green mountain coffee roasters cagny 2015

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CAGNY CONFERENCE – FEBRUARY 19, 2015 1 Brian Kelley, Chief Executive Officer

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Page 1: Green Mountain Coffee Roasters CAGNY 2015

CAGNY CONFERENCE – FEBRUARY 19, 2015

1

Brian Kelley, Chief Executive Officer

Page 2: Green Mountain Coffee Roasters CAGNY 2015

FORWARD LOOKING STATEMENT

2

Certain information herein constitutes "forward-looking statements." Forward-looking statements can be identified by the fact that they do not relate strictly to historical or current facts. They often include words such as "believes," "expects," "anticipates," "estimates," "intends," "plans," "seeks" or words of similar meaning, or future or conditional verbs, such as "will," "should," "could," "may," "aims," "intends," or "projects." However, the absence of these words or similar expressions does not mean that a statement is not forward-looking. These statements may relate to: the expected impact of raw material costs and our pricing actions on our results of operations and gross margins, expected trends in net sales and earnings performance and other financial measures, the expected productivity and working capital improvements, the success of introducing and producing new product offerings, the impact of foreign exchange fluctuations, the adequacy of internally generated funds and existing sources of liquidity, such as the availability of bank financing, the expected results of operations of businesses acquired by us, our ability to issue debt or additional equity securities, our expectations regarding purchasing shares of our common stock under the existing authorizations, projections of payment of dividends, the impact of pending shareholder litigation, and the impact of antitrust litigation pending against the Company in the United States and Canada. A forward-looking statement is neither a prediction nor a guarantee of future events or circumstances, and those future events or circumstances may not occur. Management believes that these forward-looking statements are reasonable as and when made. However, caution should be taken not to place undue reliance on any such forward-looking statements because such statements speak only as of the date when made. We expressly disclaim any obligation to update or revise any forward-looking statements, whether as a result of new information, future events or otherwise. In addition, forward-looking statements are subject to certain risks and uncertainties that could cause actual results to differ materially from our Company's historical experience and our present expectations or projections. These risks and uncertainties include, but are not limited to, those described in Part I, "Item 1A. Risk Factors" and Part II, "Item 7. Management's Discussion and Analysis of Financial Condition and Results of Operations" in our Form 10-K filed with the Securities and Exchange Commission for the fiscal year ended September 27, 2014, and elsewhere in that report and those described from time to time in our future reports filed with the Securities and Exchange Commission.

Page 3: Green Mountain Coffee Roasters CAGNY 2015

GAAP TO NON-GAAP RECONCILIATION

3

In addition to reporting financial results in accordance with generally accepted accounting principles (GAAP), the Company provides non-GAAP operating results that exclude legal and accounting expenses related to the SEC inquiry, and pending securities and stockholder derivative class action litigation; and non-cash acquisition-related items such as amortization of identifiable intangibles, each of which include adjustments to show the tax impact of excluding these items. In each case these amounts are not in accordance with, or an alternative to, GAAP. The Company's management believes that these measures provide investors with transparency by helping illustrate the underlying financial and business trends relating to the Company's results of operations and financial condition and comparability between current and prior periods. Management uses the measures to establish and monitor budgets and operational goals and to evaluate the performance of the Company. Please see the "GAAP to Non-GAAP Reconciliation" table that accompanies this document for a full reconciliation of the Company's GAAP to non-GAAP results.

Page 4: Green Mountain Coffee Roasters CAGNY 2015

AGENDA

4

Power of premiumization

Overview

Power of innovation

Keurig® hot system opportunity

Keurig® cold system launch update

Page 5: Green Mountain Coffee Roasters CAGNY 2015

AGENDA

5

Power of premiumization

Overview

Power of innovation

Keurig® hot system opportunity

Keurig® cold system launch update

Page 6: Green Mountain Coffee Roasters CAGNY 2015

6 *Non-GAAP EPS is a Non-GAAP financial measure. Please see the attached “GAAP to Non-GAAP

Reconciliation” to find a reconciliation of this measure.

*

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Page 8: Green Mountain Coffee Roasters CAGNY 2015

A UNIFIED DIRECTION

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PURPOSE:

MISSION:

VISION:

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A network system effect

A brand accelerator

A premium experience brought into the home

An enabler to understand the demand signal in home

An in-home beverage creation system

KEURIG® IS AN ADVANCED, PERSONAL BEVERAGE SYSTEM

Page 10: Green Mountain Coffee Roasters CAGNY 2015

THE NETWORK EFFECT

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= Keurig Households

Both brands and households representative only. Not actual numbers

WE SELF-GENERATE & BENEFIT FROM IT

Page 11: Green Mountain Coffee Roasters CAGNY 2015

WE SELF-GENERATE & BENEFIT FROM IT

THE NETWORK EFFECT

Source: 2014 Omnibus Survey. * Estimated.

