growth and inflation prospects and monetary policy › english › monetarypolicy... · inflation...

Growth and Inflation Prospects

and Monetary Policy

Monetary Policy Report June 2016 1

1. Growth and Inflation Prospects and Monetary Policy

The Thai economy is projected to grow in 2016 at the same rate as

estimated in the previous Monetary Policy Report at 3.1 percent. Exports remain

constrained by both weak economic growth among trading partners and structural

changes in global trade. However, the adverse impact is offset by expansion in

exports of services, thanks to the increase in the number of foreign tourists, and

by private consumption that is supported by government spending and stimulus

measures as well as improved income growth among agricultural households

following rising agricultural commodity prices. For 2017, growth is slightly revised

down from the previous estimate to 3.2 percent on account of a slowdown in

merchandise exports, while domestic demand and tourism will continue to drive

growth going forward.

Headline and core inflation this year is expected to remain close to the

previous assessment. Cost-push inflationary pressure is largely unchanged from

the previous projection, as upward adjustments in domestic oil prices are offset

by lower electricity prices. Demand-pull inflationary pressure is broadly

unchanged, which is in line with the growth prospect that is mostly similar to the

previous projection. For 2017, headline inflation is expected to pick up gradually

in tandem with the gradual rise in global oil prices. Core inflation is also projected

to pick up, albeit at a slightly slower pace compared with the previous assessment,

in tandem with the economy that will grow at a slightly more moderate pace than

expected.

The Committee kept the policy interest rate unchanged at the May and

June 2016 meetings. According to the Committee’s assessment, the Thai

economy continues to recover despite downside risks on both the domestic and

external fronts. Inflation will return to the lower bound of the inflation target within

the latter half of this year. Meanwhile, monetary conditions remain accommodative

and conducive to the economic recovery, as reflected in the real interest rates and

bond yields that remain at low levels. The Committee emphasizes the need to

preserve policy space as cushion for future risks that have the potential to

negatively affect the ongoing recovery. The Committee will continue to monitor

risks to financial stability, particularly the search-for-yield behavior and

underpricing of risks that may arise in the prolonged low interest rate environment.


1.1 Growth and inflation prospects

The Committee maintains the GDP growth

forecast for 2016 at 3.1 percent (Table 1.1). Key

growth drivers consist of (1) higher-than-expected

exports of services that expand on the back of

strong growth in the tourism sector and (2)

continued government expenditure, underpinned

by effective disbursement as well as additional

stimulus measures, that helps bolster private-sector

confidence and spending. The role of government

expenditure is critically important especially when

merchandise exports have yet to recover, given the

sluggish growth in trading partners’ economies,

especially in Asia, and changes in the global trade

structure.

Private consumption is projected to expand

at a rate close to the previous assessment. Tourism

receipts and incomes of agricultural households,

the latter of which grow faster than expected due to

rising agricultural commodity prices, help offset

partly the decline in the incomes of households

that involve with export-oriented manufacturing.

Meanwhile, private investment is projected to

improve relative to the previous forecast due mainly

to the outlays for construction in connection with

government projects. However, outlays for machinery

and equipment are expected to remain at low levels

consistent with weak merchandise exports.

For 2017, domestic demand will continue

to be the main growth driver, although its

momentum is estimated to soften slightly from the

previous projection. This is a result of (1) subdued

merchandise exports held down in part by

structural problems in global trade and (2) the

waning of the stimulus effects of government

measures on private-sector expenditure. The

Table 1.1 Forecast summary

Percent 2015* 2016 2017

GDP growth 2.8 3.1 3.2

(3.1) (3.3)

Headline inflation -0.9 0.6 2.2

(0.6) (2.2)

Core inflation 1.1 0.8 1.0

(0.8) (1.1)

Note: *Outturn

() March 2016 MPR

Sources: Office of National Economic and Social Development Board,

Ministry of Commerce; calculations by Bank of Thailand


Committee thus revises down the growth

projection next year to 3.2 percent, down from

3.3 percent (Table 1.1). This is consistent with

the output gap that is projected to widen

somewhat in 2017 compared to the previous

estimate (Chart 1.1).

