growing a city - ucsb economic forecast project · 2021. 1. 30. · population population births...
TRANSCRIPT
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growing a city
peter rupertprofessor
department of economics, ucsbdirector, ucsb economic forecast project
allan hancock collegemay 7, 2019
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roadmap for today
global and national outlook
recent local trends
where do we go from here?
major issues (good and bad)
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global outlook
kinda sucks
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global outlookkinda sucks
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US
doesn’t suck
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USdoesn’t suck
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strong US economy
income, profits, stocks...all up
strongest labor market since?
financially more robust
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Per
cent
0
1
2
3
4
5
3.3% 3.3%
1%
0.4%
1.5%
2.3%
1.9%1.8% 1.8%
3%2.8%
2.3% 2.2%
4.2%
3.4%
2.2%
3.2%
2015
2016
2017
2018
2019
Economic Forecast Project Source: BEA
Real GDP
quarterly change at an annual rateyear−over−year change
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1999 2002 2005 2008 2011 2014 2017
0.6
0.8
1.0
1.2
1.4
1.6
1.8
Economic Forecast Project Source: BEA
ProfitsFixed Investment
Non−residential Fixed Investment and Corporate Profits
Inde
x, Q
2 20
09=
1
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2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019
1000
1500
2000
2500
3000
Economic Forecast Project Source: BLS
S&P 500Index
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1947 1955 1965 1975 1985 1995 2005 2015
0.8
0.9
1.0
1.1
1.2
Economic Forecast Project Source: Federal Reserve
Net Worth, Nonfinancial Corporate BusinessRatio to GDP
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1946 1955 1965 1975 1985 1995 2005 2015
0.2
0.4
0.6
0.8
1.0
1.2
1.4
Economic Forecast Project Source: Federal Reserve
Household LeverageLiabilities to Disposable Income
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1947 1955 1965 1975 1985 1995 2005 2015
3.5
4.0
4.5
5.0
Economic Forecast Project Source: Federal Reserve
Household Net Worth (Assets−Liabilities)Ratio to GDP
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A M J J A S O N D J F M A
−100
0
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200
300
400
●
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Economic Forecast Project Source: BLS
Net Payroll Employment ChangeThousands, SA
first estimatesecond estimatefinal
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A M J J A S O N D J F M A
−100
0
100
200
300
400
●
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●
●
Economic Forecast Project Source: BLS
Net Payroll Employment ChangeThousands, SA
first estimatesecond estimatefinal
what did the forecasters forecast?
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1948 1955 1965 1975 1985 1995 2005 2015
4
6
8
10
Economic Forecast Project Source: BLS
Unemployment RatePercent, SA
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vacancies and unemployment
2001 2004 2007 2010 2013 2016 2019
1000
2000
3000
4000
5000
Midwest
2001 2004 2007 2010 2013 2016 2019
1000
2000
3000
4000
5000
South
2001 2004 2007 2010 2013 2016 2019
1000
2000
3000
4000
5000
Northeast
2001 2004 2007 2010 2013 2016 2019
1000
2000
3000
4000
5000
West
Unemployed Persons (000's) Vacancies, (000's)
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2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2018
0
1
2
3
AHECPI
Inflation and Average Hourly EarningsPercent change from a year ago
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growing a city
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growing a citywhat is a city?
peoplehousingjobsschoolsstoresparks and rechealthsafety
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growing a citywhat is a city?
peoplehousingjobsschoolsstoresparks and rechealthsafety
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growing a city
growing a city entails choices
agricultural land vs. residential
manufacturing vs. services
high density/low income housing
oil? cannabis? wine tasting?
start by examining the data
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growing a city
growing a city entails choices
agricultural land vs. residential
manufacturing vs. services
high density/low income housing
oil? cannabis? wine tasting?
start by examining the data
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growing a citypopulation dynamics
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Population and Components of Change: Santa Barbara County
Population Population Births Deaths Natural Net PopulationJuly 1 Change Increase Migration Growth Rate
2005 411,683 493 6,301 2,936 3,365 -2,872 0.122006 412,853 1,170 6,175 2,860 3,315 -2,145 0.282007 416,648 3,795 6,252 2,708 3,544 251 0.922008 419,970 3,322 6,327 2,898 3,429 -107 0.802009 422,423 2,453 6,180 2,876 3,304 -851 0.582010 423,567 1,144 5,970 2,879 3,091 -1,223 0.272011 425,354 1,787 5,746 2,881 2,865 -1,078 0.422012 430,318 4,964 5,638 2,888 2,750 2,214 1.172013 435,329 5,011 5,701 2,990 2,711 2,300 1.162014 440,090 4,761 5,758 2,999 2,759 2,002 1.092015 444,491 4,401 5,809 3,016 2,793 1,608 1.002016 447,309 2,818 5,590 3,140 2,450 368 0.632017 450,138 2,907 5,463 3,256 2,207 700 0.652018 453,288 3,150 5,544 3,363 2,181 969 0.68Average per Year 3,071 5,845 2,959 2,887 227 0.73
Source: CA Department of Finance
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Population Distribution1-year 5-year
2017 2018 Growth Rate Growth Rate
Buellton 5,098 5,291 3.8% 8.7%Carpinteria 13,697 13,704 0.1% 4.5%Goleta 31,622 31,949 1.0% 6.5%Guadalupe 7,341 7,604 3.6% 7.0%Lompoc 43,881 43,599 -0.6% 1.9%Santa Barbara 94,244 94,807 0.6% 5.6%Santa Maria 107,978 108,470 0.5% 8.0%Solvang 5,653 5,771 2.1% 8.9%Unincorp Area 140,511 142,262 1.2% 4.4%
SB County 450,025 453,457 0.8% 5.5%
Tri-Counties 1,585,145 1,592,631 0.5% 3.5%Source: CA Department of Finance
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Population and Housing: Santa Barbara County
2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018
Population (Jan. 1) 428,194 433,073 438,512 442,987 447,073 450,025 453,457% change 0.89 1.14 1.26 1.02 0.92 0.66 0.76
Total Housing Units 153,689 154,170 154,733 155,353 156,520 157,578 158,622% change 0.28 0.31 0.37 0.40 0.75 0.68 0.66
Vacancy Rate 6.70 6.60 6.50 6.20 6.00 6.10 6.20
Source: CA Department of Finance*All values are January 1 estimates.
