green markets, sustainable business · michael liebreich centre for enterprise, markets and ethics,...
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![Page 1: GREEN MARKETS, SUSTAINABLE BUSINESS · Michael Liebreich Centre for Enterprise, Markets and Ethics, 2 March 2017 @MLiebreich 3 $62bn $88bn $128bn $175bn $205bn $207bn $276bn $317bn](https://reader034.vdocument.in/reader034/viewer/2022050300/5f699428a953de64bf5e4460/html5/thumbnails/1.jpg)
GREEN MARKETS, SUSTAINABLE BUSINESS
Michael Liebreich
Chairman of the Advisory Board
Twitter: @mliebreich
Centre for Enterprise, Markets and
Ethics, 2 March 2017
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1Michael Liebreich @MLiebreichCentre for Enterprise, Markets and Ethics, 2 March 2017
THE LEGACY ENERGY SYSTEM
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2Michael Liebreich @MLiebreichCentre for Enterprise, Markets and Ethics, 2 March 2017
THE EMERGING ENERGY SYSTEM
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3Michael Liebreich @MLiebreichCentre for Enterprise, Markets and Ethics, 2 March 2017
$62bn
$88bn
$128bn
$175bn
$205bn $207bn
$276bn
$317bn
$291bn
$269bn
$315bn
$349bn
$287bn
0
100
200
300
400
500
2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017
Note: Total values include estimates for undisclosed deals. Includes corporate and
government R&D, and spending for digital energy and energy storage projects (not
reported in quarterly statistics). Excludes large hydro. Source: Bloomberg Intelligence, Bloomberg New Energy Finance
GLOBAL CLEAN ENERGY INVESTMENT & CAPACITY ADDITIONS
Forecast
![Page 5: GREEN MARKETS, SUSTAINABLE BUSINESS · Michael Liebreich Centre for Enterprise, Markets and Ethics, 2 March 2017 @MLiebreich 3 $62bn $88bn $128bn $175bn $205bn $207bn $276bn $317bn](https://reader034.vdocument.in/reader034/viewer/2022050300/5f699428a953de64bf5e4460/html5/thumbnails/5.jpg)
4Michael Liebreich @MLiebreichCentre for Enterprise, Markets and Ethics, 2 March 2017
$62bn
$88bn
$128bn
$175bn
$205bn $207bn
$276bn
$317bn
$291bn
$269bn
$315bn
$349bn
$287bn
0
100
200
300
400
500
2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017
Note: Total values include estimates for undisclosed deals. Includes corporate and
government R&D, and spending for digital energy and energy storage projects (not
reported in quarterly statistics). Excludes large hydro. Source: Bloomberg Intelligence, Bloomberg New Energy Finance
“Spend the
same,
get more”
0
20
40
60
80
100
120
140
160
180
0
100
200
300
400
500
2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017
20GW
88GW
160GW“Spend more,
get more”
Forecast
GLOBAL CLEAN ENERGY INVESTMENT & CAPACITY ADDITIONS
![Page 6: GREEN MARKETS, SUSTAINABLE BUSINESS · Michael Liebreich Centre for Enterprise, Markets and Ethics, 2 March 2017 @MLiebreich 3 $62bn $88bn $128bn $175bn $205bn $207bn $276bn $317bn](https://reader034.vdocument.in/reader034/viewer/2022050300/5f699428a953de64bf5e4460/html5/thumbnails/6.jpg)
5Michael Liebreich @MLiebreichCentre for Enterprise, Markets and Ethics, 2 March 2017
Note: New investment volume adjusts for re-invested equity. Total values include estimates for undisclosed deals. Source: Bloomberg New Energy Finance
RENEWABLE ENERGY INVESTMENT BY REGION 2004-2015 ($BN)
5.611.9
29.133.2
35.5
23.9
34.7
49.140.6
35.337.0
44.1
'04'05'06'07'08'09'10'11'12'13'14'15
United States
0.83.15.2
11.411.8
7.97.210.2
7.74.4
8.07.1
'04 '05 '06 '07 '08 '09 '10 '11 '12 '13 '14 '15
Brazil
1.73.33.75.06.15.5
12.09.3
10.112.0
13.3
12.8
'04 '05 '06 '07 '08 '09 '10 '11 '12 '13 '14 '15
AMER (excl. US & Brazil)
24.833.3
46.9
66.8
81.882.7
113.4122.9
89.0
60.062.0
48.8
'04 '05 '06 '07 '08 '09 '10 '11 '12 '13 '14 '15
Europe
7.39.010.012.413.613.919.3
23.8
30.2
44.4
48.847.6
'04 '05 '06 '07 '08 '09 '10 '11 '12 '13 '14 '15
ASOC (excl. China & India)
3.08.3
11.216.7
25.6
38.839.6
47.461.7
62.0
87.8
102.9
'04 '05 '06 '07 '08 '09 '10 '11 '12 '13 '14 '15
China
2.73.04.96.75.64.38.8
12.87.86.68.3
10.2
'04 '05 '06 '07 '08 '09 '10 '11 '12 '13 '14 '15
India0.60.81.11.82.31.6
