections The first one analyzed the intertemporal

evolution of Greek exports of goods and services and examined Greecersquos export performance vis-agrave-vis its main trade partners The

second presented the results of an empirical study on the main drivers of Greek manufacturing and non-manufacturing goods

exports based on monthly data spanning the period Jan 1998 ndash Dec 2013 Finally the third section presented the main findings of a

poll we conducted among 222 (large and medium-sided) domestic exporters with the purpose of getting a better understanding of

the industryrsquos view as regards the main factors hindering export performance as well as current trends and prospects In what

follows we summarize some of the main results of the aforementioned study which highlight the need for a strong emphasis of

structural reforms in the domestic product and services markets with a view to further boost Greecersquos non-exports competitiveness

Additional analysis on the said results is provided in Appendix III at the end of this document

21 A brief overview of the progress made in recent years to improve Greecersquos competitiveness

Dynamic bounce in investment and improved export performance are needed to boost medium-term growth

Final consumption expenditure (private and public) continues to account for a disproportionately high share of Greek GDP (c

90 vs 75 in the euro area) This implies that a key prerequisite for a return to positive and sustainable growth rates going

forward is a stronger exports performance coupled with a notable recovery in domestic investment activity

The latter is especially relevant taking into account the still negative saving rate of households (-6 of average nominal

disposable income) and the need to maintain significant primary fiscal surpluses in the following years

The performance of Greek goods and services exports has improved in the last couple of years but continues to lag behind that

of other EU countries in the period following the outbreak of the global financial crisis As a percent of GDP Greek exports

remain significantly lower than the euro area average (c 33 vs 47)

Lingering structural problems hindering Greecersquos competiveness and export performancehellip

Greece remains a small and closed economy with limited gains in world market shares even following the huge wage

adjustment in the past several years that has reduced Greecersquos ULCs-based Real Effective Interest Rate (REER) to levels

prevailing before the EUR adoption

With the exception of maritime shipping and mineral fuels lubricants amp related material all other main categories of goods and

services exports have seen their share (as of total Greek exports) shrinking over the last two decades

The technological content of Greek manufacturing exports remains low relative to that of the main EU trading partners

March 12 2015

5

Greece features a competitive advantage in more traditional manufacturing sectors which to a large extent are of low

technological content and low added value

Greece lags behind its main EU trading partners in merchandise trade specialization

Greece continues to lag behind its main trading partners in business RampD expenditure and foreign direct investment

The average size of Greek manufacturing companies remains significantly lower relative to EU trading partners This hinders

the generation of economies of scale and prevents a better integration into global supply chains

hellipthought significant progress in several important areas has been attained in recent years

Significant progress has been made in recent years as regards the diversification of Greek exports in terms of structure and

geographical destination

The technological content of Greek exports has increased significantly over the past decade and a higher share of domestically-

produced manufacturing goods is now exported to high growth foreign economies

Greecersquos manufacturing exports have rebounded in the last couple of years

Significant progress has been attained in recent years in a number of international indicators for Greecersquos competitiveness

governance as well as the functioning of the domestic business and regulatory environment However additional

improvements are needed to bridge the gap with the rest of the Eurozone

22 Summary of results of empirical study on the main drivers of Greek exports

Data and methodology The study utilizes monthly-frequency time-series data for the value of Greek goods exports (SITC classification) The source of the

data is ELSTAT and the period under examination is January 1998-December 2013 The data have been seasonally adjusted and

deflated by the producer price index for exports Initially the series were examined for their statistical properties so as to determine

the appropriate modeling strategy Then a number of model specifications were created to explain the volatility of the real value of

exports based on a number of explanatory variables

The explanatory variables include among others

alternative proxies of foreign demand eg weighted GDP volume index of 37 trading partners EU-28 merchandise import

demand index OECD merchandise import demand index OECD-Europe industrial production index 37 trading partner

merchandise import demand index (EU28 Australia Canada Japan Mexico N Zealand Norway Switzerland Turkey US)

alternative proxies for price competitiveness eg real effective exchange rate (REER) indices for Greece based on relative

ULCs and consumer price inflation rates against different trade partner groups

more than 20 non-price competiveness indicators measuring various important aspects of the domestic business institutional

and regulatory environment such as technological content of Greek exports degree of market size concentration and average

exporting firm size in the Greek manufacturing sector degree of Greek exports concentration (Herfindahl ndash Hirschman

concentration index) relative performance (vs main trade partners) as regards Business RampD and FDI ease in starting a

business ease in getting credit corporate tax burden and ease of paying taxes enforcement of contracts quality of regulatory

environment etc

Empirical results Figure 1 below provides a graphical depiction of the estimated long-term elasticities of Greek goods exports with respect to external

demand and price competitiveness indicators Another important result of our study is the statistical significance of some of the

non-price competitiveness indicators under examination when they enter (either individually or jointly) as explanatory variables

March 12 2015

6

along with foreign demand and the real effective exchange rate in a number of model specifications (Full set of empirical results is

available upon request)

Figure 1 - Long-term effect of external demand and REER on Greecersquos real goods exports

Estimated long-term elasticities ( Increasedecrease of exports for every 1 increasedecrease of explanatory variables

095

288

088

-026

-188

-028

-80 -60 -40 -20 00 20 40 60 80 100 120

FOOD amp LIVE ANIMALS (SITC 0)

BEVERAGES amp TOBACCO (SITC 1)

CRUDE MATERIALS INEDIBLE EXCEPT FUEL (SITC 2)

MINERAL FUELS LUBRICANTS amp RELATED MATERIALS(SITC 3)

ANIMAL amp VEGETABLE OILS FATS amp WAXES (SITC 4)

CHEMICALS amp RELATED PRODUCTS NES (SITC 5)

MANUFACTURED GOODS CLASSIFIED CHIEFLY BYMATERIAL (SITC 6)

MACHINERY amp TRANSPORT EQUIPMENT (SITC 7)

MISCELLANEOUS MANUFACTURED ARTICLES (SITC 8)

COMMODITIES AND TRANSACTIONS NOT CLASSIFIEDELSEWHERE (SITC 9)

ALL MANUFACTURING SECTORS (SITC 5-8)

ALL SECTORS EXCLUDING MANUFACTURING (SITC 0-4 amp9)

ALL SECTORS EXCLUDING MINERAL FUELS (SITC 0-9EXCL 3)

Long-term impact of external demand Long-term impact of the real effective exchange rate

Source ELSTAT Eurobank Economic Research Explanatory note The estimated long-term elasticities presented in Figure 1 are based on the following proxies External demand weighted GDP volume index of 37 trading partners on the basis of share of exports of Greece towards respective markets Real effective exchange rate of Greece against 138 trading partners based on the relevant CPI (total economy) Real effective exchange rate of Greece against 30 trading partners on the basis of relative cost per unit of output (business sector)

Part 3 - Concluding remarks

The two consecutive adjustment programs implemented in Greece over the last 5 years have been instrumental in correcting huge

fiscal imbalances accumulated in the period leading to the global financial crisis and in improving the serviceability of Greek public

debt The concomitant provision of an unprecedented amount of official-sector financing has also prevented a more aggressive

deleveraging in the domestic economy that could further exacerbate the domestic recession However the horizontal and front-

loaded nature of the applied fiscal adjustment conspired with an inadequate degree of focus on structural reforms to instigate

sizeable macroeconomic and social costs With domestic authorities having already managed to stabilized the fiscal balance (and to

even generate small primary surpluses in 2013 and 2014) any succeeding arrangement agreed with official lenders should aim to

maintain the sizeable improvement attained in Greecersquos fiscal account in recent years Yet as we have argued in a in one of our

recent research notes10

the provision of additional debt relief (OSI) coupled with a certain relaxation of the primary fiscal target and

an increased emphasis on structural reforms could go a long way towards facilitating a return to positive and sustained economic

growth rates

10 ldquoWhy a relaxation of the primary fiscal target may prove to be a self-financing policy shiftrdquo Greece Macro Monitor Eurobank Economic Research

February 26 2015 httpwwweurobankgrUploadsReportsGREECEMACROFOCUSFebruary262015pdf

March 12 2015

7

Appendix I

Figure and Table for Part I

Figure I 1 - Structure of Greecersquos fiscal adjustment in 2008-2013

-1

0

1

2

3

4

-1

0

1

2

3

4

Subs

idie

s

Oth

er c

urre

nttr

ansf

ers

Cap

ital

tran

sfer

s

Gro

ss c

apit

alfo

rmat

ion

Inte

rest

Com

pens

atio

n of

empl

oyee

s

Inte

rmed

iate

cons

umpt

ion

Soci

al b

enef

its

Fiscal Adjustment in Expenditures 2008-13 (percent of potential GDP)

-1

0

1

2

3

4

-1

0

1

2

3

4

Prop

erty

inco

me

Oth

er cu

rren

ttr

ansf

ers

Soci

alco

ntrib

utio

ns

Capi

tal t

rans

fers

Sale

s

Prod

uctio

nampim

port

taxe

s

Inco

meamp

wea

lthta

xes

Fiscal Adjustment in Revenues 2008-13 (percent of potential GDP)

Source EC IMF Eurobank Research

Table I1 - Estimated impact of fiscal austerity on nominal GDP ceteris paribus basis (in EURbn)

2010 2011 2012 2013 2014

Low multiplierlow persistenceno hysteresis -84 -93 -81 -66 -36

Intermediate multiplierlow persistenceno

hysteresis-168 -186 -163 -132 -72

Memorandum items

Annual change in nominal GDP (EURbn) -107 -188 -137 -120 -35

Annual change in structural primary balance in ppts-

of-GDP + sign for improvement 74 49 36 28 03

Annual change in structural primary balance in

EURbn + sign for improvement 168 102 70 51 05

Source IMF (Oct 2014) ELSTAT Eurobank Research

March 12 2015

8

Appendix II

Impact multipliers multiplier persistence amp hysteresis assumptions (Part I)

In order to incorporate multiplier persistence in our simulation exercise we follow Boussard et al (2012) and European Commission

(2012 2013) and assume that fiscal multipliers follow the following convex autoregressive decay path11

mti = (m1 ndash β)αi-t

+ β

where m1 is the impact (ie first year) multiplier mtI is the fiscal multiplier applying in year i following a permanent fiscal shock in

year t 0 ltα lt 1 and β is the long-run impulse response of GDP to fiscal consolidation Α negative value of β indicates that

ldquohysteresisrdquo effects are present (see eg de Long and Summers 2012) A positive one represents a situation in which a consolidation

today boosts long term growth by eg reducing the interest rate and by lessening the crowding out on private investment

The figure below depicts the decaying path of the fiscal multiplier assumed in the simulation exercise presented in this study Here

the initial value of the (impact) multiplier is assumed to take one of the following three values -15 ldquohigh multiplierrdquo -10

ldquointermediate multiplierrdquo and -05 ldquolow multiplierrdquo Moreover ldquohigh persistencerdquo corresponds to the following parameter value

α=ο8 and ldquolow persistencerdquo corresponds to α=ο5 Finally for the presence of ldquohysteresisrdquo effects we assume β=-02 while the case

of β=0 corresponds to ldquono hysteresisrdquo effects

Figure Response of GDP to one-off cyclical adjustment

-16

-14

-12

-10

-08

-06

-04

-02

00

1 3 5 7 9 11 13 15 17 19 21High multiplier highpersistencehysteresis

High multiplier high persistence nohysteresis

High multiplier low persistence nohysteresis

Intermediate multiplier highpersistence hysteresis

Intermediate multiplier highpersistence no hysteresis

Intermediate multiplier lowpersistence no hysteresis

Low multiplierlow persistence nohysteresis

Source EC (September 2013) Eurobank Global Markets Research

Note Response of GDP in years t=1hellip21 per one unit cut in cyclically adjusted primary balance in year t=1 Assuming that the same

logic applies then a unit increase in the cyclically adjusted primary balance in year t=1 would lead to a GDP response that could be

portrayed by inverting the above figure

11 This decay function reproduces relatively well the shape of the impulse-response function by typical DSGE models for most of the permanents fiscal shocks

March 12 2015

9

Appendix III - Why competitiveness and extroversion constitute the cornerstones of a new economic development model for

Greece

Continuing fiscal prudence and domestic household dissaving suggest long-term growth must necessarily come from higher exports

and investments (figures 1amp2)

Figure 1 ndash Final consumption expenditure continues to represent a disproportionally high share of Greek GDP investment spending

(as of GDP) has collapsed due to the domestic recession and currently stands well below the respective euro area average

900

11500

200

400

600

800

1000

1200

19

98

19

99

20

00

20

01

20

02

20

03

20

04

20

05

20

06

20

07

20

08

20

09

20

10

20

11

20

12

20

13

20

14(f

)

Final consumption expenditure ( GDP)

Gross fixed capital formation ( GDP)

Greece

Euro area (annual average = 766)

Euro area (average annual average = 216)

Greece

Figure 2 ndash Greek exports of goods and services (as of GDP) remain significantly lower than the respective euro area average

325

467

0

10

20

30

40

50

19

93

19

94

19

95

19

96

19

97

19

98

19

99

20

00

20

01

20

02

20

03

20

04

20

05

20

06

20

07

20

08

20

09

20

10

20

11

20

12

20

13

20

14

20

15

20

16

Greece Euro area

Exports of goods amp services ( GDP)

Source (Figures 1 amp 2) EMECO Eurobank Economic Research

Greecersquos exports performance has broadly lagged behind that of other euro area countries throughout the crisis periodhellip

Figure 3 ndash Exports of goods amp services in 2010 prices (2008=100)

70

80

90

100

110

120

130

140

150

2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016

Ireland

Greece

Spain

Latvia

Portugal

Source (Figure 3) EMECO Eurobank Economic Research

March 12 2015

10

hellipdespite the huge adjustment in wages and to a lesser extent in relative inflation rates vis a vis main trading partners

Figure 4 ndash Greecersquos REER relative to 37 trading partners (cumulative annual change)

-50

00

50

100

150

200

250

20

01

20

02

20

03

20

04

20

05

20

06

20

07

20

08

20

09

20

10

20

11

20

12

20

13

based on relative inflation rates based on relative ULCs

Figure 5 ndash Nominal wage expenditure per employee (annual change)

-100

-50

00

50

100

150

19

98

19

99

20

00

20

01

20

02

20

03

20

04

20

05

20

06

20

07

20

08

20

09

20

10

20

11

20

12

20

13

20

14

Euro area Greece


Greece remains a small closed economy with limited gains in world market shares over the last two decades

Figure 6 ndash Average ratio of Greek exports of goods amp services to GDP (1995-2013)

(Bold columns indicate size of economy smaller than the median)

0

20

40

60

80

100

120

140

160

Lhellip

IE Mhellip

Shellip

Bhellip

Ehellip

Hhellip

Nhellip

Chellip

SI Lhellip

Bhellip

Ahellip

Lhellip

Dhellip

Chellip

Chellip

Shellip

Mhellip

Khellip

Nhellip

IS FI Hhellip

Mhellip

Dhellip

Phellip

Chellip

Rhellip

Phellip

Rhellip

Nhellip

Mhellip

Ghellip

Ehellip

IT Fhellip

Thellip

Ghellip

Ahellip

Jhellip

Uhellip

230

Figure 7 ndash Greece exports as of world imports

00

02

04

06

08

10

12

14

16

19

95

19

96

19

97

19

98

19

99

20

00

20

01

20

02

20

03

20

04

20

05

20

06

20

07

20

08

20

09

20

10

20

11

20

12

20

13

Services

Goods

Goods ampServices

Source (Figures 6 amp 7) OECD UNCTAD Eurobank Economic Research

March 12 2015

11

Declining share of manufacturing exports and increasing share of shipping services exports (as of total respective Greek

exports)

Total value of exports in 2013 (USD billions)

Goods = 2757bn Services = 279bn

Figure 8 ndash Goods exports - main categories as of total

00

100

200

300

400

500

Fo

od

amp liv

ea

nim

als

Be

ve

rag

es amp

tob

acco

Cru

de

ma

teri

als

exce

pt

fue

ls

Min

era

l fu

els

lu

brica

nts

ampre

late

d m

ate

ria

ls

An

ima

l amp

ve

ge

tab

le o

ils

fats

and

wa

xe

s

Ch

em

ica

ls amp

rela

ted

pro

du

cts

(ne

s)

Ma

nu

factu

red

go

od

s c

lassifie

dch

iefly b

y m

ate

ria

l

Ma

ch

ine

ry a

nd

tra

nsp

ort

atio

ne

qu

ipm

en

t

Mic

hella

neo

us

ma

nufa

ctu

rin

ga

rtic

les Oth

er

1998 2013

Manufacturing

Figure 9 ndash Services exports - main categories as of total

00

100

200

300

400

500

600

Tra

nspo

rtation

(ma

inly

sh

ippin

g)

Tra

vel (m

ain

lyto

urism

)

Co

mm

unic

atio

ns

Κατασκευαστικές

Insu

rance

Mo

neta

ry

IT s

erv

ices

Ro

ya

ltie

s

Oth

er

busin

ess

serv

ices

1998

2013

Source (Figures 8 amp 9) ELSTAT BoG Eurobank Economic Research

The technological content of Greek manufacturing exports remains low relative the main EU trading partners

Figure 10 ndash Production of manufacturing goods of high amp medium-high technological content

( total manufacturing output)

00

100

200

300

400

500

600

700

2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013

ΕU-27

Germany

Greece

Source (Figure 10) UNCTAD Eurobank Economic Research

March 12 2015

12


technological content

Figure 11 ndash Greece - Revealed Comparative Advantage12

(SITC Rev4)

(A comparative advantage is ldquorevealedrdquo if RCAgt1)

0

2

4

6

8

10

0 -

Fo

od

11

- B

eve

rages

12

- T

oba

cco

65

- T

extile

yarn

fa

brics

and

rela

ted

pro

ducts

84

- A

rtic

les o

fap

pare

l an

d c

loth

ing

accesso

ries

85

- F

ootw

ear

61

- L

ea

the

r le

ath

er

ma

nufa

ctu

res

63

- C

ork

an

d w

ood

ma

nufa

ctu

res

64

- P

aper

pa

perb

oard

and

rela

ted

pro

ducts

33

- P

etr

ole

um

pe

trole

um

pro

du

cts

an

d r

ela

ted m

ate

rials

5 -

Chem

icals

and

rela

ted

pro

ducts

54

- M

edic

inal an

dph

arm

ace

utica

lpro

ducts

62

- R

ub

ber

ma

nufa

ctu

res

2008

2013

0

1

2

3

4

5

6

66

- N

on

-me

talli

cm

ine

ral

ma

nufa

ctu

res

ne

s

69

- M

an

ufa

ctu

res o

fm

eta

ls

ne

s

2 -

Cru

de

ma

teria

ls

ine

dib

le

exce

pt

fue

ls

3 -

Min

era

l fu

els

lu

brica

nts

and

rela

ted

ma

teria

ls

4 -

An

ima

l a

nd

ve

ge

tab

le o

ils

fats

an

d w

axe

s

6 -

Ma

nu

factu

red

go

od

s c

lassifie

dch

iefly b

y m

ate

ria

l

7 -

Ma

ch

inery

an

dtr

an

sp

ort

eq

uip

me

nt

8 -

Mis

ce

llan

eou

sm

an

ufa

ctu

red

art

icle

s

82

- F

urn

itu

re

2008

2013

Source (Figure 11) UNCOMTRADE Eurobank Economic Research

Greece lags its main EU trading partners in merchandise trade specialization

Figure 12 ndash Merchandise trade specialization index13

(Greece vs EU-27)

Greece

-10

-08

-06

-04

-02

00

Ma

nufa

ctu

red

goo

ds

(SIT

C 5

to

8 less 6

67

an

d 6

8)

Ch

em

ica

l p

rodu

cts

(SIT

C 5

)

Ma

ch

ine

ry a

nd

tra

nsp

ort

eq

uip

me

nt

(SIT

C 7

)

Ele

ctr

on

ic e

xclu

din

gp

art

s a

nd

co

mp

on

en

ts (

SIT

C7

51

+ 7

52

+ 7

61

+7

62

+ 7

63

+ 7

75

)

