greg mcinerny @gregmci [email protected] interpreting and visualising outputs 2020 science
TRANSCRIPT
G r e g M c I n e r n y@ G r e g M c I
w w w . 2 0 2 0 s c i e n c e . n e t / p e o p l e / g r e g - m c i n e r n y
g m c i n e r n y @ h o t m a i l . c o m
I n t e r p r e ti n g a n d v i s u a l i s i n g o u t p u t s
2 0 2 0 S C I E N C E
1 . V i s u a l i s a ti o nDO WE SPEND TOO MUCH TIME EXHIBITING OUR WORK?
E x h i b i t “ W o w, X & Y l o o k s a m a z i n g ,I n e e d t o fi n d o u t m o r e ! ”
D A T A E N C O D I N G D E C O D I N G
E x p l o r e “ I w o n d e r h o w x r e l a t e s t o y ”
E x p l a i n “ X d o e s y ”
X1, Y1, x2, y2 …
G o a l s i n d a t a v i s u a l i s a ti o n
E x h i b i t “ W o w, X & Y l o o k s a m a z i n g ,I n e e d t o fi n d o u t m o r e ! ”
D A T A E N C O D I N G D E C O D I N G
E x p l o r e “ I w o n d e r h o w x r e l a t e s t o y ”
E x p l a i n “ X d o e s y ”
X1, Y1, x2, y2 …
G o a l s i n d a t a v i s u a l i s a ti o n
E l i t h , J . & L e a t h w i c k , J . R . ( 2 0 0 9 ) A n n u a l R e v i e w o f E c o l o g y , E v o l u ti o n a n d S y s t e m a ti c s , 4 0 , 6 7 7 – 6 9 7 .
( 1 ) R e c o d e
( 2 ) H o p e
T h u i l l e r , W . e t a l . ( 2 0 0 5 ) G E B . 1 4 , 3 4 7 – 3 5 7 .
“ w e o b s e r v e d t h a t 8 3 % o f a r ti c l e s s t u d i e s f o c u s e d e x c l u s i v e l y o n m o d e lo u t p u t ( i . e . m a p s ) w i t h o u t p r o v i d i n g r e a d e r s w i t h a n y m e a n s t o c r i ti c a l l y e x a m i n e m o d e l l e d r e l a ti o n s h i p s ”
Y a c k u l i c , C . B . e t a l . ( 2 0 1 2 ) M E E . 3 , 5 4 5 - 5 5 4
( 3 ) S u m m a r i s e
5 , 0 4 1 p i x e l s o fi n f o r m a ti o n
“ t h e r e s u l t s r e v e a l a n i n t r i g u i n g p a tt e r n ”
A r a u j o , M . B . & N e w , M . 2 0 0 7 . T R E E . 2 2 , 4 2 – 4 7 .
I n d i v i d u a l m o d e l s
A v e r a g e m o d e l
H o f , C . e t a l . 2 0 1 1 . N a t u r e 4 8 0 , 5 1 6 – 5 1 9
h tt p : / / w w w . f s . f e d . u s / n e / n e w t o w n _ s q u a r e /p u b l i c a ti o n s / o t h e r _ p u b l i s h e r s / O C R /n e _ 2 0 0 1 _ i v e r s o n 0 0 1 . p d f
? !
( 4 ) C r a m i t i n
E x h i b i t “ W o w, X & Y l o o k s a m a z i n g ,I n e e d t o fi n d o u t m o r e ! ”
D A T A E N C O D I N G D E C O D I N G
E x p l o r e “ I w o n d e r h o w x r e l a t e s t o y ”
E x p l a i n “ X d o e s y ”
X1, Y1, x2, y2 …
E x p l a i n ( 2 ) “ … b e c a u s e o f A & B ,X d o e s y ”?
L e t s t r y ‘ m o d e l v i s u a l i s a ti o n ’ …
h tt p : / / x k c d . c o m / 1 1 3 8 /
2 . I n t e r p r e t a ti o nDO WE RECOGNISEWHY WE DISAGREE?
W h a t a r e t h e s e ?
G e o g r a p h i c d i s t r i b u ti o n
P o t e n ti a l d i s t r i b u ti o n
A b i o ti c e n v . r e s p o n s e
H a b i t a t s u i t a b i l i t y
E n v . / E c o . n i c h e
F u n d . / R e a l n i c h e
C l i m a t e a ffi n i t y
B i o - c l i m a t e e n v e l o p e
M u l ti v a r i a t e e n v . s p a c e
F u n c ti o n a l r e s p o n s e
S p e c i e s ’ E n v . r e s p o n s e
E n v . C o r r e l a t e s
I n t e r p o l a t e dP a tt e r n
S o b e r o n
H u n t l e y
A u s ti nE l i t h
K e a r n e y
F r a n k l i n
T h u i l l e rA r a u j oT h o m a sO ’ H a r a
N o g u e s - B r a v o
P e t e r s o n T h e o r y S t a ti s ti c a l m e t h o d
V a r i a b l e
R e s p o n s e f u n c ti o n
M o d e l t u n i n g
M o d e l s e l e c ti o n
A p p l i c a ti o n
D a t aT e r m i n o l o g y
A u d i e n c e
W h o i s r i g h t ?
Reason(abstract)
idea/concept
Describe(concrete)
model
output
assumption
definition
code/formula
graph
numbers
words
words/algorithm/
formula
data
Encode(concrete)
Understand(abstract)
idea/concept
goals
Deducti ve Reasoning(agreements are c lear)
Reason(abstract)
Describe(concrete)
Encode(concrete)
Understand(abstract)
model
output
code/formula
graph
numbers
data
goals
MAXENT, R, BIOMOD, OPENMODELLER, MODECO, GARP, BIOMAPPER, CANOCO, WINBUGS, OPENBUGS, DOMAIN, SPECIES, HYPERNICHE, HYKL, DISMO… ANN, AQUAMAPS, BIOCLIM, BRT, CSM, CTA, ENFA, ENVELOPE SCORE, ENV DISTANCE, BUGS, GA, GAM, GBM, GLM, GLS, MAHALANOBIS DISTANCE, MARS, MAXENT, MODECO, RANDOM FORESTS, SRE, SVM ...
goals
Reason(abstract)
idea/concept
Describe(concrete)
model
output
assumption
definition
code/formula
graph
numbers
words
words/algorithm/
formula
data
Encode(concrete)
Understand(abstract)
idea/concept
Inducti ve Model l ing(understand the pitf al ls)
1 . V i s u a l i s a ti o nDO WE SPEND TOO MUCH TIME EXHIBITING OUR WORK?
2 . I n t e r p r e t a ti o nDO WE RECOGNISE WHY WE DISAGREE?