group of experts on renewable energy (gere) · pdf file2 the assignment 18.11.2014 baseline...
TRANSCRIPT
1
This project is part of the International Climate Initiative (IKI). The German Federal Ministry for the
Environment, Nature Conservation, Building and Nuclear Safety (BMUB) supports this initiative on the
basis of a decision adopted by the German Bundestag.
Status of Renewable Energy in the ECE Region
Geneva, 18 November 2014
Group of Experts on Renewable Energy
(GERE)
2
The Assignment
Baseline Conditions on Renewable Energies in the ECE Region 18.11.2014
Research of consultants contracted by the German Agency for International
Cooperation (GIZ), producing 2 separate reports:
- Assessment of Activities of Multi- and Bilateral Donors n the Area of Renewable
Energies in the ECE Region (August 2014), and
- Baseline Conditions on Renewable Energies in the ECE region (September 2014)
Input to various
documents prepared /
compiled by UNECE for
Committee on Sustainable
Energy incl. GERE
Assignment supported by the German Federal Ministry for the Environment,
Nature Conservation, Building and Nuclear Safety (BMUB)
Main sources used by consultants include:
- IEA Data Services - Energy Balances of OECD and of Non-OECED countries
- IRENA Renewable Energy Country Profiles
- REN21 Renewables Interactive Map
- REN21, Renewables Global Status Report 2014
- IEA/IRENA Global Renewable Energy Policies and Measures Database IEA & World
Bank, Global Tracking Mechanism report (2010)
- World Bank, Global Tracking Framework report (V.3, 2013)
- Bloomberg New Energy Finance
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The Assignment
Baseline Conditions on Renewable Energies in the ECE Region 18.11.2014
Motivation: The SE4All initiative embodies three objectives to be achieved by
2030:
access to modern energy services for all,
doubling the share of renewable energy uptake, and
doubling the rate of improvement in energy efficiency.
Goal: to provide an overview regarding where the ECE region stands in RE uptake
– the starting point
Observed elements related to renewable energies (RE):
Status / role of RE in energy balances
RE-E, RE-H/C and RE-T installed capacities
RE resource potentials
RE strategic planning documents
RE-related legal and regulatory framework
RE-related targets
RE regulatory policies and support schemes
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Geographic coverage - classification of (56) UNECE member States in the
report
Baseline Conditions on Renewable Energies in the ECE Region 18.11.2014
(1) Northern America (NA) incl. 2 countries, (2) European Union (EU-28) together with the European Free Trade
Association (EFTA-4) and 3 European Microstates (Andorra, Monaco,San Marino), abbreviated as EU.EF.3 - altogether 35
countries, (3) Western Balkans (WB) – 5 countries, (4) Eastern Partnership (EP) – 6 countries, (5) Central Asia (CA) – 5
countries, and (6) Other countries (I.R.T.), actually covering Israel, Russian Federation and Turkey
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Exemplary set of charts for an „observed element“ – e.g. RE in total GFEC (PJ and %) (1)
Baseline Conditions on Renewable Energies in the ECE Region 18.11.2014
-60
-50
-40
-30
-20
-10
0
10
20
30
1
10
100
1,000
10,000
100,000
1,000,000
10,000,000
100,000,000
1,000,000,000
..
2001
2006
2009
2010
2011 ..
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2006
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2011 ..
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2001
2006
2009
2010
2011 ..
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NON-OECD OECD WORLD ECE ECE-NA ECE-EU.EF.3 ECE-WB ECE-EP ECE-CA ECE-I.R.T.
Shar
e o
f R
ES in
GFE
C
[%]
Vo
lum
e o
f R
ES in
GFE
C
[PJ;
loga
ryth
mic
sca
le]
Volumes and shares of RES in GFEC by sub-region (2001, 2006, 2009-2011)
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Exemplary set of charts for an „observed element“ – e.g. RE in total GFEC (PJ and %) (2)
Baseline Conditions on Renewable Energies in the ECE Region 18.11.2014
Volumes and shares of GFEC and RES in GFEC by ECE sub-region in 2011
ECE162,350;
42%
WORLD Total389,299;
100%
74,088;46%
52,214;32%
813;0%
5,078;3%
4,471;3%
25,686;16%
Volume of GFEC [PJ]
ECE-NA
ECE-EU.EF.3
ECE-WB
ECE-EP
ECE-CA
ECE-I.R.T.
ECE13,158;
23%
WORLD Total57,414;100%
5,366;41%
6,009;46%
123;1%
168;1%
185;1% 1,307;
10%
Volume of RES in GFEC [PJ]
ECE-NA
ECE-EU.EF.3
ECE-WB
ECE-EP
ECE-CA
ECE-I.R.T.