4.13.0
10.29.37.912.5
'04 '05 '06 '07 '08 '09 '10 '11 '12 '13 '14 '15
Middle East & Africa
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6Michael Liebreich @MLiebreichCentre for Enterprise, Markets and Ethics, 2 March 2017
Source: UNEP, Bloomberg New Energy Finance
INVESTMENT IN POWER CAPACITY, 2008–15 ($BN)
Renewables ex large hydro
Fossil fuel
Nuclear
Large hydro
0
50
100
150
200
250
300
2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015
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7Michael Liebreich @MLiebreichCentre for Enterprise, Markets and Ethics, 2 March 2017
Note: Includes hydro Source: BP Statistical Review of
Energy, Bloomberg New Energy Finance
RENEWABLE ENERGY PROPORTION OF POWER GENERATION, 10 YEARS TO 2015 (%)
Canada
76%
US
13%
Brazil
71%
China
22%
Japan
11%
Australia
16%India
6%
S. Africa
2%
0% Lowest
50% Mid
100% Highest
9%14%
US
61%67%
Canada
89%79%
Brazil
1% 3%
South Africa
17% 18%
India
10%17%
Australia
10%15%
Japan
16%25%
China
5%
26%UK
12%
36%
Germany16%
69%Denmark
21%
37%
Spain
20%
40%
Italy
12%17%
France
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8Michael Liebreich @MLiebreichCentre for Enterprise, Markets and Ethics, 2 March 2017
2011 UNSUBSIDISED CLEAN ENERGYWORLD RECORDS
Source: Bloomberg New Energy Finance; ImagesSiemens; Wikimedia Commons
ONSHORE WIND SOLAR PV
US$ 6.2 cents/kWh US$ 17 cents/kWh
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9Michael Liebreich @MLiebreichCentre for Enterprise, Markets and Ethics, 2 March 2017
2016 UNSUBSIDISED CLEAN ENERGYWORLD RECORDS
Source: Bloomberg New Energy Finance; ImagesSiemens; Wikimedia Commons
ONSHORE WIND SOLAR PV
Location:
Bidder:
Signed:
Construction:
Price:
Morocco
Enel Green Power
January 2016
2018
US$ 3.0 c/kWh
Location:
Bidder:
Signed:
Construction:
Price:
Peru
Enel Green Power
February 2016
2017
US$ 4.8 c/kWh
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10Michael Liebreich @MLiebreichCentre for Enterprise, Markets and Ethics, 2 March 2017
2016 UNSUBSIDISED CLEAN ENERGYWORLD RECORDS
Source: Bloomberg New Energy Finance; ImagesSiemens; Wikimedia Commons
ONSHORE WIND SOLAR PV
Location:
Bidder:
Signed:
Construction:
Price:
Morocco
Enel Green Power
January 2016
2018
US$ 3.0 c/kWh
Location:
Bidder:
Signed:
Construction:
Price:
Coahuila, Mexico
Enel Green Power
March 2016
2018
US$ 3.6 c/kWh
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11Michael Liebreich @MLiebreichCentre for Enterprise, Markets and Ethics, 2 March 2017
2016 UNSUBSIDISED CLEAN ENERGYWORLD RECORDS
Source: Bloomberg New Energy Finance; ImagesSiemens; Wikimedia Commons
ONSHORE WIND SOLAR PV
Location:
Bidder:
Signed:
Construction:
Price:
Morocco
Enel Green Power
January 2016
2018
US$ 3.0 c/kWh
Location:
Bidder:
Signed:
Construction:
Price:
Dubai
Masdar Consortium
May 2016
2019
US$ 2.99 c/kWh
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12Michael Liebreich @MLiebreichCentre for Enterprise, Markets and Ethics, 2 March 2017
2016 UNSUBSIDISED CLEAN ENERGYWORLD RECORDS
Source: Bloomberg New Energy Finance; ImagesSiemens; Wikimedia Commons
ONSHORE WIND SOLAR PV
Location:
Bidder:
Signed:
Construction:
Price:
Morocco
Enel Green Power
January 2016
2018
US$ 3.0 c/kWh
Location:
Bidder:
Signed:
Construction:
Price:
Chile
Solarpack Corporation
August 2016
2019
US$ 2.91 c/kWh
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13Michael Liebreich @MLiebreichCentre for Enterprise, Markets and Ethics, 2 March 2017
16
32
64
128
256
512
1,024
100 1,000 10,000 100,000 1,000,000
1985
2016
19992009
Cumulative capacity (MW)
0.1
1
10
100
1 10 100 1,000 10,000 100,000 1,000,000
1976
1985
2003
2012
Cumulative capacity (MW)
2016
2008
WIND COSTS
HAVE FALLEN
60% SINCE 2004
WIND AND SOLAR EXPERIENCE CURVES
Note: Prices are in real (2015) USD. ‘Current price’ is $0.4/W
Source: Bloomberg New Energy Finance, Maycock
Note: Pricing data has been inflation corrected to 2014. We assume the debt ratio of
70%, cost of debt (bps to LIBOR) of 175, cost of equity of 8%. *Data is for Northern
Europe.