Oth

er

man

ufa

ctu

red

go

ods (

SIT

C 6

+ 8

less 6

67 a

nd

68)

1995 2012

12 The Revealed Comparative Advantage Index is contracted as the ratio of a productrsquos share of exports (or category of exports) as of a countryrsquos total exports to the corresponding ratio of a trading partner or group of trading partners A comparative advantage is ldquorevealedrdquo if RCAgt1

13 The Merchandise Trade Specialization index compares the net flow of goods or groups of tradable goods (exports minus imports) to the total flow of the respective product or tradable product group (exports plus imports) The range of values is between -1 and 1 A positive value indicates that an economy has net exports (hence it specializes in the production of that specific product) and a negative value means that an economy imports more than it exports (net consumption)

March 12 2015

13

Figure 12 continued ndash Merchandise trade specialization index14

(Greece vs EU-27)

EU-27

-02

-02

-01

-01

00

01

01

02M

anufa

ctu

red

goo

ds

(SIT

C 5

to

8 less 6

67

an

d 6

8)

Ch

em

ica

l p

rodu

cts

(SIT

C 5

)

Ma

ch

inery

and

tran

sp

ort

eq

uip

me

nt

(SIT

C 7

)

Ele

ctr

on

ic e

xclu

din

gpa

rts a

nd

com

pone

nts

(S

ITC

75

1 +

75

2 +

76

1 +

76

2 +

76

3 +

77

5)

Oth

er

man

ufa

ctu

red

go

ods (

SIT

C 6

+ 8

less 6

67 a

nd

68)

1995 2012


Greece significant underperformance in RampD expenditure and foreign direct investment relative to main trading partners

Figure 13 ndash Inward and outward foreign direct investment stock annual ( GDP)

0

10

20

30

40

50

60

1991 1992 1993 1994 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013

Greece

World

EU-28

Figure 14 ndash Business RampD expenditure ( GDP)

00

50

100

150

200

250

1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013

Greek RampD as German RampD

Greek RampD as EU-27 RampD

Source (Figures 13 amp 14) UNCTAD Eurostat Eurobank Economic Research

14 The Merchandise Trade Specialization index compares the net flow of goods or group of tradable goods (exports minus imports) to the total flow of the respective product or tradable product group (exports plus imports) The range of values is between -1 and 1 A positive value indicates that the economy has net exports (hence it specializes in the production of that specific product) and a negative value indicates that the economy imports more than it exports (net consumption)

March 12 2015

14

However not all trends are problematic Significant progress has been made in recent years in relation to the diversification of

Greek exports in terms of structure and geographical destination

Figure 15 ndash Greek exports of goods towards main geographical destinations (bn US dollars)

0

5

10

15

20

25

30

35

40

201320122011201020092008200720062005200420032002200120001999199819971996

EU countries exclEuro Area

Non EU Countries

Euro Area

Figure 16 ndash Share of exports of major branches of Greek manufacturing industry ( of total)

A food beverage and tobacco I other and plastic mineral products

B textiles and textile products J basic metals and fabricated metal products

C leather and leather products K machinery and equipment nor elsewhere classified

D wood and wood products L electrical and optical equipment

E paper and paper products M transport equipment

G chemicals and chemical products N not elesewhere classified

H rubber and plastic products

Source (Figures 15 amp 16) OECD IMF Eurobank Economic Research

March 12 2015

15

Increase in exports of the Greek manufacturing industry to rapidly developing economies in recent years albeit at a slightly lesser

extent than the rest of the Eurozone

Figure 17 ndash Greecersquos manufacturing industry exports to the 27 fastest growing economies as of total exports of the Greek

manufacturing industry15

00

20

40

60

80

100

120

140

160

180

200

1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013

To the extent that the recent increase in the concentration of Greek exports enhances the degree of market power in export

businesses this process must be continued and intensified through eg mergers amp acquisitions in key manufacturing sectors

Figure 18 - Concentration index of Greek merchandise exports to EU27 and the euro area

(Herfindahl-Hirschmann bilateral concentration index)16

008

009

010

011

012

013

014

015

1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012

Greece - Eurozone

Greece - ΕU27

Source (Figures 17 amp 18) UNCTAD Eurobank Economic Research

Visible signs of recovery in domestic industrial and manufacturing activity

Figure 19 - Greecersquos Purchasing Managerrsquos Index

488 Oct

35

40

45

50

55

60

Ja

n-0

5

Ju

n-0

5

No

v-0

5

Ap

r-0

6

Se

p-0

6

Fe

b-0

7

Ju

l-0

7

De

c-0

7

Ma

y-0

8

Oct-

08

Ma

r-0

9

Au

g-0

9

Ja

n-1

0

Ju

n-1

0

No

v-1

0

Ap

r-1

1

Se

p-1

1

Fe

b-1

2

Ju

l-1

2

De

c-1

2

Ma

y-1

3

Oct-

13

Ma

r-1

4

Au

g-1

4

Expansion

Contraction

15 Fastest growing economies are defined here as those that featured average annual GDP growth of more than 4 over the last 10 years and nominal GDP higher than $100bn in 2013

16 The Herfindahl-Hirschmann index measures market concentration It indicates whether the exports of a country or group of countries are concentrated on certain products or alternatively distributed more homogeneously among a range of products It takes values from 0 (zero concentration) to 1 (maximum concentration)

March 12 2015

16

Figure 20 ndash Business expectations in manufacturing

-50

-40

-30

-20

-10

0

10

20

Ap

r-9

7

De

c-9

7

Au

g-9

8

Ap

r-9

9

De

c-9

9

Au

g-0

0

Ap

r-0

1

De

c-0

1

Au

g-0

2

Ap

r-0

3

De

c-0

3

Au

g-0

4

Apr-

05

De

c-0

5

Au

g-0

6

Ap

r-0

7

De

c-0

7

Au

g-0

8

Ap

r-0

9

De

c-0

9

Au

g-1

0

Apr-

11

De

c-1

1

Au

g-1

2

Ap

r-1

3

De

c-1

3

Au

g-1

4

Greece Eurozone

Source (Figures 19 amp 20) EC Markit Eurobank Economic Research

Greece - Significant progress in a number of international indicators for competitiveness the domestic business environment and

governance although further improvement is needed to bridge the gap with the rest of the Eurozone

Figure 21 ndash Greece - World Bank Doing Business Report Key indicators

250

350

450

550

650

750

850

950

2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015

EU-17 (mean)

Greece

min-all countries

max-all countries

Figure 22 ndash OECD Sustainable Governance indicators 2014

0

1

2

3

4

5

6

7

8

9

Ele

cto

ral

Pro

ce

ss

Acce

ss to

Info

rmation

Civ

il rig

hts

Rule

of L

aw

Econo

mic

polic

ies

So

cia

lS

usta

ina

bili

ty

En

vir

onm

en

tal

Su

sta

ina

bili

ty

Executive

Cap

acity

Executive

Acco

un

tabili

ty

Greece Euro area

Figure 23 ndash Greece World Bank Doing Business Report Key Indicators

0

20

40

60

80

100

Sta

rtin

g a

Bu

sin

ess

Dea

ling w

ith

Con

str

uction

Pe

rmits

Reg

iste

rin

gP

rope

rty

Ge

ttin

g C

red

it

Pro

tectin

gIn

ve

sto

rs

Pa

yin

g T

axe

s

Tra

din

g A

cro

ss

Bo

rde

rs

En

forc

ing

Co

ntr

acts

Reso

lvin

gIn

so

lve

ncy

DB 2005 DB 2015

March 12 2015

17

Figure 24ndash WEF Global Competitiveness Indicator 2014 Rankings

020406080

100120140160

Institu

tio

ns

Infr

astr

uctu

re

Ma

cro

eco

no

mic

en

vir

onm

ent

He

alth

an

dp

rim

ary

ed

uca

tio

n

Hig

he

re

du

ca

tio

n a

nd

tra

inin

g

Go

od

s m

ark

et

eff

icie

ncy

La

bor

ma

rke

te

ffic

ien

cy

Fin

ancia

l m

ark

et

de

ve

lop

me

nt

Te

ch

no

log

ica

lre

ad

ine

ss

Ma

rke

t siz

e

Bu

sin

ess

so

ph

istica

tio

n

Inn

ova

tio

n

Greece Euro area(smallest number denotes better position)

March 12 2015

18

Eurobank Global Markets Research

Eurobank Ergasias SA 8 Othonos Str 105 57 Athens tel +30 210 33 37 000 fax +30 210 33 37 190 email EurobankGlobalMarketsResearcheurobankgr

Eurobank Global Markets Research More research editions available at htppwwweurobankgrresearch

Greece Macro Monitor Periodic overview of key macro amp market developments in Greece

Daily overview of global markets amp the SEE region

Daily overview of key developments in global markets amp the SEE region

South East Europe Bi-Monthly

Monthly overview of economic amp market developments in the SEE region

Global Markets amp SEE themes Special focus reports on Global Markets amp the SEE region

Subscribe electronically at htppwwweurobankgrresearch Follow us on twitter httpstwittercomEurobank Group

Global Markets Research Team


pmonokrousoseurobankgr + 30 210 37 18 903

Paraskevi Petropoulou G10 Markets Analyst

ppetropouloueurobankgr + 30 210 37 18 991

Galatia Phoka Emerging Markets Analyst

gphokaeurobankgr + 30 210 37 18 922

Anna Dimitriadou Economist

andimitriadoueurobankgr + 30 210 37 18 793

Global Markets Sales

Nikos Laios Head of Treasury Sales

nlaioseurobankgr + 30 210 37 18 910

Alexandra Papathanasiou Head of Institutional Sales

apapathanasioueurobankgr +30 210 37 18 996

John Seimenis Head of Corporate Sales

yseimeniseurobankgr +30 210 37 18 909

Achilleas Stogioglou Head of Private Banking Sales

astogiogloueurobankgr +30 210 37 18 904

George Petrogiannis Head of Shipping Sales

gpetrogianniseurobankgr +30 210 37 18 915

Vassilis Gioulbaxiotis Head International Sales

vgioulbaxiotiseurobankgr +30 210 3718995

March 12 2015

2

and 2014 after recording a deficit of c 105-of-GDP in 2009 In cyclically-adjusted terms the improvement in the primary

structural balance over the last five years has been even greater amounting to more than 19ppts-of-GDP Around two-thirds of this

adjustment has come from cuts in both discretionary and non-discretionary expenditure on eg social transfers public wages and

government intermediate consumption The remaining one-third has come from the revenue side mainly as a result of higher

income and wealth taxes (Figure I1 ndash Appendix I) In what follows we present a brief analysis on the potential costs and benefits

resulting from the aggressive fiscal consolidation and the significant wage adjustment implemented in recent years

121 Costs of fiscal consolidation exacerbation of domestic recession and rise in the debt ratio

It can be argued that the most severe costs of the aggressive front-loaded fiscal consolidation implemented in the last 5 years relate

to i) the exacerbation of the domestic recession and ii) the large increase in the public debt ratio since 2009 despite the

restructuring of the privately-held Greek debt (PSI) the debt buyback (DBB) operation implemented in 2012 and the debt relief

package agreed at the November 2012 Eurogroup (ie further maturity extensions and lower interest rates on EU loans provided

under the two consecutive bailout programs)

Fiscal consolidation impact on domestic GDP

This section examines the macroeconomic effects of the fiscal consolidation program implemented in the last 5 years To do so we

first assume three alternative values for the impact multiplier -15 ldquohigh multiplierrdquo -1 ldquointermediate multiplierrdquo and -05 ldquolow

multiplierrdquo The interpretation of these values is as follows for the ldquohigh multiplierrdquo value we assume that a fiscal contraction (ie

decrease in government expenditure or rise in tax revenue) of 1 euro that is implemented in a given year leads to a decrease in

nominal GDP by 15 euro in that year A similar interpretation applies to the other two impact multiplier values Furthermore in

order to incorporate multiplier persistence and hysteresis effects we follow Boussard et al (2012) and European Commission (2012

2013) and assume that fiscal multipliers follow the convex autoregressive decaying path analyzed in Appendix II As a next step we

utilize available fiscal data to get an appropriate metric for the thrust of fiscal austerity policies implemented in Greece over the

period 2010-2014 In the study presented herein this metric represents the annual change in the structural primary fiscal balance

based on the relevant data presented in the IMF Fiscal Monitor (October 2014)2 Table I1 of Appendix I portrays the macroeconomic

effects of the fiscal austerity policies implemented in Greece over the period 2010-2014 In more detail it shows the estimated GDP

impact under different scenarios regarding the value of the impact multiplier the degree of multiplier persistence and the existence

or not of hysteresis effects In Table I1 we actually present the results for two such scenarios which incorporate the ldquointermediaterdquo

and ldquolowrdquo impact multiplier values assumed in this study3 As it is implied by the results presented in the said table the aggressive

fiscal consolidation program implemented in Greece over the period 2010-2014 has indeed taken a heavy toll on domestic economic

activity

Fiscal consolidation impact on the debt ratio

In what follows we examine the ldquoparadoxrdquo of the sharp increase in the debt ratio since 2009 despite the aggressive fiscal

consolidation and the debt relief operations implemented over the last several years Greecersquos gross public debt ratio has increased

by c 48ppts-of-GDP between end-2009 and end-2014 to stand to an estimated 177-of-GDP at the end of that period As per the

most recent European Commission estimates (AMECO) the cumulative snow ball effect on Greek public debt4 over the

aforementioned period was c 70ppts-of-GDP which implies that the large increase in the debt ratio since 2009 was exclusively due

to the domestic economic recession This development comes as no major surprise especially taking into account the steep GDP

contraction over that period (denominator effect) and its impact on key fiscal metrics (numerator effect)5 The possibility of an initial

rise in the debt ratio following an aggressive fiscal adjustment constitutes a topic that has been analyzed to some extent in the

recent empirical literature6 In fact in a recent study we demonstrated that taking into account Greecersquos present debt-to-GDP ratio

the critical value of the fiscal multiplier that prevents a (contemporaneous) rise in the debt ratio following a fiscal adjustment

2 A well-known methodological issue in the empirical estimation of fiscal multipliers relates to the identification of purely exogenous fiscal shocks For the purpose of our analysis we assume that fiscal shock in year t is represented by the annual change in the structural general government primary balance (from year t-1 to year t)

3 Multipliers tend to be higher in deep economic downturns However some recent empirical studies have demonstrated that heightened fiscal

sustainability concerns tend to ceteris paribus reduce the value of the fiscal multiplier 4 The snowball effect denotes the automatic decrease (increase) in the debt ratio when nominal GDP growth in year t rises above (falls below) the

average effective interest rate in that year In mathematical terms the snowball effect is defined as the difference between the average effective interest rate and nominal growth 5 For instance in a deep recessionary period the government may face higher costs for unemployment benefits Furthermore a sharp decline in

economic activity may see the incomes of a higher number of tax payers falling below the tax-exempt threshold than in normal economic times 6 See eg European Commission (2012)

March 12 2015

3




















13 Wage adjustment










0

10

20

30

40

50

60

19

95

19

96

19

97

19

98

19

99

20

00

20

01

20

02

20

03

20

04

20

05

20

06

20

07

20

08

20

09

20

10

20

11

20

12

20

13

Eurozone

Germany

Greece



March 12 2015

4


0

10

20

30

40

50

19

95

19

96

19

97

19

98

19

99

20

00

20

01

20

02

20

03

20

04

20

05

20

06

20

07

20

08

20

09

20

10

20

11

20

12

Eurozone

Germany

Greece

Source AMECO





























March 12 2015

5

































environment etc




March 12 2015

6





095

288

088

-026

-188

-028

-80 -60 -40 -20 00 20 40 60 80 100 120




























growth rates



March 12 2015

7

Appendix I



-1

0

1

2

3

4

-1

0

1

2

3

4

Subs

idie

s

Oth

er c

urre

nttr

ansf

ers

Cap

ital

tran

sfer

s

Gro

ss c

apit

alfo

rmat

ion

Inte

rest

Com

pens

atio

n of

empl

oyee

s

Inte

rmed

iate

cons

umpt

ion

Soci

al b

enef

its


-1

0

1

2

3

4

-1

0

1

2

3

4

Prop

erty

inco

me

Oth

er cu

rren

ttr

ansf

ers

Soci

alco

ntrib

utio

ns

Capi

tal t

rans

fers

Sale

s

Prod

uctio

nampim

port

taxe

s

Inco

meamp

wea

lthta

xes




2010 2011 2012 2013 2014



hysteresis-168 -186 -163 -132 -72

Memorandum items







March 12 2015

8

Appendix II





+ β











-16

-14

-12

-10

-08

-06

-04

-02

00













March 12 2015

9


Greece





900

11500

200

400

600

800

1000

1200

19

98

19

99

20

00

20

01

20

02

20

03

20

04

20

05

20

06

20

07

20

08

20

09

20

10

20

11

20

12

20

13

20

14(f

)



Greece



Greece


325

467

0

10

20

30

40

50

19

93

19

94

19

95

19

96

19

97

19

98

19

99

20

00

20

01

20

02

20

03

20

04

20

05

20

06

20

07

20

08

20

09

20

10

20

11

20

12

20

13

20

14

20

15

20

16

Greece Euro area





70

80

90

100

110

120

130

140

150

2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016

Ireland

Greece

Spain

Latvia

Portugal


March 12 2015

10



-50

00

50

100

150

200

250

20

01

20

02

20

03

20

04

20

05

20

06

20

07

20

08

20

09

20

10

20

11

20

12

20

13



-100

-50

00

50

100

150

19

98

19

99

20

00

20

01

20

02

20

03

20

04

20

05

20

06

20

07

20

08

20

09

20

10

20

11

20

12

20

13

20

14

Euro area Greece





0

20

40

60

80

100

120

140

160

Lhellip

IE Mhellip

Shellip

Bhellip

Ehellip

Hhellip

Nhellip

Chellip

SI Lhellip

Bhellip

Ahellip

Lhellip

Dhellip

Chellip

Chellip

Shellip

Mhellip

Khellip

Nhellip

IS FI Hhellip

Mhellip

Dhellip

Phellip

Chellip

Rhellip

Phellip

Rhellip

Nhellip

Mhellip

Ghellip

Ehellip

IT Fhellip

Thellip

Ghellip

Ahellip

Jhellip

Uhellip

230


00

02

04

06

08

10

12

14

16

19

95

19

96

19

97

19

98

19

99

20

00

20

01

20

02

20

03

20

04

20

05

20

06

20

07

20

08

20

09

20

10

20

11

20

12

20

13

Services

Goods

Goods ampServices


March 12 2015

11


exports)




00

100

200

300

400

500

Fo

od

amp liv

ea

nim

als

Be

ve

rag

es amp

tob

acco

Cru

de

ma

teri

als

exce

pt

fue

ls

Min

era

l fu

els

lu

brica

nts

ampre

late

d m

ate

ria

ls

An

ima

l amp

ve

ge

tab

le o

ils

fats

and

wa

xe

s

Ch

em

ica

ls amp

rela

ted

pro

du

cts

(ne

s)

Ma

nu

factu

red

go

od

s c

lassifie

dch

iefly b

y m

ate

ria

l

Ma

ch

ine

ry a

nd

tra

nsp

ort

atio

ne

qu

ipm

en

t

Mic

hella

neo

us

ma

nufa

ctu

rin

ga

rtic

les Oth

er

1998 2013

Manufacturing


00

100

200

300

400

500

600

Tra

nspo

rtation

(ma

inly

sh

ippin

g)

Tra

vel (m

ain

lyto

urism

)

Co

mm

unic

atio

ns


Insu

rance

Mo

neta

ry

IT s

erv

ices

Ro

ya

ltie

s

Oth

er

busin

ess

serv

ices

1998

2013





00

100

200

300

400

500

600

700

2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013

ΕU-27

Germany

Greece


March 12 2015

12




(SITC Rev4)