7.9
12.6
16.0
3.64.3
5.8
8.9
16.2
0
2
4
6
8
10
12
14
16
18
ECE-NA ECE-EU.EF.3 ECE-WB ECE-EP ECE-CA ECE-I.R.T. ECE WORLD
Share of RES in GFEC [%]
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Exemplary set of charts for an „observed element“ – e.g. RE in total GFEC (PJ) (3)
Baseline Conditions on Renewable Energies in the ECE Region 18.11.2014
Renewable energy sources in GFEC by UNECE Member State, 2011 (PJ)
60.4
3
54.0
2
46.9
3
23.6
7
74.5
8
40.1
5
35.8
5
8.55
4.98
3.82
916.
29
587.
67
581.
82
502.
20
444.
46
419.
82
316.
55
297.
51
293.
18
195.
19
191.
03
175.
70
152.
97
120.
93
99.5
8
96.2
2
90.5
1
79.4
1
70.7
6
63.7
6
62.5
8
48.7
6
40.2
7
40.1
2
33.6
7
31.1
9
23.9
8
23.5
7
4.57
4.43
905.
61
354.
91
46.9
0
4,06
4.43
1,30
1.89
63.3
5
23.7
8
13.1
3
11.5
9
10.6
7
1
10
100
1,000
10,000
US
CA DE
RU IT FR NO SE ES TR AT PL FI GB
RO PT DK CH CZ NL IS BE UA GR
HU RS LV TJ KG BG KZ IL SK BY LT GE
HR SI IE AL UZ EE BA ME
MK AZ AM CY LU MD
MT
TM
ECE average: 253.04 PJ13 MS above, 39 MS below
[PJ]
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Main socio-economic, energy and climate change related indicators
Baseline Conditions on Renewable Energies in the ECE Region 18.11.2014
SN Indicator ECE
average
World
average
ECE region vs
WORLD index
(factor)
NoC 1)
“above /
below” ECE
NoC
“above / below”
WORLD
1 GDP per capita (current US$, 2011) 31,944 10,259 3.11 18 / 34 35 / 17
2 Total Primary Energy Supply (PES) energy
intensity - PES/GDP (MJ/000 US$) 5,679 7,684 0.74 32 / 20 22 / 30
3 Energy self-sufficiency (%) 93.2 2) 100.0 0.93 8 / 44 8 / 44
4 Cost of fuel import as percentage of GDP (%) 4.20 38 / 11 3)
5 Electricity consumption per capita (kWh) 7,736 3,174 2.44 10 / 42 41 / 11
6 Installed electrical capacity per capita (W) 2,085 765 2.72 13 / 39 42 / 10
7 Share in total global emission of CO2 39.45 100.0 0.39
8 Emission of CO2 per capita (tCO2) 9.9 4.5 2.21 10 /42 37 / 15
9 Emission of CO2 per GDP (kg CO2/current US$) 0.311 0.439 0.71 25 / 27 19 / 33
10 Emission of CO2 per total PES (tCO2/TJ) 54.7 57.1 0.96 23 / 29 18 / 34
Notes:
1) NoC - number of UNECE Member States that are “over” or “under” the average value for the ECE region, based on data for 52 countries.
2) The ECE average number is high due to 8 countries, which are net exporters of energy, with the self-sufficiency indicator considerably over 100% (Norway: 694%,
Azerbaijan: 477%, Kazakhstan: 234%, Turkmenistan: 213%, Russian Federation: 180%, Canada: 162% and Denmark: 117%).
3) Based on data for 49 countries.
The ECE region in the context of basic socio-economic, energy and
climate change considerations
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ECE region: 31,944 current US$/cap (18 MS above, 34 MS below)
WORLD: 10,259 current US$/cap (35 MS above , 17 MB below)
Socio-economic circumstances
GDP per capita by UNECE member State (current US$/cap)
Baseline Conditions on Renewable Energies in the ECE Region 18.11.2014
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Energy intensities
Baseline Conditions on Renewable Energies in the ECE Region 18.11.2014
Economic wellbeing provides better
conditions for the promotion of energy
efficiency measures.
Energy is used in a wasteful manner in
lower-income countries.
Low-income countries do not add
sufficient economic value per unit of
consumed energy. Such unfavourable
circumstances represent important
potential for introduction and
implementation of energy efficiency and
RE programmes on a large-scale.
Introducing renewable energy may face
technical limitations beyond the economic
or financial ones that apply in most
countries. At risk of technical challenges
in particular are small countries.
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Electricity use and installed electrical capacities per capita
Baseline Conditions on Renewable Energies in the ECE Region 18.11.2014
• A vast majority of ECE member States demonstrate potential for increased use of electricity per
capita in the future - driven by aspirations for improved quality of life.
• Capacity additions seem reasonable and justified primarily in member States with per capita
installed power generation capacities around and below the global average (765 W/cap).