Source: Bloomberg New Energy Finance
LEARNING RATE
24.3%
SOLAR COSTS
HAVE FALLEN
>99% SINCE 1976
90% since 2004
SOLAR PV MODULE COST ($/W)ONSHORE WIND LEVELISED COST*
($/MWH)
LEARNING RATE
19%
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14Michael Liebreich @MLiebreichCentre for Enterprise, Markets and Ethics, 2 March 2017
CAPACITY FACTOR IMPROVEMENTS
LONGER BLADESLOW-WIND TURBINES
AT HIGH-WIND SITES
SITE-OPTIMISED POWER CURVES HIGHER TOWERS
Source: Siemens, Nordex, GE, Vestas
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15Michael Liebreich @MLiebreichCentre for Enterprise, Markets and Ethics, 2 March 2017
RENEWABLE ENERGY - THE MARCH OF THE PRICE SIGNAL
Market-based mechanisms – eg renewable energy auctions, certificate schemes, renewable
portfolio standards
Feed-in tariff/premiums
Mixed
Countries with auction or tender programmes
2000
![Page 17: GREEN MARKETS, SUSTAINABLE BUSINESS · Michael Liebreich Centre for Enterprise, Markets and Ethics, 2 March 2017 @MLiebreich 3 $62bn $88bn $128bn $175bn $205bn $207bn $276bn $317bn](https://reader034.vdocument.in/reader034/viewer/2022050300/5f699428a953de64bf5e4460/html5/thumbnails/17.jpg)
16Michael Liebreich @MLiebreichCentre for Enterprise, Markets and Ethics, 2 March 2017
RENEWABLE ENERGY - THE MARCH OF THE PRICE SIGNAL
Market-based mechanisms – eg renewable energy auctions, certificate schemes, renewable
portfolio standards
Feed-in tariff/premiums
Mixed
Countries with auction or tender programmes
2001
Market-based mechanisms – eg renewable energy auctions, certificate schemes, renewable
portfolio standards
Feed-in tariff/premiums
Mixed
Countries with auction or tender programmes
![Page 18: GREEN MARKETS, SUSTAINABLE BUSINESS · Michael Liebreich Centre for Enterprise, Markets and Ethics, 2 March 2017 @MLiebreich 3 $62bn $88bn $128bn $175bn $205bn $207bn $276bn $317bn](https://reader034.vdocument.in/reader034/viewer/2022050300/5f699428a953de64bf5e4460/html5/thumbnails/18.jpg)
17Michael Liebreich @MLiebreichCentre for Enterprise, Markets and Ethics, 2 March 2017
RENEWABLE ENERGY - THE MARCH OF THE PRICE SIGNAL
Market-based mechanisms – eg renewable energy auctions, certificate schemes, renewable
portfolio standards
Feed-in tariff/premiums
Mixed
Countries with auction or tender programmes
2002
Market-based mechanisms – eg renewable energy auctions, certificate schemes, renewable
portfolio standards
Feed-in tariff/premiums
Mixed
Countries with auction or tender programmes
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18Michael Liebreich @MLiebreichCentre for Enterprise, Markets and Ethics, 2 March 2017
RENEWABLE ENERGY - THE MARCH OF THE PRICE SIGNAL
Market-based mechanisms – eg renewable energy auctions, certificate schemes, renewable
portfolio standards
Feed-in tariff/premiums
Mixed
Countries with auction or tender programmes
2003
Market-based mechanisms – eg renewable energy auctions, certificate schemes, renewable
portfolio standards
Feed-in tariff/premiums
Mixed
Countries with auction or tender programmes
![Page 20: GREEN MARKETS, SUSTAINABLE BUSINESS · Michael Liebreich Centre for Enterprise, Markets and Ethics, 2 March 2017 @MLiebreich 3 $62bn $88bn $128bn $175bn $205bn $207bn $276bn $317bn](https://reader034.vdocument.in/reader034/viewer/2022050300/5f699428a953de64bf5e4460/html5/thumbnails/20.jpg)
19Michael Liebreich @MLiebreichCentre for Enterprise, Markets and Ethics, 2 March 2017
RENEWABLE ENERGY - THE MARCH OF THE PRICE SIGNAL
Market-based mechanisms – eg renewable energy auctions, certificate schemes, renewable
portfolio standards
Feed-in tariff/premiums
Mixed
Countries with auction or tender programmes
2004
Market-based mechanisms – eg renewable energy auctions, certificate schemes, renewable
portfolio standards
Feed-in tariff/premiums
Mixed