= Keurig Households Both brands and households representative only. Not actual numbers

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BROAD KEURIG BREWED® FAMILY OF BRANDS

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FY 2015 OUTLOOK

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Tax rate 34-35%

Non-GAAP EPS growth mid-single digits

Capital investment $425M to $475M

Negative impact of fx on EPS ($0.15)

Dilutive impact of 2014 Coca-Cola & Lavazza equity transactions

($0.27)

Free cash flow

Revenue growth mid-single to high-single digits

$225M to $325M

Per Keurig guidance given on 2/4/15

Page 14: Green Mountain Coffee Roasters CAGNY 2015

LONG-TERM OUTLOOK

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Per Keurig guidance given on 2/4/15

Non-GAAP EPS growth mid-teens

Revenue growth double digit

Gross margins + 40%

Operating margins + 20%

Page 15: Green Mountain Coffee Roasters CAGNY 2015

DISCIPLINED CAPITAL DEPLOYMENT

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Reinvest in the business to drive top tier growth

Small tuck-in M&A for specific technologies, market distribution and/or brands with disciplined capital deployment

Return cash to shareholders in form of dividends and share repurchases

Page 16: Green Mountain Coffee Roasters CAGNY 2015

FY2012 FY2013 FY2014 FY2015 YTD

Share Repurchase

Dividends

$76M

$188M

$1.2B

$340M

INCREASING CASH RETURN TO SHAREHOLDERS

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• Raised quarterly dividend 15% in FY15 from FY14

• Current annual dividend of $1.15 per share, yield of ~1%

• Returned ~$1.2 billion to shareholders in FY2014

• Returned $340 million to shareholders YTD in FY2015

Note: FY2015 YTD is as of 02/13/2015

Page 17: Green Mountain Coffee Roasters CAGNY 2015

CORE TRENDS THAT WILL DRIVE BEVERAGE SYSTEMS

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FRESHNESS PERSONALIZED

SIMPLE

WELLNESS

SUSTAINABLE

CHOICE/VARIETY

DEMOCRATIZED NATURAL

Page 18: Green Mountain Coffee Roasters CAGNY 2015

LOOKING AHEAD

• Bringing premium experiences into the home through innovative technology

• Single serve capsules/pods will experience growth globally across beverages

• Innovation in technology systems will be driven by personalization & brand choice, fresh, sustainable, simple, 5 sense experiential

• In-home beverage systems will create new opportunities for brand creation, trial and growth

• In-home consumption data will change how we market to consumers

• Online and mobile will be advantaged due to 1:1 relationships

• The home will become an exciting beverage experience center

A global revolution in the beverage industry

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Page 19: Green Mountain Coffee Roasters CAGNY 2015

Successfully introduce Keurig® KOLD™ to North American consumers

Continue to invest in our strong innovation pipeline

Improve growth trajectory in our Keurig® hot system

Begin to set framework for the globalization of the Keurig® system

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OUR PRIORITIES

Page 20: Green Mountain Coffee Roasters CAGNY 2015

AGENDA

20

Power of premiumization

Overview

Power of innovation

Keurig® hot system opportunity

Keurig® cold system launch update

Page 21: Green Mountain Coffee Roasters CAGNY 2015

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Page 22: Green Mountain Coffee Roasters CAGNY 2015

KEURIG® SYSTEM BREWED COFFEE GROWTH

20.4%

6.1% 5.3% 4.5% 4.3% 3.2% 2.7% 1.5%

-0.5% -0.6% -2.0% -3.0%

KeurigSystemBrewedCoffee

EnergyDrinks

BottledWater

Coffee Milk CannedJuice

Non FruitDrinks

SportsDrinks

BottledJuices

CSD AsepticJuices

DrinkMixes

Total U.S. Multi Outlet Dollar % Change vs Year Ago

Leading the beverage category

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Source: IRI Market Advantage Total U.S. Multi Outlet 52wks ending 12/28/14

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SINGLE CUP COFFEE IS PROPELLING COFFEE CATEGORY $ GROWTH While all other segments soften

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4.5%

25.8%

-2.9% -4.3% -9.5%

Total Coffee Single Cup Coffee Instant Coffee Ground Coffee Whole Bean Coffee

Total U.S. Multi Outlet $ Pct Chg vs YAG

Source: IRI Market Advantage Total U.S. Multi Outlet 52wks ending 12/28/14

Page 24: Green Mountain Coffee Roasters CAGNY 2015

$7,062 $7,937 $8,357 $8,731

12%

22%

30%

36%

0%

10%

20%

30%

40%

$-

$2,000

$4,000

$6,000

$8,000

$10,000

2011 2012 2013 2014

Total U.S. Multi Outlet Coffee Dollar Sales (Billions)

