greek fixed income monitor

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Ilias Lekkos [email protected] Veni Arakelian [email protected] Dimitria Rotsika [email protected] Paraskevi Vlachou [email protected] Haris Giannakidis [email protected] Piraeus Bank Amerikis 4, 105 64, Athens Tel: 210 328 8187, Fax: 210 328 8605 [email protected] Bloomberg Page: <PBGR> Piraeus Bank Government Bond Index: {PBGGGSBI Index<GO>} Weighted Average Yield: {PBGGGWAY Index<GO>} Piraeus Bank Corporate Bond Index : {PBGGGCBI Index<GO>} Weighted Average Yield : {PBGGIWAY Index<GO>}

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Page 1: Greek Fixed Income Monitor

Ilias Lekkos [email protected] Veni Arakelian [email protected] Rotsika [email protected] Vlachou [email protected] Giannakidis [email protected]

Piraeus BankAmerikis 4, 105 64, AthensTel: 210 328 8187, Fax: 210 328 8605

[email protected] Page: <PBGR>

Piraeus Bank Government Bond Index: {PBGGGSBI Index<GO>}

Weighted Average Yield: {PBGGGWAY Index<GO>}

Piraeus Bank Corporate Bond Index : {PBGGGCBI Index<GO>}

Weighted Average Yield : {PBGGIWAY Index<GO>}

Page 2: Greek Fixed Income Monitor

} Latest Developments in Greek Bond Market

} Greek Government Bonds’ Yield Curve Evolution

} Greek Government Bonds’ Interest Rate Curve Estimation

} Piraeus Bank Greek Government Bond Index

} Piraeus Bank Greek Corporate Bond Indices

} Financial Analysis of Piraeus Bank Corporate Bond Index Members

2April 2015

Page 3: Greek Fixed Income Monitor

3

} April was characterized by intense fluctuations for the short end of the yield curve, driven mainly by uncertainty about the outcome of the

Greek debt negotiations and structural reforms programme. In the meantime, worries about liquidity led to losses for corporate bond issues.

Nevertheless, from mid-April we observed an upward movement for corporate bonds, probably due to the gains in the government bond

market.

} In particular, by 30th April, the Piraeus Bank Government Bond Index had increased by 3.71%, since the beginning of the year and 12.35%

compared to the previous month. It is important to note that due to this sharp upward movement in mid-April, the index value fluctuates

close to the January 2015 levels.

} The Corporate Bond Index lost almost 2.58% of its value during the first 20 days of April. Interestingly though, by the end of April, the

corporate bond index managed to reduce losses to -0.53%.

} In April there were coupon payments for the National Bank of Greece bond on 30th April and the 5-Year Government bond on 17th April. On

7th April OTE repurchased €57.55 million of its debt.

Source: Piraeus Bank Research, Bloomberg

-30 -20 -10 0 10 20

Piraeus Bank Corporate ex Financials Bond Index

Piraeus Bank Corporate Bond Index

Piraeus Bank Financials Bond Index

Piraeus Bank Government Bond Index

Bloomberg Corporate High Yield Bond Index

Bloomberg Government Bond Index

MoM YtD

April 2015

Page 4: Greek Fixed Income Monitor

4

} A partial recovery in trading activity relative to the previous month was recorded in April and the 3-Year and 10-Year annualized volatility

indicators trended upwards. Notably, these volatility indices increased by 3 and 8 percentage points respectively.

} Moreover, by 30th April the yield to maturity for the 3-Year bond had dropped 106 basis points (bps) to 21.06%, while the yield to

maturity for the 5-Year bond had fallen by almost 2% to 14.75%. Maturities greater than 5 years recorded gains in the range of 48.6 to

70 bps.

} Nevertheless, the negative slope in the yield curve and the high yields to maturity for the short end of the curve continue to reflect the

ongoing macroeconomic uncertainty and the deterioration of liquidity in the market. Furthermore, the downgrade of Greece’s credit rating

to Caa2 with negative outlook by Moody’s on 29th April signals the possibility of new negative surprises in the bond market.