Consistent with the growth projection

above, the forecast of core inflation for 2016 is

kept unchanged at 0.8 percent, while the 2017

projection is revised down to 1.0 percent from

1.1 percent. In addition, this year’s cost-push

inflationary pressure is estimated to be mostly

unchanged from the previous projection, since

increase in domestic oil prices in tandem with an

upward revision of global crude prices is offset by

lower electricity prices. In sum, the Committee

keeps unchanged the projection for headline

inflation for 2016 at 0.6 percent, consistent with

core inflation and cost-push inflation that are

broadly unchanged this year, and maintains the

headline inflation projection for 2017 at 2.2

percent, as the effect of the rising cost-push

inflationary pressure is estimated to be offset

by the declining demand-pull inflationary

pressure. (Table 1.1).

The Committee has incorporated key

economic developments into the growth and

inflation forecasts as summarized below.

(1) Trading partners’ economies are

likely to grow at a slower pace than previously

assessed (Table 1.2).

The Committee revises down the projection

of trading partners’ GDP growth for 2016, as Asian

economies are expected to slow down further than

previously anticipated. This is due to both the

changes in the global trade structure that will

negatively affect intra-regional trade and the slower-

than-expected recovery of advanced economies.

Chart 1.1 Output gap

Percent

-4

-2

0

2

4

Q1

2013

Q1

2014

Q1

2015

Q1

2016

Q1

2017

Q1

2018

MPR Mar 16 forecast

MPR Jun 16 forecast

Table 1.2 Growth assumptions for Thailand’s trading partners

Percent

(%YoY)

Weight

(%)2015

2016 2017

Mar 16 Jun 16 Mar 16 Jun 16

United States 14.9 2.4 2.2 1.9 2.4 2.3

Euro area 10.0 1.6 1.4 1.7 1.6 1.6

Japan 13.6 0.6 0.8 0.6 0.4 1.0

China 15.7 6.9 6.5 6.5 6.4 6.4

Asia (ex Japan and China)* 37.4 3.5 3.5 3.2 3.9 3.7

Total** 100 3.2 3.1 3.0 3.3 3.3

Note: * Weighted by each trading partner’s share of Thailand’s total exports

in 2014, namely Singapore (6.5%), Hong Kong (7.9%), Malaysia

(8%), Taiwan (2.5%), Indonesia (5.9%), Korea (2.8%), and

the Phillippines (3.7%)

** Weighted by each trading partner’s share of Thailand’s total exports

as of 2014


For 2017, trading partners’ GDP growth projection

remains unchanged. While the US and Asian

economies are expected to record weaker growth,

it is anticipated that Japan will expand faster than

previously projected, given that the increase in the

sales tax, initially scheduled for 2017, has now

been pushed back to 2019. Meanwhile, growth in

the euro area and China is expected to slow down

in line with the previous assessment.

In addition to weaker growth of trading

partners, changes in the global trade structure,

whereby import dependencies have reduced in

many economies, contribute to the continuous

decline in both the global trade volume and

Emerging Asia’s export volume in particular

(Chart 1.2). Such development is one of the key

factors that leads to greater contraction in

Thailand’s merchandise export volume than

previously anticipated. Consequently, Thailand’s

export value is estimated to decline despite an

upward revision of export prices thanks to higher-

than-expected commodity and crude oil prices. The

Committee revised down the export value

projection to a contraction of 2.5 percent in

2016, larger than the 2.0 percent decline

according to the previous assessment. The

export value for 2017 is projected to remain

unchanged from the prior year’s level, close to

the 0.1 percent growth estimated previously.