• This growth potential is an opportunity for renewables-based electric power provided that such
projects are competitive locally with traditional technology.
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Self-sufficiency in PES and electricity generation by ECE sub-region
(2011, 2006, and 2009-2011)
Baseline Conditions on Renewable Energies in the ECE Region 18.11.2014
• The ECE region is well balanced in terms of electricity production and a bit less in terms of PES.
• The most notable oscillations in electricity self-sufficiency in WB (due to specific hydrological
circumstances in 2010-2011)
• The CA and the I.R.T. sub-regions are huge exporters of PES and also of electricity, while the
EU.EF.3 sub-region reaches only 60% self-sufficiency in PES, the lowest within the ECE region.
55
60
65
70
75
80
85
90
95
100
105
110
20
60
100
140
180
220
260
300
340
380
420
460
..
2001
2006
2009
2010
2011 ... ..
2001
2006
2009
2010
2011 ... ..
2001
2006
2009
2010
2011 ... ..
2001
2006
2009
2010
2011 ... ..
2001
2006
2009
2010
2011 ... ..
2001
2006
2009
2010
2011 ... ..
2001
2006
2009
2010
2011 ... ..
2001
2006
2009
2010
2011 ... ..
2001
2006
2009
2010
2011 ... ..
2001
2006
2009
2010
2011 ...
NON-OECD OECD WORLD ECE ECE-NA ECE-EU.EF.3 ECE-WB ECE-EP ECE-CA ECE-I.R.T.
Self-sufficiency ¤ Production of Primary Energy / Total Primary Energy Supply [%] Self-sufficiency ¤ Electricity Generation / Electricity Consumption [%]
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Renewable energy resource potentials
Baseline Conditions on Renewable Energies in the ECE Region 18.11.2014
38
3
9
20
4
0
22
0
18
9
34
0
39
0
32
65
1
29
0
15
24
6
0
21
0
8
5
8
14
0
11
0
3
0
8
22
12
0
5
10
15
20
25
30
35
40
45
High High toMedium
Medium Medium toLow
Low Unknown Not applicable
Wind
Solar
Hydro
Biomass
Geothermal
Ocean
• The ECE region is a highly promising region to deploy nearly any kind of RE technologies.
• Further research and field surveys (biomass), measurements (hydro, wind) and exploratory drilling
(geothermal) is required to permanently improve the renewable energy resource assessment.
• Feasibility studies are required, based on the application of state-of-art RE technologies and updated
data on costs in order to refresh the assessment of technical and economic potentials.
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Role of UNECE member States in global installed capacities by RE-technology
(status as of end-2013)
Baseline Conditions on Renewable Energies in the ECE Region 18.11.2014
Wind power: 8 ECE member States are among the top 10 countries of the World
Solar PV: 7 ECE member States among the top 10
Concentrated solar thermal power (CSP): 2 ECE member States among the top 10
Hydropower: 3 ECE Member States among the top 6
Geothermal power: 2 ECE Member States among the top 6
Solar water heating collectors: 7 ECE Member States among the top 12
Biofuels production: 8 ECE Member States among the top 16
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Renewable energy strategic planning documents
Baseline Conditions on Renewable Energies in the ECE Region 18.11.2014
National energy strategies; 32 countries (62%) have adopted long-term national “strategies” for the
energy sector as a whole. Together with „programmes” or “policies” as called in some countries, the total
number is 35 countries (67%) altogether. Long-term energy strategies have been passed in all countries
of the ECE-WB sub-region and in most ECE-AP and ECE-CA countries
Preparation of separate documents on RE strategies is not widely practiced; in 7 countries (13%).
Strategic plans for RE sub-sectors (e.g. wind, solar, hydro etc.); in 16 countries (31%).
Specific RE sub-sector programmes and investment plans; in 22 countries (42%).
National Renewable Energy Action Plans (NREAP) are the major documents that determine the long-
term outlook for RE development, in most cases, by 2020. In line with the last RES Directive 2009/28/EC,
they are mandatory to all EU MSs (28) and since 2012, also to the Contracting Parties to Energy
Community Treaty (8). The available data indicate that as many as 39 countries (75%) have NREAPs or
similar.
Without sound RE-policy framework in place remains 3 countries.