0

2

4

6

8

10

0 -

Fo

od

11

- B

eve

rages

12

- T

oba

cco

65

- T

extile

yarn

fa

brics

and

rela

ted

pro

ducts

84

- A

rtic

les o

fap

pare

l an

d c

loth

ing

accesso

ries

85

- F

ootw

ear

61

- L

ea

the

r le

ath

er

ma

nufa

ctu

res

63

- C

ork

an

d w

ood

ma

nufa

ctu

res

64

- P

aper

pa

perb

oard

and

rela

ted

pro

ducts

33

- P

etr

ole

um

pe

trole

um

pro

du

cts

an

d r

ela

ted m

ate

rials

5 -

Chem

icals

and

rela

ted

pro

ducts

54

- M

edic

inal an

dph

arm

ace

utica

lpro

ducts

62

- R

ub

ber

ma

nufa

ctu

res

2008

2013

0

1

2

3

4

5

6

66

- N

on

-me

talli

cm

ine

ral

ma

nufa

ctu

res

ne

s

69

- M

an

ufa

ctu

res o

fm

eta

ls

ne

s

2 -

Cru

de

ma

teria

ls

ine

dib

le

exce

pt

fue

ls

3 -

Min

era

l fu

els

lu

brica

nts

and

rela

ted

ma

teria

ls

4 -

An

ima

l a

nd

ve

ge

tab

le o

ils

fats

an

d w

axe

s

6 -

Ma

nu

factu

red

go

od

s c

lassifie

dch

iefly b

y m

ate

ria

l

7 -

Ma

ch

inery

an

dtr

an

sp

ort

eq

uip

me

nt

8 -

Mis

ce

llan

eou

sm

an

ufa

ctu

red

art

icle

s

82

- F

urn

itu

re

2008

2013




(Greece vs EU-27)

Greece

-10

-08

-06

-04

-02

00

Ma

nufa

ctu

red

goo

ds

(SIT

C 5

to

8 less 6

67

an

d 6

8)

Ch

em

ica

l p

rodu

cts

(SIT

C 5

)

Ma

ch

ine

ry a

nd

tra

nsp

ort

eq

uip

me

nt

(SIT

C 7

)

Ele

ctr

on

ic e

xclu

din

gp

art

s a

nd

co

mp

on

en

ts (

SIT

C7

51

+ 7

52

+ 7

61

+7

62

+ 7

63

+ 7

75

)

Oth

er

man

ufa

ctu

red

go

ods (

SIT

C 6

+ 8

less 6

67 a

nd

68)

1995 2012



March 12 2015

13


(Greece vs EU-27)

EU-27

-02

-02

-01

-01

00

01

01

02M

anufa

ctu

red

goo

ds

(SIT

C 5

to

8 less 6

67

an

d 6

8)

Ch

em

ica

l p

rodu

cts

(SIT

C 5

)

Ma

ch

inery

and

tran

sp

ort

eq

uip

me

nt

(SIT

C 7

)

Ele

ctr

on

ic e

xclu

din

gpa

rts a

nd

com

pone

nts

(S

ITC

75

1 +

75

2 +

76

1 +

76

2 +

76

3 +

77

5)

Oth

er

man

ufa

ctu

red

go

ods (

SIT

C 6

+ 8

less 6

67 a

nd

68)

1995 2012




0

10

20

30

40

50

60

1991 1992 1993 1994 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013

Greece

World

EU-28


00

50

100

150

200

250

1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013





March 12 2015

14




0

5

10

15

20

25

30

35

40

201320122011201020092008200720062005200420032002200120001999199819971996


Non EU Countries

Euro Area










March 12 2015

15





00

20

40

60

80

100

120

140

160

180

200

1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013





008

009

010

011

012

013

014

015

1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012

Greece - Eurozone

Greece - ΕU27




488 Oct

35

40

45

50

55

60

Ja

n-0

5

Ju

n-0

5

No

v-0

5

Ap

r-0

6

Se

p-0

6

Fe

b-0

7

Ju

l-0

7

De

c-0

7

Ma

y-0

8

Oct-

08

Ma

r-0

9

Au

g-0

9

Ja

n-1

0

Ju

n-1

0

No

v-1

0

Ap

r-1

1

Se

p-1

1

Fe

b-1

2

Ju

l-1

2

De

c-1

2

Ma

y-1

3

Oct-

13

Ma

r-1

4

Au

g-1

4

Expansion

Contraction



March 12 2015

16


-50

-40

-30

-20

-10

0

10

20

Ap

r-9

7

De

c-9

7

Au

g-9

8

Ap

r-9

9

De

c-9

9

Au

g-0

0

Ap

r-0

1

De

c-0

1

Au

g-0

2

Ap

r-0

3

De

c-0

3

Au

g-0

4

Apr-

05

De

c-0

5

Au

g-0

6

Ap

r-0

7

De

c-0

7

Au

g-0

8

Ap

r-0

9

De

c-0

9

Au

g-1

0

Apr-

11

De

c-1

1

Au

g-1

2

Ap

r-1

3

De

c-1

3

Au

g-1

4

Greece Eurozone





250

350

450

550

650

750

850

950

2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015

EU-17 (mean)

Greece

min-all countries

max-all countries


0

1

2

3

4

5

6

7

8

9

Ele

cto

ral

Pro

ce

ss

Acce

ss to

Info

rmation

Civ

il rig

hts

Rule

of L

aw

Econo

mic

polic

ies

So

cia

lS

usta

ina

bili

ty

En

vir

onm

en

tal

Su

sta

ina

bili

ty

Executive

Cap

acity

Executive

Acco

un

tabili

ty

Greece Euro area


0

20

40

60

80

100

Sta

rtin

g a

Bu

sin

ess

Dea

ling w

ith

Con

str

uction

Pe

rmits

Reg

iste

rin

gP

rope

rty

Ge

ttin

g C

red

it

Pro

tectin

gIn

ve

sto

rs

Pa

yin

g T

axe

s

Tra

din

g A

cro

ss

Bo

rde

rs

En

forc

ing

Co

ntr

acts

Reso

lvin

gIn

so

lve

ncy

DB 2005 DB 2015

March 12 2015

17


020406080

100120140160

Institu

tio

ns

Infr

astr

uctu

re

Ma

cro

eco

no

mic

en

vir

onm

ent

He

alth

an

dp

rim

ary

ed

uca

tio

n

Hig

he

re

du

ca

tio

n a

nd

tra

inin

g

Go

od

s m

ark

et

eff

icie

ncy

La

bor

ma

rke

te

ffic

ien

cy

Fin

ancia

l m

ark

et

de

ve

lop

me

nt

Te

ch

no

log

ica

lre

ad

ine

ss

Ma

rke

t siz

e

Bu

sin

ess

so

ph

istica

tio

n

Inn

ova

tio

n


March 12 2015

18

































March 12 2015

3




















13 Wage adjustment










0

10

20

30

40

50

60

19

95

19

96

19

97

19

98

19

99

20

00

20

01

20

02

20

03

20

04

20

05

20

06

20

07

20

08

20

09

20

10

20

11

20

12

20

13

Eurozone

Germany

Greece



March 12 2015

4


0

10

20

30

40

50

19

95

19

96

19

97

19

98

19

99

20

00

20

01

20

02

20

03

20

04

20

05

20

06

20

07

20

08

20

09

20

10

20

11

20

12

Eurozone

Germany

Greece

Source AMECO





























March 12 2015

5

































environment etc




March 12 2015

6





095

288

088

-026

-188

-028

-80 -60 -40 -20 00 20 40 60 80 100 120




























growth rates



March 12 2015

7

Appendix I



-1

0

1

2

3

4

-1

0

1

2

3

4

Subs

idie

s

Oth

er c

urre

nttr

ansf

ers

Cap

ital

tran

sfer

s

Gro

ss c

apit

alfo

rmat

ion

Inte

rest

Com

pens

atio

n of

empl

oyee

s

Inte

rmed

iate

cons

umpt

ion

Soci

al b

enef

its


-1

0

1

2

3

4

-1

0

1

2

3

4

Prop

erty

inco

me

Oth

er cu

rren

ttr

ansf

ers

Soci

alco

ntrib

utio

ns

Capi

tal t

rans

fers

Sale

s

Prod

uctio

nampim

port

taxe

s

Inco

meamp

wea

lthta

xes




2010 2011 2012 2013 2014



hysteresis-168 -186 -163 -132 -72

Memorandum items







March 12 2015

8

Appendix II





+ β











-16

-14

-12

-10

-08

-06

-04

-02

00













March 12 2015

9


Greece





900

11500

200

400

600

800

1000

1200

19

98

19

99

20

00

20

01

20

02

20

03

20

04

20

05

20

06

20

07

20

08

20

09

20

10

20

11

20

12

20

13

20

14(f

)



Greece



Greece


325

467

0

10

20

30

40

50

19

93

19

94

19

95

19

96

19

97

19

98

19

99

20

00

20

01

20

02

20

03

20

04

20

05

20

06

20

07

20

08

20

09

20

10

20

11

20

12

20

13

20

14

20

15

20

16

Greece Euro area





70

80

90

100

110

120

130

140

150

2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016

Ireland

Greece

Spain

Latvia

Portugal


March 12 2015

10



-50

00

50

100

150

200

250

20

01

20

02

20

03

20

04

20

05

20

06

20

07

20

08

20

09

20

10

20

11

20

12

20

13



-100

-50

00

50

100

150

19

98

19

99

20

00

20

01

20

02

20

03

20

04

20

05

20

06

20

07

20

08

20

09

20

10

20

11

20

12

20

13

20

14

Euro area Greece





0

20

40

60

80

100

120

140

160

Lhellip

IE Mhellip

Shellip

Bhellip

Ehellip

Hhellip

Nhellip

Chellip

SI Lhellip

Bhellip

Ahellip

Lhellip

Dhellip

Chellip

Chellip

Shellip

Mhellip

Khellip

Nhellip

IS FI Hhellip

Mhellip

Dhellip

Phellip

Chellip

Rhellip

Phellip

Rhellip

Nhellip

Mhellip

Ghellip

Ehellip

IT Fhellip

Thellip

Ghellip

Ahellip

Jhellip

Uhellip

230


00

02

04

06

08

10

12

14

16

19

95

19

96

19

97

19

98

19

99

20

00

20

01

20

02

20

03

20

04

20

05

20

06

20

07

20

08

20

09

20

10

20

11

20

12

20

13

Services

Goods

Goods ampServices


March 12 2015

11


exports)




00

100

200

300

400

500

Fo

od

amp liv

ea

nim

als

Be

ve

rag

es amp

tob

acco

Cru

de

ma

teri

als

exce

pt

fue

ls

Min

era

l fu

els

lu

brica

nts

ampre

late

d m

ate

ria

ls

An

ima

l amp

ve

ge

tab

le o

ils

fats

and

wa

xe

s

Ch

em

ica

ls amp

rela

ted

pro

du

cts

(ne

s)

Ma

nu

factu

red

go

od

s c

lassifie

dch

iefly b

y m

ate

ria

l

Ma

ch

ine

ry a

nd

tra

nsp

ort

atio

ne

qu

ipm

en

t

Mic

hella

neo

us

ma

nufa

ctu

rin

ga

rtic

les Oth

er

1998 2013

Manufacturing


00

100

200

300

400

500

600

Tra

nspo

rtation

(ma

inly

sh

ippin

g)

Tra

vel (m

ain

lyto

urism

)

Co

mm

unic

atio

ns


Insu

rance

Mo

neta

ry

IT s

erv

ices

Ro

ya

ltie

s

Oth

er

busin

ess

serv

ices

1998

2013





00

100

200

300

400

500

600

700

2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013

ΕU-27

Germany

Greece


March 12 2015

12




(SITC Rev4)


0

2

4

6

8

10

0 -

Fo

od

11

- B

eve

rages

12

- T

oba

cco

65

- T

extile

yarn

fa

brics

and

rela

ted

pro

ducts

84

- A

rtic

les o

fap

pare

l an

d c

loth

ing

accesso

ries

85

- F

ootw

ear

61

- L

ea

the

r le

ath

er

ma

nufa

ctu

res

63

- C

ork

an

d w

ood

ma

nufa

ctu

res

64

- P

aper

pa

perb

oard

and

rela

ted

pro

ducts

33

- P

etr

ole

um

pe

trole

um

pro

du

cts

an

d r

ela

ted m

ate

rials

5 -

Chem

icals

and

rela

ted

pro

ducts

54

- M

edic

inal an

dph

arm

ace

utica

lpro

ducts

62

- R

ub

ber

ma

nufa

ctu

res

2008

2013

0

1

2

3

4

5

6

66

- N

on

-me

talli

cm

ine

ral

ma

nufa

ctu

res

ne

s

69

- M

an

ufa

ctu

res o

fm

eta

ls

ne

s

2 -

Cru

de

ma

teria

ls

ine

dib

le

exce

pt

fue

ls

3 -

Min

era

l fu

els

lu

brica

nts

and

rela

ted

ma

teria

ls

4 -

An

ima

l a

nd

ve

ge

tab

le o

ils

fats

an

d w

axe

s

6 -

Ma

nu

factu

red

go

od

s c

lassifie

dch

iefly b

y m

ate

ria

l

7 -

Ma

ch

inery

an

dtr

an

sp

ort

eq

uip

me

nt

8 -

Mis

ce

llan

eou

sm

an

ufa

ctu

red

art

icle

s

82

- F

urn

itu

re

2008

2013




(Greece vs EU-27)

Greece

-10

-08

-06

-04

-02

00

Ma

nufa

ctu

red

goo

ds

(SIT

C 5

to

8 less 6

67

an

d 6

8)

Ch

em

ica

l p

rodu

cts

(SIT

C 5

)

Ma

ch

ine

ry a

nd

tra

nsp

ort

eq

uip

me

nt

(SIT

C 7

)

Ele

ctr

on

ic e

xclu

din

gp

art

s a

nd

co

mp

on

en

ts (

SIT

C7

51

+ 7

52

+ 7

61

+7

62

+ 7

63

+ 7

75

)

Oth

er

man

ufa

ctu

red

go

ods (

SIT

C 6

+ 8

less 6

67 a

nd

68)

1995 2012



March 12 2015

13


(Greece vs EU-27)

EU-27

-02

-02

-01

-01

00

01

01

02M

anufa

ctu

red

goo

ds

(SIT

C 5

to

8 less 6

67

an

d 6

8)

Ch

em

ica

l p

rodu

cts

(SIT

C 5

)

Ma

ch

inery

and

tran

sp

ort

eq

uip

me

nt

(SIT

C 7

)

Ele

ctr

on

ic e

xclu

din

gpa

rts a

nd

com

pone

nts

(S

ITC

75

1 +

75

2 +

76

1 +

76

2 +

76

3 +

77

5)

Oth

er

man

ufa

ctu

red

go

ods (

SIT

C 6

+ 8

less 6

67 a

nd

68)

1995 2012




0

10

20

30

40

50

60

1991 1992 1993 1994 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013

Greece

World

EU-28


00

50

100

150

200

250

1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013





March 12 2015

14




0

5

10

15

20

25

30

35

40

201320122011201020092008200720062005200420032002200120001999199819971996


Non EU Countries

Euro Area










March 12 2015

15





00

20

40

60

80

100

120

140

160

180

200

1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013





008

009

010

011

012

013

014

015

1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012

Greece - Eurozone

Greece - ΕU27




488 Oct

35

40

45

50

55

60

Ja

n-0

5

Ju

n-0

5

No

v-0

5

Ap

r-0

6

Se

p-0

6

Fe

b-0

7

Ju

l-0

7

De

c-0

7

Ma

y-0

8

Oct-

08

Ma

r-0

9

Au

g-0

9

Ja

n-1

0

Ju

n-1

0

No

v-1

0

Ap

r-1

1

Se

p-1

1

Fe

b-1

2

Ju

l-1

2

De

c-1

2

Ma

y-1

3

Oct-

13

Ma

r-1

4

Au

g-1

4

Expansion

Contraction



March 12 2015

16


-50

-40

-30

-20

-10

0

10

20

Ap

r-9

7

De

c-9

7

Au

g-9

8

Ap

r-9

9

De

c-9

9

Au

g-0

0

Ap

r-0

1

De

c-0

1

Au

g-0

2

Ap

r-0

3

De

c-0

3

Au

g-0

4

Apr-

05

De

c-0

5

Au

g-0

6

Ap

r-0

7

De

c-0

7

Au

g-0

8

Ap

r-0

9

De

c-0

9

Au

g-1

0

Apr-

11

De

c-1

1

Au

g-1

2

Ap

r-1

3

De

c-1

3

Au

g-1

4

Greece Eurozone





250

350

450

550

650

750

850

950

2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015

EU-17 (mean)

Greece

min-all countries

max-all countries


0

1

2

3

4

5

6

7

8

9

Ele

cto

ral

Pro

ce

ss

Acce

ss to

Info

rmation

Civ

il rig

hts

Rule

of L

aw

Econo

mic

polic

ies

So

cia

lS

usta

ina

bili

ty

En

vir

onm

en

tal

Su

sta

ina

bili

ty

Executive

Cap

acity

Executive

Acco

un

tabili

ty

Greece Euro area


0

20

40

60

80

100

Sta

rtin

g a

Bu

sin

ess

Dea

ling w

ith

Con

str

uction

Pe

rmits

Reg

iste

rin

gP

rope

rty

Ge

ttin

g C

red

it

Pro

tectin

gIn

ve

sto

rs

Pa

yin

g T

axe

s

Tra

din

g A

cro

ss

Bo

rde

rs

En

forc

ing

Co

ntr

acts

Reso

lvin

gIn

so

lve

ncy

DB 2005 DB 2015

March 12 2015

17


020406080

100120140160

Institu

tio

ns

Infr

astr

uctu

re

Ma

cro

eco

no

mic

en

vir

onm

ent

He

alth

an

dp

rim

ary

ed

uca

tio

n

Hig

he

re

du

ca

tio

n a

nd

tra

inin

g

Go

od

s m

ark

et

eff

icie

ncy

La

bor

ma

rke

te

ffic

ien

cy

Fin

ancia

l m

ark

et

de

ve

lop

me

nt

Te

ch

no

log

ica

lre

ad

ine

ss

Ma

rke

t siz

e

Bu

sin

ess

so

ph

istica

tio

n

Inn

ova

tio

n


March 12 2015

18

































March 12 2015

4


0

10

20

30

40

50

19

95

19

96

19

97

19

98

19

99

20

00

20

01

20

02

20

03

20

04

20

05

20

06

20

07

20

08

20

09

20

10

20

11

20

12

Eurozone

Germany

Greece

Source AMECO





























March 12 2015

5

































environment etc




March 12 2015

6





095

288

088

-026

-188

-028

-80 -60 -40 -20 00 20 40 60 80 100 120




























growth rates



March 12 2015

7

Appendix I



-1

0

1

2

3

4

-1

0

1

2

3

4

Subs

idie

s

Oth

er c

urre

nttr

ansf

ers

Cap

ital

tran

sfer

s

Gro

ss c

apit

alfo

rmat

ion

Inte

rest

Com

pens

atio

n of

empl

oyee

s

Inte

rmed

iate

cons

umpt

ion

Soci

al b

enef

its


-1

0

1

2

3

4

-1

0

1

2

3

4

Prop

erty

inco

me

Oth

er cu

rren

ttr

ansf

ers

Soci

alco

ntrib

utio

ns

Capi

tal t

rans

fers

Sale

s

Prod

uctio

nampim

port

taxe

s

Inco

meamp

wea

lthta

xes




2010 2011 2012 2013 2014



hysteresis-168 -186 -163 -132 -72

Memorandum items







March 12 2015

8

Appendix II





+ β











-16

-14

-12

-10

-08

-06

-04

-02

00













March 12 2015

9


Greece





900

11500

200

400

600

800

1000

1200

19

98

19

99

20

00

20

01

20

02

20

03

20

04

20

05

20

06

20

07

20

08

20

09

20

10

20

11

20

12

20

13

20

14(f

)



