gregg waller. our involvement… volunteered to be an test site – installed under atan… ran apr...
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The New Interactive Verification Program at WGRFC
Gregg Waller
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Our Involvement…Volunteered to be an test site – installed under
ATAN…
Ran Apr 2007 national statistics with old verification system
Installed new IVP and re-ran April- achieved comparable results
Provided feedback to developer
Continue to run to provide monthly stats, and gain experience
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What we have learned… OB8.2 IVP Beta Test Site…
New Statistics: Error – Root Mean Square (RMSE), Max Error (MAXERR), Mean Absolute Error (MAE), Mean Error (ME) Categorical – Probability of Detection (POD), Hydrologic False Alarm Rate (HFAR), Traditional False Alarm
Rate (TFAR), Over Forecast Rate (OFR), Under Forecast Rate (UFR), Critical Success Index or Gilbert Score (CSI)
Quantile and Extremum - Minimum, 25% Quantile (QUAN 0.25), Median, 75% Quantile (QUAN 0.75), and Maximum
Lead Time Statistics – Average Lead Time of Detection (AVGLDTM) Sample Size – Statistic Sample Size (NUM SAMPLES)
Ease of Use of existing statistics Better/enhanced GUI
Group manager Graphics
More detail “Customizable”
Can Identify pairs for use in graphic generation Ease of Use
We ran side by side with existing IVP suite…OB8.2 is both easier and quicker for WGRFC
There will be a workshop to train familiarize the verification focal points August 14 th – 16th.
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New Statistics…Error – Root Mean Square (RMSE), Max Error
(MAXERR), Mean Absolute Error (MAE), Mean Error (ME)
Categorical – Probability of Detection (POD), Hydrologic False Alarm Rate (HFAR), Traditional False Alarm Rate (TFAR), Over Forecast Rate (OFR), Under Forecast Rate (UFR), Critical Success Index or Gilbert Score (CSI)
Quantile and Extremum - Minimum, 25% Quantile (QUAN 0.25), Median, 75% Quantile (QUAN 0.75), and Maximum
Lead Time Statistics – Average Lead Time of Detection (AVGLDTM)
Sample Size – Statistic Sample Size (NUM SAMPLES)
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Example…
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Ease of Use and the GUISet Times
Set Lead Times
Set Issuance
Set TS
Select Locations
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Select the Location Manager
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Location Manager
Choose Your LocationChoose Your TSSelect “Choose” ButtonClose“Create Display”
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Graphics…More detail“Customizable”
Can Identify pairs for use in graphic generation
Ease of generation
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Examples…GNLT2 and VICT2
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More on GNLT2 and VICT2
You can identify specific pairs from specific forecasts if needed…
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More Examples
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More Examples
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More to come…There will be a workshop to train familiarize
the verification focal points August 14th – 16th.
Questions or comments.