Given the sluggish global economic

recovery, monetary policy in major economies is

likely to remain accommodative. The Federal

Reserve has maintained an accommodative

monetary policy stance for longer than the

Committee previously expected. Most recently, the

federal funds rate was kept on hold at the latest

Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meeting

in June, following the release of May employment

Chart 1 2 Global trade volume and Emerging Asia’s export volume

Source: Netherlands Bureau for Economics, calculation by Bank of Thailand

95

100

105

110

115

120

Jan

2013

Jul

2013

Jan

2014

Jul

2014

Jan

2015

Jul

2015

Jan

2016

Global trade volume EM Asia export volume

Index (3-month moving average, seasonally adjusted; January 2013 = 100)


figures that were below market expectations, and

also in anticipation of the results of the United

Kingdom (UK) European Union (EU) membership

referendum that could spark volatility in global

financial markets. The Committee expects that the

FOMC is likely to wait for clearer signs of recovery

in the US labor market before deciding on a rate

hike in the latter half of this year and continuing with

another rate hike next year. Meanwhile, the Bank

of Japan has continued with monetary easing

through quantitative and qualitative easing with the

negative interest rate policy. Looking ahead,

monetary policy divergence among major

advanced economies will continue to be an

important factor contributing to volatilities in capital

flows and exchange rates going forward.

The Committee expects that trading

partners’ economies will be faced with greater

downside risks. One of these risks is China’s

financial stability concerns which stem from

elevated corporate debt that potentially results in

financing difficulties for businesses and state-

owned enterprises, thereby increasing default risks

and costs of funds. Additional risks that warrant

close monitoring are (1) uncertainties in monetary

policy of major economies and (2) the UK’s exit

from the EU (Brexit). These risks could add to

volatility in global financial markets and could have

greater economic impacts than expected.

(2) Crude oil prices in the global market,

which were higher than previously expected in

the second quarter of 2016, are projected to rise

over the forecast horizon (Chart 1.3).

The Committee revises up the projection for

Dubai crude price throughout the forecast horizon.

The oil price is expected to average at 43.1 US

dollars per barrel in 2016, up from the previous

estimate of 37.3 US dollars per barrel. This upward

0

20

40

60

80

100

120

140

Q1

2014

Q1

2015

Q1

2016

Q1

2017

Q1

2018

Chart 1.3 Assumptions on Dubai oil price

Mar 16 Jun 16

U.S. dollars per barrel


revision is due to the more-than-expected increase

in oil prices in the second quarter of this year as a

result of supply-side factors. Oil production in many

OPEC countries has slowed, putting upward

pressure on prices both recently and going forward.

In particular, lingering political tensions in Nigeria

and financial problems in Venezuela are major

factors behind the supply shortage. Meanwhile,

production in non-OPEC countries remains low on

account of US producers having withdrawn from

exploration and drilling of shale oil. Looking ahead,

the Committee thus expects that the global oil

market will enter into new equilibrium more quickly,

which will prompt US shale oil producers to resume

production once prices exceed the break-even

point, and that the increase in oil prices is expected

to decelerate around the end of the forecast horizon.

The more-than-expected increase in global

oil prices will result in higher domestic retail oil

prices compared with the previous projection.

However, domestic energy prices as a whole are

not expected to significantly increase due to the

decline in electricity prices1/ that will offset this

year’s higher oil prices.

Prices of agricultural products have risen

alongside crude oil prices, helping support farm

income growth and sustain household consumption.

Moreover, higher crude oil and other commodity

prices lead to increasing export prices, helping

1/ The Energy Regulatory Commission (ERC) approved the

decrease of the float time (Ft) surcharge in May through

to August 2016 by 28.49 satang per unit. This resolution

was based on the cost of natural gas used to fuel power

generation that fell over the previous six months, together

with the lower electricity purchase costs by the Electricity

Generating Authority of Thailand (EGAT) as privately

owned electric power plants were unable to deliver

electrical currents in accordance with their contractual

agreement with EGAT.


cushion somewhat the effects of the decline in the

merchandise export volume. Notwithstanding,

overall farm income remains low, owing partly to

the fact that higher prices still cannot fully offset the

impact of the drought. This, together with elevated

levels of household debt, will weigh on private

consumption going forward.

