greenhouse gas emissions from freight trucks · overview characterize the magnitude of growth in...

Greenhouse Gas Emissions from Freight Trucks

International Emissions Inventory ConferenceMay 16, 2007

John DaviesU.S. EPA

Office of Transportation and Air Quality

Christiano Facanha

ICFI Consulting

Overview

Characterize the magnitude of growth in freight truck GHG emissions, based on data from EPA Inventory of U.S. Greenhouse Gas Emissions and Sinks

Discuss factors affecting the rise in truck GHGs

Implications

Primary Data Source - Inventory of U.S. GHG

Emissions and Sinks

Prepared annually by EPA under United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change (UNFCCC) Coordinated by EPA Office of Atmospheric Programs Includes transportation estimates developed by EPA Office of Transportation and Air Quality Relies extensively on data provided by the Energy Information Administration (EIA) of the U.S. Department of Energy

Accounting for Transportation GHGs in the Inventory

Included in Transportation Sector Estimates• Tailpipe emissions (from use of energy to power vehicles)• HFCs from mobile air conditioners• Natural gas used to power pipelines, but not electricityNot Included• Ozone-depleting substances, which are not counted in national

totals• Agriculture and construction equipment (generally represented in

the industrial sector)• Most lifecycle GHGs• International bunker fuels

• Reported in Inventory • Not included in national GHG totals or transportation estimates

1990-2005Total U.S. GHG Emissions up 16 percent (annualized rate of just over 1 percent)Transportation GHG emissions up 32 percent (annualized rate of 1.87 percent)Transportation accounted for 49 percent of the growth in total U.S. GHG emissions since 1990

2004-2005Total U.S. GHGs up 0.8 percentTransportation GHGs up 1.4 percent

U.S. Greenhouse Gas Emissions by End-Use Economic Sector

U.S. Greenhouse Gas Emissions by Economic Sector

0

500

1,000

1,500

2,000

2,500

1990

1991

1992

1993

1994

1995

1996

1997

1998

1999

2000

2001

2002

2003

2004

2005

IndustryTransportation

Residential

Commercial

Agricultural

0

500

1,000

1,500

2,000

2,500

3,000

1990

1991

1992

1993

1994

1995

1996

1997

1998

1999

2000

2001

2002

2003

2004

2005

Transportation

Industry

Electricity

Agricultural

ResidentialCommercial

Estimates do not include emissions from U.S. Territories

Growth in U.S. GHG Emissions by Economic Sector

Source: Inventory of U.S. Greenhouse Gas Emissions and Sinks, 1990-2005

Growth in U.S. GHG Emissions by Economic Sector

-71.8

488.1

291.0271.2

12.5

-100

0

100

200

300

400

500

600

Industry

Transportation Residential Commercial Agriculture

570.1

-118.1

485.9

29.4 13.6 10.0

-200

-100

0

100

200

300

400

500

600

700

ElectricityGeneration

Industry

Transportation Residential Commercial Agriculture

End-Use Economic Sectors

(Electricity Distributed)

Economic Sectors

(Electricity Reported Separately)


GHGs from the U.S. Transportation Sector

Since most transportation GHGs are in the form of CO2, transportation GHGs correlate closely with energy consumptionHFCs from refrigerantsCH4 and N2O affected by tailpipe control technologies

CO2

95.1%

CH40.1%

N2O1.7% HFCs

3.0%

CO2

95.1%


U.S. Greenhouse Gas Emissions, 2005

Transportation 28%

(2014.0 Tg CO2 Eq)

Other Sectors 72%

(5246.7 Tg CO2 Eq)

Share of Transportation

GHGs

59.5%

7.9%

3.8%

0.8%

Passenger Cars632.9

Light-Duty Trucks566.7

Buses and Motorcycles 17.10

Freight Trucks385.1

Commercial Aircraft 158.1

Other Non-Road 176.2

Refrigerants and Lubricants 77.2

Sources of Transportation

GHGs

19.1%

8.7%

International Bunkers - Air and Marine 95.6 (Official Estimate)

Not Applicable

Transportation Source GHGs Relative to Total U.S. Emissions

Not Applicable

Non-Transportation MobileSource: Inventory of U.S. Greenhouse Gas Emissions and Sinks, 1990-2005

0

500

1000

1500

2000

1990 2005

Tg C

O2 E

q.