population is growing faster than housing
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growing a cityemployment, output and income
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how we work
where are the jobs?
show me the money
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how we work
0%5%
10%15%20%
Source: CA Employment Development Department, Current Employment Survey (CES)
Percentage of Total Employment, by Industry Santa Barbara County
Dec '98 Dec '08 Dec '18
share of employment has been fairly constant
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how we work
$0
$50,000
$100,000
$150,000
0
2,000
4,000
6,000
8,000
Employment Mean Annual Wage
Source: CA Employment Development Department, Occupational Employment Statistics (OES)
Occupations by Highest Employment Santa Barbara County, 2018 Q1
largest employment in low wage jobs
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what we produce
Government
Financial Activities
Prof. & Bus. ServicesWholesale Trade
Educ. & Health Services
Trans., Ware. & Util.
Goods Producing
Information
Total Farm
Leisure & Hospitality
Retail Trade
Other Services15.8
13.7
11.4
9.38.7
7.77.3
7 6.1
6
4.9 2.20
10
20
0 25 50 75 100Percent of Total Real GDP, 2017
2016
−20
17 G
row
th R
ate
(%)
Real Gross Domestic Product (GDP) by Industry Santa Barbara County
no gdp growth in our largest sectors
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understand tradeoffs!
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growing a citymajor issue i: land use
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agriculture and commercial have grown since 2014
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affordability
effects of high housing prices
higher density?
deter employment growth?
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0
20
40
Ker
n (
Bak
ersf
ield
)
Kin
gs
County
Tula
re
San
Ber
nar
din
o
Mer
ced
Mad
era
Fre
sno
Sta
nis
laus
Pla
cer
County
Sola
no
Sac
ram
ento
San
Joaq
uin
Riv
ersi
de
County
Contr
a−C
ost
a
Ven
tura
San
Die
go
Los
Angel
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Nap
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San
Luis
Obis
po
Sonom
a
Monte
rey
Ora
nge
County
Ala
med
a
Mar
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San
ta B
arbar
a
San
ta C
ruz
San
ta C
lara
San
Mat
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San
Fra
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sco
CA Average: 29%
US Average: 56%
Affordability 2017Q4
2017...not so affordable
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2018...above the CA average!
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land use
how has land use changed?
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0
250000
500000
750000
20172012200720021997Year
Acr
es
Type
Non−Cropland Acres
Cropland, Not Harvested
Cropland, Harvested
Santa Barbara CountyAgricultural Land Usage
Source:USDA
33% of farms have a female principal operator14% of principals under the age of 45
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growing a citymajor issue ii: competing uses
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0
3000
6000
9000
20172012200720021997Year
Cou
ntSanta Barbara CountySheep Inventories
Source:USDA
where did the sheep go?
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major issue ii
growth in a new industry: cannabis
issue: difficult to bank
business permitting
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legislation
The Secure and Fair Enforcement (SAFE) BankingAct of 2019 would solve a key logistical and publicsafety problem in states that have legalizedmedicinal or recreational cannabis.
Currently, cannabis businesses operating understate laws that have legalized medicinal orrecreational cannabis have been mostly deniedaccess to the banking system because banks thatprovide them services can be prosecuted underfederal law. (Sens. Merkely D-OR, Gardner R-CO)
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comparative advantage
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large differences in salaries
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growing a citymajor issue iii: minimum wages
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minimum wages
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minimum wages
effect on low skill workers
automation
better alternative
earned income tax credit
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growing a citymajor issue iv: opportunity zones
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opportunity zones
if people want to give you money
take it!
sb county has 7
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growing a citymajor issue v: more tariffs
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tariffs
did this last year
new threat: from 10% to 25%
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final thoughts
where do we go from here?
understand tradeoffs
make informed decisions
let your local politicians know
will the recovery end soon?
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growing a citythank you