Greece



Greece


325

467

0

10

20

30

40

50

19

93

19

94

19

95

19

96

19

97

19

98

19

99

20

00

20

01

20

02

20

03

20

04

20

05

20

06

20

07

20

08

20

09

20

10

20

11

20

12

20

13

20

14

20

15

20

16

Greece Euro area





70

80

90

100

110

120

130

140

150

2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016

Ireland

Greece

Spain

Latvia

Portugal


March 12 2015

10



-50

00

50

100

150

200

250

20

01

20

02

20

03

20

04

20

05

20

06

20

07

20

08

20

09

20

10

20

11

20

12

20

13



-100

-50

00

50

100

150

19

98

19

99

20

00

20

01

20

02

20

03

20

04

20

05

20

06

20

07

20

08

20

09

20

10

20

11

20

12

20

13

20

14

Euro area Greece





0

20

40

60

80

100

120

140

160

Lhellip

IE Mhellip

Shellip

Bhellip

Ehellip

Hhellip

Nhellip

Chellip

SI Lhellip

Bhellip

Ahellip

Lhellip

Dhellip

Chellip

Chellip

Shellip

Mhellip

Khellip

Nhellip

IS FI Hhellip

Mhellip

Dhellip

Phellip

Chellip

Rhellip

Phellip

Rhellip

Nhellip

Mhellip

Ghellip

Ehellip

IT Fhellip

Thellip

Ghellip

Ahellip

Jhellip

Uhellip

230


00

02

04

06

08

10

12

14

16

19

95

19

96

19

97

19

98

19

99

20

00

20

01

20

02

20

03

20

04

20

05

20

06

20

07

20

08

20

09

20

10

20

11

20

12

20

13

Services

Goods

Goods ampServices


March 12 2015

11


exports)




00

100

200

300

400

500

Fo

od

amp liv

ea

nim

als

Be

ve

rag

es amp

tob

acco

Cru

de

ma

teri

als

exce

pt

fue

ls

Min

era

l fu

els

lu

brica

nts

ampre

late

d m

ate

ria

ls

An

ima

l amp

ve

ge

tab

le o

ils

fats

and

wa

xe

s

Ch

em

ica

ls amp

rela

ted

pro

du

cts

(ne

s)

Ma

nu

factu

red

go

od

s c

lassifie

dch

iefly b

y m

ate

ria

l

Ma

ch

ine

ry a

nd

tra

nsp

ort

atio

ne

qu

ipm

en

t

Mic

hella

neo

us

ma

nufa

ctu

rin

ga

rtic

les Oth

er

1998 2013

Manufacturing


00

100

200

300

400

500

600

Tra

nspo

rtation

(ma

inly

sh

ippin

g)

Tra

vel (m

ain

lyto

urism

)

Co

mm

unic

atio

ns


Insu

rance

Mo

neta

ry

IT s

erv

ices

Ro

ya

ltie

s

Oth

er

busin

ess

serv

ices

1998

2013





00

100

200

300

400

500

600

700

2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013

ΕU-27

Germany

Greece


March 12 2015

12




(SITC Rev4)


0

2

4

6

8

10

0 -

Fo

od

11

- B

eve

rages

12

- T

oba

cco

65

- T

extile

yarn

fa

brics

and

rela

ted

pro

ducts

84

- A

rtic

les o

fap

pare

l an

d c

loth

ing

accesso

ries

85

- F

ootw

ear

61

- L

ea

the

r le

ath

er

ma

nufa

ctu

res

63

- C

ork

an

d w

ood

ma

nufa

ctu

res

64

- P

aper

pa

perb

oard

and

rela

ted

pro

ducts

33

- P

etr

ole

um

pe

trole

um

pro

du

cts

an

d r

ela

ted m

ate

rials

5 -

Chem

icals

and

rela

ted

pro

ducts

54

- M

edic

inal an

dph

arm

ace

utica

lpro

ducts

62

- R

ub

ber

ma

nufa

ctu

res

2008

2013

0

1

2

3

4

5

6

66

- N

on

-me

talli

cm

ine

ral

ma

nufa

ctu

res

ne

s

69

- M

an

ufa

ctu

res o

fm

eta

ls

ne

s

2 -

Cru

de

ma

teria

ls

ine

dib

le

exce

pt

fue

ls

3 -

Min

era

l fu

els

lu

brica

nts

and

rela

ted

ma

teria

ls

4 -

An

ima

l a

nd

ve

ge

tab

le o

ils

fats

an

d w

axe

s

6 -

Ma

nu

factu

red

go

od

s c

lassifie

dch

iefly b

y m

ate

ria

l

7 -

Ma

ch

inery

an

dtr

an

sp

ort

eq

uip

me

nt

8 -

Mis

ce

llan

eou

sm

an

ufa

ctu

red

art

icle

s

82

- F

urn

itu

re

2008

2013




(Greece vs EU-27)

Greece

-10

-08

-06

-04

-02

00

Ma

nufa

ctu

red

goo

ds

(SIT

C 5

to

8 less 6

67

an

d 6

8)

Ch

em

ica

l p

rodu

cts

(SIT

C 5

)

Ma

ch

ine

ry a

nd

tra

nsp

ort

eq

uip

me

nt

(SIT

C 7

)

Ele

ctr

on

ic e

xclu

din

gp

art

s a

nd

co

mp

on

en

ts (

SIT

C7

51

+ 7

52

+ 7

61

+7

62

+ 7

63

+ 7

75

)

Oth

er

man

ufa

ctu

red

go

ods (

SIT

C 6

+ 8

less 6

67 a

nd

68)

1995 2012



March 12 2015

13


(Greece vs EU-27)

EU-27

-02

-02

-01

-01

00

01

01

02M

anufa

ctu

red

goo

ds

(SIT

C 5

to

8 less 6

67

an

d 6

8)

Ch

em

ica

l p

rodu

cts

(SIT

C 5

)

Ma

ch

inery

and

tran

sp

ort

eq

uip

me

nt

(SIT

C 7

)

Ele

ctr

on

ic e

xclu

din

gpa

rts a

nd

com

pone

nts

(S

ITC

75

1 +

75

2 +

76

1 +

76

2 +

76

3 +

77

5)

Oth

er

man

ufa

ctu

red

go

ods (

SIT

C 6

+ 8

less 6

67 a

nd

68)

1995 2012




0

10

20

30

40

50

60

1991 1992 1993 1994 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013

Greece

World

EU-28


00

50

100

150

200

250

1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013





March 12 2015

14




0

5

10

15

20

25

30

35

40

201320122011201020092008200720062005200420032002200120001999199819971996


Non EU Countries

Euro Area










March 12 2015

15





00

20

40

60

80

100

120

140

160

180

200

1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013





008

009

010

011

012

013

014

015

1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012

Greece - Eurozone

Greece - ΕU27




488 Oct

35

40

45

50

55

60

Ja

n-0

5

Ju

n-0

5

No

v-0

5

Ap

r-0

6

Se

p-0

6

Fe

b-0

7

Ju

l-0

7

De

c-0

7

Ma

y-0

8

Oct-

08

Ma

r-0

9

Au

g-0

9

Ja

n-1

0

Ju

n-1

0

No

v-1

0

Ap

r-1

1

Se

p-1

1

Fe

b-1

2

Ju

l-1

2

De

c-1

2

Ma

y-1

3

Oct-

13

Ma

r-1

4

Au

g-1

4

Expansion

Contraction



March 12 2015

16


-50

-40

-30

-20

-10

0

10

20

Ap

r-9

7

De

c-9

7

Au

g-9

8

Ap

r-9

9

De

c-9

9

Au

g-0

0

Ap

r-0

1

De

c-0

1

Au

g-0

2

Ap

r-0

3

De

c-0

3

Au

g-0

4

Apr-

05

De

c-0

5

Au

g-0

6

Ap

r-0

7

De

c-0

7

Au

g-0

8

Ap

r-0

9

De

c-0

9

Au

g-1

0

Apr-

11

De

c-1

1

Au

g-1

2

Ap

r-1

3

De

c-1

3

Au

g-1

4

Greece Eurozone





250

350

450

550

650

750

850

950

2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015

EU-17 (mean)

Greece

min-all countries

max-all countries


0

1

2

3

4

5

6

7

8

9

Ele

cto

ral

Pro

ce

ss

Acce

ss to

Info

rmation

Civ

il rig

hts

Rule

of L

aw

Econo

mic

polic

ies

So

cia

lS

usta

ina

bili

ty

En

vir

onm

en

tal

Su

sta

ina

bili

ty

Executive

Cap

acity

Executive

Acco

un

tabili

ty

Greece Euro area


0

20

40

60

80

100

Sta

rtin

g a

Bu

sin

ess

Dea

ling w

ith

Con

str

uction

Pe

rmits

Reg

iste

rin

gP

rope

rty

Ge

ttin

g C

red

it

Pro

tectin

gIn

ve

sto

rs

Pa

yin

g T

axe

s

Tra

din

g A

cro

ss

Bo

rde

rs

En

forc

ing

Co

ntr

acts

Reso

lvin

gIn

so

lve

ncy

DB 2005 DB 2015

March 12 2015

17


020406080

100120140160

Institu

tio

ns

Infr

astr

uctu

re

Ma

cro

eco

no

mic

en

vir

onm

ent

He

alth

an

dp

rim

ary

ed

uca

tio

n

Hig

he

re

du

ca

tio

n a

nd

tra

inin

g

Go

od

s m

ark

et

eff

icie

ncy

La

bor

ma

rke

te

ffic

ien

cy

Fin

ancia

l m

ark

et

de

ve

lop

me

nt

Te

ch

no

log

ica

lre

ad

ine

ss

Ma

rke

t siz

e

Bu

sin

ess

so

ph

istica

tio

n

Inn

ova

tio

n


March 12 2015

18

































March 12 2015

5

































environment etc




March 12 2015

6





095

288

088

-026

-188

-028

-80 -60 -40 -20 00 20 40 60 80 100 120




























growth rates



March 12 2015

7

Appendix I



-1

0

1

2

3

4

-1

0

1

2

3

4

Subs

idie

s

Oth

er c

urre

nttr

ansf

ers

Cap

ital

tran

sfer

s

Gro

ss c

apit

alfo

rmat

ion

Inte

rest

Com

pens

atio

n of

empl

oyee

s

Inte

rmed

iate

cons

umpt

ion

Soci

al b

enef

its


-1

0

1

2

3

4

-1

0

1

2

3

4

Prop

erty

inco

me

Oth

er cu

rren

ttr

ansf

ers

Soci

alco

ntrib

utio

ns

Capi

tal t

rans

fers

Sale

s

Prod

uctio

nampim

port

taxe

s

Inco

meamp

wea

lthta

xes




2010 2011 2012 2013 2014



hysteresis-168 -186 -163 -132 -72

Memorandum items







March 12 2015

8

Appendix II





+ β











-16

-14

-12

-10

-08

-06

-04

-02

00













March 12 2015

9


Greece





900

11500

200

400

600

800

1000

1200

19

98

19

99

20

00

20

01

20

02

20

03

20

04

20

05

20

06

20

07

20

08

20

09

20

10

20

11

20

12

20

13

20

14(f

)



Greece



Greece


325

467

0

10

20

30

40

50

19

93

19

94

19

95

19

96

19

97

19

98

19

99

20

00

20

01

20

02

20

03

20

04

20

05

20

06

20

07

20

08

20

09

20

10

20

11

20

12

20

13

20

14

20

15

20

16

Greece Euro area





70

80

90

100

110

120

130

140

150

2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016

Ireland

Greece

Spain

Latvia

Portugal


March 12 2015

10



-50

00

50

100

150

200

250

20

01

20

02

20

03

20

04

20

05

20

06

20

07

20

08

20

09

20

10

20

11

20

12

20

13



-100

-50

00

50

100

150

19

98

19

99

20

00

20

01

20

02

20

03

20

04

20

05

20

06

20

07

20

08

20

09

20

10

20

11

20

12

20

13

20

14

Euro area Greece





0

20

40

60

80

100

120

140

160

Lhellip

IE Mhellip

Shellip

Bhellip

Ehellip

Hhellip

Nhellip

Chellip

SI Lhellip

Bhellip

Ahellip

Lhellip

Dhellip

Chellip

Chellip

Shellip

Mhellip

Khellip

Nhellip

IS FI Hhellip

Mhellip

Dhellip

Phellip

Chellip

Rhellip

Phellip

Rhellip

Nhellip

Mhellip

Ghellip

Ehellip

IT Fhellip

Thellip

Ghellip

Ahellip

Jhellip

Uhellip

230


00

02

04

06

08

10

12

14

16

19

95

19

96

19

97

19

98

19

99

20

00

20

01

20

02

20

03

20

04

20

05

20

06

20

07

20

08

20

09

20

10

20

11

20

12

20

13

Services

Goods

Goods ampServices


March 12 2015

11


exports)




00

100

200

300

400

500

Fo

od

amp liv

ea

nim

als

Be

ve

rag

es amp

tob

acco

Cru

de

ma

teri

als

exce

pt

fue

ls

Min

era

l fu

els

lu

brica

nts

ampre

late

d m

ate

ria

ls

An

ima

l amp

ve

ge

tab

le o

ils

fats

and

wa

xe

s

Ch

em

ica

ls amp

rela

ted

pro

du

cts

(ne

s)

Ma

nu

factu

red

go

od

s c

lassifie

dch

iefly b

y m

ate

ria

l

Ma

ch

ine

ry a

nd

tra

nsp

ort

atio

ne

qu

ipm

en

t

Mic

hella

neo

us

ma

nufa

ctu

rin

ga

rtic

les Oth

er

1998 2013

Manufacturing


00

100

200

300

400

500

600

Tra

nspo

rtation

(ma

inly

sh

ippin

g)

Tra

vel (m

ain

lyto

urism

)

Co

mm

unic

atio

ns


Insu

rance

Mo

neta

ry

IT s

erv

ices

Ro

ya

ltie

s

Oth

er

busin

ess

serv

ices

1998

2013





00

100

200

300

400

500

600

700

2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013

ΕU-27

Germany

Greece


March 12 2015

12




(SITC Rev4)


0

2

4

6

8

10

0 -

Fo

od

11

- B

eve

rages

12

- T

oba

cco

65

- T

extile

yarn

fa

brics

and

rela

ted

pro

ducts

84

- A

rtic

les o

fap

pare

l an

d c

loth

ing

accesso

ries

85

- F

ootw

ear

61

- L

ea

the

r le

ath

er

ma

nufa

ctu

res

63

- C

ork

an

d w

ood

ma

nufa

ctu

res

64

- P

aper

pa

perb

oard

and

rela

ted

pro

ducts

33

- P

etr

ole

um

pe

trole

um

pro

du

cts

an

d r

ela

ted m

ate

rials

5 -

Chem

icals

and

rela

ted

pro

ducts

54

- M

edic

inal an

dph

arm

ace

utica

lpro

ducts

62

- R

ub

ber

ma

nufa

ctu

res

2008

2013

0

1

2

3

4

5

6

66

- N

on

-me

talli

cm

ine

ral

ma

nufa

ctu

res

ne

s

69

- M

an

ufa

ctu

res o

fm

eta

ls

ne

s

2 -

Cru

de

ma

teria

ls

ine

dib

le

exce

pt

fue

ls

3 -

Min

era

l fu

els

lu

brica

nts

and

rela

ted

ma

teria

ls

4 -

An

ima

l a

nd

ve

ge

tab

le o

ils

fats

an

d w

axe

s

6 -

Ma

nu

factu

red

go

od

s c

lassifie

dch

iefly b

y m

ate

ria

l

7 -

Ma

ch

inery

an

dtr

an

sp

ort

eq

uip

me

nt

8 -

Mis

ce

llan

eou

sm

an

ufa

ctu

red

art

icle

s

82

- F

urn

itu

re

2008

2013




(Greece vs EU-27)

Greece

-10

-08

-06

-04

-02

00

Ma

nufa

ctu

red

goo

ds

(SIT

C 5

to

8 less 6

67

an

d 6

8)

Ch

em

ica

l p

rodu

cts

(SIT

C 5

)

Ma

ch

ine

ry a

nd

tra

nsp

ort

eq

uip

me

nt

(SIT

C 7

)

Ele

ctr

on

ic e

xclu

din

gp

art

s a

nd

co

mp

on

en

ts (

SIT

C7

51

+ 7

52

+ 7

61

+7

62

+ 7

63

+ 7

75

)

Oth

er

man

ufa

ctu

red

go

ods (

SIT

C 6

+ 8

less 6

67 a

nd

68)

1995 2012



March 12 2015

13


(Greece vs EU-27)

EU-27

-02

-02

-01

-01

00

01

01

02M

anufa

ctu

red

goo

ds

(SIT

C 5

to

8 less 6

67

an

d 6

8)

Ch

em

ica

l p

rodu

cts

(SIT

C 5

)

Ma

ch

inery

and

tran

sp

ort

eq

uip

me

nt

(SIT

C 7

)

Ele

ctr

on

ic e

xclu

din

gpa

rts a

nd

com

pone

nts

(S

ITC

75

1 +

75

2 +

76

1 +

76

2 +

76

3 +

77

5)

Oth

er

man

ufa

ctu

red

go

ods (

SIT

C 6

+ 8

less 6

67 a

nd

68)

1995 2012




0

10

20

30

40

50

60

1991 1992 1993 1994 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013

Greece

World

EU-28


00

50

100

150

200

250

1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013





March 12 2015

14




0

5

10

15

20

25

30

35

40

201320122011201020092008200720062005200420032002200120001999199819971996


Non EU Countries

Euro Area










March 12 2015

15





00

20

40

60

80

100

120

140

160

180

200

1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013





008

009

010

011

012

013

014

015

1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012

Greece - Eurozone

Greece - ΕU27




488 Oct

35

40

45

50

55

60

Ja

n-0

5

Ju

n-0

5

No

v-0

5

Ap

r-0

6

Se

p-0

6

Fe

b-0

7

Ju

l-0

7

De

c-0

7

Ma

y-0

8

Oct-

08

Ma

r-0

9

Au

g-0

9

Ja

n-1

0

Ju

n-1

0

No

v-1

0

Ap

r-1

1

Se

p-1

1

Fe

b-1

2

Ju

l-1

2

De

c-1

2

Ma

y-1

3

Oct-

13

Ma

r-1

4

Au

g-1

4

Expansion

Contraction



March 12 2015

16


-50

-40

-30

-20

-10

0

10

20

Ap

r-9

7

De

c-9

7

Au

g-9

8

Ap

r-9

9

De

c-9

9

Au

g-0

0

Ap

r-0

1

De

c-0

1

Au

g-0

2

Ap

r-0

3

De

c-0

3

Au

g-0

4

Apr-

05

De

c-0

5

Au

g-0

6

Ap

r-0

7

De

c-0

7

Au

g-0

8

Ap

r-0

9

De

c-0

9

Au

g-1

0

Apr-

11

De

c-1

1

Au

g-1

2

Ap

r-1

3

De

c-1

3

Au

g-1

4

Greece Eurozone





250

350

450

550

650

750

850

950

2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015

EU-17 (mean)