Total U.S. Multi Outlet Coffee Dollar Sales (Billions)

Single Cup Coffee Share of Total Coffee

SINGLE CUP SHARE OF COFFEE

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Source: IRI Market Advantage Total U.S. Multi Outlet 52wks ending 12/28/14

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BRANDS ARE BUILT DIFFERENTLY IN THE KEURIG® SYSTEM

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BRANDS ARE BUILT DIFFERENTLY IN HOT Top 5 coffee brands category $ share

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Roast & Ground Coffee Category Keurig System Brewed

A wider variety of brands are built and can grow

64% Top 5

Brands ~28% Same Top 5 Brands

Source: IRI Total US-MULO, latest 52 weeks ending 12.28.14

®

Page 27: Green Mountain Coffee Roasters CAGNY 2015

BRANDS WILL BE BUILT DIFFERENTLY IN COLD Top 5 cold brands category $ share

27 Source: IRI Total US-MULO, latest 52 weeks ending 12.28.14

How will brands evolve in the Keurig® cold system in the future?

CarbonatedBeverages

Sparkling Water RTD Tea Sports Drinks

Page 28: Green Mountain Coffee Roasters CAGNY 2015

AGENDA

28

Power of premiumization

Overview

Power of innovation

Keurig® hot system opportunity

Keurig® cold system launch update

Page 29: Green Mountain Coffee Roasters CAGNY 2015

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Page 30: Green Mountain Coffee Roasters CAGNY 2015

THE KEURIG® BRAND IS POWERFUL

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Supplier of the Year4

• 80% Brand Awareness1

• #1 Coffee maker in category dollar sales for 53 months running2

• Brand of the Year Single Serve Coffee Maker3

1 Sentient Brand Tracking Study. January 2015 2 NPD All Channels 3 2014 Harris Poll EquiTrend® Rankings 2014 4 for 2014 in association with Keurig 2.0 system launch

Page 31: Green Mountain Coffee Roasters CAGNY 2015

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25.2%

6.7% 5.4% 5.3% 4.6% 3.8%

2.6% 2.5% 2.2% 1.5%

Keurig Keurig Keurig Keurig Keurig Keurig Keurig Hamilton Beach Keurig Black & Decker

% of Total Coffee/Espresso Maker by Item in Dollars Share – Q1 FY’15

Source: NPD All Channels Note: Total Coffeemaker category includes all coffeemakers and espresso makers. NPD data does not include all retailers, and is estimated to represent 60-70% of the total market

8 OF THE TOP 10 BREWERS SOLD BY DOLLAR SHARE WERE KEURIG® BREWERS IN THE HOLIDAY

Page 32: Green Mountain Coffee Roasters CAGNY 2015

DISRUPTIVE INNOVATION ADOPTION CYCLE

Early Majority Late Majority

Early Adopters

Innovators Laggards

Early Market

2.5% 13.5% 34% 34% 16%

Keurig’s hot system is still in the early stages of development

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HOW WE’LL CONTINUE TO WIN

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New Technologies Expanded Choice Creative Design

Page 34: Green Mountain Coffee Roasters CAGNY 2015

NEW TECHNOLOGIES: INTRODUCING KEURIG® 2.0 K200

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KEURIG® 2.0 K200 POSITIONING

For users that desire a smaller footprint

Lowest introductory price point for 2.0

Expanded color options

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PORTFOLIO STRATEGY TO REACH OUR TARGET Brewer innovation at every price point

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EXPANDED CHOICE: SIZE VARIETY

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• Launching K-Mug™ pack line on Keurig.com in mid-March

• Launches with 5 varieties and expands to 9 in Fall ‘15

• Expanding K-Carafe™ pack line with 9 additional varieties

• 23 total K-Carafe pack varieties will be available

• In Fall ’15 K-Carafe will expand to partner brands

Page 38: Green Mountain Coffee Roasters CAGNY 2015

EXPANDED CHOICE: BEVERAGE VARIETY

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NEW LOOK ACROSS GREEN MOUNTAIN COFFEE BRAND

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AND ACROSS THE KEURIG® SYSTEM BRANDS

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CREATIVE DESIGN: NEW MERCHANDISING

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WE CAN LEAD RETAILERS IN DESIGNING A BETTER AISLE

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$5.99 for 36 months

$7.99 for 36 months

$16.99 for 36 months

EXPLORER ADVENTURER PIONEER

Page 44: Green Mountain Coffee Roasters CAGNY 2015

AGENDA

44

Power of premiumization

Overview

Power of innovation

Keurig® hot system opportunity

Keurig® cold system launch update

Page 45: Green Mountain Coffee Roasters CAGNY 2015

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Page 46: Green Mountain Coffee Roasters CAGNY 2015

