Climate Structure, Phenology, and Change in Pinot Noir Wine Regions

Gregory V. Jones Dept of Environmental StudiesSouthern Oregon University

ASEV Joint Burgundy-California-Oregon

SymposiumJune 16-17, 2008Portland, Oregon

Gregory V. Jones, PhD

Talk Outline

Pinot Noir Regions, Climates, and Vine PhenologyClimate Change, Viticulture, and WineObserved TrendsProjected TrendsSummary/Conclusions

Gregory V. Jones, PhD

0

50

100

150

200

250

300

350

1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12

Month (NH: Jan-Dec; SH: Jul-Jun)

Gro

win

g D

egre

e-D

ays

(10°

C b

ase)

Tamar Valley 988

Otago 1006

Orange 1128

Salem 1177

Marlborough 1199

McMinnville 1210

Santa Maria 1298

Burgundy 1319

Mornington 1320

Yarra

Valley 1356

Carneros 1379

Santa Rita 1456

Russian River 1468

Growing Degree-Days in Pinot Noir Regions

Unpublished

Gregory V. Jones, PhD

0

200

400

600

800

1000

1200Sa

nta

Rita

Sant

a M

aria

Car

nero

s

Rus

sian

Riv

er

McM

innv

ille

Sale

m

Tam

ar V

alle

y

Mor

ning

ton

Mar

lbor

ough

Yarr

aVa

lley

Ora

nge

Bur

gund

y

Ota

go

Prec

ipita

tion

(mm

)

0

10

20

30

40

50

60

70Annual PrecipitationGrowing Season Precipitation

% G

row

ing

Seas

on to

Ann

ual

% Growing Season to Annual

Precipitation in Pinot Noir Regions

Unpublished

Gregory V. Jones, PhD

Comparison of Pinot Noir PhenologyBurgundy

Apr 18th

(10)

June 14th

(10)

Aug 9th

(8)

Sept 26th

(10)

Willamette

Apr 10th

(12)

June 15th

(10)

Aug 17th

(9)

Oct 1st

(12)

North Coast

Mar 20th

(15)

May 25th

(14)

Aug 4th

(12)

Sept 15th

(13)

Jones, 2005; plus meta-analysis

Gregory V. Jones, PhD

All varieties have inherent climatic thresholds for optimum quality and production characteristics

Pinot Noir exhibits one of the most narrow climatic niches for premium quality production

Jones, 2006

Gregory V. Jones, PhD

All varieties have inherent climatic thresholds for optimum quality and production characteristics

Pinot Noir exhibits one of the most narrow climatic niches for premium quality production

From what we know about today’s Pinot Noir regions, growing season average temperatures range from ~14-16°C, or ~ a 2°C climatic niche

Burgundy

Tamar Valley

Russian River

Jones, 2006

Gregory V. Jones, PhD

Changes in average climate structure and variability

Warmer and longer growing seasons

Warmer dormant periods

Reduced frost damage (in some areas)

Altered ripening profiles

Earlier phenology (plant growth events)

Altered disease/pest timing and severity

Changes in soil fertility and erosion

CO2 fertilization … but wine effects?

Water availability and timing of irrigation (some places drier, some wetter)

Climate Change, Viticulture, and Wine

Gregory V. Jones, PhD

Observed Climate Trends for the Western U.S. 1948-2005 and Burgundy 1945-2005

Variable Willamette Valley

North Coast

Central Coast Burgundy

Growing Season Tavg +1.1°C +0.9°C +0.9°C +1.3°C

Ripening Period Tavg +1.2°C +0.5°C +0.6°C +1.1°C

Growing Degree-Days +215 +171 +160 +165

Precipitation (Ann & GS) NS NS NS NS

Additional trends include –

earlier last spring frosts, later first fall frosts, longer frost-free periods, and increases in the number of days above 35°C during the growing season and ripening period

Jones, 2005; Jones et al, 2005

Gregory V. Jones, PhD

McMinnville GDDTrend ~35 units/decade

R2 = 0.36

0

200

400

600

800

1000

1200

1400

1600

1945 1950 1955 1960 1965 1970 1975 1980 1985 1990 1995 2000 2005 2010

Year

Gro

win

g D

egre

e-D

ays

(10 °

C b

ase)

Observed Degree-Day Changes in McMinnville

Jones, 2005

Gregory V. Jones, PhD

60

80

100

120

140

160

180

200

220

240

260

280

300

1939 1944 1949 1954 1959 1964 1969 1974 1979 1984 1989 1994 1999 2004

Year

Day

of t

he Y

ear

2003

Observed Phenological Changes in Burgundy

Harvest Date – 26 Sept.