Greece

min-all countries

max-all countries


0

1

2

3

4

5

6

7

8

9

Ele

cto

ral

Pro

ce

ss

Acce

ss to

Info

rmation

Civ

il rig

hts

Rule

of L

aw

Econo

mic

polic

ies

So

cia

lS

usta

ina

bili

ty

En

vir

onm

en

tal

Su

sta

ina

bili

ty

Executive

Cap

acity

Executive

Acco

un

tabili

ty

Greece Euro area


0

20

40

60

80

100

Sta

rtin

g a

Bu

sin

ess

Dea

ling w

ith

Con

str

uction

Pe

rmits

Reg

iste

rin

gP

rope

rty

Ge

ttin

g C

red

it

Pro

tectin

gIn

ve

sto

rs

Pa

yin

g T

axe

s

Tra

din

g A

cro

ss

Bo

rde

rs

En

forc

ing

Co

ntr

acts

Reso

lvin

gIn

so

lve

ncy

DB 2005 DB 2015

March 12 2015

17


020406080

100120140160

Institu

tio

ns

Infr

astr

uctu

re

Ma

cro

eco

no

mic

en

vir

onm

ent

He

alth

an

dp

rim

ary

ed

uca

tio

n

Hig

he

re

du

ca

tio

n a

nd

tra

inin

g

Go

od

s m

ark

et

eff

icie

ncy

La

bor

ma

rke

te

ffic

ien

cy

Fin

ancia

l m

ark

et

de

ve

lop

me

nt

Te

ch

no

log

ica

lre

ad

ine

ss

Ma

rke

t siz

e

Bu

sin

ess

so

ph

istica

tio

n

Inn

ova

tio

n


March 12 2015

18

































March 12 2015

6





095

288

088

-026

-188

-028

-80 -60 -40 -20 00 20 40 60 80 100 120




























growth rates



March 12 2015

7

Appendix I



-1

0

1

2

3

4

-1

0

1

2

3

4

Subs

idie

s

Oth

er c

urre

nttr

ansf

ers

Cap

ital

tran

sfer

s

Gro

ss c

apit

alfo

rmat

ion

Inte

rest

Com

pens

atio

n of

empl

oyee

s

Inte

rmed

iate

cons

umpt

ion

Soci

al b

enef

its


-1

0

1

2

3

4

-1

0

1

2

3

4

Prop

erty

inco

me

Oth

er cu

rren

ttr

ansf

ers

Soci

alco

ntrib

utio

ns

Capi

tal t

rans

fers

Sale

s

Prod

uctio

nampim

port

taxe

s

Inco

meamp

wea

lthta

xes




2010 2011 2012 2013 2014



hysteresis-168 -186 -163 -132 -72

Memorandum items







March 12 2015

8

Appendix II





+ β











-16

-14

-12

-10

-08

-06

-04

-02

00













March 12 2015

9


Greece





900

11500

200

400

600

800

1000

1200

19

98

19

99

20

00

20

01

20

02

20

03

20

04

20

05

20

06

20

07

20

08

20

09

20

10

20

11

20

12

20

13

20

14(f

)



Greece



Greece


325

467

0

10

20

30

40

50

19

93

19

94

19

95

19

96

19

97

19

98

19

99

20

00

20

01

20

02

20

03

20

04

20

05

20

06

20

07

20

08

20

09

20

10

20

11

20

12

20

13

20

14

20

15

20

16

Greece Euro area





70

80

90

100

110

120

130

140

150

2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016

Ireland

Greece

Spain

Latvia

Portugal


March 12 2015

10



-50

00

50

100

150

200

250

20

01

20

02

20

03

20

04

20

05

20

06

20

07

20

08

20

09

20

10

20

11

20

12

20

13



-100

-50

00

50

100

150

19

98

19

99

20

00

20

01

20

02

20

03

20

04

20

05

20

06

20

07

20

08

20

09

20

10

20

11

20

12

20

13

20

14

Euro area Greece





0

20

40

60

80

100

120

140

160

Lhellip

IE Mhellip

Shellip

Bhellip

Ehellip

Hhellip

Nhellip

Chellip

SI Lhellip

Bhellip

Ahellip

Lhellip

Dhellip

Chellip

Chellip

Shellip

Mhellip

Khellip

Nhellip

IS FI Hhellip

Mhellip

Dhellip

Phellip

Chellip

Rhellip

Phellip

Rhellip

Nhellip

Mhellip

Ghellip

Ehellip

IT Fhellip

Thellip

Ghellip

Ahellip

Jhellip

Uhellip

230


00

02

04

06

08

10

12

14

16

19

95

19

96

19

97

19

98

19

99

20

00

20

01

20

02

20

03

20

04

20

05

20

06

20

07

20

08

20

09

20

10

20

11

20

12

20

13

Services

Goods

Goods ampServices


March 12 2015

11


exports)




00

100

200

300

400

500

Fo

od

amp liv

ea

nim

als

Be

ve

rag

es amp

tob

acco

Cru

de

ma

teri

als

exce

pt

fue

ls

Min

era

l fu

els

lu

brica

nts

ampre

late

d m

ate

ria

ls

An

ima

l amp

ve

ge

tab

le o

ils

fats

and

wa

xe

s

Ch

em

ica

ls amp

rela

ted

pro

du

cts

(ne

s)

Ma

nu

factu

red

go

od

s c

lassifie

dch

iefly b

y m

ate

ria

l

Ma

ch

ine

ry a

nd

tra

nsp

ort

atio

ne

qu

ipm

en

t

Mic

hella

neo

us

ma

nufa

ctu

rin

ga

rtic

les Oth

er

1998 2013

Manufacturing


00

100

200

300

400

500

600

Tra

nspo

rtation

(ma

inly

sh

ippin

g)

Tra

vel (m

ain

lyto

urism

)

Co

mm

unic

atio

ns


Insu

rance

Mo

neta

ry

IT s

erv

ices

Ro

ya

ltie

s

Oth

er

busin

ess

serv

ices

1998

2013





00

100

200

300

400

500

600

700

2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013

ΕU-27

Germany

Greece


March 12 2015

12




(SITC Rev4)


0

2

4

6

8

10

0 -

Fo

od

11

- B

eve

rages

12

- T

oba

cco

65

- T

extile

yarn

fa

brics

and

rela

ted

pro

ducts

84

- A

rtic

les o

fap

pare

l an

d c

loth

ing

accesso

ries

85

- F

ootw

ear

61

- L

ea

the

r le

ath

er

ma

nufa

ctu

res

63

- C

ork

an

d w

ood

ma

nufa

ctu

res

64

- P

aper

pa

perb

oard

and

rela

ted

pro

ducts

33

- P

etr

ole

um

pe

trole

um

pro

du

cts

an

d r

ela

ted m

ate

rials

5 -

Chem

icals

and

rela

ted

pro

ducts

54

- M

edic

inal an

dph

arm

ace

utica

lpro

ducts

62

- R

ub

ber

ma

nufa

ctu

res

2008

2013

0

1

2

3

4

5

6

66

- N

on

-me

talli

cm

ine

ral

ma

nufa

ctu

res

ne

s

69

- M

an

ufa

ctu

res o

fm

eta

ls

ne

s

2 -

Cru

de

ma

teria

ls

ine

dib

le

exce

pt

fue

ls

3 -

Min

era

l fu

els

lu

brica

nts

and

rela

ted

ma

teria

ls

4 -

An

ima

l a

nd

ve

ge

tab

le o

ils

fats

an

d w

axe

s

6 -

Ma

nu

factu

red

go

od

s c

lassifie

dch

iefly b

y m

ate

ria

l

7 -

Ma

ch

inery

an

dtr

an

sp

ort

eq

uip

me

nt

8 -

Mis

ce

llan

eou

sm

an

ufa

ctu

red

art

icle

s

82

- F

urn

itu

re

2008

2013




(Greece vs EU-27)

Greece

-10

-08

-06

-04

-02

00

Ma

nufa

ctu

red

goo

ds

(SIT

C 5

to

8 less 6

67

an

d 6

8)

Ch

em

ica

l p

rodu

cts

(SIT

C 5

)

Ma

ch

ine

ry a

nd

tra

nsp

ort

eq

uip

me

nt

(SIT

C 7

)

Ele

ctr

on

ic e

xclu

din

gp

art

s a

nd

co

mp

on

en

ts (

SIT

C7

51

+ 7

52

+ 7

61

+7

62

+ 7

63

+ 7

75

)

Oth

er

man

ufa

ctu

red

go

ods (

SIT

C 6

+ 8

less 6

67 a

nd

68)

1995 2012



March 12 2015

13


(Greece vs EU-27)

EU-27

-02

-02

-01

-01

00

01

01

02M

anufa

ctu

red

goo

ds

(SIT

C 5

to

8 less 6

67

an

d 6

8)

Ch

em

ica

l p

rodu

cts

(SIT

C 5

)

Ma

ch

inery

and

tran

sp

ort

eq

uip

me

nt

(SIT

C 7

)

Ele

ctr

on

ic e

xclu

din

gpa

rts a

nd

com

pone

nts

(S

ITC

75

1 +

75

2 +

76

1 +

76

2 +

76

3 +

77

5)

Oth

er

man

ufa

ctu

red

go

ods (

SIT

C 6

+ 8

less 6

67 a

nd

68)

1995 2012




0

10

20

30

40

50

60

1991 1992 1993 1994 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013

Greece

World

EU-28


00

50

100

150

200

250

1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013





March 12 2015

14




0

5

10

15

20

25

30

35

40

201320122011201020092008200720062005200420032002200120001999199819971996


Non EU Countries

Euro Area










March 12 2015

15





00

20

40

60

80

100

120

140

160

180

200

1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013





008

009

010

011

012

013

014

015

1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012

Greece - Eurozone

Greece - ΕU27




488 Oct

35

40

45

50

55

60

Ja

n-0

5

Ju

n-0

5

No

v-0

5

Ap

r-0

6

Se

p-0

6

Fe

b-0

7

Ju

l-0

7

De

c-0

7

Ma

y-0

8

Oct-

08

Ma

r-0

9

Au

g-0

9

Ja

n-1

0

Ju

n-1

0

No

v-1

0

Ap

r-1

1

Se

p-1

1

Fe

b-1

2

Ju

l-1

2

De

c-1

2

Ma

y-1

3

Oct-

13

Ma

r-1

4

Au

g-1

4

Expansion

Contraction



March 12 2015

16


-50

-40

-30

-20

-10

0

10

20

Ap

r-9

7

De

c-9

7

Au

g-9

8

Ap

r-9

9

De

c-9

9

Au

g-0

0

Ap

r-0

1

De

c-0

1

Au

g-0

2

Ap

r-0

3

De

c-0

3

Au

g-0

4

Apr-

05

De

c-0

5

Au

g-0

6

Ap

r-0

7

De

c-0

7

Au

g-0

8

Ap

r-0

9

De

c-0

9

Au

g-1

0

Apr-

11

De

c-1

1

Au

g-1

2

Ap

r-1

3

De

c-1

3

Au

g-1

4

Greece Eurozone





250

350

450

550

650

750

850

950

2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015

EU-17 (mean)

Greece

min-all countries

max-all countries


0

1

2

3

4

5

6

7

8

9

Ele

cto

ral

Pro

ce

ss

Acce

ss to

Info

rmation

Civ

il rig

hts

Rule

of L

aw

Econo

mic

polic

ies

So

cia

lS

usta

ina

bili

ty

En

vir

onm

en

tal

Su

sta

ina

bili

ty

Executive

Cap

acity

Executive

Acco

un

tabili

ty

Greece Euro area


0

20

40

60

80

100

Sta

rtin

g a

Bu

sin

ess

Dea

ling w

ith

Con

str

uction

Pe

rmits

Reg

iste

rin

gP

rope

rty

Ge

ttin

g C

red

it

Pro

tectin

gIn

ve

sto

rs

Pa

yin

g T

axe

s

Tra

din

g A

cro

ss

Bo

rde

rs

En

forc

ing

Co

ntr

acts

Reso

lvin

gIn

so

lve

ncy

DB 2005 DB 2015

March 12 2015

17


020406080

100120140160

Institu

tio

ns

Infr

astr

uctu

re

Ma

cro

eco

no

mic

en

vir

onm

ent

He

alth

an

dp

rim

ary

ed

uca

tio

n

Hig

he

re

du

ca

tio

n a

nd

tra

inin

g

Go

od

s m

ark

et

eff

icie

ncy

La

bor

ma

rke

te

ffic

ien

cy

Fin

ancia

l m

ark

et

de

ve

lop

me

nt

Te

ch

no

log

ica

lre

ad

ine

ss

Ma

rke

t siz

e

Bu

sin

ess

so

ph

istica

tio

n

Inn

ova

tio

n


March 12 2015

18

































March 12 2015

7

Appendix I



-1

0

1

2

3

4

-1

0

1

2

3

4

Subs

idie

s

Oth

er c

urre

nttr

ansf

ers

Cap

ital

tran

sfer

s

Gro

ss c

apit

alfo

rmat

ion

Inte

rest

Com

pens

atio

n of

empl

oyee

s

Inte

rmed

iate

cons

umpt

ion

Soci

al b

enef

its


-1

0

1

2

3

4

-1

0

1

2

3

4

Prop

erty

inco

me

Oth

er cu

rren

ttr

ansf

ers

Soci

alco

ntrib

utio

ns

Capi

tal t

rans

fers

Sale

s

Prod

uctio

nampim

port

taxe

s

Inco

meamp

wea

lthta

xes




2010 2011 2012 2013 2014



hysteresis-168 -186 -163 -132 -72

Memorandum items







March 12 2015

8

Appendix II





+ β











-16

-14

-12

-10

-08

-06

-04

-02

00













March 12 2015

9


Greece





900

11500

200

400

600

800

1000

1200

19

98

19

99

20

00

20

01

20

02

20

03

20

04

20

05

20

06

20

07

20

08

20

09

20

10

20

11

20

12

20

13

20

14(f

)



Greece



Greece


325

467

0

10

20

30

40

50

19

93

19

94

19

95

19

96

19

97

19

98

19

99

20

00

20

01

20

02

20

03

20

04

20

05

20

06

20

07

20

08

20

09

20

10

20

11

20

12

20

13

20

14

20

15

20

16

Greece Euro area





70

80

90

100

110

120

130

140

150

2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016

Ireland

Greece

Spain

Latvia

Portugal


March 12 2015

10



-50

00

50

100

150

200

250

20

01

20

02

20

03

20

04

20

05

20

06

20

07

20

08

20

09

20

10

20

11

20

12

20

13



-100

-50

00

50

100

150

19

98

19

99

20

00

20

01

20

02

20

03

20

04

20

05

20

06

20

07

20

08

20

09

20

10

20

11

20

12

20

13

20

14

Euro area Greece





0

20

40

60

80

100

120

140

160

Lhellip

IE Mhellip

Shellip

Bhellip

Ehellip

Hhellip

Nhellip

Chellip

SI Lhellip

Bhellip

Ahellip

Lhellip

Dhellip

Chellip

Chellip

Shellip

Mhellip

Khellip

Nhellip

IS FI Hhellip

Mhellip

Dhellip

Phellip

Chellip

Rhellip

Phellip

Rhellip

Nhellip

Mhellip

Ghellip

Ehellip

IT Fhellip

Thellip

Ghellip

Ahellip

Jhellip

Uhellip

230


00

02

04

06

08

10

12

14

16

19

95

19

96

19

97

19

98

19

99

20

00

20

01

20

02

20

03

20

04

20

05

20

06

20

07

20

08

20

09

20

10

20

11

20

12

20

13

Services

Goods

Goods ampServices


March 12 2015

11


exports)




00

100

200

300

400

500

Fo

od

amp liv

ea

nim

als

Be

ve

rag

es amp

tob

acco

Cru

de

ma

teri

als

exce

pt

fue

ls

Min

era

l fu

els

lu

brica

nts

ampre

late

d m

ate

ria

ls

An

ima

l amp

ve

ge

tab

le o

ils

fats

and

wa

xe

s

Ch

em

ica

ls amp

rela

ted

pro

du

cts

(ne

s)

Ma

nu

factu

red

go

od

s c

lassifie

dch

iefly b

y m

ate

ria

l

Ma

ch

ine

ry a

nd

tra

nsp

ort

atio

ne

qu

ipm

en

t

Mic

hella

neo

us

ma

nufa

ctu

rin

ga

rtic

les Oth

er

1998 2013

Manufacturing


00

100

200

300

400

500

600

Tra

nspo

rtation

(ma

inly

sh

ippin

g)

Tra

vel (m

ain

lyto

urism

)

Co

mm

unic

atio

ns


Insu

rance

Mo

neta

ry

IT s

erv

ices

Ro

ya

ltie

s

Oth

er

busin

ess

serv

ices

1998

2013





00

100

200

300

400

500

600

700

2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013

ΕU-27

Germany

Greece


March 12 2015

12




(SITC Rev4)


0

2

4

6

8

10

0 -

Fo

od

11

- B

eve

rages

12

- T

oba

cco

65

- T

extile

yarn

fa

brics

and

rela

ted

pro

ducts

84

- A

rtic

les o

fap

pare

l an

d c

loth

ing

accesso

ries

85

- F

ootw

ear

61

- L

ea

the

r le

ath

er

ma

nufa

ctu

res

63

- C

ork

an

d w

ood

ma

nufa

ctu

res

64

- P

aper

pa

perb

oard

and

rela

ted

pro

ducts

33

- P

etr

ole

um

pe

trole

um

pro

du

cts

an

d r

ela

ted m

ate

rials

5 -

Chem

icals

and

rela

ted

pro

ducts

54

- M

edic

inal an

dph

arm

ace

utica

lpro

ducts

62

- R

ub

ber

ma

nufa

ctu

res

2008

2013

0

1

2

3

4

5

6

66

- N

on

-me

talli

cm

ine

ral

ma

nufa

ctu

res

ne

s

69

- M

an

ufa

ctu

res o

fm

eta

ls

ne

s

2 -

Cru

de

ma

teria

ls

ine

dib

le

exce

pt

fue

ls

3 -

Min

era

l fu

els

lu

brica

nts

and

rela

ted

ma

teria

ls

4 -

An

ima

l a

nd

ve

ge

tab

le o

ils

fats

an

d w

axe

s

6 -

Ma

nu

factu

red

go

od

s c

lassifie

dch

iefly b

y m

ate

ria

l

7 -

Ma

ch

inery

an

dtr

an

sp

ort

eq

uip

me

nt

8 -

Mis

ce

llan

eou

sm

an

ufa

ctu

red

art

icle

s

82

- F

urn

itu

re

2008

2013




(Greece vs EU-27)

Greece

-10

-08

-06

-04

-02

00

Ma

nufa

ctu

red

goo

ds

(SIT

C 5

to

8 less 6

67

an

d 6

8)

Ch

em

ica

l p

rodu

cts

(SIT

C 5

)

Ma

ch

ine

ry a

nd

tra

nsp

ort

eq

uip

me

nt

(SIT

C 7

)

Ele

ctr

on

ic e

xclu

din

gp

art

s a

nd

co

mp

on

en

ts (

SIT

C7

51

+ 7

52

+ 7

61

+7

62

+ 7

63

+ 7

75

)

Oth

er

man

ufa

ctu

red

go

ods (

SIT

C 6

+ 8

less 6

67 a

nd

68)

1995 2012



March 12 2015

13


(Greece vs EU-27)

EU-27

-02

-02

-01

-01

00

01

01

02M

anufa

ctu

red

goo

ds

(SIT

C 5

to

8 less 6

67

an

d 6

8)

Ch

em

ica

l p

rodu

cts

(SIT

C 5

)

Ma

ch

inery

and

tran

sp

ort

eq

uip

me

nt

(SIT

C 7

)

Ele

ctr

on

ic e

xclu

din

gpa

rts a

nd

com

pone

nts

(S

ITC

75

1 +

75

2 +

76

1 +

76

2 +

76

3 +

77

5)

Oth

er

man

ufa

ctu

red

go

ods (

SIT

C 6

+ 8

less 6

67 a

nd

68)

1995 2012




0

10

20

30

40

50

60

1991 1992 1993 1994 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013

Greece

World

EU-28


00

50

100

150

200

250

1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013





March 12 2015

14




0

5

10

15

20

25

30

35

40

201320122011201020092008200720062005200420032002200120001999199819971996


Non EU Countries

Euro Area










March 12 2015

15





00

20

40

60

80

100

120

140

160

180

200

1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013





008

009

010

011

012

013

014

015

1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012

Greece - Eurozone

Greece - ΕU27




488 Oct

35

40

45

50

55

60

Ja

n-0

5

Ju

n-0

5

No

v-0

5

Ap

r-0

6

Se

p-0

6

Fe

b-0

7

Ju

l-0

7

De

c-0

7

Ma

y-0

8

Oct-

08

Ma

r-0

9

Au

g-0

9

Ja

n-1

0

Ju

n-1

0

No

v-1

0

Ap

r-1

1

Se

p-1

1

Fe

b-1

2

Ju

l-1

2

De

c-1

2

Ma

y-1

3

Oct-

13

Ma

r-1

4

Au

g-1

4

Expansion

Contraction



March 12 2015

16


-50

-40

-30

-20

-10

0

10

20

Ap

r-9

7

De

c-9

7

Au

g-9

8

Ap

r-9

9

De

c-9

9

Au

g-0

0

Ap

r-0

1

De

c-0

1

Au

g-0

2

Ap

r-0

3

De

c-0

3

Au

g-0

4

Apr-

05

De

c-0

5

Au

g-0

6

Ap

r-0

7

De

c-0

7

Au

g-0

8

Ap

r-0

9

De

c-0

9

Au

g-1

0

Apr-

11

De

c-1

1

Au

g-1

2

Ap

r-1

3

De

c-1

3

Au

g-1

4

Greece Eurozone





250

350

450

550

650

750

850

950

2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015

EU-17 (mean)