The Committee judges risks to crude oil

prices to be balanced. Downside risks are as follow:

(1) global oil demand may be lower than anticipated

given a delayed global recovery; (2) shale oil

producers may resume production sooner than the

baseline projection as oil prices rises; and (3)

supply of crude oil from OPEC producers may be

larger than expected as they increase production to

maintain their market share. On the other hand,

upside risks come mainly from conflicts in the

Middle East which potentially spread to major oil

production locations.

(3) The number of tourists has risen more

than expected as a result of continued tourist

growth in almost all nationality groups. Going

forward, growth in the number of tourists is

estimated to exceed the previous projection.

Exports of services are expected to grow

strongly on the back of increases in the number of

tourists that is higher than previously assessed.

Particularly, the number of Chinese tourists has

increased significantly, while other nationalities have

shown clearer signs of recovery. The number of

Russian tourists, in particular, has turned around with

positive growth after two consecutive years of

contraction as the Russian economy has gradually

recovered. Moreover, the expansion of low-cost

airline routes, both of local and international airlines,

has been a key supporting factor to the robust growth

in Thailand’s tourism sector. The Committee estimates

the number of foreign tourists to rise to 34 million in


2016, up from the previous assessment of 32.4

million, and 36.7 million in 2017, up from the previous

projection of 34.4 million.

Improved employment in the service sector

thanks to tourism has partly offset income loss in the

manufacturing sector following the export slowdown.

The strength of the service sector thus contributes to

an overall expansion in household income which has

supported private consumption over the recent

period. However, going forward, the service sector

may not be able to absorb labor reallocation from

other sectors, as labor demand in the service sector

has started to soften. Moreover, elevated household

debt has induced more cautious spending behavior.

In this regard, private consumption is expected to

recover at a slow pace.

(4) The public sector continues to play a

critical role in sustaining the economy through

public expenditure, which is consistent with

the previous assessment, as well as through

additional stimulus measures.

Overall, the public sector’s disbursement for

investment spending and financial commitments is

continuously moving forward. The Committee thus

revises up the projection for public consumption

following the expedited disbursement of transfer

payments to the National Health Security Fund in the

first quarter of this year. Meanwhile, the Committee

expects public investment in 2016 to remain close to

the previous projection and to rise slightly in 2017 due

to expedited carry-over expenditure in accordance

with the Transfer of Expenses Budget Act, B.E. 2559.

The outlook for investment of state-owned

enterprises (SOEs) also remains largely unchanged

despite some delay in the Prachuap Khiri Khan

Chumphon dual-track rail project.

Public expenditure has been well on-track,

especially those related to government measures to


improve living standards in provincial sub-districts.

These measures involve transfers to sub-district

agencies for the purpose of consumption and

investment, which in effect directly induces private-

sector spending. In addition, the public sector’s

outlays for construction have helped accommodate

labor movement out of the agricultural sector over the

recent period. This, in combination with the recovery

in domestic demand, will in the short run aid private

investment to grow faster than the previous

assessment. Nonetheless, private investment is

expected to moderate going forward due to the

waning of effects from stimulus spending and due to

more subdued external demand that potentially affect

future earnings and investment plans.

The Committee judges the balance of risks to

public spending to be tilted to the upside. Upside risks

include (1) some SOE investment projects—including

additional dual-track rails, high-speed rail projects,

and new express-way routes—that may commence

next year, earlier than previously expected, and

(2) higher-than-expected expenditure by local

governments thanks to measures to expedite

disbursement of the accumulated funds of local

administrative organizations. Downside risks include

(1) limited efficiency of spending disbursement by

some government agencies, (2) rescission of funds

already made available but not yet entered into

financial commitments, and (3) political uncertainties

which can pose a delay in public expenditure.

Risks to Growth and Inflation Forecasts

The Committee views risks to growth to

remain tilted to the downside, as reflected in the

growth fan chart that is skewed downward

throughout the forecast horizon (Chart 1.4).