3YR 10YR 13

YR 16YR 19

YR 22YR 25

YR 28YR

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0-5

April 2015Source: Piraeus Bank Research, Bloomberg

Page 5: Greek Fixed Income Monitor

5

Estimated Interest Rate Curve Estimated Forward Rate Curve

} In April, the cost of short-term debt shifted downwards, shadowing long-term interest rates. Short-term maturities recorded strong gains with the interest rates for the 3-Year and 5-

Year tenures decreasing by 194 and 148 basis points respectively. In addition, the interest rate for the 10-Year maturity was estimated at 10.07%, 36 bps lower than the previous

month’s level.

} Comparing the forward rate curves for the next 30 days, we note market expectations moving towards higher interest rates in the medium part of the curve, while short-term interest

rates are expected to fall by more than 200 bps. Regarding longer maturities, there are signs of an anticipated decline for maturities between 11 and 20 years, while interest rates for

the long end of the curve are expected to increase. In conclusion, the assessment model continues to reflect the high economic uncertainty in the Greek debt market.

April 2015Source: Piraeus Bank Research, Bloomberg

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Change (RHS) Spot Rates 30/4/2015 Spot Rates 31/3/2015

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Change (RHS) Forward Rates 30/4/2015 Forward Rates 31/3/2015

Page 6: Greek Fixed Income Monitor

6

10year-3year spread Annualized Monthly Volatility Indices

} The annualized monthly volatility indices for short-term (3-Year) and medium-term (10-Year) maturities of the interest rate curve have trended downwards for the past two

months. Nevertheless, by mid-April a renewed trading interest was recorded and annualized volatility is showing signs of increase.

} Specifically, the annualized volatility index at the end of April for the 3-Year bond was 91.1 percentage points, 3 percentage points higher than the previous month’s level.

Similarly, the volatility index for the 10-Year bond reached 52.3 percentage points from 44.61 the previous month. Nevertheless, on a Year to Date (YtD) basis, the two

indices are 30 and 10 percentage points lower respectively.

} Short-term lending is still considerably riskier than long-term lending for the Greek debt market. In particular, the 10-Year and 3-Year term spread ranged between -881 and

-1512 bps, posting a value of -972 bps at the end of April. At the moment, the upside and downside risks for the slope of the yield curve are considered equally likely due to

the uncertainty that delineates the country’s negotiations with its official creditors.

April 2015Source: Piraeus Bank Research, Bloomberg

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Ann. Vol 3Y Ann. Vol 10Y

Page 7: Greek Fixed Income Monitor

7

} The lowest price in April for the index was 237.64, while the highest price was 302.43.

} The value of the Greek Government Bond Index on April 30 was 12.35% higher, compared to theprevious month. The index’s average (MoM) return in the same month was -7.8%.

} 27 months of historical data show that the index MoM return at the end of April was near the 77th

percentile of the empirical distribution.

6

7

8

9

10

11

12

13

14

15

0

50

100

150

200

250

300

350

Index Evolution– April 2015 (Base Date: 9/3/12=100)

Price (LHS) Yield (RHS)

0%

2%

4%

6%

8%

10%

12%

14%

-39 -34 -28 -23 -17 -11 -6 0 6 11 17 22 28 34 39 45 50

Fre

qu

en

cy

MoM Returns (percentage points)

MoM Returns Histogramm

30-AprMembers 22Market Capitalisation (EUR bn.) 35,75Weighted Average Yield 10,26Weighted Average Coupon 3,22Weighted Average Maturity 14,57Weighted Average Duration 9,57

April 2015Source: Piraeus Bank Research, Bloomberg

Page 8: Greek Fixed Income Monitor

Index Composition– April 2015

8

Name

Issuance

Amount

(€ bn)

Amount

Outstanding

(€ bn)

Currency Coupon Coupon Type

Coupon

Frequency

Next Coupon

Payment

Issuance Date Maturity

Credit Rating

(Standard &

Poor's)