Greece

min-all countries

max-all countries


0

1

2

3

4

5

6

7

8

9

Ele

cto

ral

Pro

ce

ss

Acce

ss to

Info

rmation

Civ

il rig

hts

Rule

of L

aw

Econo

mic

polic

ies

So

cia

lS

usta

ina

bili

ty

En

vir

onm

en

tal

Su

sta

ina

bili

ty

Executive

Cap

acity

Executive

Acco

un

tabili

ty

Greece Euro area


0

20

40

60

80

100

Sta

rtin

g a

Bu

sin

ess

Dea

ling w

ith

Con

str

uction

Pe

rmits

Reg

iste

rin

gP

rope

rty

Ge

ttin

g C

red

it

Pro

tectin

gIn

ve

sto

rs

Pa

yin

g T

axe

s

Tra

din

g A

cro

ss

Bo

rde

rs

En

forc

ing

Co

ntr

acts

Reso

lvin

gIn

so

lve

ncy

DB 2005 DB 2015

March 12 2015

17


020406080

100120140160

Institu

tio

ns

Infr

astr

uctu

re

Ma

cro

eco

no

mic

en

vir

onm

ent

He

alth

an

dp

rim

ary

ed

uca

tio

n

Hig

he

re

du

ca

tio

n a

nd

tra

inin

g

Go

od

s m

ark

et

eff

icie

ncy

La

bor

ma

rke

te

ffic

ien

cy

Fin

ancia

l m

ark

et

de

ve

lop

me

nt

Te

ch

no

log

ica

lre

ad

ine

ss

Ma

rke

t siz

e

Bu

sin

ess

so

ph

istica

tio

n

Inn

ova

tio

n


March 12 2015

18

































March 12 2015

8

Appendix II





+ β











-16

-14

-12

-10

-08

-06

-04

-02

00













March 12 2015

9


Greece





900

11500

200

400

600

800

1000

1200

19

98

19

99

20

00

20

01

20

02

20

03

20

04

20

05

20

06

20

07

20

08

20

09

20

10

20

11

20

12

20

13

20

14(f

)



Greece



Greece


325

467

0

10

20

30

40

50

19

93

19

94

19

95

19

96

19

97

19

98

19

99

20

00

20

01

20

02

20

03

20

04

20

05

20

06

20

07

20

08

20

09

20

10

20

11

20

12

20

13

20

14

20

15

20

16

Greece Euro area





70

80

90

100

110

120

130

140

150

2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016

Ireland

Greece

Spain

Latvia

Portugal


March 12 2015

10



-50

00

50

100

150

200

250

20

01

20

02

20

03

20

04

20

05

20

06

20

07

20

08

20

09

20

10

20

11

20

12

20

13



-100

-50

00

50

100

150

19

98

19

99

20

00

20

01

20

02

20

03

20

04

20

05

20

06

20

07

20

08

20

09

20

10

20

11

20

12

20

13

20

14

Euro area Greece





0

20

40

60

80

100

120

140

160

Lhellip

IE Mhellip

Shellip

Bhellip

Ehellip

Hhellip

Nhellip

Chellip

SI Lhellip

Bhellip

Ahellip

Lhellip

Dhellip

Chellip

Chellip

Shellip

Mhellip

Khellip

Nhellip

IS FI Hhellip

Mhellip

Dhellip

Phellip

Chellip

Rhellip

Phellip

Rhellip

Nhellip

Mhellip

Ghellip

Ehellip

IT Fhellip

Thellip

Ghellip

Ahellip

Jhellip

Uhellip

230


00

02

04

06

08

10

12

14

16

19

95

19

96

19

97

19

98

19

99

20

00

20

01

20

02

20

03

20

04

20

05

20

06

20

07

20

08

20

09

20

10

20

11

20

12

20

13

Services

Goods

Goods ampServices


March 12 2015

11


exports)




00

100

200

300

400

500

Fo

od

amp liv

ea

nim

als

Be

ve

rag

es amp

tob

acco

Cru

de

ma

teri

als

exce

pt

fue

ls

Min

era

l fu

els

lu

brica

nts

ampre

late

d m

ate

ria

ls

An

ima

l amp

ve

ge

tab

le o

ils

fats

and

wa

xe

s

Ch

em

ica

ls amp

rela

ted

pro

du

cts

(ne

s)

Ma

nu

factu

red

go

od

s c

lassifie

dch

iefly b

y m

ate

ria

l

Ma

ch

ine

ry a

nd

tra

nsp

ort

atio

ne

qu

ipm

en

t

Mic

hella

neo

us

ma

nufa

ctu

rin

ga

rtic

les Oth

er

1998 2013

Manufacturing


00

100

200

300

400

500

600

Tra

nspo

rtation

(ma

inly

sh

ippin

g)

Tra

vel (m

ain

lyto

urism

)

Co

mm

unic

atio

ns


Insu

rance

Mo

neta

ry

IT s

erv

ices

Ro

ya

ltie

s

Oth

er

busin

ess

serv

ices

1998

2013





00

100

200

300

400

500

600

700

2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013

ΕU-27

Germany

Greece


March 12 2015

12




(SITC Rev4)


0

2

4

6

8

10

0 -

Fo

od

11

- B

eve

rages

12

- T

oba

cco

65

- T

extile

yarn

fa

brics

and

rela

ted

pro

ducts

84

- A

rtic

les o

fap

pare

l an

d c

loth

ing

accesso

ries

85

- F

ootw

ear

61

- L

ea

the

r le

ath

er

ma

nufa

ctu

res

63

- C

ork

an

d w

ood

ma

nufa

ctu

res

64

- P

aper

pa

perb

oard

and

rela

ted

pro

ducts

33

- P

etr

ole

um

pe

trole

um

pro

du

cts

an

d r

ela

ted m

ate

rials

5 -

Chem

icals

and

rela

ted

pro

ducts

54

- M

edic

inal an

dph

arm

ace

utica

lpro

ducts

62

- R

ub

ber

ma

nufa

ctu

res

2008

2013

0

1

2

3

4

5

6

66

- N

on

-me

talli

cm

ine

ral

ma

nufa

ctu

res

ne

s

69

- M

an

ufa

ctu

res o

fm

eta

ls

ne

s

2 -

Cru

de

ma

teria

ls

ine

dib

le

exce

pt

fue

ls

3 -

Min

era

l fu

els

lu

brica

nts

and

rela

ted

ma

teria

ls

4 -

An

ima

l a

nd

ve

ge

tab

le o

ils

fats

an

d w

axe

s

6 -

Ma

nu

factu

red

go

od

s c

lassifie

dch

iefly b

y m

ate

ria

l

7 -

Ma

ch

inery

an

dtr

an

sp

ort

eq

uip

me

nt

8 -

Mis

ce

llan

eou

sm

an

ufa

ctu

red

art

icle

s

82

- F

urn

itu

re

2008

2013




(Greece vs EU-27)

Greece

-10

-08

-06

-04

-02

00

Ma

nufa

ctu

red

goo

ds

(SIT

C 5

to

8 less 6

67

an

d 6

8)

Ch

em

ica

l p

rodu

cts

(SIT

C 5

)

Ma

ch

ine

ry a

nd

tra

nsp

ort

eq

uip

me

nt

(SIT

C 7

)

Ele

ctr

on

ic e

xclu

din

gp

art

s a

nd

co

mp

on

en

ts (

SIT

C7

51

+ 7

52

+ 7

61

+7

62

+ 7

63

+ 7

75

)

Oth

er

man

ufa

ctu

red

go

ods (

SIT

C 6

+ 8

less 6

67 a

nd

68)

1995 2012



March 12 2015

13


(Greece vs EU-27)

EU-27

-02

-02

-01

-01

00

01

01

02M

anufa

ctu

red

goo

ds

(SIT

C 5

to

8 less 6

67

an

d 6

8)

Ch

em

ica

l p

rodu

cts

(SIT

C 5

)

Ma

ch

inery

and

tran

sp

ort

eq

uip

me

nt

(SIT

C 7

)

Ele

ctr

on

ic e

xclu

din

gpa

rts a

nd

com

pone

nts

(S

ITC

75

1 +

75

2 +

76

1 +

76

2 +

76

3 +

77

5)

Oth

er

man

ufa

ctu

red

go

ods (

SIT

C 6

+ 8

less 6

67 a

nd

68)

1995 2012




0

10

20

30

40

50

60

1991 1992 1993 1994 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013

Greece

World

EU-28


00

50

100

150

200

250

1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013





March 12 2015

14




0

5

10

15

20

25

30

35

40

201320122011201020092008200720062005200420032002200120001999199819971996


Non EU Countries

Euro Area










March 12 2015

15





00

20

40

60

80

100

120

140

160

180

200

1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013





008

009

010

011

012

013

014

015

1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012

Greece - Eurozone

Greece - ΕU27




488 Oct

35

40

45

50

55

60

Ja

n-0

5

Ju

n-0

5

No

v-0

5

Ap

r-0

6

Se

p-0

6

Fe

b-0

7

Ju

l-0

7

De

c-0

7

Ma

y-0

8

Oct-

08

Ma

r-0

9

Au

g-0

9

Ja

n-1

0

Ju

n-1

0

No

v-1

0

Ap

r-1

1

Se

p-1

1

Fe

b-1

2

Ju

l-1

2

De

c-1

2

Ma

y-1

3

Oct-

13

Ma

r-1

4

Au

g-1

4

Expansion

Contraction



March 12 2015

16


-50

-40

-30

-20

-10

0

10

20

Ap

r-9

7

De

c-9

7

Au

g-9

8

Ap

r-9

9

De

c-9

9

Au

g-0

0

Ap

r-0

1

De

c-0

1

Au

g-0

2

Ap

r-0

3

De

c-0

3

Au

g-0

4

Apr-

05

De

c-0

5

Au

g-0

6

Ap

r-0

7

De

c-0

7

Au

g-0

8

Ap

r-0

9

De

c-0

9

Au

g-1

0

Apr-

11

De

c-1

1

Au

g-1

2

Ap

r-1

3

De

c-1

3

Au

g-1

4

Greece Eurozone





250

350

450

550

650

750

850

950

2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015

EU-17 (mean)

Greece

min-all countries

max-all countries


0

1

2

3

4

5

6

7

8

9

Ele

cto

ral

Pro

ce

ss

Acce

ss to

Info

rmation

Civ

il rig

hts

Rule

of L

aw

Econo

mic

polic

ies

So

cia

lS

usta

ina

bili

ty

En

vir

onm

en

tal

Su

sta

ina

bili

ty

Executive

Cap

acity

Executive

Acco

un

tabili

ty

Greece Euro area


0

20

40

60

80

100

Sta

rtin

g a

Bu

sin

ess

Dea

ling w

ith

Con

str

uction

Pe

rmits

Reg

iste

rin

gP

rope

rty

Ge

ttin

g C

red

it

Pro

tectin

gIn

ve

sto

rs

Pa

yin

g T

axe

s

Tra

din

g A

cro

ss

Bo

rde

rs

En

forc

ing

Co

ntr

acts

Reso

lvin

gIn

so

lve

ncy

DB 2005 DB 2015

March 12 2015

17


020406080

100120140160

Institu

tio

ns

Infr

astr

uctu

re

Ma

cro

eco

no

mic

en

vir

onm

ent

He

alth

an

dp

rim

ary

ed

uca

tio

n

Hig

he

re

du

ca

tio

n a

nd

tra

inin

g

Go

od

s m

ark

et

eff

icie

ncy

La

bor

ma

rke

te

ffic

ien

cy

Fin

ancia

l m

ark

et

de

ve

lop

me

nt

Te

ch

no

log

ica

lre

ad

ine

ss

Ma

rke

t siz

e

Bu

sin

ess

so

ph

istica

tio

n

Inn

ova

tio

n


March 12 2015

18

































March 12 2015

9


Greece





900

11500

200

400

600

800

1000

1200

19

98

19

99

20

00

20

01

20

02

20

03

20

04

20

05

20

06

20

07

20

08

20

09

20

10

20

11

20

12

20

13

20

14(f

)



Greece



Greece


325

467

0

10

20

30

40

50

19

93

19

94

19

95

19

96

19

97

19

98

19

99

20

00

20

01

20

02

20

03

20

04

20

05

20

06

20

07

20

08

20

09

20

10

20

11

20

12

20

13

20

14

20

15

20

16

Greece Euro area





70

80

90

100

110

120

130

140

150

2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016

Ireland

Greece

Spain

Latvia

Portugal


March 12 2015

10



-50

00

50

100

150

200

250

20

01

20

02

20

03

20

04

20

05

20

06

20

07

20

08

20

09

20

10

20

11

20

12

20

13



-100

-50

00

50

100

150

19

98

19

99

20

00

20

01

20

02

20

03

20

04

20

05

20

06

20

07

20

08

20

09

20

10

20

11

20

12

20

13

20

14

Euro area Greece





0

20

40

60

80

100

120

140

160

Lhellip

IE Mhellip

Shellip

Bhellip

Ehellip

Hhellip

Nhellip

Chellip

SI Lhellip

Bhellip

Ahellip

Lhellip

Dhellip

Chellip

Chellip

Shellip

Mhellip

Khellip

Nhellip

IS FI Hhellip

Mhellip

Dhellip

Phellip

Chellip

Rhellip

Phellip

Rhellip

Nhellip

Mhellip

Ghellip

Ehellip

IT Fhellip

Thellip

Ghellip

Ahellip

Jhellip

Uhellip

230


00

02

04

06

08

10

12

14

16

19

95

19

96

19

97

19

98

19

99

20

00

20

01

20

02

20

03

20

04

20

05

20

06

20

07

20

08

20

09

20

10

20

11

20

12

20

13

Services

Goods

Goods ampServices


March 12 2015

11


exports)




00

100

200

300

400

500

Fo

od

amp liv

ea

nim

als

Be

ve

rag

es amp

tob

acco

Cru

de

ma

teri

als

exce

pt

fue

ls

Min

era

l fu

els

lu

brica

nts

ampre

late

d m

ate

ria

ls

An

ima

l amp

ve

ge

tab

le o

ils

fats

and

wa

xe

s

Ch

em

ica

ls amp

rela

ted

pro

du

cts

(ne

s)

Ma

nu

factu

red

go

od

s c

lassifie

dch

iefly b

y m

ate

ria

l

Ma

ch

ine

ry a

nd

tra

nsp

ort

atio

ne

qu

ipm

en

t

Mic

hella

neo

us

ma

nufa

ctu

rin

ga

rtic

les Oth

er

1998 2013

Manufacturing


00

100

200

300

400

500

600

Tra

nspo

rtation

(ma

inly

sh

ippin

g)

Tra

vel (m

ain

lyto

urism

)

Co

mm

unic

atio

ns


Insu

rance

Mo

neta

ry

IT s

erv

ices

Ro

ya

ltie

s

Oth

er

busin

ess

serv

ices

1998

2013





00

100

200

300

400

500

600

700

2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013

ΕU-27

Germany

Greece


March 12 2015

12




(SITC Rev4)


0

2

4

6

8

10

0 -

Fo

od

11

- B

eve

rages

12

- T

oba

cco

65

- T

extile

yarn

fa

brics

and

rela

ted

pro

ducts

84

- A

rtic

les o

fap

pare

l an

d c

loth

ing

accesso

ries

85

- F

ootw

ear

61

- L

ea

the

r le

ath

er

ma

nufa

ctu

res

63

- C

ork

an

d w

ood

ma

nufa

ctu

res

64

- P

aper

pa

perb

oard

and

rela

ted

pro

ducts

33

- P

etr

ole

um

pe

trole

um

pro

du

cts

an

d r

ela

ted m

ate

rials

5 -

Chem

icals

and

rela

ted

pro

ducts

54

- M

edic

inal an

dph

arm

ace

utica

lpro

ducts

62

- R

ub

ber

ma

nufa

ctu

res

2008

2013

0

1

2

3

4

5

6

66

- N

on

-me

talli

cm

ine

ral

ma

nufa

ctu

res

ne

s

69

- M

an

ufa

ctu

res o

fm

eta

ls

ne

s

2 -

Cru

de

ma

teria

ls

ine

dib

le

exce

pt

fue

ls

3 -

Min

era

l fu

els

lu

brica

nts

and

rela

ted

ma

teria

ls

4 -

An

ima

l a

nd

ve

ge

tab

le o

ils

fats

an

d w

axe

s

6 -

Ma

nu

factu

red

go

od

s c

lassifie

dch

iefly b

y m

ate

ria

l

7 -

Ma

ch

inery

an

dtr

an

sp

ort

eq

uip

me

nt

8 -

Mis

ce

llan

eou

sm

an

ufa

ctu

red

art

icle

s

82

- F

urn

itu

re

2008

2013




(Greece vs EU-27)

Greece

-10

-08

-06

-04

-02

00

Ma

nufa

ctu

red

goo

ds

(SIT

C 5

to

8 less 6

67

an

d 6

8)

Ch

em

ica

l p

rodu

cts

(SIT

C 5

)

Ma

ch

ine

ry a

nd

tra

nsp

ort

eq

uip

me

nt

(SIT

C 7

)

Ele

ctr

on

ic e

xclu

din

gp

art

s a

nd

co

mp

on

en

ts (

SIT

C7

51

+ 7

52

+ 7

61

+7

62

+ 7

63

+ 7

75

)

Oth

er

man

ufa

ctu

red

go

ods (

SIT

C 6

+ 8

less 6

67 a

nd

68)

1995 2012



March 12 2015

13


(Greece vs EU-27)

EU-27

-02

-02

-01

-01

00

01

01

02M

anufa

ctu

red

goo

ds

(SIT

C 5

to

8 less 6

67

an

d 6

8)

Ch

em

ica

l p

rodu

cts

(SIT

C 5

)

Ma

ch

inery

and

tran

sp

ort

eq

uip

me

nt

(SIT

C 7

)

Ele

ctr

on

ic e

xclu

din

gpa

rts a

nd

com

pone

nts

(S

ITC

75

1 +

75

2 +

76

1 +

76

2 +

76

3 +

77

5)

Oth

er

man

ufa

ctu

red

go

ods (

SIT

C 6

+ 8

less 6

67 a

nd

68)

1995 2012




0

10

20

30

40

50

60

1991 1992 1993 1994 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013

Greece

World

EU-28


00

50

100

150

200

250

1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013





March 12 2015

14




0

5

10

15

20

25

30

35

40

201320122011201020092008200720062005200420032002200120001999199819971996


Non EU Countries

Euro Area










March 12 2015

15





00

20

40

60

80

100

120

140

160

180

200

1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013





008

009

010

011

012

013

014

015

1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012

Greece - Eurozone

Greece - ΕU27




488 Oct

35

40

45

50

55

60

Ja

n-0

5

Ju

n-0

5

No

v-0

5

Ap

r-0

6

Se

p-0

6

Fe

b-0

7

Ju

l-0

7

De

c-0

7

Ma

y-0

8

Oct-

08

Ma

r-0

9

Au

g-0

9

Ja

n-1

0

Ju

n-1

0

No

v-1

0

Ap

r-1

1

Se

p-1

1

Fe

b-1

2

Ju

l-1

2

De

c-1

2

Ma

y-1

3

Oct-

13

Ma

r-1

4

Au

g-1

4

Expansion

Contraction



March 12 2015

16


-50

-40

-30

-20

-10

0

10

20

Ap

r-9

7

De

c-9

7

Au

g-9

8

Ap

r-9

9

De

c-9

9

Au

g-0

0

Ap

r-0

1

De

c-0

1

Au

g-0

2

Ap

r-0

3

De

c-0

3

Au

g-0

4

Apr-

05

De

c-0

5

Au

g-0

6

Ap

r-0

7

De

c-0

7

Au

g-0

8

Ap

r-0

9

De

c-0

9

Au

g-1

0

Apr-

11

De

c-1

1

Au

g-1

2

Ap

r-1

3

De

c-1

3

Au

g-1

4

Greece Eurozone





250

350

450

550

650

750

850

950

2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015

EU-17 (mean)