Countries with auction or tender programmes
![Page 21: GREEN MARKETS, SUSTAINABLE BUSINESS · Michael Liebreich Centre for Enterprise, Markets and Ethics, 2 March 2017 @MLiebreich 3 $62bn $88bn $128bn $175bn $205bn $207bn $276bn $317bn](https://reader034.vdocument.in/reader034/viewer/2022050300/5f699428a953de64bf5e4460/html5/thumbnails/21.jpg)
20Michael Liebreich @MLiebreichCentre for Enterprise, Markets and Ethics, 2 March 2017
RENEWABLE ENERGY - THE MARCH OF THE PRICE SIGNAL
Market-based mechanisms – eg renewable energy auctions, certificate schemes, renewable
portfolio standards
Feed-in tariff/premiums
Mixed
Countries with auction or tender programmes
2005
Market-based mechanisms – eg renewable energy auctions, certificate schemes, renewable
portfolio standards
Feed-in tariff/premiums
Mixed
Countries with auction or tender programmes
![Page 22: GREEN MARKETS, SUSTAINABLE BUSINESS · Michael Liebreich Centre for Enterprise, Markets and Ethics, 2 March 2017 @MLiebreich 3 $62bn $88bn $128bn $175bn $205bn $207bn $276bn $317bn](https://reader034.vdocument.in/reader034/viewer/2022050300/5f699428a953de64bf5e4460/html5/thumbnails/22.jpg)
21Michael Liebreich @MLiebreichCentre for Enterprise, Markets and Ethics, 2 March 2017
RENEWABLE ENERGY - THE MARCH OF THE PRICE SIGNAL
Market-based mechanisms – eg, renewable energy auctions, certificate schemes, renewable
portfolio standards
Feed-in tariff/premiums
Mixed
Countries with auction or tender programmes
2006
Market-based mechanisms – eg renewable energy auctions, certificate schemes, renewable
portfolio standards
Feed-in tariff/premiums
Mixed
Countries with auction or tender programmes
![Page 23: GREEN MARKETS, SUSTAINABLE BUSINESS · Michael Liebreich Centre for Enterprise, Markets and Ethics, 2 March 2017 @MLiebreich 3 $62bn $88bn $128bn $175bn $205bn $207bn $276bn $317bn](https://reader034.vdocument.in/reader034/viewer/2022050300/5f699428a953de64bf5e4460/html5/thumbnails/23.jpg)
22Michael Liebreich @MLiebreichCentre for Enterprise, Markets and Ethics, 2 March 2017
RENEWABLE ENERGY - THE MARCH OF THE PRICE SIGNAL
Market-based mechanisms – eg, renewable energy auctions, certificate schemes, renewable
portfolio standards
Feed-in tariff/premiums
Mixed
Countries with auction or tender programmes
2007
Market-based mechanisms – eg renewable energy auctions, certificate schemes, renewable
portfolio standards
Feed-in tariff/premiums
Mixed
Countries with auction or tender programmes
![Page 24: GREEN MARKETS, SUSTAINABLE BUSINESS · Michael Liebreich Centre for Enterprise, Markets and Ethics, 2 March 2017 @MLiebreich 3 $62bn $88bn $128bn $175bn $205bn $207bn $276bn $317bn](https://reader034.vdocument.in/reader034/viewer/2022050300/5f699428a953de64bf5e4460/html5/thumbnails/24.jpg)
23Michael Liebreich @MLiebreichCentre for Enterprise, Markets and Ethics, 2 March 2017
RENEWABLE ENERGY - THE MARCH OF THE PRICE SIGNAL
Market-based mechanisms – eg, renewable energy auctions, certificate schemes, renewable
portfolio standards
Feed-in tariff/premiums
Mixed
Countries with auction or tender programmes
2008
Market-based mechanisms – eg renewable energy auctions, certificate schemes, renewable
portfolio standards
Feed-in tariff/premiums
Mixed
Countries with auction or tender programmes
![Page 25: GREEN MARKETS, SUSTAINABLE BUSINESS · Michael Liebreich Centre for Enterprise, Markets and Ethics, 2 March 2017 @MLiebreich 3 $62bn $88bn $128bn $175bn $205bn $207bn $276bn $317bn](https://reader034.vdocument.in/reader034/viewer/2022050300/5f699428a953de64bf5e4460/html5/thumbnails/25.jpg)
24Michael Liebreich @MLiebreichCentre for Enterprise, Markets and Ethics, 2 March 2017
RENEWABLE ENERGY - THE MARCH OF THE PRICE SIGNAL
Market-based mechanisms – eg, renewable energy auctions, certificate schemes, renewable
portfolio standards
