Growth Trends and Growth Trends and Planning Solutions for Planning Solutions for

Livable PlacesLivable Places

Joseph Carreras Southern California Association of Governments

November 30, 2001

The 1939 Inter-regional Highways VisionThe 1939 Inter-regional Highways Vision

“Who can say what new horizons lie before us if we but have the initiative and imagination to penetrate

them--new economic horizons-new social

horizons-new horizons in many fields, leading to new

benefits for everyone, everywhere.”

General Motors’ Futurama, 1939 New York World’s Fair

The Post War Sprawl Era BeginsThe Post War Sprawl Era Begins1950, 1 in 14 Americans live in California

Source: New York Times, U.S. Census

The West and South are the Focus The West and South are the Focus of National Growthof National Growth

2000, 1 in 8 Americans live in California

LA Consolidated Metro Area Rank - LA Consolidated Metro Area Rank - Highest Growth, Highest Density Level, Highest Growth, Highest Density Level, Worst Smog, Tenth worst commute timeWorst Smog, Tenth worst commute time

269,257

295,526

363,697

786,051

881,020

917,720

938,440

1,184,519

1,650,216

1,842,116

0 200,000 400,000 600,000 800,000 1,000,000 1,200,000 1,400,000 1,600,000 1,800,000 2,000,000

8. Detroit

6. Philadelphia

7. Boston

5. San Francisco

4. Washington

3. Chicago

10. Houston

9. Dallas

1. New York

2. Los Angeles

1990 to 2000 population gain

Do We Plan or Let the Chips Fall Do We Plan or Let the Chips Fall Where They May?Where They May?

In 2000, 42% of Residents of the SCAG Region Live Outside Los Angeles County

The Shape of the SCAG Region, 2000

PopulationImperial County 142,361 Los Angeles County 9,519,338 Orange County 2,846,289 Riverside County 1,545,387 San Bernardino County 1,709,434 Ventura County 753,197

16,516,006

Each square represents 50,000 people.

Source: US Census.

SCAG Counties

By 2025, the Region will Add By 2025, the Region will Add 6 million people to its 2000 Shape6 million people to its 2000 Shape

The Shape of the Projected SCAG Region, 2025

PopulationImperial County 318,000Los Angeles County 12,277,000Orange County 3,431,000Riverside County 2,856,000San Bernardino County 2,821,000Ventura County 940,000

22,643,000Each square represents 50,000 people.

Source: SCAG 2001 RTP

SCAG Counties

Population Growth by Dependent Group The next 25 years will see a big increase in Elderly

689,509

1,935,357

1,710,029

2,042,804

0

500,000

1,000,000

1,500,000

2,000,000

2,500,000

3,000,000

3,500,000

4,000,000

4,500,000

1975-2000 2000-2025

Under 20

Above 65

In About 10 Years Expect A Big Increase in Elderly Persons

16.5%

36.9%

31.5%

31.4%

0%

10%

20%

30%

40%

50%

60%

70%

80%

2000-2010 2010-2025

Under 20

Above 65

Population Age Cohort-Ages Between 20 and 29-Most Likely Reveal the Strongest Demand for Apartments

-800,000

-600,000

-400,000

-200,000

0

200,000

400,000

600,000

800,000

1,000,000

70-75 75-80 80-85 85-90 90-95 95-00 00-05 05-10 10-15 15-20 20-25

SCAG Region California

Source: California Department of

Finance

SCAG Region Population Growth By Ethnicity Hispanic Population will rise sharply, more so than it will statewide

0

2,000,000

4,000,000

6,000,000

8,000,000

10,000,000

12,000,000

14,000,000

1970 1975 1980 1985 1990 1995 2000 2005 2010 2015 2020 2025

NH White Hispanic Asian/PI Black Native Americans

Growth Trends Over the Next 25 Growth Trends Over the Next 25 Years in Southern CaliforniaYears in Southern California

• Add 6 million people or as many as over the last ¼ century

• Growth is inevitable and may equal two cities the size of Chicago

• Hispanics will make up 85% of net growth, Asians the remainder

• Dependent population rises from just under 40% of past growth to over 60% of future growth

• Nearly 2 million more elderly and 2 million more youth under 20 years of age

• Elderly portion of growth will be 3 times higher than in the past, youth 20% higher

Consequently, expect a:

• Shrinking middle age group, shrinking middle class (?), shrinking economy (?)

• Sharp rise in transit dependent population and elderly housing demand

Aging Baby Boomers and Aging Baby Boomers and Young HispanicsYoung Hispanics

• Will Baby Boomers age in Place? What are their next moves?

• Young Hispanics, where will they seek apartments and starter homes?

• Will immigrants continue to cram into crowded quarters as they come to the region for jobs?

• Citizen participation and voting on land use decisions may be affected by different lifestyle and housing needs between aging Baby Boomers and young Hispanics. How do we assure social equity goal achievement?

• Are mixed use developments an emerging trend driven by new lifestyle demands of empty-nest boomers in their mid 50s?

Regional Livability FootprintRegional Livability Footprint

0% 10% 20% 30% 40% 50% 60% 70% 80%

Orange

Lower Desert

CA

Los Angeles

Ventura*

Riverside

San Bernardino

High Desert

$0 $50 $100 $150 $200 $250 $300 $350 $400

High Desert

Riverside

San Bernardino

Lower Desert

Los Angeles

CA

Ventura*

Orange

Thousands

Affordability IndexAffordability IndexAffordability IndexAffordability Index

Median Home Median Home PricesPrices

Median Home Median Home PricesPrices

Many seek Many seek affordable, affordable,

starter starter homes in the homes in the

Inland Inland Valley and Valley and

desert areas.desert areas.

