gsma seminar theatre 2015 · gsma seminar: mobile, wifi continuum 3 march 2015 dr. robert pepper...

GSMA Seminar Theatre 2015Mobile – Wi-Fi

Is there room for both licensed and unlicensed

networks?

Cisco Visual Networking Index (VNI) Forecast Mobile Data Traffic Update, 2014–2019

GSMA Seminar: Mobile, WiFi Continuum

3 March 2015

Dr. Robert PepperVice President - Global Technology Policy

Home

45%*

Work

29%*

Hotspot

16%*

On the go

9%*

Day in a Connected life

*consumption of data by 2019 Source- Cisco VNI

Global Mobile Data Traffic Growth / Top-LineGlobal Mobile Data Traffic will Increase 10-Fold from 2014─2019

Source: Cisco VNI Global Mobile Data Traffic Forecast, 2014–2019

57% CAGR 2014–2019

0

5

10

15

20

25

30

2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019

10.8 EB

2.5 EB

10.7 EB

6.8 EB

4.2 EB

16.1 EB

24.3 EB

Exabytes

per Month

Global Mobile Data Traffic Drivers

More Mobile

Connections

More Mobile

Users

Faster Mobile 4G

Speeds

More Mobile

Video


By 2019:

Mobile Momentum

Metrics

2014 2019

7.4 Billion 11.5 Billion

2014 2019

9.8 Mbps 14.1 Mbps

2014 2019

4.3 Billion 5.2 Billion

2014 2019

55% of Traffic

72% of Traffic

Global Mobile Device Growth by TypeBy 2019, Smartphones Will Attain Largest Share to Reach Nearly 40%

0

2

4

6

8

10

12

2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019

Other Portable Devices (0.2%,0.2%) Tablets (1%,3%)

Laptops (3%,2%) M2M (7%,28%)

Smartphones (29%,40%) Non-Smartphones (61%,27%)

9% CAGR 2014–2019


Billions of

Devices

* Figures (n) refer to 2014 and 2019 device shares

VNI Mobile Forecast Update, 2014–2019 Top Mobile Networking Trends

4G Takes Off

WiFi and off-loading becoming more essential

Video driving consumption

Wild Cards: VoWiFi and Low Power M2M WANs

0

1

2

3

4

5

6

7

2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018

Bill

ions o

f D

evic

es o

r C

onn

ectio

ns

4G 3G 2G

Global Connections by Network Type2G, 3G, and 4G Technology Connection Share

59%

68%

29%

3%

26%

15%


LAST YEAR

0.0

1.0

2.0

3.0

4.0

5.0

6.0

2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019

2G 3G 4G

Global Connections by Network Type2G, 3G, and 4G Technology Connection Share

48.2%

62%

32%

6%

28.5%

23.3%

Billions of

Devices or

Connections


0

50

100

150

200

250

300

350

400

2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018

Mill

ion

s o

f D

evic

es o

r C

onn

ectio

ns

4G 3G 2G

North America Connections by Network Type2G, 3G, and 4G Technology Connection Share

51%

62%

13%

25%

42%

7%


LAST YEAR

0

100

200

300

400

500

600

2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019

2G 3G 4G

North America Connections by Network Type2G, 3G, and 4G Technology Connection Share

63%

46%

39%

15%

30%

8%

Millions of

Devices or

Connections


0

100

200

300

400

500

600

2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018

Mill

ion

s o

f D

evic

es o

r C

onn

ectio

ns

4G 3G 2G

Western Europe Connections by Network Type2G, 3G, and 4G Technology Connection Share

60%

66%

32%

2%

24%

16%


LAST YEAR

0

50

100

150

200

250

300

350

400

450

500

2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019

2G 3G 4G

W. Europe Connections by Network Type2G, 3G, and 4G Technology Connection Share

45%

34%

56%

10%

37%

18%

Millions of

Devices or

Connections


0

100

200

300

400

500

600

700

2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018

Millio

ns o

f D

evic

es o

r C

on

necti

on

s

4G 3G 2G

Latin America Connections by Network Type2G, 3G, and 4G Technology Connection Share

64%

74%

25%

0.1%

27%

9%


LAST YEAR

0

100

200

300

400

500

600

2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019

2G 3G 4G

Latin America Connections by Network Type2G, 3G, and 4G Technology Connection Share