Downside risks to growth are (1) weaker-than-

expected growth of trading partners, particularly

China as a result of financial stability concerns, (2)

-5

0

5

10

15

-5

0

5

10

15

Q1 2014 Q1 2015 Q1 2016 Q1 2017 Q1 2018

Chart 1.4 GDP growth forecast

Annual percentage change

Note: Fan chart covers 90 percent of probability distribution

Q1 Q1 Q1 Q1 Q1

2014 2015 2016 2017 2018


households that are financially impaired and have

less financial cushion for economic uncertainties

than previously expected, and (3) political uncertainties

that may affect public spending and tourism.

Nevertheless, upside risks include (1) government

investment that may be undertaken sooner and

greater than expected, together with the effects of

government stimulus that may turn out greater than

the baseline projection, and (2) the number of

tourists that may be greater than the baseline

projection. With regard to inflation, the Committee

judges the balance of risks to both headline and

core inflation to be tilted to the downside in line

with the balance of risks to growth (Chart 1.5

and 1.6).

1.2 Monetary policy decision

Monetary policy remained accommodative

in the second quarter of 2016 to support the

ongoing economic recovery that continues to face

downside risks on both domestic and external

fronts. The Committee will continue to closely

monitor financial stability risks arising from

prolonged low interest rates and emphasizes the

need to preserve policy space given remaining

uncertainties over the economic outlook.

At the MPC meeting on May 11, 2016, the

Committee voted unanimously to maintain the

policy rate at 1.50 percent per annum. In deliberating

this decision, the Committee assessed that the

Thai economy continued to expand at a pace

close to the assessment in the previous

meeting. Headline inflation was expected to

pick up gradually after turning positive in April,

as the base effect of oil price dissipated over time,

although demand-pull inflationary pressure still

-4

-2

0

2

4

6

-4

-2

0

2

4

6

Headline inflation target (2.5 + 1.5)

Chart 1.5 Headline inflaltion forecast



Q1 Q1 Q1 Q1 Q1

2014 2015 2016 2017 2018

-2

-1

0

1

2

3

4

-2

-1

0

1

2

3

4

Q1 2014 Q1 2015 Q1 2016 Q1 2017 Q1 2018

Chart 1.6 Core inflation forecast



Q1 Q1 Q1 Q1 Q1

2014 2015 2016 2017 2018


remained subdued overall. The balance of risks to

economic growth was judged to be tilted more to

the downside as the impact of the drought on

agricultural households was likely to weigh on

private consumption going forward.

Meanwhile, monetary conditions eased

further because of lower bond yields and the

recent cuts in lending rates by commercial banks.

Moreover, monetary conditions were judged to

remain accommodative despite the fact that the

Thai baht appreciated against some trading

partners’ currencies at some points which might

have not been as conducive to the economic

recovery as it could have been.

The Committee viewed that keeping the

policy rate on hold at this meeting would help

preserve policy space for risks that could have

negative impact on the ongoing economic recovery.

These risks included a possible delay in the global

economic recovery, weaker consumption growth,

and political uncertainties that might affect both

private investment and consumption. Additionally,

some committee members viewed the current

economic slowdown to be attributed to structural

problems, both domestically and globally, which

could not be addressed by monetary policy alone.

Moreover, cutting the policy rate at this juncture

could potentially lead to further accumulation of

imbalances in the financial sector, especially given

that interest rates remained low for an extended

period. The Committee would also continue to

closely monitor risks to financial stability, particularly

the search-for-yield behavior that could exacerbate

underpricing of risks, and the possibility of a

snapback of global bond yields, which could affect

financing conditions, balance sheets of businesses,

and the overall monetary conditions through

adjustments in Thai government bond yields.


In the following MPC meeting on June 22,

2016, the Committee voted unanimously to

maintain the policy rate at 1.50 percent per annum.

The Committee projected that the Thai economy

would continue to recover and inflation would

return to the target band in the latter half of the

year in line with previous assessment. Meanwhile,

monetary conditions remained accommodative and

conducive to the ongoing recovery. Looking ahead,

the Committee viewed that monetary policy should

continue to be accommodative and would continue

to closely monitor financial stability risks.