Last Price - 30

April

Yield - 30

AprilHellenic Republic Government Bond 2,97 1,79 € 3,000 Stepped Annual 24/2/2016 24/02/2012 24/02/2023 CCC+ 60,3 11,2Hellenic Republic Government Bond 2,97 1,77 € 3,000 Stepped Annual 24/2/2016 25/02/2012 24/02/2024 CCC+ 59,5 10,7Hellenic Republic Government Bond 2,97 1,74 € 3,000 Stepped Annual 24/2/2016 26/02/2012 24/02/2025 CCC+ 58,7 10,3Hellenic Republic Government Bond 2,97 1,50 € 3,000 Stepped Annual 24/2/2016 27/02/2012 24/02/2026 CCC+ 56,6 10,3Hellenic Republic Government Bond 2,97 1,47 € 3,000 Stepped Annual 24/2/2016 28/02/2012 24/02/2027 CCC+ 55,9 10,1Hellenic Republic Government Bond 3,17 1,53 € 3,000 Stepped Annual 24/2/2016 29/02/2012 24/02/2028 CCC+ 55,2 9,9Hellenic Republic Government Bond 3,17 1,50 € 3,000 Stepped Annual 24/2/2016 01/03/2012 24/02/2029 CCC+ 55,2 9,6Hellenic Republic Government Bond 3,17 1,44 € 3,000 Stepped Annual 24/2/2016 02/03/2012 24/02/2030 CCC+ 55,1 9,4Hellenic Republic Government Bond 3,17 1,37 € 3,000 Stepped Annual 24/2/2016 03/03/2012 24/02/2031 CCC+ 55,0 9,2Hellenic Republic Government Bond 3,17 1,37 € 3,000 Stepped Annual 24/2/2016 04/03/2012 24/02/2032 CCC+ 55,1 8,9Hellenic Republic Government Bond 3,17 1,45 € 3,000 Stepped Annual 24/2/2016 05/03/2012 24/02/2033 CCC+ 55,2 8,8Hellenic Republic Government Bond 3,17 1,41 € 3,000 Stepped Annual 24/2/2016 06/03/2012 24/02/2034 CCC+ 55,1 8,6Hellenic Republic Government Bond 3,17 1,44 € 3,000 Stepped Annual 24/2/2016 07/03/2012 24/02/2035 CCC+ 55,1 8,5Hellenic Republic Government Bond 3,17 1,51 € 3,000 Stepped Annual 24/2/2016 08/03/2012 24/02/2036 CCC+ 55,1 8,4Hellenic Republic Government Bond 3,17 1,40 € 3,000 Stepped Annual 24/2/2016 09/03/2012 24/02/2037 CCC+ 55,0 8,3Hellenic Republic Government Bond 3,17 1,38 € 3,000 Stepped Annual 24/2/2016 10/03/2012 24/02/2038 CCC+ 55,0 8,2Hellenic Republic Government Bond 3,17 1,34 € 3,000 Stepped Annual 24/2/2016 11/03/2012 24/02/2039 CCC+ 54,9 8,1Hellenic Republic Government Bond 3,17 1,37 € 3,000 Stepped Annual 24/2/2016 12/03/2012 24/02/2040 CCC+ 55,0 8,0Hellenic Republic Government Bond 3,17 1,36 € 3,000 Stepped Annual 24/2/2016 13/03/2012 24/02/2041 CCC+ 55,0 7,9Hellenic Republic Government Bond 3,17 1,43 € 3,000 Stepped Annual 24/2/2016 14/03/2012 24/02/2042 CCC+ 55,1 7,9Hellenic Republic Government Bond 4,08 4,08 € 4,750 Fixed Annual 17/04/2016 10/04/2014 17/04/2019 CCC+ 74,2 13,6Hellenic Republic Government Bond 2,09 2,09 € 3,375 Fixed Annual 17/7/2015 10/07/2014 17/07/2017 CCC+ 73,8 19,0

April 2015Source: Piraeus Bank Research, Bloomberg

Page 9: Greek Fixed Income Monitor

9

} The lowest price in April for the index was 108.27, while the highest price was 111.5.

} The value of the Greek Corporate Bond Index on April 30 decreased by 0.53% compared to theprevious month. Moreover, the index’s average (MoM) return in the same month was -3.81%.

} 27 months of historical data show that the index MoM return at the end of April was near the 25th

percentile of its empirical distribution.

