Greening Development:

Rio+ 20 and beyond

Things have changed since the early 1990s

An explosion in purchasing power–

particularly in developing countries

Population: +1.2 billion

GDP: +$5.5 trillion

(+130%)

GDP per capita: +80%

Greater wealth has led to greater consumption…

still dominated by rich countries

0

5

10

15

20

25

30

1992 2009

Co

nst

an

t 2000 $ t

rillio

n

High income countries

Low & middle income

countries

2009

Substantial progress on social indicators, even

if much remains to be done

0

5

10

15

20

25

30

35

40

45

1990 2005 2015

Poverty rate ($1.25/day)

-445 million

people

-453 million people

But 918 million people still

expected to live in poverty

by 2015

Much less progress on the environmental side

50

70

90

110

130

150

170

1992

1993

1994

1995

1996

1997

1998

1999

2000

2001

2002

2003

2004

2005

2006

PM10, country level CO2 emissions

Reduced air pollution from particulates, but

massive increase in GHGs….

Time to rethink our growth paradigm

Y=F (K, L, A, E)

with A=F(…E, Epol)

Trust in our ability to innovate and green at

low cost

EU Nitrates

Directive

EPA SO2

reductions

(Phase 1)

EU

IPPC

Directive

EPA Dinoseb

ban

EPA

phase-out

of leaded

gas

EU

packaging

waste

Directive

EU

regulation

in the

power

sector

Ozone

Depleting

Substances

phase-out

(Harrington et al. 2000), Oosterhuis (2006)

Green growth – a new emphasis within

sustainable development

Green growth – a new emphasis within

sustainable development

Why might

this work now?

A rethinking of current growth paradigm

Fragility and volatility…

Doubts on its ability to deliver from a social and humanitarian point of view

64

36

20

80

And even more so from an environmental point

of view

Rockström et al., Nature 2009

How to make

it happen?

Get the prices right….

necessary, non sufficient…

0

50

100

150

200

250

300

350

Consumption

Subsidies to fossil

fuels

Cost of support

to renewable

energy

billio

n $

Technology transition…

Infrastructure transition— Today’s choices will

lock in lifestyles, energy use, and vulnerability

Infrastructure transition— Today’s choices will

lock in lifestyles, energy use, and vulnerability

Cities are growing fast….

0

1

2

3

4

1950 1970 1990 2010 2030

Billions of people living in urban areas

Urban

Natural resource management transition

Loess plateau- before

Natural resource management transition

Loess plateau- after

Human capital transition

Source: World Development Report 2010 based on UNESCO Institute for Statistics.

Social capital transition

A green growth knowledge platform to focus

our efforts around:

Green Growth

Platform

Innovation

Efficiency

Jobs & Poverty

Economic & Environmental

Risks