In deliberating this decision, the Committee

gave due consideration to Thailand’s ongoing

economic recovery. Going forward, the economy

would be driven primarily by public expenditure and

tourism. At the same time, private consumption

would improve in line with previous assessment

while private investment would continue to be at a

low level. However, merchandise exports were

projected to contract in tandem with slower-than-

expected growth of Asian economies. In light of

these developments, the Committee assessed that

the economic momentum from domestic demand

and tourism would help offset the impact of weaker

exports. As a result, the economic outlook would be

largely unchanged and the economy would expand

at the same pace as assessed in the previous

meeting. Nevertheless, there remained several

downside risks to growth, namely weaker-than-

expected growth in trading partners and fragility in

private-sector sentiments. Incidentally, previous

concerns pertaining to the impact of the drought

subsided along with the recovery in prices of some

agricultural commodities.

The Committee also gave due consideration

to the inflation outlook where headline inflation

was projected to return to the lower bound of

the inflation target within the latter half of 2016


as previously expected. Meanwhile, medium-

term inflation expectations remained well-

anchored around the inflation target. Demand-

pull inflationary pressure increased somewhat due

to the ongoing economic recovery, as reflected in

core inflation that edged up slightly. Headline

inflation was projected to pick up gradually as

energy prices would rise in tandem with crude oil

prices. Medium-term inflation expectations (5-10

years ahead) based on a survey of professional

economists’ remained well-anchored around the

inflation target of 2.5 percent.

Monetary conditions were accommodative

throughout recent periods and were conducive to

the economic recovery and the return of headline

inflation to the target. Accommodative monetary

conditions were reflected in low real interest rates

and the continued expansion of total corporate

financing and lending to households, although

certain businesses faced limitations in accessing

credits. Going forward, the Committee still saw the

need to continue monitoring financial stability risks,

including the search-for-yield behavior, in the

prolonged low interest rate environment.

Finally, the Committee assessed the

preservation of policy space to be critical, given

that the economy would face various risks going

forward. These risks included the fragile global

economic recovery, monetary policy divergence,

financial stability concerns in China, as well as

Brexit. The Committee would stand ready to utilize

an appropriate mix of available policy tools in order

to make sure that monetary conditions and the

exchange rate remain conducive to the economic

recovery as well as to ensure financial stability.


1.3 Appendix: Tables for supporting assumptions and forecasts

Table 1.3 Forecast for GDP and assumptions

Percent 2015* 2016 2017

GDP growth 2.8 3.1 3.2

Domestic demand 2.8 3.0 2.5

Private consumption 2.1 1.8 2.1

Private investment -2.0 3.1 2.3

Government consumption 2.2 3.5 2.8

Public investment 29.8 10.1 5.2

Exports of goods and services 0.2 2.2 0.9

Imports of goods and services -0.4 -1.9 2.4

Current account (billion, US dollars) 32.0 37.8 32.3

Value of merchandise exports -5.6 -2.5 0.0

Value of merchandise imports -11.3 -6.0 5.3

Note: *Outturns

Table 1.4 Forecast assumptions

Annual percentage change 2015* 2016 2017

Dubai oil price (U.S. dollars per barrel) 50.8 .1 .0

Non-fuel commodity prices (%YoY) 1 . -5.5 2.6

Fresh food prices (%YoY) . 3.0 3.7

Minimum wage in the Bangkok Metropolitan Region (baht per day) 300 300 300

Government consumption (current price) (%YoY) 4.4 6.3 6.3

Public investment (current price) (%YoY)1/ 25.6 10.4 8.4

Fed Funds rate (% at year-end) 0.38 0.63 1.