3,0

4,0

5,0

6,0

7,0

8,0

9,0

106

107

108

109

110

111

112

Index Evolution– April 2015 (Base Date:: 2/1/13=100)

Price (LHS) Yield (RHS)

0%

2%

4%

6%

8%

10%

12%

14%

16%

-5,6 -4,8 -4,0 -3,2 -2,4 -1,7 -0,9 -0,1 0,7 1,5 2,3 3,1 3,9 4,7

Fre

qu

en

cy

MoM Returns (percentage points)

MoM Return Histogramm

April 2015Source: Piraeus Bank Research, Bloomberg

30-AprMembers 15

Market Capitalisation (EUR bn) 6,63

Weighted Average Yield 7,05

Weighted Average Coupon 5,47

Weighted Average Maturity 3,36

Weighted Average Duration 2,97

Page 10: Greek Fixed Income Monitor

Index Composition– April 2015

10

Name

Issuance

Amount

(€ mn)

Amount

Outstanding

(€ mn)

Currency Coupon Coupon Type

Coupon

Frequency

Next Coupon

Payment

Issuance Date Maturity

Credit Rating

(Standard &

Poor's)

Last Price - 30

April

Yield - 30

AprilCOCA-COLA HBC FINANCE BV 800,00 800,00 € 2,375 Fixed Annual 06/18/2015 06/10/2013 06/18/2020 BBB 106,01 1,10

OTE PLC 700,00 700,00 € 7,875 Fixed Semi-Annual 08/07/2015 01/29/2013 02/07/2018 BB- 103,86 6,32

HELLENIC PETROLEUM FINAN 500,00 500,00 € 8,000 Fixed Semi-Annual 05/10/2015 04/29/2013 05/10/2017 91,29 13,06

INTRALOT FINANCE LUXEMBU 325,00 325,00 € 9,750 Fixed Semi-Annual 08/15/2015 08/01/2013 08/15/2018 B+ 102,40 8,56

SB MINERALS FINANCE/SB I** 275,00 € 9,250 Fixed Semi-Annual 07/30/2013 08/15/2020

FRIGOGLASS FINANCE BV 250,00 250,00 € 8,250 Fixed Semi-Annual 05/15/2015 05/13/2013 05/15/2018 B+ 92,27 11,33

COCA-COLA HBC FINANCE BV 600,00 600,00 € 4,250 Fixed Annual 11/16/2015 11/09/2009 11/16/2016 BBB 105,76 0,47

OTE PLC 900,00 629,45 € 4,625 Fixed Annual 05/20/2015 11/14/2006 05/20/2016 BB- 99,77 4,86

TITAN GLOBAL FINANCE PLC 200,00 200,00 € 8,750 Fixed Semi-Annual 07/19/2015 12/17/2012 01/19/2017 BB 106,69 4,63

PPC FINANCE PLC* 500,00 500,00 € 5,500 Fixed Semi-Annual 11/01/2015 04/30/2014 05/01/2019 CCC+ /*- 73,03 14,67

PPC FINANCE PLC* 200,00 200,00 € 4,750 Fixed Semi-Annual 11/01/2015 04/30/2014 05/01/2017 CCC+ /*- 76,01 19,95

INTRALOT CAPITAL LUX* 250,00 250,00 € 6,000 Fixed Semi-Annual 05/15/2015 04/30/2014 05/15/2021 B+ 89,96 8,14

MOTOR OIL FINANCE PLC* 350,00 350,00 € 5,125 Fixed Semi-Annual 05/15/2015 05/15/2014 05/15/2019 88,18 8,66

TITAN GLOBAL FINANCE PLC* 300,00 297,50 € 4,250 Fixed Semi-Annual 07/10/2015 07/03/2014 07/10/2019 BB 94,83 5,65

HELLENIC PETROLEUM FINANCE* 325,00 325,00 € 5,250 Fixed Semi-Annual 07/04/2015 06/25/2014 07/04/2019 82,50 10,54

OTE PLC* 700,00 700,00 € 3,500 Fixed Annual 07/09/2015 07/07/2014 07/09/2020 BB- 91,04 5,53

* 2014 Issues

** Called on April 2015

April 2015Source: Piraeus Bank Research, Bloomberg

Page 11: Greek Fixed Income Monitor

11

} The lowest price in April for the index was 99.7, while the highest price was 104.46.

} The value of the Greek Corporate and Financials Bond Index on April 30 had fallen by 0.67%compared to the previous month. Similarly, the index’s average (MoM) return in the same monthwas -5.16%.