Feed-in tariff/premiums
Mixed
Countries with auction or tender programmes
2009
Market-based mechanisms – eg renewable energy auctions, certificate schemes, renewable
portfolio standards
Feed-in tariff/premiums
Mixed
Countries with auction or tender programmes
![Page 26: GREEN MARKETS, SUSTAINABLE BUSINESS · Michael Liebreich Centre for Enterprise, Markets and Ethics, 2 March 2017 @MLiebreich 3 $62bn $88bn $128bn $175bn $205bn $207bn $276bn $317bn](https://reader034.vdocument.in/reader034/viewer/2022050300/5f699428a953de64bf5e4460/html5/thumbnails/26.jpg)
25Michael Liebreich @MLiebreichCentre for Enterprise, Markets and Ethics, 2 March 2017
RENEWABLE ENERGY - THE MARCH OF THE PRICE SIGNAL
Market-based mechanisms – eg, renewable energy auctions, certificate schemes, renewable
portfolio standards
Feed-in tariff/premiums
Mixed
Countries with auction or tender programmes
2010
Market-based mechanisms – eg renewable energy auctions, certificate schemes, renewable
portfolio standards
Feed-in tariff/premiums
Mixed
Countries with auction or tender programmes
![Page 27: GREEN MARKETS, SUSTAINABLE BUSINESS · Michael Liebreich Centre for Enterprise, Markets and Ethics, 2 March 2017 @MLiebreich 3 $62bn $88bn $128bn $175bn $205bn $207bn $276bn $317bn](https://reader034.vdocument.in/reader034/viewer/2022050300/5f699428a953de64bf5e4460/html5/thumbnails/27.jpg)
26Michael Liebreich @MLiebreichCentre for Enterprise, Markets and Ethics, 2 March 2017
RENEWABLE ENERGY - THE MARCH OF THE PRICE SIGNAL
Market-based mechanisms – eg, renewable energy auctions, certificate schemes, renewable
portfolio standards
Feed-in tariff/premiums
Mixed
Countries with auction or tender programmes
2011
Market-based mechanisms – eg renewable energy auctions, certificate schemes, renewable
portfolio standards
Feed-in tariff/premiums
Mixed
Countries with auction or tender programmes
![Page 28: GREEN MARKETS, SUSTAINABLE BUSINESS · Michael Liebreich Centre for Enterprise, Markets and Ethics, 2 March 2017 @MLiebreich 3 $62bn $88bn $128bn $175bn $205bn $207bn $276bn $317bn](https://reader034.vdocument.in/reader034/viewer/2022050300/5f699428a953de64bf5e4460/html5/thumbnails/28.jpg)
27Michael Liebreich @MLiebreichCentre for Enterprise, Markets and Ethics, 2 March 2017
RENEWABLE ENERGY - THE MARCH OF THE PRICE SIGNAL
Market-based mechanisms – eg, renewable energy auctions, certificate schemes, renewable
portfolio standards
Feed-in tariff/premiums
Mixed
Countries with auction or tender programmes
2012
Market-based mechanisms – eg renewable energy auctions, certificate schemes, renewable
portfolio standards
Feed-in tariff/premiums
Mixed
Countries with auction or tender programmes
![Page 29: GREEN MARKETS, SUSTAINABLE BUSINESS · Michael Liebreich Centre for Enterprise, Markets and Ethics, 2 March 2017 @MLiebreich 3 $62bn $88bn $128bn $175bn $205bn $207bn $276bn $317bn](https://reader034.vdocument.in/reader034/viewer/2022050300/5f699428a953de64bf5e4460/html5/thumbnails/29.jpg)
28Michael Liebreich @MLiebreichCentre for Enterprise, Markets and Ethics, 2 March 2017
RENEWABLE ENERGY - THE MARCH OF THE PRICE SIGNAL
Market-based mechanisms – eg, renewable energy auctions, certificate schemes, renewable
portfolio standards
Feed-in tariff/premiums
Mixed
Countries with auction or tender programmes
2013
Market-based mechanisms – eg renewable energy auctions, certificate schemes, renewable
portfolio standards
Feed-in tariff/premiums
Mixed
Countries with auction or tender programmes
![Page 30: GREEN MARKETS, SUSTAINABLE BUSINESS · Michael Liebreich Centre for Enterprise, Markets and Ethics, 2 March 2017 @MLiebreich 3 $62bn $88bn $128bn $175bn $205bn $207bn $276bn $317bn](https://reader034.vdocument.in/reader034/viewer/2022050300/5f699428a953de64bf5e4460/html5/thumbnails/30.jpg)