Passenger Car Passenger Car

Light-Duty TruckLight-Duty Truck

Freight Trucks

Freight TrucksCommercial Aircraft

Commercial Aircraft

Other*

Other*

Light-Duty Vehicles+227 Tg

Freight Trucks+158 Tg

Commercial Aircraft+22 Tg

Up 23%

Up 69%

Up 16%

*Includes emissions from HFCs (including mobile AC and refrigerated transport), lubricants boats and ships, locomotives, pipelines, general aviation aircraft, military aircraft, motorcycles, buses. HFCs were introduced in the early 1990s as a replacement for CFCs and HCFCs.

Transportation GHG Emissions by Major Source, 1990 and 2005


Change in GHGs from Major Transportation Sources, 1990-2005

-10%

0%

10%

20%

30%

40%

50%

60%

70%

80%

1990 1995 2000 2005

Freight Trucks

Light-Duty Vehicles

Commercial Aircraft

1990-2005Freight Truck GHGs increased 69.4 percent (3.6 percent annualized)2004-2005GHGs increased 4.3 percent

Fuel prices not enough to trigger improvements in fuel economy, operational efficiencies or affect mode shifts


Variables affecting travel activity (Passenger and Freight)

80

90

100

110

120

130

140

150

160

170

1990 1995 2000 2005

1990

Lev

els

= 10

0

Trucking Activity (ton-miles)GDP

Passenger Auto VMT

Conventional wisdom:

Freight movement correlated with GDP

Passenger travel correlated with population growth

Source: BTS Transportation Statistics 2005

GHG Emissions and Activity –Passenger and Freight

-10.0%

0.0%

10.0%

20.0%

30.0%

40.0%

50.0%

60.0%

70.0%

1990 1992 1994 1996 1998 2000 2002 2004-10.0%

0.0%

10.0%

20.0%

30.0%

40.0%

50.0%

60.0%

70.0%

1990 1992 1994 1996 1998 2000 2002 2004

Freight (all sources) Passenger

GHGs

GHGsTon-miles

VMT

Freight movement is increasingly reliant on energy-intensive modes –especially freight trucks


GHG Emissions by Freight Mode, 1990-2005

0

50

100

150

200

250

300

350

400

450

1990 1995 2000 2005

GHG

Em

issi

ons

(Tg

CO2

equi

v.)

Trucking

Water

Rail

Pipeline

Air


Freight Activity by Mode

0

200,000

400,000

600,000

800,000

1,000,000

1,200,000

1,400,000

1,600,000

1,800,000

1990 1992 1994 1996 1998 2000 2002 2004

-40.0%-30.0%-20.0%-10.0%

0.0%10.0%20.0%30.0%40.0%50.0%60.0%70.0%

1990 1992 1994 1996 1998 2000 2002 2004

Percent Change in ton-miles from 1990

Ton-Miles, 1990-2004

Truck ton-miles increased substantially, but…•Growth was less than rail in absolute terms

•Growth rate was comparable to rail and aircraft

Source: BTS Transportation Statistics 2005

Rail

TrucksPipelines

Domestic Waterborne

Aircraft

TrucksAircraft

Pipelines

Domestic Waterborne

Rail

Energy Intensity of Freight Modes in 2004 (BTU / ton-mile)

3,163

325

511

2,388

0 500 1,000 1,500 2,000 2,500 3,000 3,500 4,000 4,500 5,000

Truck

Rail

Air

Waterborne

Pipeline

21,976

Source: PNNL 2004

Change in Energy Efficiency by Mode, 1990 to 2005

-15%

-10%

-5%

0%

5%

10%

15%

20%

25%

30%

35%

Air Rail

Varia

tion

betw

een

1990

and

200

5 (%

)

Air Rail Trucking Pipeline

Tractor trailers became 12 percent less fuel efficient

Calculated from BTS 2005

Mechanical explanations for the decreased fuel efficiency of combination trucks

Not increased vehicle age: the average truck seems to be getting newer (5.4 years in 2002, vs. 6.4 years in 1992Demand for more powerful engines?Implementation of NOX and PM control devices?

Operational factors affecting Trucks’measured energy efficiency

Growth in the number of small shipments(just-in-time)

Increase in the number of “empty miles” traveled (result of globalized trade)Increase in the amount of idling because of congestion in certain urban areas

Impact of Fuel Costs on Truck Fuel Efficiency and Utilization

Fuel prices not enough to trigger improvements in fuel economy, operational efficiencies or affect mode shiftsIn 2003, fuel represented 8 percent of trucking costs

Wages and benefits 46 percent Equipment 27 percent

Has truck fuel efficiency bottomed out?

ThankYou

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