} 27 months of historical data show that the index MoM return at the end of April was near the 27th

percentile of the empirical distribution.

3

5

7

9

11

13

15

97

98

99

100

101

102

103

104

105

01/04/15 06/04/15 11/04/15 16/04/15 21/04/15 26/04/15

Index Evolution– April 2015 (Base Date: 2/1/13=100)

Price (LHS) Yield (RHS)

0%

2%

4%

6%

8%

10%

12%

14%

16%

18%

-7,0 -6,1 -5,1 -4,2 -3,3 -2,4 -1,5 -0,5 0,4 1,3 2,2 3,1 4,1 5,0

Fre

qu

en

cy

MoM Returns (percentage points)

MoM Return Histogramm

30-AprMembers 19

Market Capitalisation (EUR bn) 8,78

Weigthed Average Yield 10,71

Weighted Average Coupon 5,19

Weighted Average Maturity 3,26

Weighted Average Duration 2,91

April 2015Source: Piraeus Bank Research, Bloomberg

Page 12: Greek Fixed Income Monitor

Index Composition– April 2015

12

Name

Issuance

Amount

(€ mn)

Amount

Outstanding

(€ mn)

Currency Coupon Coupon Type

Coupon

Frequency

Next Coupon

Payment

Issuance Date Maturity

Credit Rating

(Standard &

Poor's)

Last Price - 30

April

Yield - 30 April

COCA-COLA HBC FINANCE BV 800,00 800,00 € 2,4 Fixed Annual 06/18/2015 06/10/2013 06/18/2020 BBB 106,01 1,10

OTE PLC 700,00 700,00 € 7,9 Fixed Semi-Annual 08/07/2015 01/29/2013 02/07/2018 BB- 103,86 6,32

HELLENIC PETROLEUM FINAN 500,00 500,00 € 8,0 Fixed Semi-Annual 05/10/2015 04/29/2013 05/10/2017 91,29 13,06

INTRALOT FINANCE LUXEMBU 325,00 325,00 € 9,8 Fixed Semi-Annual 08/15/2015 08/01/2013 08/15/2018 B+ 102,40 8,56

SB MINERALS FINANCE/SB I*** 275,00 € Fixed Semi-Annual 07/30/2013 08/15/2020

FRIGOGLASS FINANCE BV 250,00 250,00 € 8,3 Fixed Semi-Annual 05/15/2015 05/13/2013 05/15/2018 B+ 92,27 11,33

COCA-COLA HBC FINANCE BV 600,00 600,00 € 4,3 Fixed Annual 11/16/2015 11/09/2009 11/16/2016 BBB 105,76 0,47

OTE PLC*** 787,75 € Fixed Annual 02/05/2008 02/12/2015

OTE PLC 900,00 629,45 € 4,6 Fixed Annual 05/20/2015 11/14/2006 05/20/2016 BB- 99,77 4,86

TITAN GLOBAL FINANCE PLC 200,00 200,00 € 8,8 Fixed Semi-Annual 07/19/2015 12/17/2012 01/19/2017 BB 106,69 4,63

PPC FINANCE PLC* 500,00 500,00 € 5,5 Fixed Semi-Annual 11/01/2015 04/30/2014 05/01/2019 CCC+ /*- 73,03 14,67

PPC FINANCE PLC* 200,00 200,00 € 4,8 Fixed Semi-Annual 11/01/2015 04/30/2014 05/01/2017 CCC+ /*- 76,01 19,95

INTRALOT CAPITAL LUX* 250,00 250,00 € 6,0 Fixed Semi-Annual 05/15/2015 04/30/2014 05/15/2021 B+ 89,96 8,14

MOTOR OIL FINANCE PLC* 350,00 350,00 € 5,1 Fixed Semi-Annual 05/15/2015 05/15/2014 05/15/2019 88,18 8,66

TITAN GLOBAL FINANCE PLC* 300,00 297,50 € 4,3 Fixed Semi-Annual 07/10/2015 07/03/2014 07/10/2019 BB 94,83 5,65

HELLENIC PETROLEUM FINAN* 325,00 325,00 € 5,3 Fixed Semi-Annual 07/04/2015 06/25/2014 07/04/2019 82,50 10,54