29Michael Liebreich @MLiebreichCentre for Enterprise, Markets and Ethics, 2 March 2017
RENEWABLE ENERGY - THE MARCH OF THE PRICE SIGNAL
Market-based mechanisms – eg, renewable energy auctions, certificate schemes, renewable
portfolio standards
Feed-in tariff/premiums
Mixed
Countries with auction or tender programmes
2014
Market-based mechanisms – eg renewable energy auctions, certificate schemes, renewable
portfolio standards
Feed-in tariff/premiums
Mixed
Countries with auction or tender programmes
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30Michael Liebreich @MLiebreichCentre for Enterprise, Markets and Ethics, 2 March 2017
RENEWABLE ENERGY - THE MARCH OF THE PRICE SIGNAL
Market-based mechanisms – eg, renewable energy auctions, certificate schemes, renewable
portfolio standards
Feed-in tariff/premiums
Mixed
Countries with auction or tender programmes
2015
Market-based mechanisms – eg renewable energy auctions, certificate schemes, renewable
portfolio standards
Feed-in tariff/premiums
Mixed
Countries with auction or tender programmes
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31Michael Liebreich @MLiebreichCentre for Enterprise, Markets and Ethics, 2 March 2017
RENEWABLE ENERGY - THE MARCH OF THE PRICE SIGNAL
Market-based mechanisms – eg, renewable energy auctions, certificate schemes, renewable
portfolio standards
Feed-in tariff/premiums
Mixed
Countries with auction or tender programmes
2016
Market-based mechanisms – eg renewable energy auctions, certificate schemes, renewable
portfolio standards
Feed-in tariff/premiums
Mixed
Countries with auction or tender programmes
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32Michael Liebreich @MLiebreichCentre for Enterprise, Markets and Ethics, 2 March 2017
ELECTRIC VEHICLES
Source: Bloomberg New Energy Finance, International Organization of Motor Vehicle Manufacturers
CARS AND TRUCKS IN USE
WORLDWIDE, 2016
1.3 billion
ELECTRIC VEHICLES IN USE
WORLDWIDE, END 2016
1.8 million (to scale)
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33Michael Liebreich @MLiebreichCentre for Enterprise, Markets and Ethics, 2 March 2017
Source: Bloomberg New Energy Finance
BNEF BATTERY PRICE LEARNING RATE2013-2016 ($ PER KWH)
Notes: This includes cells plus pack prices. For years where there were two surveys,
the data in this chart is an average for the year. Prices are nominal.
$/kWh
10
100
1,000
10,000
10 100 1,000 10,000 100,000
2011
2012
2013
2014
2015
2010
2016
Cumulative production (MWh)
EV LITHIUM-ION
BATTERY PRICES
HAVE FALLEN
73% since 2010
LEARNING RATE 19%
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34Michael Liebreich @MLiebreichCentre for Enterprise, Markets and Ethics, 2 March 2017
Tesla Model 3
BMW i3
VW e-Golf
Chevy Bolt
Renault-Nissan
Images: Tesla, BMW, VW, GM, Nissan
EV MASS MARKET / SECOND CARS$30,000 + 200 MILES RANGE
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35Michael Liebreich @MLiebreichCentre for Enterprise, Markets and Ethics, 2 March 2017
Picture: UNFCCC
PARIS
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36Michael Liebreich @MLiebreichCentre for Enterprise, Markets and Ethics, 2 March 2017
PARIS
The Paris Agreement is a monumental
triumph for people and our planet.
Ban Ki Moon, former UN SG
This is a turning point. This gives us the best
possible shot to save the one planet we got.
Barack Obama, US President
Today's agreement signals nothing less
than a renaissance for humankind.
Mr. Mogens Lykketoft, President, UN General Assembly
Together we have opened the door to a
sustainable and climate-safe future for all.
Christiana Figueres, former head, UNFCCC
It is a sign of hope. It can have a
positive influence on the living
conditions of billions of people.
Angela Merkel, Chancellor of Germany
The Paris Agreement has been an
unprecedented historic success.
