green energy production and the russian energy industry: same route, same goal?

Green energy production and the Russian energy industry: Same

route, same goal?International practice in energy efficiency and power saving

I.M. Lobovsky, Executive Director of the Global Energy International Prize

1. Земля как объект антропогенной энергетики

121069, Moscow, Stolovy pereulok, building 4, office 2, Phone: +7 (495) 739-54-35, Fax: +7 (495) 690-24-98; Web site: www.globalenergyprize.org; e-mail: info@ge-

prize.org

Renewable energy sources: rhetoric and realityThe change to green power is often seen as the main way of improving the planet’s environment.Governments of developed countries have adopted regulatory programmes to develop green power production and are spending billion dollar budgets to implement these policies.Special tariffs and “green certificate” programmes are being introduced to attract investment in the industry which enable suppliers and consumers of such energy to enjoy incentives and additional profits. Green architecture is a way to improve efficiency in power consumption.

1. Земля как объект антропогенной энергетики

121069, Moscow, Stolovy pereulok, building 4, office 2, Phone: +7 (495) 739-54-35, Fax: +7 (495) 690-24-98; Web site: www.globalenergyprize.org; e-mail: [email protected]

Renewable energy sources: rhetoric and realityBy the beginning of 2008, 43 countries had plans to change to renewable sources of energy. Countries eager to cast off their dependence on fossil fuels (oil, gas and coal) plan to produce 5-30% of their electricity using hydro, solar, wind and biomass technologies by 2011. Austria is the most ambitious in this respect (by 2010, it plans to produce 78% of its power using renewable energy), followed by Sweden (60%) and Latvia (49,3%).

Earth’s population

Population of Earth is about 7 billion inhabitants


Growth of world population Billions of inhabitants Billions of inhabitants

Developing countries Developed countries

Power consumptionPower consumption constantly grows and now exceeds

13 billion

tonnes of oil eq./year

or on average ≈ 2 tonnes of

oil eq./person/year

or

≈ 3 kW/person121069, Moscow, Stolovy pereulok, building 4, office 2, Phone: +7 (495) 739-54-35, Fax: +7 (495) 690-24-98; Web site: www.globalenergyprize.org; e-mail: [email protected]

First wave in development of world power industry

Power consumption

Fuel wood and wastes Coal Oil Gas Hydropower Nuclear powerRenewable energy

Comparative scale of anthropogenic energy productionThe average muscular capacity of a person is 100…150 W/personTaking into account various energy sources of power available to an individual has increased

30 times (3 kW/person),and in developed countries – hundreds of timesSolar energy on the Earth’s surface (excluding atmosphere is 1.4 kW/m2) – 173,000 TW (173,1012 kW)or on average 25 mW/personEnergy demands by the Earth’s population amounts to ≈ 1/10,000 of the solar energy reaching Earth.Furthermore, energy demands have reached

nearly 50% of the energy created by photosynthesis (≈ 40 TW),providing for life on Earth which is beginning to be negatively reflected in the environment


Growth of world populationBillions of

inhabitants

Billions of inhabitants

Developed countries

Developing countries

First wave in development of world power industry

Fuel wood and wastes Coal Oil Gas Hydropower Nuclear powerRenewable energy

Structure of global energy consumption


Change in structure of global energy consumption

World energy balance

Biomass Coal Oil Gas Hydropower Nuclear powerNew renewable energysources

Nuclear power plants

Gas

Oil

Renewable energy sources, 8%

RES

Coal

Hydropower, 15%

Biomass, 77%

Wood, 87%

Municipal and Industrial waste

Agricultural waste

Conclusion 1

Given the current levels of energy consumption worldwide and in individual countries, we cannot and must not aim to achieve the current level of energy consumption for the more resource rich countries.

Given the global population now numbers approximately 7 billion people, an attempt to increase the scale of energy requirements for a single person to the average level of the “Golden Billion” would require an increase of energy production to at least three times greater than the production of primary resources, which given the stabilization of fossil fuel extraction and environmental limitations is clearly already impossible and irrational!

