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China has bad human rights

Human rights watch 14

Rapid socio-economic change in China has been accompanied by relaxation of some restrictionson basic rights, but the government remains an authoritarian one-party state. Itplacesarbitrary curbs on expression, association, assembly, and religion; prohibitsindependent labor unions and human rights organizations; and maintains Partycontrol over all udicial institutions.!he government censors the press, the Internet,print publications, and academic research, and usti"es human rights abuses asnecessary to preserve #social stability.$ It carries out involuntary populationrelocation and rehousing on a massive scale, and enforces highly repressive policiesin ethnic minority areas in !ibet, %iniang, and Inner &ongolia. !hough primary school enrollment and basicliteracy rates are high,

China's education system discriminates against children and youngpeople (ith disabilities. !he government obstructs domestic and internationalscrutiny of its human rights record, insisting it is an attempt to destabilize thecountry.)t the same time, citizens are increasingly prepared to challenge authorities overvolatile livelihood issues, such as land seizures, forced evictions, environmentaldegradation, miscarriages of ustice, abuse of po(er by corrupt cadres,discrimination, and economic ine*uality.+cial and scholarly statistics, based on la( enforcement reports, suggest thereare 300-500 protests each day, with anywhere from ten to tens of

thousands of participantsespite the riss, Internet users and reform-orientedmedia are aggressively pushing censorship boundaries by advocating for the rule ofla( and transparency, exposing ocial (rongdoing, and calling for political reforms. Civil society groups and advocates continue to slo(ly expand their (or despite their precarious status, and an informal but resilient net(or of activists monitors and documents humanrights cases as a loose national #(ei*uan$ /rights defense0 movement. !hese activists endure police monitoring, detention, arrest, enforced disappearance, and torture.

!PP will help the economy

Congressional "esearch #er$ice in %015&

!he !rans-paci'c Partnership, a central part of the President's Pi$ot strategy,

would reduce barriers to trade for a large slice of the world economy , including

China, 1apan, 2and3 4outh 5orea, and the 64. 7roc 8illiams of the Congressional Research 4ervice reports that (!)he countriesin$ol$ed in the !PP represent about 40* of the world+s population and

0* of global .P,sho(ing that a maority of the (orld's economy including the 6nited 4tates. !he /C. found that,

#9rom an economic perspective, non-discriminatory tari reduction is a win-win scenario

for both de$eloped and de$eloping countriesImproved maret access extends consumer choice, (ith more products and a (ider price range. It also

encourages improved allocative eciency (ith respect to resources both in developing and developed countries/i.e. price distortions are reduced, so a country's use of resources across sectors shifts to be more in line (ith areas of comparative advantage2

or de$eloping countries, impro$ed resource allocation and higher eport

re$enue contribute to national income and increase the pool of resources

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a$ailable for de$elopment related in$estment )n earlier +:C report found that, #)cross the scenarios, the estimated globalannual (and ) welfare gainsrange from 64s.$ )ccording to the +ce of the 6nited 4tates !rade Representative, #in the !PP

!he Peterson Institute for International :conomics concludes,/$erall, the !PP should boost the .P of member countries by 6%85 billion

/in B@@= dollars0 over baseline proections, or by @. percent.9apan and the :nited #tates (ouldaccount(ing( for 6181 billion of that total or 3 percent of the combined

gainsof the airs analyst Ric 9isher as saying. China allegedly tested its deadliest nuclearmissile on )pril

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>steroid mining soon possible

&ie ?all, 4pace,

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economic do(nturn (as follo(ed by the most destructive (ar in human history. Inthe erent, yet orts to stimulate economic gro(th0. !he greater danger (ith China is not an eclipsing of 64 leadership,but instead the ind of shift in strategic orientation that happened to 1apan after the Dreat epression. 1apan (as arguably not a revisionist po(er before

erences that could become more pronounced if economic friction (ith 7eiing or Russia cro(ds out cooperation or if 8estern

:uropean governments gro( nervous about sanctions as a tool of policy. It is possible that the economic do(nturn(ill mae these dangerous states more pliable because of falling fuel prices /Iran0and greater need for foreign aid /Qorth 5orea and &yanmar0, but that may dependon the extent that authoritarian leaders care about the (ell-being of their people orface internal political pressures lined to the economy. 4o far, there islittle evidence to suggest either

and much evidence to suggest these dangerous states see an opportunity to advancetheir asymmetrical advantages against the international system .

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"oc and prc relations!aiwan and China need stability

:zra Q. M. Chen9ello(, 8eatherhead Center for International )>airs Marvard

6niversity 1uly B@03

) stable !ai(an 4trait is exactly (hat both sides of the strait need. It is also desired by the 6nited 4tates, (hich has consistently stressedits interest in the stability and security of the !ai(an 4trait as (ell as in a peaceful resolution of the disputes bet(een !ai(an and the PRC.!ai(an needs stability becausemainland China's huge marets have provided !ai(anese businesspeople (ithopportunities to stay competitive in the globalization process. China needs stabilitybecause it is conducive to using the economic means to accomplish the #sacredmission$ of reuniting !ai(an (ith the mainland. 7esides, as modernization and economic development are at the top of the PRC reform agenda,an economically robust !ai(an (ould not only enhance its economic development,but (ould also be a #golden goose$ that China (ould not (ant to ill . )t the same time, China'smilitary buildup and the deployment of @@ missiles along the coast opposite !ai(anas (ell as China's insistence on the right to use force against !ai(an are

strategically designed to act as a last resort to deter !ai(an from becoming a deure independent and sovereign state.)lthough intractable obstacles still exist at the level of #high politics$ /e.g., the sovereignty issue, one China issue0,the #lo( politics$ economic and cultural exchanges bet(een the t(o have gained alot of momentum since the late

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7eiing's move WF China should restrict the building of its amphibious eet.