Miguel Arias Cañete, European Commissioner for
Climate Action and Energy
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37Michael Liebreich @MLiebreichCentre for Enterprise, Markets and Ethics, 2 March 2017
Source: UNFCCC, UNEP, Climate Action Tracker, Bloomberg New Energy Finance
GLOBAL GREENHOUSE GAS EMISSIONS(GTCO2)
30
35
40
45
50
55
60
65
1990 1995 2000 2005 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030
Historical emissions
Pre-COP21 pledges
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38Michael Liebreich @MLiebreichCentre for Enterprise, Markets and Ethics, 2 March 2017
GLOBAL GREENHOUSE GAS EMISSIONS(GTCO2)
30
35
40
45
50
55
60
65
1990 1995 2000 2005 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030
Historical emissions
INDC trajectory
Pre-COP21 pledges
Source: UNFCCC, UNEP, Climate Action Tracker, Bloomberg New Energy Finance
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39Michael Liebreich @MLiebreichCentre for Enterprise, Markets and Ethics, 2 March 2017
Source: UNFCCC, UNEP, Climate Action Tracker, Bloomberg New Energy Finance
GLOBAL GREENHOUSE GAS EMISSIONS(GTCO2)
30
35
40
45
50
55
60
65
1990 1995 2000 2005 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030
Historical emissions 2 C trajectory
INDC trajectory
Pre-COP21 pledges
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40Michael Liebreich @MLiebreichCentre for Enterprise, Markets and Ethics, 2 March 2017
Source: Bloomberg New Energy Finance
GLOBAL PRIMARY ENERGY SUPPLY (MTOE)
10,000
5,000
1,000
0
Renewable energy
Natural gas
OilCoal
Nuclear
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41Michael Liebreich @MLiebreichCentre for Enterprise, Markets and Ethics, 2 March 2017
Note: BNEF adjusted IEA NPS forecast using its own electricity generation and EV demand forecast. Renewables total
includes bioenergy and hydro. Source: Bloomberg New Energy Finance, IEA
GLOBAL PRIMARY ENERGY SUPPLY, 1975 (MTOE)
10,000
5,000
1,000
1975
Renewable energy
Natural gas
OilCoal
Nuclear
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42Michael Liebreich @MLiebreichCentre for Enterprise, Markets and Ethics, 2 March 2017
Note: BNEF adjusted IEA NPS forecast using its own electricity generation and EV demand forecast. Renewables total
includes bioenergy and hydro. Source: Bloomberg New Energy Finance, IEA
GLOBAL PRIMARY ENERGY SUPPLY, 1980 (MTOE)
10,000
5,000
1,000
1980
Renewable energy
Natural gas
OilCoal
Nuclear
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43Michael Liebreich @MLiebreichCentre for Enterprise, Markets and Ethics, 2 March 2017
Note: BNEF adjusted IEA NPS forecast using its own electricity generation and EV demand forecast. Renewables total
includes bioenergy and hydro. Source: Bloomberg New Energy Finance, IEA
GLOBAL PRIMARY ENERGY SUPPLY, 1985 (MTOE)
10,000
5,000
1,000
1985
Renewable energy
Natural gas
OilCoal
Nuclear
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44Michael Liebreich @MLiebreichCentre for Enterprise, Markets and Ethics, 2 March 2017
Note: BNEF adjusted IEA NPS forecast using its own electricity generation and EV demand forecast. Renewables total
includes bioenergy and hydro. Source: Bloomberg New Energy Finance, IEA
GLOBAL PRIMARY ENERGY SUPPLY, 1990 (MTOE)
10,000
5,000
1,000
1990
Renewable energy
Natural gas
OilCoal
Nuclear
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45Michael Liebreich @MLiebreichCentre for Enterprise, Markets and Ethics, 2 March 2017
Note: BNEF adjusted IEA NPS forecast using its own electricity generation and EV demand forecast. Renewables total
includes bioenergy and hydro. Source: Bloomberg New Energy Finance, IEA
GLOBAL PRIMARY ENERGY SUPPLY, 1995 (MTOE)
10,000
5,000
1,000
1995
Renewable energy
Natural gas
OilCoal
Nuclear
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46Michael Liebreich @MLiebreichCentre for Enterprise, Markets and Ethics, 2 March 2017
Note: BNEF adjusted IEA NPS forecast using its own electricity generation and EV demand forecast. Renewables total
includes bioenergy and hydro. Source: Bloomberg New Energy Finance, IEA
GLOBAL PRIMARY ENERGY SUPPLY, 2000 (MTOE)
10,000
5,000
1,000
2000
Renewable energy
Natural gas
OilCoal
Nuclear
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47Michael Liebreich @MLiebreichCentre for Enterprise, Markets and Ethics, 2 March 2017
