green economy assessing trends and impacts...associate, iisd, switzerland extraordinary associate...
TRANSCRIPT
Green Economy -
Assessing trends and impacts
A discussion over lunch on the Green Economy
Geneva, September 20,2016
KnowlEdge Srl
Andrea M.Bassi, Ph.D.
Founder and CEO, KnowlEdge Srl, Italy
Associate, IISD, Switzerland
Extraordinary Associate Professor of System Dynamics Modelling, Stellenbosch University, South Africa
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Setting the context
The Green Economy:
• Involves several sectors
• Requires the involvement of several actors
• Has been known for a long time
Setting the context (actors)
The Green Investment Report. 2016. World Economic Forum
Wind power: 1980 – 2010 (grid parity)
1980 2010 2020 1990 2000
Solar power : 1990 – 2016 (grid parity)
Algae (remediation): 2008 -
??
Main advantages: - Technology development and international leadership - Private sector profitability (from leadership) - Employment creation - Low carbon development (replacing coal with wind power)
Main advantages: - Technology development and international leadership - Potential private sector profitability (from leadership
and use of technology) - New business opportunities from waste reuse - Improved performance across sectoral value chains
- Employment creation - Reduced pollution (also avoiding costs of remediation)
Today
Hydrogen: 1990 -
Main advantages: - Technology development and international leadership - Potential private sector profitability (from leadership) - Employment creation - Low carbon development (power storage capacity)
Wastewater treatment and CO2 sequestration (2018) Biorefinery development, high value compounds (investment driven)
Denmark
China
Porras, I., Barton, D.N, Miranda, M. and Chacón-Cascante, A. (2013). Learning from 20 years of Payments for
Ecosystem Services in Costa Rica. International Institute for Environment and Development, London.
Setting the context (timeline)
Setting the context (2)
So far:
• There are no assessments at the national level
• The are over 300 sectoral assessments across countries
Setting the context (municipalities)
REvLOCAL - Revitalisation of local economy by development of renewable energy, August 2016. IEA.
Understanding Green Economy. 2014. ESPON
Setting the context (regions)
11
In islands, the LCOE of a solar PV rooftop system with a capacity factor of 15% is comprised between 0.12 and 0.18 US$/kW, compared to an average electricity price of 0.35 -1 US$/kWh (oversized diesel in small island resorts). PV can generate electricity cheaper than the short-run marginal cost of most islands generators
Electricitypricerangein
islands(dieselgenerators)
0
0,2
0,4
0,6
0,8
1
1,2
0
0,2
0,4
0,6
0,8
1
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PV
US$/kWh
Lowcostofcapital Mediumcostofcapital Highcostofcapital
baseline(min) baseline(max-min)
Setting the context (regions)
Setting the context (3)
So far:
• Some easy solutions have been found:
– Substitution (energy)
– Conservation (energy and water)
• Some difficulties have emerged:
– High capital cost
– Resistance to behavioral change (e.g. diet)
– Uncertainty (mitigation vs adaptation)
SOER 2015 The European environment
- state and outlook 2015 European Environment Agency.
Setting the context (energy)
Frankfurt School-UNEP Centre/BNEF. 2016. Global Trends in Renewable Energy Investment 2016
Setting the context (uncertainty)
The Green Investment Report. 2013. World Economic Forum
• Intervention: public transport network – investment
• job creation (income)
• costs and job creation for road construction (cost and income)
– km driven/car use • energy consumption (bbl + $)
• emissions (ton + $)
• safety (accidents + $)
• health (sick days + $)
• travel time (time and $)
– population density • Transit oriented development (TOD) -> real estate value ($)
Transport infrastructure (public transport)
Transport infrastructure (public transport) (2)
0
20
40
60
80
100
120
140
Today 2015 2030
Investment added benefit avoided costs
Capital costs
Employment Reduced congestion
Lower PM10
Avoided road expansion and maintenance cost
Avoided fuel consumption
Road safety
2020
Transport infrastructure (public transport) (3)
0
20
40
60
80
100
120
140
Today 2015 2030
Investment added benefit avoided costs
Capital costs
Employment Reduced congestion
Lower PM10
Avoided road expansion and maintenance cost
Avoided fuel consumption
Road safety
Public sector: reduced budgetary expenditure
Private sector and households: reduced energy bill
Public sector: higher budgetary expenditure
Public and private sector: higher productivity, hence GDP and tax revenues
Private sector and households: better air, lower health costs
2020
0
20
40
60
80
100
120
Today 2015 2030
Investment addedbenefit avoidedcosts
Public sector
0
20
40
60
80
100
120
Today 2015 2030
Investment addedbenefit avoidedcosts
Private sector
0
20
40
60
80
100
120
140
Today 2015 2030
Investment addedbenefit avoidedcosts
Integrated perspective
2020 2020
2020
Transport infrastructure (public transport) (4)
Summary
Thank you!
For more information you can find me at:
www.ke-srl.com
KnowlEdge Srl