It is therefore necessary to direct our resources to improving energy efficiency and

diversify sources of energy!


GDP power intensity

Power consumption for gross domestic product of different countries, toe/$1,000 (source: KEY WORLD ENERGY STATISTICS, IEA, 2009)

It should be borne in mind that such indicators reflect the country’s energy efficiency only indirectly. To ascertain the potential improvement to energy efficiency detailed analysis of the economic structure, foreign trade balance, climatic and geographical features, comparative study of power process efficiency and balances in separate economic sectors and regions.


Whole w

orld

C

hina

Developed countri

es (OECD)

Gre

at Brit

ain

Japan

G

ermany

France

USA

Canada

Russia

Ukrain

e

Belarus

Kazakhsta

n

Bra

zil

India

GD

P p

ow

er

inte

ns

ity,

to

e/$

1,0

00

C

hina

Main problems of the global energy industry


World divided into oil exporters (green) and importers (red)

- “Unfair” and irregular distribution of fossil resources in the world and hence respective power-related safety issues for countries and regions;

- Reduction in production of cheap fossil fuel in the near future;

- Growing environmental threats

The energy industry is a major cause of world economic, financial and political crises.

Conclusion 2

The in equal distribution of fossil resources round the world and the reduction in the accessible deposits of fossil fuels, and the preoccupation of many countries around the globe with the problem of energy security, accompanied by the global concern surrounding climate change caused by the harmful consequences of traditional energy on the environment, will inevitably lead to changes in the balance of power during the next decade and to a reduction in the demand for oil, gas and coal.

What can replace fossil fuels given the continued absolute growth in energy consumption?


Earth power resources

Apart from fossil fuels, humanity has large resources for nuclear power (fission and fusion) and renewable energy sources (RES) at its disposal.

A revival in nuclear power is expected (with certain constraints) while practical use of renewable sources of energy is gaining momentum.


MODERN POWER CONSUMPTION AND POWER RESOURCES

World power consumption

Oil

Gas

Uranium

Coal

Wind

Hydropower

Photosynthesis

Annual influx of solar energy

Renewable energy – innovation in the energy sector

Advantages of Renewable Energy- wide range of sources for renewable energy,

- sources of renewable energy exceed regional demands by many times,

- more or less uniform distribution across the globe and all-pervasive presence of various types of renewable energy,

- renewable nature of the resources,

- environmental cleanness: no emissions, no thermal pollution of planet


ВИЭ солнечного происхождения

So

lar

po

we

r

RENEWABLE ENERGY SOURCES (RES)

RES of solar origin

Win

d p

ow

er

Bio

ma

ss

po

we

r

Min

or

riv

er

po

we

r

Se

a w

av

e p

ow

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Ge

oth

erm

al

en

erg

y

Tid

al

po

we

r

Lo

w-g

rad

e h

ea

t

Oth

ers

Sources of renewable energy – innovation in the energy sector

Status and trends in renewable energy around the globe

Investment in renewable energy in 2008 came to $120 billion.

The established capacity of electricity generators using renewable sources of energy (excluding large scale hydro-electric stations) by the end of 2008 was more than 280 GW (> 5% of the total capacity of all electricity generators around the world, > 3.5% of the global electricity production and > 25% of the electricity generated by all of the nuclear power stations around the world. In April 2009 generation from renewable energy exceeded that of nuclear power stations for the first time.


Whole w

orld

Developin

g countries

E

U-27

C

hina

USA

Germ

any

India

Spain

Japan

PV convertersGeothermal PPBiomass

Small Hydro PP

Wind

GW


Status and trends in renewable energy around the globe (continuation)

The total capacity of photovoltaic converters has reached 16 GW, furthermore in 2008 more than 5 GW (> 3 GW – PV Power Plant) of PV converters were put into production, a growth in sales for PV converters of approximately 70%;

The total thermal capacity of solar heating in 2008 reached 145 GW (more than 180 million m2 of solar energy collectors), and solar water heaters are owned in more than 60 million houses, an annual growth of more than 15%;