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RE-related targets
Baseline Conditions on Renewable Energies in the ECE Region 18.11.2014
Share of energy from renewable sources in gross final energy consumption (GFEC)
Share of energy from renewable sources in energy consumption in transport
Share of renewable energy in Final Energy Consumption (FEC)
Share of renewable energy in total Primary Energy Supply (PES)
Share of electricity generated from RE-sources (RES-E) in total electricity generated
Share of renewable energy in energy for heating and cooling
Type of most frequently used targets
17
RE-related targets
Baseline Conditions on Renewable Energies in the ECE Region 18.11.2014
Horizontal cross-sectoral (gross) final energy consumption related targets are most
popular targets that have been introduced in 36 countries (69%), followed by:
Consumption-related sectoral targets for renewable energy in transport are in 35
countries (67%);
Production-related sectoral targets for the power sector, either in terms of installed
power generation capacities (24 countries – 46%) or electricity generation or consumption
(29 countries – 56%;
Production-related sectoral targets for heating/cooling, either in terms of capacity or
energy, are present in 18 countries (35%);
Horizontal cross-sectoral primary energy related targets have not been introduced in
more than 12 countries (23%).
Statistics on used targets
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RE regulatory policies and support schemes (1)
Baseline Conditions on Renewable Energies in the ECE Region 18.11.2014
0%
25%
50%
75%
100%
ECE ECE-NA ECE-EU.EF.3 ECE-I.R.T. ECE-EP ECE-CA ECE-WB
The number of active policy measures in force might serve well for focusing the discussion on
the possible UN/ECE efforts.
4.7 9.7 5.5 4.3 2.0 1.8 3.0 ECE NA EU.EF.3 I.R.T. EP CA WB
Renewable energy policy support measures in force
average number of policy measures in the field of renewables support
19 Baseline Conditions on Renewable Energies in the ECE Region 18.11.2014
The IEA/IRENA database
deals with information of
tremendous value to both
policy and industry decision-
makers.
UN/ECE could try to facilitate
active participation of its
member States in the
IEA/IRENA database.
0%
25%
50%
75%
100%
ECE ECE-NA ECE-EU.EF.3 ECE-I.R.T. ECE-EP ECE-CA ECE-WB
1 - Economic Instruments
2 - Information and Education
3 - Policy Support
4 - Regulatory Instruments
5 - Research, Development and Deployment(RD&D)6 - Voluntary Approaches
Data gaps identification
Countries of ECE region with no data available in the IEA/IRENA database (12 of 56) by groups:
ECE-NA (0 of 2)
ECE-EU.EF.3 (4 of 35):AndorraLiechtensteinMonacoSan Marino
ECE-I.R.T. (0 of 3)
ECE-EP (2 of 6):GeorgiaRepublic of Moldova
ECE-CA (5 of 5):KazakhstanKyrgyzstanTajikistanTurkmenistanUzbekistan
ECE-WB (1 of 5):The Former Yugoslav Republic of Macedonia
ECE NA EU.EF.3 I.R.T. EP CA WB
Share of countries having at least one type of renewable
energy policy and measure (6 categories) in force (IEA/IRENA
database)
RE regulatory policies and support schemes (2)
12 MS
4 MS
2 MS
5 MS
1 MS
20
Major inconsistencies
Baseline Conditions on Renewable Energies in the ECE Region 18.11.2014
REN21: By comparing the information provided within the Renewables Global Status Report
(GSR) and the Renewables Interactive Map (MAP), significant inconsistencies have been
identified:
• of nearly 300 policies implementations stated within GSR and MAP, only 82% are
coherently referred to in both sources;
• while 33 are referred to by the MAP exclusively and 5 by the GSR only.
REN21 vs IEA/IRENA: Cross-referencing information provided by REN21 (GSR and MAP)
and IEA/IRENA Global Renewable Energy Policies and Measures Database on the 4
categories that appear to be perfectly overlapping (Feed-in tariffs, Capital subsidy, Public
investment, Tradable RECs), substantial discrepancies appear:
• of 140 statements by either of the REN21 services 47 are disputed, and
• 10 more identified as missing in IEA/IRENA database.
This means that either IEA/IRENA or REN21 or both are incomplete and/or partially wrong.
21
Major data gaps
Baseline Conditions on Renewable Energies in the ECE Region 18.11.2014
The most pressing issue is lack of complete geographical coverage.
49 ECE member States individually and further 6 on pair-by-pair within IEA energy balance data
services
44 ECE member States within IEA/IRENA database
33 ECE member States within RES-Legal Database
The various approaches of individual information sources leads to limited comparability of
information as the data structures are not easily aligned (e.g. only 4 of the 34 IEA/IRENA policy
types can be aligned with any of the 12 RES support policies of REN21)
It appears that nobody collects information on validity of non-existence of the reference. There is no
information on the information not being there (whether such status is being claimed or just not
known)
Further consolidation of information between various data sources and improvement of
reliability, accuracy and geographical coverage of provided information seems one of the
main challenges.
Could and how UN/ECE could contribute?
22 Baseline Conditions on Renewable Energies in the ECE Region 18.11.2014
Thank you for your attention
Marko Košir Tomaž Lajovic
Lead Consultant RES Legal and Regulatory Expert
[email protected] [email protected]
+386 (0)31 381115 +386 (0)41 735711