Note: BNEF adjusted IEA NPS forecast using its own electricity generation and EV demand forecast. Renewables total
includes bioenergy and hydro. Source: Bloomberg New Energy Finance, IEA
GLOBAL PRIMARY ENERGY SUPPLY, 2005 (MTOE)
10,000
5,000
1,000
2005
Renewable energy
Natural gas
OilCoal
Nuclear
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48Michael Liebreich @MLiebreichCentre for Enterprise, Markets and Ethics, 2 March 2017
Note: BNEF adjusted IEA NPS forecast using its own electricity generation and EV demand forecast. Renewables total
includes bioenergy and hydro. Source: Bloomberg New Energy Finance, IEA
GLOBAL PRIMARY ENERGY SUPPLY, 2010 (MTOE)
10,000
5,000
1,000
2010
Renewable energy
Natural gas
OilCoal
Nuclear
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49Michael Liebreich @MLiebreichCentre for Enterprise, Markets and Ethics, 2 March 2017
Note: BNEF adjusted IEA NPS forecast using its own electricity generation and EV demand forecast. Renewables total
includes bioenergy and hydro. Source: Bloomberg New Energy Finance, IEA
GLOBAL PRIMARY ENERGY SUPPLY, 2015 (MTOE)
10,000
5,000
1,000
2015
Renewable energy
Natural gas
OilCoal
Nuclear
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50Michael Liebreich @MLiebreichCentre for Enterprise, Markets and Ethics, 2 March 2017
Note: BNEF adjusted IEA NPS forecast using its own electricity generation and EV demand forecast. Renewables total
includes bioenergy and hydro. Source: Bloomberg New Energy Finance, IEA
GLOBAL PRIMARY ENERGY SUPPLY (MTOE)
10,000
5,000
1,000
2015
Renewable energy
Natural gas
OilCoal
Nuclear
BNEF 2040
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51Michael Liebreich @MLiebreichCentre for Enterprise, Markets and Ethics, 2 March 2017
Note: BNEF adjusted IEA NPS forecast using its own electricity generation and EV demand forecast. Renewables total
includes bioenergy and hydro. Source: Bloomberg New Energy Finance, IEA
GLOBAL PRIMARY ENERGY SUPPLY (MTOE)
10,000
5,000
1,000
2015
Renewable energy
Natural gas
OilCoal
Nuclear
BNEF 2040
IEA 450ppm
2040
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52Michael Liebreich @MLiebreichCentre for Enterprise, Markets and Ethics, 2 March 2017
Source: Bloomberg New Energy Finance, IEA
GLOBAL PRIMARY ENERGY SUPPLY (MTOE)
10,000
5,000
1,000
2015
Renewable energy
Natural gas
OilCoal
Nuclear
BNEF 2040
IEA 450ppm
2040
Illustrative
Paris scenario
before 2100
Note: BNEF adjusted IEA NPS forecast using its own electricity generation and EV demand forecast. Renewables total
includes bioenergy and hydro. Paris illustrative scenario assumes some carbon capture.
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53Michael Liebreich @MLiebreichCentre for Enterprise, Markets and Ethics, 2 March 2017
CLEAN ENERGY CAPITAL REQUIREMENT TO 2030($BN)
Note: Global Futures figures from 2008 restated to reflect current investment
calculation methodology
Source: New Energy Finance Global Futures 2008,
Bloomberg New Energy Finance
0
100
200
300
400
500
600
700
800
2004 2006 2008 2010 2012 2014 2016 2018 2020 2022 2024 2026 2028 2030
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54Michael Liebreich @MLiebreichCentre for Enterprise, Markets and Ethics, 2 March 2017
CLEAN ENERGY CAPITAL REQUIREMENT TO 2030($BN)
Note: Global Futures figures from 2008 restated to reflect current investment
calculation methodology
Source: New Energy Finance Global Futures 2008,
Bloomberg New Energy Finance
0
100
200
300
400
500
600
700
800
2004 2006 2008 2010 2012 2014 2016 2018 2020 2022 2024 2026 2028 2030
Average
2010 - 2016
$300 billion
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55Michael Liebreich @MLiebreichCentre for Enterprise, Markets and Ethics, 2 March 2017
Source: Bloomberg New Energy Finance
WHY IS ALL THIS SO HARD?
1. Challenge of information (technology, engineering, human behaviour, economics etc)
2. Challenge of strategy(decision-making in uncertainty, poverty reduction vs growth)
3. Challenge of leadership (political, business, civic society)
4. Challenge of implementation (unintended consequences, agenda creep)
5. Challenge of inertia (social, physical, financial, incumbency)
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