Trading partners’ economic growth (% YoY)2/ 3.2 3.0 3.3

Regional currencies vis-à-vis the U.S. dollar (Index)3/ 150.7 154.4 157.2

Note: 1/ Including spending on water management plans and infrastructure investment projects2/ Weighted by each trading partner’s share in Thailand’s total exports3/ Appreciation against the US dollar indicated by the minus sign

* Outturns


Note: Compiled and published by Reuters on June 20, 2016, except:1/ Published on April 28, 20162/ Published on May 16, 2016 with the release of GDP data for 2016 Q1

Presented in descending order of 2016 forecasts

Table 1.5 GDP growth forecasts by research houses

2016 2017

Maybank Kim Eng 4.0 5.0

PFO1/ 3.3 -

NESDB2/ 3.3 -

Thanachart Securities 3.3 4.2

Bank of Ayudhya 3.2 -

BOT 3.1 3.2

Moody’s 3.0 3.4

ANZ Bank 3.0 3.2

Kasikorn Research 3.0 3.2

HSBC 3.0 3.1

JPMorgan 3.0

TMB Bank 2.8 3.3

Siam Commercial Bank 2.8 3.3

Phatra Securities 2.8 3.2

Kiatnakin Bank 2.8 3.2

Nomura 2.7 2.7

Table 1.6 Headline inflation forecasts by research houses

2016 2017

Maybank Kim Eng 2.0 2.5

Thanachart Securities 0.8 2.0

BOT 0.6 2.2

ANZ Bank 0.6 2.0

Kasikorn Research 0.6 1.7

Nomura Co Ltd 0.6 1.4

Bank Ayudhya 0.6

TMB Bank 0.5 2.5

Kiatnakin Bank 0.5 1.8

Phatra Securities 0.5 1.8

Siam Commercial Bank 0.4 2.3

TISCO Securities 0.4 2.2

JPMorgan 0.4 2.1

NESDB1/ 0.4 -

FPO2/ 0.3 -

KT ZMICO 0.0 1.5

Moody’s -0.2 1.7

Note: Compiled and published by Reuters on June 20, 2016, except:1/ Published on May 16, 2016 with the release of GDP data for 2016 Q12/ Published on April 28, 2016

Presented in descending order of 2016 forecasts


2018

Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q4

10-12 0 0 0 0 0 0 1 1 2

8-10 0 0 0 1 2 3 3 4 5

6-8 0 1 4 7 9 10 11 11 12

4-6 0 21 24 23 22 22 21 21 20

2-4 100 54 41 34 29 27 26 25 23

0-2 0 22 24 24 22 21 21 20 19

(-2)-0 0 2 6 9 11 11 11 12 12

< (-2) 0 0 1 2 4 5 6 7 7

Table 1.7 Probability distribution of GDP growth forecast

Percent

2016 2017

2018

Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1

> 7 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 1 1

6-7 0 0 0 0 1 1 1 1 1

5-6 0 0 0 1 5 4 4 4 4

4-5 0 0 1 3 11 10 9 9 9

3-4 0 0 4 10 18 17 15 15 15

2-3 0 2 14 20 22 21 20 20 19

1-2 0 18 28 26 20 20 20 20 19

0-1 0 41 29 21 13 14 15 15 15

(-1)-(0) 100 30 17 12 7 8 9 9 9

(-2)-(-1) 0 8 6 5 3 3 4 5 5

(-3)-(-2) 0 1 1 1 1 1 1 2 2

(-4)-(-3) 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 1 1

< (-4) 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0

2016 2017

Percent

Table 1.8 Probability distribution of headline inflation forecast


2018

Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1

> 4.5 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 1

4.0-4.5 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0

3.5-4.0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0

3.0-3.5 0 0 0 0 0 0 1 1 1

2.5-3.0 0 0 0 0 1 2 2 3 4

2.0-2.5 0 0 1 2 5 6 7 9 10

1.5-2.0 0 2 6 9 13 14 15 16 16

1.0-1.5 0 23 22 23 22 22 21 21 20

0.5-1.0 100 47 35 29 25 23 22 20 19

0.0-0.5 0 24 25 22 19 18 17 15 14

(-1)-0.0 0 3 9 11 10 10 10 9 8

(-2)-(-1) 0 0 2 3 4 4 4 4 4

< -2 0 0 0 1 1 1 1 1 1

Table 1.9 Probability distribution of core inflation forecast

Percent

2016 2017

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