55%66%

33%

1%

23%

21%

Millions of

Devices or

Connections


0

1

1

2

2

3

3

4

2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018

Bill

ion

s o

f D

evic

es o

r C

on

ne

ctio

ns

4G 3G 2G

Asia Pacific Connections by Network Type2G, 3G, and 4G Technology Connection Share

58%

74%

2%

24%

29%

13%


LAST YEAR

0

500

1,000

1,500

2,000

2,500

3,000

2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019

2G 3G 4G

Asia Pacific Connections by Network Type2G, 3G, and 4G Technology Connection Share

48%66%

28%

5%

27%25%

Millions of

Devices or

Connections


0

200

400

600

800

1,000

1,200

2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018

Mill

ions o

f D

evic

es o

r C

onnections

4G 3G 2G

MEA Connections by Network Type2G, 3G, and 4G Technology Connection Share

58%86%

13%

0.3%

37%

5%


LAST YEAR

0

200

400

600

800

1,000

1,200

2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019

2G 3G 4G

MEA Connections by Network Type2G, 3G, and 4G Technology Connection Share

54%80%

19%

1%

32%

14%

Millions of

Devices or

Connections


0

10

20

30

40

50

60

70

2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018

Mill

ion

s o

f D

evic

es o

r C

onn

ectio

ns

4G 3G 2G

Spain Connections by Network Type2G, 3G, and 4G Technology Connection Shares

66%

74%

1%

24%17%

17%


LAST YEAR

0

5

10

15

20

25

30

35

40

45

2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019

2G 3G 4G

Spain Connections by Network Type2G, 3G, and 4G Technology Connection Share

45%

22%

67%

11%

42%

14%

Millions of

Devices or

Connections


0

5

10

15

20

25

30

35

40

2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019

2G 3G 4G

Australia Connections by Network Type2G, 3G, and 4G Technology Connection Share

54%

34%

56%

11%

39%

7%

Millions of

Devices or

Connections



4G Takes Off




0

5

10

15

20

25

30

35

40

45

50

55

60

2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019

Cellular Traffic from Mobile Devices

Offload Traffic from Mobile Devices

Global Mobile Data Traffic Offload*54% of Mobile Traffic to be Offloaded by 201946% of Mobile Traffic Offloaded in 2014

46%

54%


Exabytes

per Month

*Offload includes traffic from dual-mode devices (i.e., supports cell & Wi-Fi, excl. laptops) over Wi-Fi/small cell networks

0

2

4

6

8

10

12

2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019



NA Mobile Data Traffic Offload*66% of Mobile Traffic to be Offloaded by 201957% of Mobile Traffic Offloaded in 2014

34%

66%


Exabytes

per Month


0

1

2

3

4

5

6

7

2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019



WE Mobile Data Traffic Offload*61% of Mobile Traffic to be Offloaded by 201945% of Mobile Traffic Offloaded in 2014

39%

61%


Exabytes

per Month


0

1

2

3

4

2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019



LATAM Mobile Data Traffic Offload*46% of Mobile Traffic to be Offloaded by 201935% of Mobile Traffic Offloaded in 2014

54%

46%


Exabytes

per Month


0

5

10

15

20

2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019



APAC Mobile Data Traffic Offload*50% of Mobile Traffic to be Offloaded by 201944% of Mobile Traffic Offloaded in 2014

50%

50%


Exabytes

per Month


0

1

2

3

4

5

6

2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019



MEA Mobile Data Traffic Offload*38% of Mobile Traffic to be Offloaded by 201929% of Mobile Traffic Offloaded in 2014

62%

38%


Exabytes

per Month


0

100

200

300

400

2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019



Australia Mobile Data Traffic Offload*45% of Mobile Traffic to be Offloaded by 201937% of Mobile Traffic Offloaded in 2014

55%

45%


Petabytes

per Month


Global Internet Traffic by Local Access Technology76% Internet Traffic Access is Wireless

Source: Cisco VNI Global IP Traffic Forecast, 2013–2018

Petabytes

per Month

0

20,000

40,000

60,000

80,000

100,000

120,000

2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018

Mobile Data (61% CAGR)

Fixed/Wired (10% CAGR)

Fixed/Wi-Fi from Mobile Devices (71% CAGR)