OTE PLC* 700,00 700,00 € 3,5 Fixed Annual 07/09/2015 07/07/2014 07/09/2020 BB- 91,04 5,53

YIOULA GLASSWORKS SA** 146,10 € Fixed Semi-Annual 11/10/2005

OTE PLC** 500,00 € Fixed Annual 04/04/2011

PIRAEUS GROUP FINANCE* 500,00 500,00 € 5,0 Fixed Annual 03/27/2016 03/18/2014 03/27/2017 CCC+ /*- 68,14 29,15

NBG FINANCE PLC* 750,00 750,00 € 4,4 Fixed Annual 04/30/2016 04/17/2014 04/30/2019 63,82 17,81

ALPHA CREDIT GROUP PLC* 500,00 400,00 € 3,4 Fixed Annual 06/17/2015 06/12/2014 06/17/2017 CCC+ /*- 71,73 21,29

ERB HELLAS PLC* 500,00 500,00 € 4,3 Fixed Annual 06/26/2015 06/19/2014 06/26/2018 CCC+ /*- 63,80 21,13

* 2014 Issues

** 2014 Maturities

*** 2015 Maturities

April 2015Source: Piraeus Bank Research, Bloomberg

Page 13: Greek Fixed Income Monitor

13

} The lowest price in April for the index was 61.71, while the highest price was 70.35.

} The value of the Greek Financials Bond Index on April 30 had fallen by 1.31% compared to theprevious month. Similarly, the index’s average (MoM) return in the same month was -9.06%.

} 13 months of historical data show that the index MoM return at the end of April was near the 57thpercentile of its empirical distribution.

30-AprMembers 4

Market Capitalisation (EUR bn) 2,15

Weighted Average Yield 21,87

Weighted Average Coupon 4,31

Weighted Average Maturity 2,96

Weighted Average Duration 2,73

0

5

10

15

20

25

30

56

58

60

62

64

66

68

70

72

01/04/15 06/04/15 11/04/15 16/04/15 21/04/15 26/04/15

Index Evolution– April 2015 (Base Date: 20/3/14=100)

Price (LHS) Yield (RHS)

0%

2%

4%

6%

8%

10%

12%

14%

16%

18%

20%

-21,3 -19,5 -17,7 -15,9 -14,0 -12,2 -10,4 -8,6 -6,8 -4,9 -3,1 -1,3 0,5 2,4 4,2 6,0 7,8 9,6 11,5

Fre

qu

en

cy

MoM Returns (percentage points)

MoM Return Histogramm

April 2015Source: Piraeus Bank Research, Bloomberg

Page 14: Greek Fixed Income Monitor

14

Index Composition– April 2015

Name

Issuance

Amount

(€ mn)

Amount

Outstanding

(€ mn)

Currency Coupon Coupon Type

Coupon

Frequency

Next Coupon

Payment

Issuance Date Maturity

Credit Rating

(Standard &

Poor's)

Last Price - 30

April

Yield - 30

AprilPiraeus Bank 500 500 € 5,000 Fixed Annual 03/27/2016 18/03/14 03/27/2017 CCC+ /*- 68,14 29,15

National Bank of Greece 750 750 € 4,375 Fixed Annual 04/30/2016 17/04/14 04/30/2019 63,82 17,81

Alpha Bank 500 400 € 3,375 Fixed Annual 06/17/2015 12/06/14 06/17/2017 CCC+ /*- 71,73 21,29

Eurobank 500 500 € 4,250 Fixed Annual 06/26/2015 19/06/2014 06/26/2018 CCC+ /*- 63,80 21,13

April 2015Source: Piraeus Bank Research, Bloomberg

Page 15: Greek Fixed Income Monitor

In this section, we carry out to a financial analysis of the

companies that comprise the Piraeus Bank Greek Corporate

Bond Index.

The portfolio of the companies we examine is the following:

In our presentation we focus on structural analysis, namely we

examine the financial performance of the companies for 2014.

A key tool for assessing the performance of the fundamentals of

the companies is to examine the ratios derived from the

consolidated financial figures.

Our data source is Bloomberg, in line with the calculations of the

examined indicators and the standardization methods that it

adopts.