Greece

min-all countries

max-all countries


0

1

2

3

4

5

6

7

8

9

Ele

cto

ral

Pro

ce

ss

Acce

ss to

Info

rmation

Civ

il rig

hts

Rule

of L

aw

Econo

mic

polic

ies

So

cia

lS

usta

ina

bili

ty

En

vir

onm

en

tal

Su

sta

ina

bili

ty

Executive

Cap

acity

Executive

Acco

un

tabili

ty

Greece Euro area


0

20

40

60

80

100

Sta

rtin

g a

Bu

sin

ess

Dea

ling w

ith

Con

str

uction

Pe

rmits

Reg

iste

rin

gP

rope

rty

Ge

ttin

g C

red

it

Pro

tectin

gIn

ve

sto

rs

Pa

yin

g T

axe

s

Tra

din

g A

cro

ss

Bo

rde

rs

En

forc

ing

Co

ntr

acts

Reso

lvin

gIn

so

lve

ncy

DB 2005 DB 2015

March 12 2015

17


020406080

100120140160

Institu

tio

ns

Infr

astr

uctu

re

Ma

cro

eco

no

mic

en

vir

onm

ent

He

alth

an

dp

rim

ary

ed

uca

tio

n

Hig

he

re

du

ca

tio

n a

nd

tra

inin

g

Go

od

s m

ark

et

eff

icie

ncy

La

bor

ma

rke

te

ffic

ien

cy

Fin

ancia

l m

ark

et

de

ve

lop

me

nt

Te

ch

no

log

ica

lre

ad

ine

ss

Ma

rke

t siz

e

Bu

sin

ess

so

ph

istica

tio

n

Inn

ova

tio

n


March 12 2015

18

































March 12 2015

10



-50

00

50

100

150

200

250

20

01

20

02

20

03

20

04

20

05

20

06

20

07

20

08

20

09

20

10

20

11

20

12

20

13



-100

-50

00

50

100

150

19

98

19

99

20

00

20

01

20

02

20

03

20

04

20

05

20

06

20

07

20

08

20

09

20

10

20

11

20

12

20

13

20

14

Euro area Greece





0

20

40

60

80

100

120

140

160

Lhellip

IE Mhellip

Shellip

Bhellip

Ehellip

Hhellip

Nhellip

Chellip

SI Lhellip

Bhellip

Ahellip

Lhellip

Dhellip

Chellip

Chellip

Shellip

Mhellip

Khellip

Nhellip

IS FI Hhellip

Mhellip

Dhellip

Phellip

Chellip

Rhellip

Phellip

Rhellip

Nhellip

Mhellip

Ghellip

Ehellip

IT Fhellip

Thellip

Ghellip

Ahellip

Jhellip

Uhellip

230


00

02

04

06

08

10

12

14

16

19

95

19

96

19

97

19

98

19

99

20

00

20

01

20

02

20

03

20

04

20

05

20

06

20

07

20

08

20

09

20

10

20

11

20

12

20

13

Services

Goods

Goods ampServices


March 12 2015

11


exports)




00

100

200

300

400

500

Fo

od

amp liv

ea

nim

als

Be

ve

rag

es amp

tob

acco

Cru

de

ma

teri

als

exce

pt

fue

ls

Min

era

l fu

els

lu

brica

nts

ampre

late

d m

ate

ria

ls

An

ima

l amp

ve

ge

tab

le o

ils

fats

and

wa

xe

s

Ch

em

ica

ls amp

rela

ted

pro

du

cts

(ne

s)

Ma

nu

factu

red

go

od

s c

lassifie

dch

iefly b

y m

ate

ria

l

Ma

ch

ine

ry a

nd

tra

nsp

ort

atio

ne

qu

ipm

en

t

Mic

hella

neo

us

ma

nufa

ctu

rin

ga

rtic

les Oth

er

1998 2013

Manufacturing


00

100

200

300

400

500

600

Tra

nspo

rtation

(ma

inly

sh

ippin

g)

Tra

vel (m

ain

lyto

urism

)

Co

mm

unic

atio

ns


Insu

rance

Mo

neta

ry

IT s

erv

ices

Ro

ya

ltie

s

Oth

er

busin

ess

serv

ices

1998

2013





00

100

200

300

400

500

600

700

2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013

ΕU-27

Germany

Greece


March 12 2015

12




(SITC Rev4)


0

2

4

6

8

10

0 -

Fo

od

11

- B

eve

rages

12

- T

oba

cco

65

- T

extile

yarn

fa

brics

and

rela

ted

pro

ducts

84

- A

rtic

les o

fap

pare

l an

d c

loth

ing

accesso

ries

85

- F

ootw

ear

61

- L

ea

the

r le

ath

er

ma

nufa

ctu

res

63

- C

ork

an

d w

ood

ma

nufa

ctu

res

64

- P

aper

pa

perb

oard

and

rela

ted

pro

ducts

33

- P

etr

ole

um

pe

trole

um

pro

du

cts

an

d r

ela

ted m

ate

rials

5 -

Chem

icals

and

rela

ted

pro

ducts

54

- M

edic

inal an

dph

arm

ace

utica

lpro

ducts

62

- R

ub

ber

ma

nufa

ctu

res

2008

2013

0

1

2

3

4

5

6

66

- N

on

-me

talli

cm

ine

ral

ma

nufa

ctu

res

ne

s

69

- M

an

ufa

ctu

res o

fm

eta

ls

ne

s

2 -

Cru

de

ma

teria

ls

ine

dib

le

exce

pt

fue

ls

3 -

Min

era

l fu

els

lu

brica

nts

and

rela

ted

ma

teria

ls

4 -

An

ima

l a

nd

ve

ge

tab

le o

ils

fats

an

d w

axe

s

6 -

Ma

nu

factu

red

go

od

s c

lassifie

dch

iefly b

y m

ate

ria

l

7 -

Ma

ch

inery

an

dtr

an

sp

ort

eq

uip

me

nt

8 -

Mis

ce

llan

eou

sm

an

ufa

ctu

red

art

icle

s

82

- F

urn

itu

re

2008

2013




(Greece vs EU-27)

Greece

-10

-08

-06

-04

-02

00

Ma

nufa

ctu

red

goo

ds

(SIT

C 5

to

8 less 6

67

an

d 6

8)

Ch

em

ica

l p

rodu

cts

(SIT

C 5

)

Ma

ch

ine

ry a

nd

tra

nsp

ort

eq

uip

me

nt

(SIT

C 7

)

Ele

ctr

on

ic e

xclu

din

gp

art

s a

nd

co

mp

on

en

ts (

SIT

C7

51

+ 7

52

+ 7

61

+7

62

+ 7

63

+ 7

75

)

Oth

er

man

ufa

ctu

red

go

ods (

SIT

C 6

+ 8

less 6

67 a

nd

68)

1995 2012



March 12 2015

13


(Greece vs EU-27)

EU-27

-02

-02

-01

-01

00

01

01

02M

anufa

ctu

red

goo

ds

(SIT

C 5

to

8 less 6

67

an

d 6

8)

Ch

em

ica

l p

rodu

cts

(SIT

C 5

)

Ma

ch

inery

and

tran

sp

ort

eq

uip

me

nt

(SIT

C 7

)

Ele

ctr

on

ic e

xclu

din

gpa

rts a

nd

com

pone

nts

(S

ITC

75

1 +

75

2 +

76

1 +

76

2 +

76

3 +

77

5)

Oth

er

man

ufa

ctu

red

go

ods (

SIT

C 6

+ 8

less 6

67 a

nd

68)

1995 2012




0

10

20

30

40

50

60

1991 1992 1993 1994 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013

Greece

World

EU-28


00

50

100

150

200

250

1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013





March 12 2015

14




0

5

10

15

20

25

30

35

40

201320122011201020092008200720062005200420032002200120001999199819971996


Non EU Countries

Euro Area










March 12 2015

15





00

20

40

60

80

100

120

140

160

180

200

1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013





008

009

010

011

012

013

014

015

1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012

Greece - Eurozone

Greece - ΕU27




488 Oct

35

40

45

50

55

60

Ja

n-0

5

Ju

n-0

5

No

v-0

5

Ap

r-0

6

Se

p-0

6

Fe

b-0

7

Ju

l-0

7

De

c-0

7

Ma

y-0

8

Oct-

08

Ma

r-0

9

Au

g-0

9

Ja

n-1

0

Ju

n-1

0

No

v-1

0

Ap

r-1

1

Se

p-1

1

Fe

b-1

2

Ju

l-1

2

De

c-1

2

Ma

y-1

3

Oct-

13

Ma

r-1

4

Au

g-1

4

Expansion

Contraction



March 12 2015

16


-50

-40

-30

-20

-10

0

10

20

Ap

r-9

7

De

c-9

7

Au

g-9

8

Ap

r-9

9

De

c-9

9

Au

g-0

0

Ap

r-0

1

De

c-0

1

Au

g-0

2

Ap

r-0

3

De

c-0

3

Au

g-0

4

Apr-

05

De

c-0

5

Au

g-0

6

Ap

r-0

7

De

c-0

7

Au

g-0

8

Ap

r-0

9

De

c-0

9

Au

g-1

0

Apr-

11

De

c-1

1

Au

g-1

2

Ap

r-1

3

De

c-1

3

Au

g-1

4

Greece Eurozone





250

350

450

550

650

750

850

950

2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015

EU-17 (mean)

Greece

min-all countries

max-all countries


0

1

2

3

4

5

6

7

8

9

Ele

cto

ral

Pro

ce

ss

Acce

ss to

Info

rmation

Civ

il rig

hts

Rule

of L

aw

Econo

mic

polic

ies

So

cia

lS

usta

ina

bili

ty

En

vir

onm

en

tal

Su

sta

ina

bili

ty

Executive

Cap

acity

Executive

Acco

un

tabili

ty

Greece Euro area


0

20

40

60

80

100

Sta

rtin

g a

Bu

sin

ess

Dea

ling w

ith

Con

str

uction

Pe

rmits

Reg

iste

rin

gP

rope

rty

Ge

ttin

g C

red

it

Pro

tectin

gIn

ve

sto

rs

Pa

yin

g T

axe

s

Tra

din

g A

cro

ss

Bo

rde

rs

En

forc

ing

Co

ntr

acts

Reso

lvin

gIn

so

lve

ncy

DB 2005 DB 2015

March 12 2015

17


020406080

100120140160

Institu

tio

ns

Infr

astr

uctu

re

Ma

cro

eco

no

mic

en

vir

onm

ent

He

alth

an

dp

rim

ary

ed

uca

tio

n

Hig

he

re

du

ca

tio

n a

nd

tra

inin

g

Go

od

s m

ark

et

eff

icie

ncy

La

bor

ma

rke

te

ffic

ien

cy

Fin

ancia

l m

ark

et

de

ve

lop

me

nt

Te

ch

no

log

ica

lre

ad

ine

ss

Ma

rke

t siz

e

Bu

sin

ess

so

ph

istica

tio

n

Inn

ova

tio

n


March 12 2015

18

































March 12 2015

11


exports)




00

100

200

300

400

500

Fo

od

amp liv

ea

nim

als

Be

ve

rag

es amp

tob

acco

Cru

de

ma

teri

als

exce

pt

fue

ls

Min

era

l fu

els

lu

brica

nts

ampre

late

d m

ate

ria

ls

An

ima

l amp

ve

ge

tab

le o

ils

fats

and

wa

xe

s

Ch

em

ica

ls amp

rela

ted

pro

du

cts

(ne

s)

Ma

nu

factu

red

go

od

s c

lassifie

dch

iefly b

y m

ate

ria

l

Ma

ch

ine

ry a

nd

tra

nsp

ort

atio

ne

qu

ipm

en

t

Mic

hella

neo

us

ma

nufa

ctu

rin

ga

rtic

les Oth

er

1998 2013

Manufacturing


00

100

200

300

400

500

600

Tra

nspo

rtation

(ma

inly

sh

ippin

g)

Tra

vel (m

ain

lyto

urism

)

Co

mm

unic

atio

ns


Insu

rance

Mo

neta

ry

IT s

erv

ices

Ro

ya

ltie

s

Oth

er

busin

ess

serv

ices

1998

2013





00

100

200

300

400

500

600

700

2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013

ΕU-27

Germany

Greece


March 12 2015

12




(SITC Rev4)


0

2

4

6

8

10

0 -

Fo

od

11

- B

eve

rages

12

- T

oba

cco

65

- T

extile

yarn

fa

brics

and

rela

ted

pro

ducts

84

- A

rtic

les o

fap

pare

l an

d c

loth

ing

accesso

ries

85

- F

ootw

ear

61

- L

ea

the

r le

ath

er

ma

nufa

ctu

res

63

- C

ork

an

d w

ood

ma

nufa

ctu

res

64

- P

aper

pa

perb

oard

and

rela

ted

pro

ducts

33

- P

etr

ole

um

pe

trole

um

pro

du

cts

an

d r

ela

ted m

ate

rials

5 -

Chem

icals

and

rela

ted

pro

ducts

54

- M

edic

inal an

dph

arm

ace

utica

lpro

ducts

62

- R

ub

ber

ma

nufa

ctu

res

2008

2013

0

1

2

3

4

5

6

66

- N

on

-me

talli

cm

ine

ral

ma

nufa

ctu

res

ne

s

69

- M

an

ufa

ctu

res o

fm

eta

ls

ne

s

2 -

Cru

de

ma

teria

ls

ine

dib

le

exce

pt

fue

ls

3 -

Min

era

l fu

els

lu

brica

nts

and

rela

ted

ma

teria

ls

4 -

An

ima

l a

nd

ve

ge

tab

le o

ils

fats

an

d w

axe

s

6 -

Ma

nu

factu

red

go

od

s c

lassifie

dch

iefly b

y m

ate

ria

l

7 -

Ma

ch

inery

an

dtr

an

sp

ort

eq

uip

me

nt

8 -

Mis

ce

llan

eou

sm

an

ufa

ctu

red

art

icle

s

82

- F

urn

itu

re

2008

2013




(Greece vs EU-27)

Greece

-10

-08

-06

-04

-02

00

Ma

nufa

ctu

red

goo

ds

(SIT

C 5

to

8 less 6

67

an

d 6

8)

Ch

em

ica

l p

rodu

cts

(SIT

C 5

)

Ma

ch

ine

ry a

nd

tra

nsp

ort

eq

uip

me

nt

(SIT

C 7

)

Ele

ctr

on

ic e

xclu

din

gp

art

s a

nd

co

mp

on

en

ts (

SIT

C7

51

+ 7

52

+ 7

61

+7

62

+ 7

63

+ 7

75

)

Oth

er

man

ufa

ctu

red

go

ods (

SIT

C 6

+ 8

less 6

67 a

nd

68)

1995 2012



March 12 2015

13


(Greece vs EU-27)

EU-27

-02

-02

-01

-01

00

01

01

02M

anufa

ctu

red

goo

ds

(SIT

C 5

to

8 less 6

67

an

d 6

8)

Ch

em

ica

l p

rodu

cts

(SIT

C 5

)

Ma

ch

inery

and

tran

sp

ort

eq

uip

me

nt

(SIT

C 7

)

Ele

ctr

on

ic e

xclu

din

gpa

rts a

nd

com

pone

nts

(S

ITC

75

1 +

75

2 +

76

1 +

76

2 +

76

3 +

77

5)

Oth

er

man

ufa

ctu

red

go

ods (

SIT

C 6

+ 8

less 6

67 a

nd

68)

1995 2012




0

10

20

30

40

50

60

1991 1992 1993 1994 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013

Greece

World

EU-28


00

50

100

150

200

250

1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013





March 12 2015

14




0

5

10

15

20

25

30

35

40

201320122011201020092008200720062005200420032002200120001999199819971996


Non EU Countries

Euro Area










March 12 2015

15





00

20

40

60

80

100

120

140

160

180

200

1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013





008

009

010

011

012

013

014

015

1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012

Greece - Eurozone

Greece - ΕU27




488 Oct

35

40

45

50

55

60

Ja

n-0

5

Ju

n-0

5

No

v-0

5

Ap

r-0

6

Se

p-0

6

Fe

b-0

7

Ju

l-0

7

De

c-0

7

Ma

y-0

8

Oct-

08

Ma

r-0

9

Au

g-0

9

Ja

n-1

0

Ju

n-1

0

No

v-1

0

Ap

r-1

1

Se

p-1

1

Fe

b-1

2

Ju

l-1

2

De

c-1

2

Ma

y-1

3

Oct-

13

Ma

r-1

4

Au

g-1

4

Expansion

Contraction



March 12 2015

16


-50

-40

-30

-20

-10

0

10

20

Ap

r-9

7

De

c-9

7

Au

g-9

8

Ap

r-9

9

De

c-9

9

Au

g-0

0

Ap

r-0

1

De

c-0

1

Au

g-0

2

Ap

r-0

3

De

c-0

3

Au

g-0

4

Apr-

05

De

c-0

5

Au

g-0

6

Ap

r-0

7

De

c-0

7

Au

g-0

8

Ap

r-0

9

De

c-0

9

Au

g-1

0

Apr-

11

De

c-1

1

Au

g-1

2

Ap

r-1

3

De

c-1

3

Au

g-1

4

Greece Eurozone





250

350

450

550

650

750

850

950

2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015

EU-17 (mean)

Greece

min-all countries

max-all countries


0

1

2

3

4

5

6

7

8

9

Ele

cto

ral

Pro

ce

ss

Acce

ss to

Info

rmation

Civ

il rig

hts

Rule

of L

aw

Econo

mic

polic

ies

So

cia

lS

usta

ina

bili

ty

En

vir

onm

en

tal

Su

sta

ina

bili

ty

Executive

Cap

acity

Executive

Acco

un

tabili

ty

Greece Euro area


0

20

40

60

80

100

Sta

rtin

g a

Bu

sin

ess

Dea

ling w

ith

Con

str

uction

Pe

rmits

Reg

iste

rin

gP

rope

rty

Ge

ttin

g C

red

it

Pro

tectin

gIn

ve

sto

rs

Pa

yin

g T

axe

s

Tra

din

g A

cro

ss

Bo

rde

rs

En

forc

ing

Co

ntr

acts

Reso

lvin

gIn

so

lve

ncy

DB 2005 DB 2015

March 12 2015

17


020406080

100120140160

Institu

tio

ns

Infr

astr

uctu

re

Ma

cro

eco

no

mic

en

vir

onm

ent

He

alth

an

dp

rim

ary

ed

uca

tio

n

Hig

he

re

du

ca

tio

n a

nd

tra

inin

g

Go

od

s m

ark

et

eff

icie

ncy

La

bor

ma

rke

te

ffic

ien

cy

Fin

ancia

l m

ark

et

de

ve

lop

me

nt

Te

ch

no

log

ica

lre

ad

ine

ss

Ma

rke

t siz

e

Bu

sin

ess

so

ph

istica

tio

n

Inn

ova

tio

n


March 12 2015

18

































March 12 2015

12




(SITC Rev4)