Véraison Date – 9 August

Floraison Date – 14 June

Bud Break Date – 18 April

Jones et al, 2005

Gregory V. Jones, PhD

Observed Changes in the Bud Break to Harvest Period in Burgundy

Chabin

and Madelin, 2007

Gregory V. Jones, PhD

Observed Elevational Changes in Burgundy

~ 200 m elevation difference

Chabin

and Madelin, 2007

Gregory V. Jones, PhD

1950-2049 observed and modeled growing season temperature

changes

Trends range from 2.5-3.7°C

Average growing season temperatures

increase 1.8°C between the 1950-

1999 and 2000-2049 50-year periods

Climate Model Predictions

HadCM3

Jones et al, 2005

Gregory V. Jones, PhD

Observed and Projected Average Growing Season Temperatures in Burgundy

Jones et al, 2005

Burgundy Growing Season TavgTrend ~0.26°C/decade (2.6°C overall)

R2 = 0.41

-4.0

-3.0

-2.0

-1.0

0.0

1.0

2.0

3.0

4.0

1945 1955 1965 1975 1985 1995 2005 2015 2025 2035 2045 2055

Year

Gro

win

g Se

ason

Ave

rage

Tem

pera

ture

Ano

mal

y (°

C) f

rom

195

0-19

99 a

vera

ge

Gregory V. Jones, PhD

Burgundy’s past and projected future climate change …Average growing season temperatures from 1955-1980 where on average like the coldest years during 1980-2005Average growing season temperatures in 2005-2030 are projected to be like the warmest of years during 1980-2005Is 2003 an analog of future conditions?

Burgundy

1955-1980

1980-2005

2005-2030

2003

Jones, 2006

Gregory V. Jones, PhD

Pinot Noir has a narrow climatic niche for best suitability, quality, and productionPinot Noir climates today are found at ~14-16°C (~1000-1500 GDD)Warming of ~1.0-1.9°C (~160-220 GDD) has occurred over the last 40-50 years in Pinot Noir regionsGrapevines have responded with earlier phenology of ~5-10 days per 1°C of warming, plus a shortening of the intervals between events

Summary

Gregory V. Jones, PhD

Meta-Analysis: ~1.1-4.5°C warming in wine regions globally by 2050Best estimate ~1.7-2.2°C with plants likely showing an additional 9-22 day shiftWarming of this magnitude would push many existing regions outside of what is considered suitable todayUncertainty issues include:

Climate system sensitivityEmission scenario (already at upper end)Changes in extremes (↑ frost, heat, precipitation, etc)Variability in the climate system (↑↑)

Summary

Gregory V. Jones, PhD

Climates have clearly changed … along with temperature we are seeing more evidence of coherent changes in many aspects of Earth’s systemsWhat is absolutely clear from history is that the viticultural climates of tomorrow will not be like the those of today … terroirs as we know them will changeWe view our social and economic systems as static today, however history shows that change should be expectedThe wine industry has tremendous adaptive capacity, but can not achieve it without agreeing there is an issue and developing clear strategies associated with a portfolio of research, policy, adaptation, and mitigation

Conclusions

Gregory V. Jones, PhD

Jean-Pierre Chabin and Malika Madelin, Université de Bourgogne

Allen Holstein, Argyle Winery

Molly Hodgins, Chehalem

Joel Myers, VineTenders

Glenn McGourty, UC Extension

Zac Robinson, Husch Vineyards

Bob Gibson, Roederer Estate

Mike Trought, Marlborough Wine Research Centre

Andrew Hall, Charles Sturt University

Kevin Bell, Mornington Peninsula Vignerons Association

Acknowledgements

Gregory V. Jones, PhD