15

Hellenic Telecommunications Organization (HTO) ΤΙΤΑΝ

Public Power Corporation (PPC) COCA-COLA HBC

Motor Oil Intralot

Hellenic Petroleum (ELPE) Frigoglass

Note: it is worth mentioning that this analysis focuses on companies undertaking different types of activity, whosenature varies to some extent in the effect it has on the performance of ratios.

April 2015

Page 16: Greek Fixed Income Monitor

Note: group consolidated dataThe figures of the presented ratios are those provided and calculated by Bloomberg.The figures in the graphs refer to 2014.Date of data extract: 04/05/2015

Source: Piraeus Bank Research, Bloomberg

April 2015

42,075,4

90,1

105,6

173,0251,4

289,7

452,5

TITAN

COCA-COLA HBC

PPC

HTO

ELPE

Intralot

Motor Oil

Frigoglass

Total debt/equity (%)

2013

2014

24,330,6

31,8

33,8

38,7

49,7

55,2

58,9

TITAN

COCA-COLA HBC

PPC

HTO

ELPE

Motor Oil

Frigoglass

Intralot

Total debt/total assets (%)

35,4

20,8

15,7

12,912,1

9,5

0,6

-0,9

HTO

PPC

TITAN

Frigoglass

COCA-COLA HBC

Intralot

Motor Oil

ELPE

EBITDA margin %

15,0

8,7

6,6

6,46,1

4,8

-0,5

-3,1

HTO

PPC

TITAN

COCA-COLA HBC

Frigoglass

Intralot

Motor Oil

ELPE

Operating margin (%)

6,8

4,5

2,7

1,6-0,9

-2,7

-3,9

-11,6

HTO

COCA-COLA HBC

TITAN

PPC

Motor Oil

Intralot

ELPE

Frigoglass

Net income margin (%)

13,2

10,3

2,2

1,6-17,9

-19,7

-20,5-105,3

HTO

COCA-COLA HBC

TITAN

PPC

Motor Oil

ELPE

Intralot

Frigoglass

Return on common equity (%)

4,2

3,4

1,1

0,6-3,5

-4,0

-4,9-10,0

COCA-COLA HBC

HTO

TITAN

PPC

Motor Oil

Intralot

ELPE

Frigoglass

Return on assets (%)

2,02

1,59

1,58

1,271,14

1,02

0,94

0,80

TITAN

Intralot

Frigoglass

PPC

Motor Oil

HTO

COCA-COLA HBC

ELPE

Current ratio

1,47

1,05

0,90

0,900,81

0,66

0,64

0,60

Intralot

TITAN

HTO

Frigoglass

PPC

Motor Oil

ELPE

COCA-COLA HBC

Quick ratio

18,94

14,80

11,75

10,608,58

8,24

4,532,18

HTO

COCA-COLA HBC

ELPE

Intralot

TITAN

Motor Oil

Frigoglass

PPC

CFO/Total liabilities

16

Page 17: Greek Fixed Income Monitor

17

Note: group consolidated dataThe figures of the presented ratios are those provided and calculated by Bloomberg.

Date of data extract: 04/05/2015

Source: Piraeus Bank Research, Bloomberg

•The highest profit margins of the examined companies are recorded by HTO in 2014, with further decline of leverage and liquidity to approximately

the same level as in 2013.

•COCA-COLA HBC paints a satisfactory financial picture, especially as regards the return on assets and equity and the level of debt to equity,

however, it lacks in liquidity compared to the rest examined companies.

•The performance of TITAN is also good. In 2014 it succeeded in moving into positive net profit and return on equity and assets territory from

negative in 2013, while it appears to have restricted the level of leverage.

•The net profit of PPC is in positive territory in 2014, with the profitability and liquidity ratios showing signs of improvement, whereas the leverage of

the company is around the same level as in 2013.

•Regarding INTRALOT, its liquidity may well have improved in 2014, however, the other examined ratios recorded decline, with the debt burden and

the negative net profit rising. Similar is the picture for FRIGOGLASS, with its leverage remaining high amongst the highest of the examined

companies. At the same time, the fact that the net losses have increased results in an additional burden of return on assets and equity ratios.