46 CONFIDENTIAL: FOR INTERNAL USE ONLY

APPLIANCE, BEVERAGE, POD AND PROCESS EQUIPMENT

Page 47: Green Mountain Coffee Roasters CAGNY 2015

VERTICAL-HORIZONTAL SYSTEM INTEGRATION Balanced and linked technology capabilities across the Keurig system

Concepts & Interactions

Design

Development

Assembly Fabrication

Quality Assurance

Appliance Beverage Pod Process

Equipment

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Page 48: Green Mountain Coffee Roasters CAGNY 2015

KEURIG GREEN MOUNTAIN BEVERAGE R&D

Our Beverage Innovation Center • Start-up in 2013 • Part of our Vermont infrastructure • Complements our Boston campus

State-of-the-Art Beverage Science Capabilities • Product development & culinary labs • Sensory testing facility • Hot & cold process pilot plants • Analytical & microbiology labs • Package design & distribution testing • Siemens product lifecycle management system

Home of our coffee heritage and birthplace of our Keurig cold technology

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Deep in the Green Mountains near Stowe, Vermont

Page 49: Green Mountain Coffee Roasters CAGNY 2015

BEVERAGE R&D SENIOR LEADERSHIP Combined 350+ years of beverage and CPG experience, incl. from the following companies

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OUR BEVERAGE INNOVATION TEAM

125 Scientists, Engineers and Technicians Areas of Expertise

• Coffee, Culinary & Food Science • Beverage Formulation & Processing • Chemical & Mechanical Engineering • Packaging Science • Chemistry & Material Science • Sensory & Nutrition Science • Microbiology & Analytical Chemistry

Culture of innovation = talent x environment x process

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Practicing Innovation Through Collaboration

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OUR MANDATE FOR WINNING BEVERAGES

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FRESHNESS PERSONALIZED

SIMPLE

WELLNESS

SUSTAINABLE

CHOICE/VARIETY

DEMOCRATIZED NATURAL

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OPENING WORLDS OF BEVERAGES

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Fresh-made, endless variety, new qualities and just-for-you

COLD HOT

Page 53: Green Mountain Coffee Roasters CAGNY 2015

AGENDA

53

Power of premiumization

Overview

Power of innovation

Keurig® hot system opportunity

Keurig® cold system launch update

Page 54: Green Mountain Coffee Roasters CAGNY 2015

How Can The Cold Beverage Category Be Revolutionized…

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COLD BEVERAGES ARE 5X THE SIZE OF HOT BEVERAGES Dollar share by major category in the U.S.

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Coffee 83%

Tea Bags 13%

Hot Cocoa 4%

Carbonated Beverages

36%

Bottled Water 17%

Shelf-Stable Juice 15%

Rfg Bev 13%

Sports & Energy Drinks

11%

RTD Tea/Coffee

4%

All Other 4%

Total Cold Beverage Sales* CY 2014: $50 billion +

Total Hot Beverage Sales CY 2014: $10 billion+

*excluding dairy Source: IRI U.S. Multi Outlet 52wks ending 12/28/14

Page 57: Green Mountain Coffee Roasters CAGNY 2015

COLD PROBLEMS HIDDEN IN PLAIN SIGHT

TEMPERATURE

FRESHNESS FORM FACTOR

INFLUENCES TASTE

CHOICE

SHOPPABILITY CARBONATION

LEVELS

IN HOME STORAGE

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Carbonation with no CO2 canister

Perfect dosing & one touch simplicity

Beverage delivered cold

Vast brand selection

Sustainable

Freshly prepared carbonated, sparkling, and still beverages

Launching Fall 2015

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WILL OFFER BROAD COLD BEVERAGE PORTFOLIO Beloved partner brands – plus new Keurig-owned brands

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Page 61: Green Mountain Coffee Roasters CAGNY 2015

INTRODUCING OUR NEW OWNED BRANDS

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Page 62: Green Mountain Coffee Roasters CAGNY 2015

Successfully introduce Keurig® KOLD™ to North American consumers

Continue to invest in our strong innovation pipeline

Improve growth trajectory in our Keurig® hot system

Begin to set framework for the globalization of the Keurig® system

62

OUR PRIORITIES

Page 63: Green Mountain Coffee Roasters CAGNY 2015

GAAP TO NON-GAAP RECONCILIATION

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Fiscal 2014

Diluted earnings per share $ 3.74

After tax:

Expenses related to SEC inquiry (1) 0.01

Amortization of identifiable intangibles (2) 0.18

Non-GAAP earnings per share $ 3.93

(1) Represents legal and accounting expenses related to the SEC inquiry and pending securities and stockholder derivative class action litigation classified as general and administrative expense. (2) Represents the amortization of intangibles related to the Company's acquisitions classified as general and administrative expense

Page 64: Green Mountain Coffee Roasters CAGNY 2015

THANK YOU

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