0

2

4

6

8

10

0 -

Fo

od

11

- B

eve

rages

12

- T

oba

cco

65

- T

extile

yarn

fa

brics

and

rela

ted

pro

ducts

84

- A

rtic

les o

fap

pare

l an

d c

loth

ing

accesso

ries

85

- F

ootw

ear

61

- L

ea

the

r le

ath

er

ma

nufa

ctu

res

63

- C

ork

an

d w

ood

ma

nufa

ctu

res

64

- P

aper

pa

perb

oard

and

rela

ted

pro

ducts

33

- P

etr

ole

um

pe

trole

um

pro

du

cts

an

d r

ela

ted m

ate

rials

5 -

Chem

icals

and

rela

ted

pro

ducts

54

- M

edic

inal an

dph

arm

ace

utica

lpro

ducts

62

- R

ub

ber

ma

nufa

ctu

res

2008

2013

0

1

2

3

4

5

6

66

- N

on

-me

talli

cm

ine

ral

ma

nufa

ctu

res

ne

s

69

- M

an

ufa

ctu

res o

fm

eta

ls

ne

s

2 -

Cru

de

ma

teria

ls

ine

dib

le

exce

pt

fue

ls

3 -

Min

era

l fu

els

lu

brica

nts

and

rela

ted

ma

teria

ls

4 -

An

ima

l a

nd

ve

ge

tab

le o

ils

fats

an

d w

axe

s

6 -

Ma

nu

factu

red

go

od

s c

lassifie

dch

iefly b

y m

ate

ria

l

7 -

Ma

ch

inery

an

dtr

an

sp

ort

eq

uip

me

nt

8 -

Mis

ce

llan

eou

sm

an

ufa

ctu

red

art

icle

s

82

- F

urn

itu

re

2008

2013




(Greece vs EU-27)

Greece

-10

-08

-06

-04

-02

00

Ma

nufa

ctu

red

goo

ds

(SIT

C 5

to

8 less 6

67

an

d 6

8)

Ch

em

ica

l p

rodu

cts

(SIT

C 5

)

Ma

ch

ine

ry a

nd

tra

nsp

ort

eq

uip

me

nt

(SIT

C 7

)

Ele

ctr

on

ic e

xclu

din

gp

art

s a

nd

co

mp

on

en

ts (

SIT

C7

51

+ 7

52

+ 7

61

+7

62

+ 7

63

+ 7

75

)

Oth

er

man

ufa

ctu

red

go

ods (

SIT

C 6

+ 8

less 6

67 a

nd

68)

1995 2012



March 12 2015

13


(Greece vs EU-27)

EU-27

-02

-02

-01

-01

00

01

01

02M

anufa

ctu

red

goo

ds

(SIT

C 5

to

8 less 6

67

an

d 6

8)

Ch

em

ica

l p

rodu

cts

(SIT

C 5

)

Ma

ch

inery

and

tran

sp

ort

eq

uip

me

nt

(SIT

C 7

)

Ele

ctr

on

ic e

xclu

din

gpa

rts a

nd

com

pone

nts

(S

ITC

75

1 +

75

2 +

76

1 +

76

2 +

76

3 +

77

5)

Oth

er

man

ufa

ctu

red

go

ods (

SIT

C 6

+ 8

less 6

67 a

nd

68)

1995 2012




0

10

20

30

40

50

60

1991 1992 1993 1994 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013

Greece

World

EU-28


00

50

100

150

200

250

1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013





March 12 2015

14




0

5

10

15

20

25

30

35

40

201320122011201020092008200720062005200420032002200120001999199819971996


Non EU Countries

Euro Area










March 12 2015

15





00

20

40

60

80

100

120

140

160

180

200

1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013





008

009

010

011

012

013

014

015

1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012

Greece - Eurozone

Greece - ΕU27




488 Oct

35

40

45

50

55

60

Ja

n-0

5

Ju

n-0

5

No

v-0

5

Ap

r-0

6

Se

p-0

6

Fe

b-0

7

Ju

l-0

7

De

c-0

7

Ma

y-0

8

Oct-

08

Ma

r-0

9

Au

g-0

9

Ja

n-1

0

Ju

n-1

0

No

v-1

0

Ap

r-1

1

Se

p-1

1

Fe

b-1

2

Ju

l-1

2

De

c-1

2

Ma

y-1

3

Oct-

13

Ma

r-1

4

Au

g-1

4

Expansion

Contraction



March 12 2015

16


-50

-40

-30

-20

-10

0

10

20

Ap

r-9

7

De

c-9

7

Au

g-9

8

Ap

r-9

9

De

c-9

9

Au

g-0

0

Ap

r-0

1

De

c-0

1

Au

g-0

2

Ap

r-0

3

De

c-0

3

Au

g-0

4

Apr-

05

De

c-0

5

Au

g-0

6

Ap

r-0

7

De

c-0

7

Au

g-0

8

Ap

r-0

9

De

c-0

9

Au

g-1

0

Apr-

11

De

c-1

1

Au

g-1

2

Ap

r-1

3

De

c-1

3

Au

g-1

4

Greece Eurozone





250

350

450

550

650

750

850

950

2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015

EU-17 (mean)

Greece

min-all countries

max-all countries


0

1

2

3

4

5

6

7

8

9

Ele

cto

ral

Pro

ce

ss

Acce

ss to

Info

rmation

Civ

il rig

hts

Rule

of L

aw

Econo

mic

polic

ies

So

cia

lS

usta

ina

bili

ty

En

vir

onm

en

tal

Su

sta

ina

bili

ty

Executive

Cap

acity

Executive

Acco

un

tabili

ty

Greece Euro area


0

20

40

60

80

100

Sta

rtin

g a

Bu

sin

ess

Dea

ling w

ith

Con

str

uction

Pe

rmits

Reg

iste

rin

gP

rope

rty

Ge

ttin

g C

red

it

Pro

tectin

gIn

ve

sto

rs

Pa

yin

g T

axe

s

Tra

din

g A

cro

ss

Bo

rde

rs

En

forc

ing

Co

ntr

acts

Reso

lvin

gIn

so

lve

ncy

DB 2005 DB 2015

March 12 2015

17


020406080

100120140160

Institu

tio

ns

Infr

astr

uctu

re

Ma

cro

eco

no

mic

en

vir

onm

ent

He

alth

an

dp

rim

ary

ed

uca

tio

n

Hig

he

re

du

ca

tio

n a

nd

tra

inin

g

Go

od

s m

ark

et

eff

icie

ncy

La

bor

ma

rke

te

ffic

ien

cy

Fin

ancia

l m

ark

et

de

ve

lop

me

nt

Te

ch

no

log

ica

lre

ad

ine

ss

Ma

rke

t siz

e

Bu

sin

ess

so

ph

istica

tio

n

Inn

ova

tio

n


March 12 2015

18

































March 12 2015

13


(Greece vs EU-27)

EU-27

-02

-02

-01

-01

00

01

01

02M

anufa

ctu

red

goo

ds

(SIT

C 5

to

8 less 6

67

an

d 6

8)

Ch

em

ica

l p

rodu

cts

(SIT

C 5

)

Ma

ch

inery

and

tran

sp

ort

eq

uip

me

nt

(SIT

C 7

)

Ele

ctr

on

ic e

xclu

din

gpa

rts a

nd

com

pone

nts

(S

ITC

75

1 +

75

2 +

76

1 +

76

2 +

76

3 +

77

5)

Oth

er

man

ufa

ctu

red

go

ods (

SIT

C 6

+ 8

less 6

67 a

nd

68)

1995 2012




0

10

20

30

40

50

60

1991 1992 1993 1994 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013

Greece

World

EU-28


00

50

100

150

200

250

1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013





March 12 2015

14




0

5

10

15

20

25

30

35

40

201320122011201020092008200720062005200420032002200120001999199819971996


Non EU Countries

Euro Area










March 12 2015

15





00

20

40

60

80

100

120

140

160

180

200

1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013





008

009

010

011

012

013

014

015

1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012

Greece - Eurozone

Greece - ΕU27




488 Oct

35

40

45

50

55

60

Ja

n-0

5

Ju

n-0

5

No

v-0

5

Ap

r-0

6

Se

p-0

6

Fe

b-0

7

Ju

l-0

7

De

c-0

7

Ma

y-0

8

Oct-

08

Ma

r-0

9

Au

g-0

9

Ja

n-1

0

Ju

n-1

0

No

v-1

0

Ap

r-1

1

Se

p-1

1

Fe

b-1

2

Ju

l-1

2

De

c-1

2

Ma

y-1

3

Oct-

13

Ma

r-1

4

Au

g-1

4

Expansion

Contraction



March 12 2015

16


-50

-40

-30

-20

-10

0

10

20

Ap

r-9

7

De

c-9

7

Au

g-9

8

Ap

r-9

9

De

c-9

9

Au

g-0

0

Ap

r-0

1

De

c-0

1

Au

g-0

2

Ap

r-0

3

De

c-0

3

Au

g-0

4

Apr-

05

De

c-0

5

Au

g-0

6

Ap

r-0

7

De

c-0

7

Au

g-0

8

Ap

r-0

9

De

c-0

9

Au

g-1

0

Apr-

11

De

c-1

1

Au

g-1

2

Ap

r-1

3

De

c-1

3

Au

g-1

4

Greece Eurozone





250

350

450

550

650

750

850

950

2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015

EU-17 (mean)

Greece

min-all countries

max-all countries


0

1

2

3

4

5

6

7

8

9

Ele

cto

ral

Pro

ce

ss

Acce

ss to

Info

rmation

Civ

il rig

hts

Rule

of L

aw

Econo

mic

polic

ies

So

cia

lS

usta

ina

bili

ty

En

vir

onm

en

tal

Su

sta

ina

bili

ty

Executive

Cap

acity

Executive

Acco

un

tabili

ty

Greece Euro area


0

20

40

60

80

100

Sta

rtin

g a

Bu

sin

ess

Dea

ling w

ith

Con

str

uction

Pe

rmits

Reg

iste

rin

gP

rope

rty

Ge

ttin

g C

red

it

Pro

tectin

gIn

ve

sto

rs

Pa

yin

g T

axe

s

Tra

din

g A

cro

ss

Bo

rde

rs

En

forc

ing

Co

ntr

acts

Reso

lvin

gIn

so

lve

ncy

DB 2005 DB 2015

March 12 2015

17


020406080

100120140160

Institu

tio

ns

Infr

astr

uctu

re

Ma

cro

eco

no

mic

en

vir

onm

ent

He

alth

an

dp

rim

ary

ed

uca

tio

n

Hig

he

re

du

ca

tio

n a

nd

tra

inin

g

Go

od

s m

ark

et

eff

icie

ncy

La

bor

ma

rke

te

ffic

ien

cy

Fin

ancia

l m

ark

et

de

ve

lop

me

nt

Te

ch

no

log

ica

lre

ad

ine

ss

Ma

rke

t siz

e

Bu

sin

ess

so

ph

istica

tio

n

Inn

ova

tio

n


March 12 2015

18

































March 12 2015

14




0

5

10

15

20

25

30

35

40

201320122011201020092008200720062005200420032002200120001999199819971996


Non EU Countries

Euro Area










March 12 2015

15





00

20

40

60

80

100

120

140

160

180

200

1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013





008

009

010

011

012

013

014

015

1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012

Greece - Eurozone

Greece - ΕU27




488 Oct

35

40

45

50

55

60

Ja

n-0

5

Ju

n-0

5

No

v-0

5

Ap

r-0

6

Se

p-0

6

Fe

b-0

7

Ju

l-0

7

De

c-0

7

Ma

y-0

8

Oct-

08

Ma

r-0

9

Au

g-0

9

Ja

n-1

0

Ju

n-1

0

No

v-1

0

Ap

r-1

1

Se

p-1

1

Fe

b-1

2

Ju

l-1

2

De

c-1

2

Ma

y-1

3

Oct-

13

Ma

r-1

4

Au

g-1

4

Expansion

Contraction



March 12 2015

16


-50

-40

-30

-20

-10

0

10

20

Ap

r-9

7

De

c-9

7

Au

g-9

8

Ap

r-9

9

De

c-9

9

Au

g-0

0

Ap

r-0

1

De

c-0

1

Au

g-0

2

Ap

r-0

3

De

c-0

3

Au

g-0

4

Apr-

05

De

c-0

5

Au

g-0

6

Ap

r-0

7

De

c-0

7

Au

g-0

8

Ap

r-0

9

De

c-0

9

Au

g-1

0

Apr-

11

De

c-1

1

Au

g-1

2

Ap

r-1

3

De

c-1

3

Au

g-1

4

Greece Eurozone





250

350

450

550

650

750

850

950

2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015

EU-17 (mean)

Greece

min-all countries

max-all countries


0

1

2

3

4

5

6

7

8

9

Ele

cto

ral

Pro

ce

ss

Acce

ss to

Info

rmation

Civ

il rig

hts

Rule

of L

aw

Econo

mic

polic

ies

So

cia

lS

usta

ina

bili

ty

En

vir

onm

en

tal

Su

sta

ina

bili

ty

Executive

Cap

acity

Executive

Acco

un

tabili

ty

Greece Euro area


0

20

40

60

80

100

Sta

rtin

g a

Bu

sin

ess

Dea

ling w

ith

Con

str

uction

Pe

rmits

Reg

iste

rin

gP

rope

rty

Ge

ttin

g C

red

it

Pro

tectin

gIn

ve

sto

rs

Pa

yin

g T

axe

s

Tra

din

g A

cro

ss

Bo

rde

rs

En

forc

ing

Co

ntr

acts

Reso

lvin

gIn

so

lve

ncy

DB 2005 DB 2015

March 12 2015

17


020406080

100120140160

Institu

tio

ns

Infr

astr

uctu

re

Ma

cro

eco

no

mic

en

vir

onm

ent

He

alth

an

dp

rim

ary

ed

uca

tio

n

Hig

he

re

du

ca

tio

n a

nd

tra

inin

g

Go

od

s m

ark

et

eff

icie

ncy

La

bor

ma

rke

te

ffic

ien

cy

Fin

ancia

l m

ark

et

de

ve

lop

me

nt

Te

ch

no

log

ica

lre

ad

ine

ss

Ma

rke

t siz

e

Bu

sin

ess

so

ph

istica

tio

n

Inn

ova

tio

n


March 12 2015

18

































March 12 2015

15





00

20

40

60

80

100

120

140

160

180

200

1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013





008

009

010

011

012

013

014

015

1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012

Greece - Eurozone

Greece - ΕU27




488 Oct

35

40

45

50

55

60

Ja

n-0

5

Ju

n-0

5

No

v-0

5

Ap

r-0

6

Se

p-0

6

Fe

b-0

7

Ju

l-0

7

De

c-0

7

Ma

y-0

8

Oct-

08

Ma

r-0

9

Au

g-0

9

Ja

n-1

0

Ju

n-1

0

No

v-1

0

Ap

r-1

1

Se

p-1

1

Fe

b-1

2

Ju

l-1

2

De

c-1

2

Ma

y-1

3

Oct-

13

Ma

r-1

4

Au

g-1

4

Expansion

Contraction



March 12 2015

16


-50

-40

-30

-20

-10

0

10

20

Ap

r-9

7

De

c-9

7

Au

g-9

8

Ap

r-9

9

De

c-9

9

Au

g-0

0

Ap

r-0

1

De

c-0

1

Au

g-0

2

Ap

r-0

3

De

c-0

3

Au

g-0

4

Apr-

05

De

c-0

5

Au

g-0

6

Ap

r-0

7

De

c-0

7

Au

g-0

8

Ap

r-0

9

De

c-0

9

Au

g-1

0

Apr-

11

De

c-1

1

Au

g-1

2

Ap

r-1

3

De

c-1

3

Au

g-1

4

Greece Eurozone





250

350

450

550

650

750

850

950

2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015

EU-17 (mean)

Greece

min-all countries

max-all countries


0

1

2

3

4

5

6

7

8

9

Ele

cto

ral

Pro

ce

ss

Acce

ss to

Info

rmation

Civ

il rig

hts

Rule

of L

aw

Econo

mic

polic

ies

So

cia

lS

usta

ina

bili

ty

En

vir

onm

en

tal

Su

sta

ina

bili

ty

Executive

Cap

acity

Executive

Acco

un

tabili

ty

Greece Euro area


0

20

40

60

80

100

Sta

rtin

g a

Bu

sin

ess

Dea

ling w

ith

Con

str

uction

Pe

rmits

Reg

iste

rin

gP

rope

rty

Ge

ttin

g C

red

it

Pro

tectin

gIn

ve

sto

rs

Pa

yin

g T

axe

s

Tra

din

g A

cro

ss

Bo

rde

rs

En

forc

ing

Co

ntr

acts

Reso

lvin

gIn

so

lve

ncy

DB 2005 DB 2015

March 12 2015

17


020406080

100120140160

Institu

tio

ns

Infr

astr

uctu

re

Ma

cro

eco

no

mic

en

vir

onm

ent

He

alth

an

dp

rim

ary

ed

uca

tio

n

Hig

he

re

du

ca

tio

n a

nd

tra

inin

g

Go

od

s m

ark

et

eff

icie

ncy

La

bor

ma

rke

te

ffic

ien

cy

Fin

ancia

l m

ark

et

de

ve

lop

me

nt

Te

ch

no

log

ica

lre

ad

ine

ss

Ma

rke

t siz

e

Bu

sin

ess

so

ph

istica

tio

n

Inn

ova

tio

n


March 12 2015

18

































March 12 2015

16


-50

-40

-30

-20

-10

0

10

20

Ap

r-9

7

De

c-9

7

Au

g-9

8

Ap

r-9

9

De

c-9

9

Au

g-0

0

Ap

r-0

1

De

c-0

1

Au

g-0

2

Ap

r-0

3

De

c-0

3

Au

g-0

4

Apr-

05

De

c-0

5

Au

g-0

6

Ap

r-0

7

De

c-0

7

Au

g-0

8

Ap

r-0

9

De

c-0

9

Au

g-1

0

Apr-

11

De

c-1

1

Au

g-1

2

Ap

r-1

3

De

c-1

3

Au

g-1

4

Greece Eurozone





250

350

450

550

650

750

850

950

2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015

EU-17 (mean)

Greece

min-all countries

max-all countries


0

1

2

3

4

5

6

7

8

9

Ele

cto

ral

Pro

ce

ss

Acce

ss to

Info

rmation

Civ

il rig

hts

Rule

of L

aw

Econo

mic

polic

ies

So

cia

lS

usta

ina

bili

ty

En

vir

onm

en

tal

Su

sta

ina

bili

ty

Executive

Cap

acity

Executive

Acco

un

tabili

ty

Greece Euro area


0

20

40

60

80

100

Sta

rtin

g a

Bu

sin

ess

Dea

ling w

ith

Con

str

uction

Pe

rmits

Reg

iste

rin

gP

rope

rty

Ge

ttin

g C

red

it

Pro

tectin

gIn

ve

sto

rs

Pa

yin

g T

axe

s

Tra

din

g A

cro

ss

Bo

rde

rs

En

forc

ing

Co

ntr

acts

Reso

lvin

gIn

so

lve

ncy

DB 2005 DB 2015

March 12 2015

17


020406080

100120140160

Institu

tio

ns

Infr

astr

uctu

re

Ma

cro

eco

no

mic

en

vir

onm

ent

He

alth

an

dp

rim

ary

ed

uca

tio

n

Hig

he

re

du

ca

tio

n a

nd

tra

inin

g

Go

od

s m

ark

et

eff

icie

ncy

La

bor

ma

rke

te

ffic

ien

cy

Fin

ancia

l m

ark

et

de

ve

lop

me

nt

Te

ch

no

log

ica

lre

ad

ine

ss

Ma

rke

t siz

e

Bu

sin

ess

so

ph

istica

tio

n

Inn

ova

tio

n


March 12 2015

18

































March 12 2015

17


020406080

100120140160

Institu

tio

ns

Infr

astr

uctu

re

Ma

cro

eco

no

mic

en

vir

onm

ent

He

alth

an

dp

rim

ary

ed

uca

tio

n

Hig

he

re

du

ca

tio

n a

nd

tra

inin

g

Go

od

s m

ark

et

eff

icie

ncy

La

bor

ma

rke

te

ffic

ien

cy

Fin

ancia

l m

ark

et

de

ve

lop

me

nt

Te

ch

no

log

ica

lre

ad

ine

ss

Ma

rke

t siz

e

Bu

sin

ess

so

ph

istica

tio

n

Inn

ova

tio

n


March 12 2015

18

































March 12 2015

18

































greece macro focus march 12 2015

Documents

fiscal sustainability

benefits of fiscal adjustment

greeces fiscal consolidation

massive fiscal adjustment

huge fiscal consolidation

draconian fiscal austerity

wage adjustment

greek economy