•The profitability capacity of ELPE deteriorated further in 2014, without showing improvement in its level of debt burden.

•By maintaining the same level of liquidity, MOTOR OIL posted declines in the other examined ratios. In particular, its return on assets and equity

from marginally negative showed further deterioration in 2014, while the company’s profit margins moved downward.

April 2015

α/α 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8Current Ratio ΤΙΤΑΝ Intralot Frigoglass PPC Motor Oil HTO COCA-COLA HBC ELPEQuick Ratio Intralot ΤΙΤΑΝ HTO Frigoglass PPC Motor Oil ELPE COCA-COLA HBCCFO/Total Liabilities HTO COCA-COLA HBC ELPE Intralot ΤΙΤΑΝ Motor Oil Frigoglass PPCTotal Debt/Equity ΤΙΤΑΝ COCA-COLA HBC PPC HTO ELPE Intralot Motor Oil FrigoglassTotal Debt/Total Assets ΤΙΤΑΝ COCA-COLA HBC PPC HTO ELPE Motor Oil Frigoglass IntralotEBITDA Margin HTO PPC ΤΙΤΑΝ Frigoglass COCA-COLA HBC Intralot Motor Oil ELPEOperating Margin HTO PPC ΤΙΤΑΝ COCA-COLA HBC Frigoglass Intralot Motor Oil ELPENet Income Margin HTO COCA-COLA HBC ΤΙΤΑΝ PPC Motor Oil Intralot ELPE FrigoglassReturn on Common Equity HTO COCA-COLA HBC ΤΙΤΑΝ PPC Motor Oil ELPE Intralot FrigoglassReturn on Assets COCA-COLA HBC HTO ΤΙΤΑΝ PPC Motor Oil Intralot ELPE Frigoglass

Page 18: Greek Fixed Income Monitor

18

Note: group consolidated dataDate of data extract: 04/05/2015

Source: Piraeus Bank Research, Bloomberg

•The high net profit margin of HTO had a positive impact on the good performance ofits ROE and ROA, the highest among the companies. Similar is the picture for COCA-COLA HBC.

•There was improvement in components of the ROE of TITAN in 2014, which wassignificantly strengthened, as its profit margin became positive from negative and thedegree of leverage slightly declined.

•Similarly, the positive performance of the profit margin of PPC in 2014 – from negativein 2013 – was basically the factor that boosted the improvement in the ROE and ROA,which are now in positive territory.

•The increase in the negative profit margin and the level of leverage of MOTOR OIL alsoresulted in significant deterioration in its ROE and ROA in 2014. ELPE and INTRALOT arein a similar situation.

•FRIGOGLASS showed by far the lowest structural performance in terms of its ROE andROA in 2014.

DuPont Analysis allows us to examine the structure of the return onequity and its simplified from is as follows:

Return on equity (ROE) = Net profit margin * Asset turnover *Leverage ratio

Additionally, Return on Assets (ROA) = Net profit margin * Assetturnover

¹ based on net income available to common shareholders2 The figures in parentheses following the names of the companies arereferred to ROA.

April 2015

0,5 0,9 0,4 0,3

3,8

1,3 1,5 0,96,8

4,52,7

1,6

-0,9 -3,9 -2,7

-11,6

3,9 2,5 1,9 2,95,1 4,0 5,1

10,5

13,2 10,32,2 1,6

-17,9 -19,7 -20,5

-105 -110,0

-60,0

-10,0

40,0

90,0

140,0

HT

O

CO

CA-

COLA

HBC

ΤΙΤΑΝ PP

C

Mot

or O

il

ELPE

Intr

alot

Frig

ocla

ss

DuPont Analysis (2014)

Asset turnover Net common profit margin¹ (%)

leverage ratio Return on common equity (%)

Motor Oil (-3,5)

Intralot (-4,0)

ELPE (-4,9)

COCA-COLA HBC (4,2)

Frigoglass (-10,0)

HTO (3,4)

ΤΙΤΑΝ (1,1)

PPC (0,6)

-15

-10

-5

0

5

10

0 2 4 6 8 10 12

Net

co

mm

on

inco

me

ma

rgin

1(%

)

Asset turnover

Return on assets2 (%) (2014)

Page 19: Greek Fixed Income Monitor

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19April 2015