8ashington's move W?F !he 6nited 4tates should cease all arms transfers for!ai(an.

8ashington's move W?F China should renounce the use of force as part of the peace

treaty process that oins !ai(an and the &ainland in a confederation.

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CybersecurityCybersecurity up, hac;ing from china is falling with treaty

tal;s

1oseph =enn and1im in;le, E-B

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lection

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!rump!rump will be elected in the so, no uniuenessI trump could

be good

:mily #tewart , ?--B@1, OIf onald !rump (as president, hereLs (hat (ould

happen to the 6.4. economy,O !he4treet,httpsFGG(((.thestreet.comGstoryG

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Jes Clinton K Polls

Gewest polls

!imes of Fsrael -4-

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can at least say theyLre doing better than their nominee /(hoLs at a net negative B point rating0 but theyLre not far

behind, (ith only B percent of voters giving the party a thumbs up, compared to percent giving it a thumbs

do(n. 7arac +bamaLs approval rating is ?< percent. Millary Clinton is adamant that sheLs running forher o(n "rst term, not 7arac +bamaLs third term. 7ut as the emocratic Party nominee, a eypart of her message is building on +bamaLs vision and the OprogressO hisadministration has promoted. :ven as maority of the electorate ?H percent say theyLre interested

in a change candidate, the mancurrently steering the ship has hit his highest approval ratingsince his second inauguration. +bamaLs high rating (hich includes support from a maority ofindependents and (omen as (ell as NB percent of 4anders voters means that heLll be a po(erfulsurrogate for Clinton once the emocratic primary is in the history boos.!rump is under-performing (ith (hite (omen by

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Jes Clinton K =odels

Hillary will win K =oody+s

Dong 5-%-

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httpFGGmoney.cnn.comGB@

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Jes Clinton K Prediction =ar;ets

Prediction mar;ets fa$or Clinton K they should be preferred

o$er fundamentals or polls

erent (ay of forecasting election results is to follo( the (isdom of cro(ds,found in election betting marets/such as those aggregated by Predict8ise0. 4ome critics of thesetools believe they only *uantify conventional (isdom, (hich is as liely to be (rong as right. 7ut predictionmarets have the advantage that the participants, and therefore the results, cantae into consideration any relevant information -- as opposed to the OfundamentalsOanalysis, (hich excludes anything speci"c to this election cycle, and polling, (hichonly loos at current public opinion and therefore ignores predictable changes. 4o far

this year, Clinton has been the solid fa$orite. Predict(ise currently gives theemocrats a E= percent chance of (inningin Qovember.

http://www.myajc.com/news/news/presidential-race-gets-harder-predict/nrTnT/http://www.myajc.com/news/news/presidential-race-gets-harder-predict/nrTnT/

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Jes ClintonK .emographics

Hillary will win K demographics and electoral college

Cassidy 5-%5- (riter, O!M: CM)KK:QD:4 9)CIQD MIKK)RS CKIQ!+QO !he Qe( Sorer --(((.ne(yorer.comGne(sGohn-cassidyGthe-challenges-facing-hillary-clinton3

8ith somepeople I no( in panic mode about thelatest opinion polls sho(ingonald!rumpperforming (ellin a prospective fall campaign againstMillary Clinton, I thought it might be(orth stepping bac a bit and looing at the prospects for s uch a race in Qovember. 9oremocrats and others alarmed by !rump's advance, the outloo is reassuring, but not entirely so. )ssuming that

Millary Clinton(raps up the emocratic nomination pretty soon, she (ill be the "rm favorite to (inthe general election. 7ut she faces some signi"cant challenges, not least of (hich is confronting ademagogue (ho daily traduces her and her husband. >rguably, the biggest factor in Clinton+s

fa$or is demography.!he +bama coalition of minority voters, young people,single (omen, and highly educated (hite voters of both sexes, (hich has seen the emocrats tovictories in B@@N and B@

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(((.politico.comGmagazineGstoryGB@

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campaign had energized the party (hile ?N percent felt it had divided Republicans. In total, == percent said they

(ould de"nitely or probably vote for !rump in the general election, and BB percent said they (ould be #scared$ if he

became president. +f course, there is ample time for !rump to bring anti-!rump Republicans bac into the fold, and

his favorability numbers among party members have improved in recent (ees. 4till, via Dallup, his net favorable

rating among Republicans (as ]B as of &ay ? versus ] for Clinton among emocrats.!hese factors,coupled (ith Clinton's healthy lead over !rump in early horserace polling, led the

Crystal 7all to mae Clinton a large favorite

in our "rst Clinton-!rump :lectoralCollege map,in (hich (e give Clinton a H= to