Fixed/Wi-Fi from Wi-Fi Only Devices (19%CAGR) 24%

44%

15%

23% CAGR 2013–2018

17%

Australia Traffic by Local Access Technology77% Internet Traffic Access is Wireless

Source: Cisco VNI Global IP Traffic Forecast, 2013–2018

Petabytes

per Month

0

100

200

300

400

500

600

700

800

900

2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018

Mobile Data (63% CAGR)

Fixed/Wired (7% CAGR)

Fixed/Wi-Fi from Mobile Devices (77% CAGR)

Fixed/Wi-Fi from Wi-Fi Only Devices (19% CAGR)23%

56%

13%

22% CAGR 2013–2018

8%


4G Takes Off




0

5

10

15

20

25

30

2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019

Mobile File Sharing (1%,2%)

Mobile Audio (8%,7%)

Mobile Web/Data/VoIP (36%,19%)

Mobile Video (55%,72%)

Global Mobile Data Traffic Growth / AppsVideo to Exceed 72 Percent of Mobile Data Traffic by 2019

57% CAGR 2014–2019


Exabytes

per Month

* Figures (n) refer to 2014 and 2019 mobile data traffic shares

0

500

1,000

1,500

2,000

2,500

3,000

3,500

4,000

4,500

2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019





NA Mobile Data Traffic Growth / AppsVideo to Account for 75 Percent of Mobile Data Traffic by 2019

47% CAGR 2014–2019


Exabytes

per Month

* Figures (n) refer to 2014, 2019 mobile data traffic share

0

500

1,000

1,500

2,000

2,500

3,000

2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019





WE Mobile Data Traffic Growth / AppsVideo to Account for 74 Percent of Mobile Data Traffic by 2019

48% CAGR 2014–2019


Petabytes

per Month


0

500

1,000

1,500

2,000

2,500

3,000

3,500

4,000

2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019





CEE Mobile Data Traffic Growth / AppsVideo to Account for 70 Percent of Mobile Data Traffic by 2019

71% CAGR 2014–2019


Exabytes

per Month


0

500

1,000

1,500

2,000

2,500

2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019





LATAM Mobile Data Traffic Growth / AppsVideo to Account for 72 Percent of Mobile Data Traffic by 2019

59% CAGR 2014–2019


Exabytes

per Month


0

1,000

2,000

3,000

4,000

5,000

6,000

7,000

8,000

9,000

10,000

2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019





APAC Mobile Data Traffic Growth / AppsVideo to Account for 71 Percent of Mobile Data Traffic by 2019

58% CAGR 2014–2019


Exabytes

per Month


0

500

1,000

1,500

2,000

2,500

3,000

3,500

2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019





MEA Mobile Data Traffic Growth / AppsVideo to Account for 68 Percent of Mobile Data Traffic by 2019

72% CAGR 2014–2019


Exabytes

per Month


0

20

40

60

80

100

120

140

160

2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019

Average Hour Traffic

Busy Hour Traffic

Busy Hour Mobile Data TrafficBusy Hour Is 64% Higher than Average Hour in 2014, 84% in 2019


Tbps


4G Takes Off




0

1

2

3

4

5

6

7

8

9

2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019

VoWiFi VoLTE VoIP

71%

Wild Card: VoWiFi MoU Exceeds VoLTE by 2018VoWiFi Accounts for 53% of Mobile IP Voice by 2019

53%

41%

Minutes of

Use

(Billions) per

Year

Source: ACG, Cisco VNI Global Mobile Data Traffic Forecast, 2014–2019

6%29%

0.0

0.2

0.4

0.6

0.8

1.0

1.2

2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019

2G 3G 4G LP M2M

Wild Card: Global M2M Connections By Network Type

35%

67%

32%

1%

29%

23%42%

38%

7%

Billions of

Devices or

Connections


13%

13%

Key Takeaways

• 4G taking off…3G dominate…2G past peak

• WiFi essential as complement to mobile macro cell networks

• Video driving mobile data

• Need more investment in networks to meet demand

• Need more spectrum—licensed and unlicensed

• Wild cards: new business models

Cisco VNI Mobile Forecast; 2014–2019Get more info—see Tools and Resources

www.cisco.com/go/vni

[email protected]

[email protected]

mailto:[email protected]

gsma seminar theatre 2015 · gsma seminar: mobile, wifi continuum 3 march 2015 dr. robert pepper...

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