Production Solutions Include Fiscal/Tax Production Solutions Include Fiscal/Tax Incentives, Developer Inducements and Incentives, Developer Inducements and Public Education About Housing NeedsPublic Education About Housing Needs

Production Solutions Include Fiscal/Tax Production Solutions Include Fiscal/Tax Incentives, Developer Inducements and Incentives, Developer Inducements and Public Education About Housing NeedsPublic Education About Housing Needs

Villa Del PuebloVilla Del PuebloLos Angeles, CALos Angeles, CA

This housing complex was designed to meet the housing needs of larger Hispanics families in Los Angeles.

Photo Source: SCANPH

A Model Multi-Family Housing A Model Multi-Family Housing Production SolutionProduction Solution

Project Participants • Century Housing • City of Whittier• Federal Home Loan Bank• Housing Authority, County of LA• HUD Home Investment Partnership

Program• J. Dreyfuss & Assoc., Inc. • Killerfer Flammang Purtill

Architects • Lend Lease Real Estate Investments• LINC Housing Corporation• Vista Communities, Inc.• Washington Mutual Bank

Seasons at the HooverSeasons at the HooverWhittier, CAWhittier, CA

Multi-Family Historic PreservationMulti-Family Historic Preservation

Community Visioning -10 ExamplesCommunity Visioning -10 Examples 1. The City of Los Angeles: Several major showcase civic, mixed-used,

cultural, transit-oriented, LA river, corridor and new-town initiatives across the city;

2. Pasadena’s Mixed use showcase development—Paseo Colorado along with old town;

3. Queensway Bay, Pine Street and Blue line transit plaza development in Long Beach;

4. Azusa’s Community Congress visioning project for the Monrovia Nursery and the Back to the Boulevard visioning effort in Whittier are achieving high civic participation goals in local planning;

5. Bold mixed-use projects from Alhambra’s Plaza on Main to the Valencia Town Center in Santa Clarita are garnering design awards;

6. The 3rd Street Pedestrian promenade flourishes in Santa Monica;7. Brea’s New Downtown offers lofts, in-fill housing and mixed use

redevelopment;8. Anaheim’s new Disney Theme Park and Convention Center Expansion;9. Santa Ana’s Nine block Artist Village; and10.Cathedral City’s Downtown Revitalization in the Desert

Mixed-use, Transit-oriented DevelopmentMixed-use, Transit-oriented DevelopmentHollywood & HighlandHollywood & Highland

Redevelop BrownfieldsRedevelop Brownfields

Chesterfield Square

Chesterfield Square: Suburban Chesterfield Square: Suburban Shopping Arrives in South Central LAShopping Arrives in South Central LA

• Amistad housing project• Federal Empowerment

Zone tax incentives• State enterprise zone

incentives• City of Los Angeles

incentives• Redevelopment area

Supported by:

Coordinate Local Land Use With Coordinate Local Land Use With Future Growth ProjectionFuture Growth Projection

Planned land use is medium and high density...

Coordinate Local Land Use With Coordinate Local Land Use With Future Growth ProjectionFuture Growth Projection

but existing land use is predominately low density.

Create Mechanisms for Consensus and Create Mechanisms for Consensus and Dispute Resolution on Land Use IssuesDispute Resolution on Land Use Issues

• Regional Housing Needs Assessment and Housing Element reform

• Subregional Visioning efforts and Civic dialogue

• Monitor development and create benchmarks for success

Multi-Family Housing ProductionMulti-Family Housing Production

Promote Fiscal IncentivesPromote Fiscal Incentives

• Promote inter-regional partnerships: 3 pilot programs in Southern California

• Promote job housing balance policies and social equity goals through smart growth

• Invest in infrastructure, including airports

• Workforce development• Location Efficient Mortgage

Demonstration with LEM Partners and FannieMae

Commercial/Retail Viability is Shifting in Commercial/Retail Viability is Shifting in Response to Regional Centers at Freeway Response to Regional Centers at Freeway

Interchanges and Transit Stops so:Interchanges and Transit Stops so:

– Invest in citizen participation

– Promote local serving jobs downtown and on main street

– Avoid blight along commercial strips by using multifamily housing as a buffer between business nodes, establish gateways, use banners and streetscapes

– Use housing in weak commercial areas and mix with retail

– Beware of big signs on thin poles

A Regional and State Compact A Regional and State Compact On GrowthOn Growth

Connect consensus building, civic visioning initiatives, such as: Community urban village efforts and strategies Sub-area planning efforts from the SOAR initiatives in

Ventura County to the Integrated Planning Process in Riverside County

Regional visioning projects like USC’s Building A Sustainable Southern California and SCAG’s Growth Visioning for A Sustainable Region

Adopt a state growth management strategy that supports other visioning efforts in California: Vision 2020 in San Diego Joint Venture Silicon Valley Bay Area Compact

Solutions for Sustaining a Livable Solutions for Sustaining a Livable Region in a “Post Sprawl Era”Region in a “Post Sprawl Era”

• Community visioning and urban villages• Redevelopment of Brownfields• Coordinate local land use planning with growth

projections to meet emerging life style choices • Create mechanisms for consensus and dispute

resolution on land use issues between communities and neighboring subregions.

• Promote fiscal incentives in California for encouraging job housing balance and better inter-jurisdictional cooperation on land use issues

• Develop a Regional compact that creates an effective mechanism for Mobility, Prosperity, Equity and Environmental Sustainability

http://www.scag.ca.gov/livablehttp://www.scag.ca.gov/livable