The production of bio fuels (ethanol and biodiesel) in 2008 increased to over 79 billion litres per annum (approximately 5% of the annual demand for petrol, bioethanol – 67 billion, biodiesel – 12 billion litres per annum. In comparison with 2004 the production of biodiesel grew six times and bioethanol doubled);

In 30 countries worldwide more than 2 million heat pumps, with a total thermal capacity of more than 30 GW make use of natural and waste heat and provide heat and cooling for buildings;

In 2009 73 countries, of which 20 are developing countries had special government programmes for developing renewable energy and at a governmental level confirmed the indicators that they were being developed for mid to long term: in the majority of cases 15…20% of the energy balance by 2020, and in the EU 40% – by 2040.



Main shortcomings of renewable energy which inhibit their promotion on the power market

- (Daily and seasonal) instability of power flux (sun, wind, hydropower)

- Low density of power flux

solar radiation at noon, on clear day – 1 kW/m2, annual average flux density < 250 W/m2 (for Russia moderate climate zone – 120 W/m2).

wind flux at wind speed of 10 m/s – 500 W/m2.

water flux at speed 1 m/s – 500 W/m2.

For comparison: density of heat flux against the wall of boiler furnace reaches several hundred kW/m2.

As a result – large collation area, high material consumption and high cost of generated power.



Main areas for use of renewable energy:- Electricity production;- Thermal and cold production;- Production of alternative fuels, first and foremost – bio fuel.A broad range of technologies for converting energy are being developed, by which primary sources of renewable energy can be applied to produce various types of energy products.

Innovative technology for the use of renewable energy- Technology for thermodynamics and direct conversion of solar energy into electricity;- Technology for solar water heating, heating, drying and cooling systems based on efficient solar collectors;- Technology for converting wind energy into electricity;- Technology for geothermal systems and production of electricity;- Technology for processing biomass with a view to creating alternative forms of hard (fuel bricks), liquid and gas fuels;- Technology for converting energy from small water currents into electricity;- Technology for converting energy from tidal activity and wave motion;- Technology for using natural and waste industrial heat for heating using heat pumps.


Development of renewable energy sources in Russia, an important factor for economic development


Investments / Installed capacity

Markup on wholesale market price, rouble/kWh

∆ С*

∆ С*

∆ С0

Budget expenditures

Budget tax returns

Budget profit

Zone of negative investment profitability

According to estimates, as the budget markup on the market price for renewable energy reaches 2.5 rouble/kWh, for 1 rouble/kWh of budget expenditures, budget profit at the level of 1.4 rouble/kWh becomes possible!

Research on renewable energy sources is rewarded with the Global Energy International Prize in Russia


Global Energy International Prize has been awarded

to 22 winners from 9 countries since 2003.

14 people (64%) have received it for their research

in renewable energy sources

Research on renewable energy is rewarded with the Global Energy International Prize in Russia


Academician V.Е. Fortov – R & D “roadmap” of technological development for Russia's energy strategy till 2030; Academician E.P. Volkov – Concept of technological development in electrical power engineering till 2030; Academician N.N. Ponomarev-Stepnoy – Alternative concepts for development of the nuclear power industry in Russia till 2050; Academician А.Е. Sheindlin – Program of Presidium, Russian Acad. of Sci., “Fundamentals for development of power generation systems and processes”; Academician О.N. Favorsky – Report “Innovative development of Russian energy industry till 2030”.

Summary


Renewable energy is quite promising, innovative and progressively cost effective, still, as a rule, it requires support from the state or regional administration. By 2020, the contribution of renewable energy sources to power generation in Russia shall grow from 1% to 4.5%.

Renewable energy application processes are diverse, there are no typical solutions and standard evaluation techniques so far, therefore qualified experts should be involved both for substantiating the design and for system development. Demonstration facilities erected in regions of Russia would be extremely desirable.

Development of autonomous consumer power- and heat supply systems in remote areas (2/3 of country territory with 20 mln inhabitants) is a major issue for Russia.

In the network-based Russian power industry, resort to renewable energy sources is promising with the state support, first and foremost, for power-hungry and remote areas.