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Latin America PV: Lessons Learned and Strategies for Success!!

January 23, 2014!

Speaker:!

Moderator:!

Adam James!Solar Analyst, GTM Research!

Shayle Kann!SVP of Research, GTM Research!

About GTM Research!

GTM Research, a division of Greentech Media, provides critical and timely market analysis in the form of research reports , data services , advisory services and strategic consulting . GTM Researchs analysis also underpins Greentech Medias webinars and live events. !

REPORTS! CONSULTING!DATA SERVICES!

About the Latin America PV Playbook!The Latin America PV Playbook explores the budding Latin American PV Market by country"!

The Playbook has three distinct deliverables: the Solar Essentials Report, the Quarterly Market Update, and the Project Database.!

Solar Essentials Report! 60 slides, delivered annually! Fundamentals, demand drivers and opportunities!!Quarterly Market Update! ~65 slides, delivered quarterly! Market history, competitive landscape, forecasts!!Project Database! Excel workbook, delivered quarterly! 400 megawatt-scale projects and growing!

Global PV demand is becoming more di#used!

Latin America region has several markets with raised proles! Will be 2% of global demand over the next 4 years!

Global PV demand is still mostly incentive-driven, but companies should pay attention to emerging, unsubsidized markets!

Will play a larger role in coming years ! A chance to get experience under conditions that will characterize

future markets!

GTM Research is using the Latin America PV Playbook to help companies sort through announcements and get clear view of market direction and opportunities!

Latin America PV in the Global Context!

Overview of Latin America PV Opportunities!

Mexico DG Self-Supply Small Power Producer IPP

Brazil DG IPP (State Tender) IPP (Na@onal Tender)

Chile PPA Merchant

Strong Demand!

Moderate Demand !

Weak/No Demand !

5 year time horizon!

Mexico: Market Dynamics!

DG!

$Assessment : Steady growth!$Drivers : High insolation; DAC rates; Net-metering!$Expect/Consider : Expanded role for nancing!

SPPP!

$Assessment : Growth then plateau!$Drivers : High marginal prices; Forward curve visibility; IDB nancing!$Expect/Consider : Chill from Energy Reform; Competition against self-supply model!

Self-Supply!

$Assessment : Rapid growth!$Drivers : Insolation arbitrage; DAC rates; Energy Bank!$Expect/Consider: New business models; Long sales cycle!

IPP!

$Assessment : Low growth!$Drivers : Carbon Target Legislation!$Expect/Consider: Mostly quiet; Energy Reform may spark

Source: GTM Research: La#n America PV Playbook

Mexico: Pipeline and Key Players!

Source: GTM Research: La#n America PV Playbook

41.2!

60!

[VALUE]!

1Q14 Mexico PV Capacity (MW)!

Operational!

Approved!

Under Construction!

Leading Developers!

Operational Capacity!

Martifer/Gauss! 30 MW!

CFE! he6 MW!

ABB! 1.2 MW!

Capacity Under Construction!

Saferay! 30 MW!

Sol de Insurgentes! 28.6!

Grupotec ! 27.5 MW!

Capo/ Iberdrola! 29.8 MW!

Sonora Energy Group! 30 MW!

Leading Installers!

Component Supply!

Enercity ! Solartec !

NuuPower ! Jinko !

Desmex ! Kyocera, Siliken , Panasonic!Source: GTM Research: La#n America PV Playbook

Mexico Pipeline Map!

Brazil: Market Dynamics!

DG

Assessment: Steady growth Drivers: Retail rates; Net-metering Expect/Consider: Rapid learning curve from off-grid to on-grid; Expanded role for financing; Improved customer acquisi@on

State Tenders

Assessment: Rapid growth Drivers: High auc@on clearing prices; PPAs provide certainty Expect/Consider: More states following Pernambuco; Pernambuco con@nue solar auc@ons over next 3 years; More developers entering the space

Na@onal Tenders

Assessment: Low/no growth Drivers: Would require different auc@on structure Expect/Consider: Poten@al to model Pernambuco auc@on structure

Source: GTM Research: La#n America PV Playbook

Brazil: Pipeline and Key Players!

17.2!

332!

122!

1Q14 Brazil Capacity (MW)!

Operational!

Under Construction!

Cleared in State Auction!

Leading Developers!

Operational Capacity!

MPX! 6 MW!

Cemig! 2.6 MW!

Capacity Under Construction!

New Generation Power! 3.3 MW!

Cemig! 1.8!

Tenders in Pernambuco Auction!

Sowitec ! 30 MW!

Sun Premier Holding! 29 MW!

Kroma Energia! 29 MW!

Cone Concierge! 22!

Enel Green Power! 11 MW!

Leading Installers!

SS Solar; SolarTerra; Solar Brazil!Source: GTM Research: La#n America PV Playbook

Chile: Market Dynamics!

PPA

Assessment: Moderate demand, will increase and then plateau Drivers: High marginal power prices; High insola@on levels; Growing demand; PPA predictability

Expect/Consider: Market educa@on needed; Very compe@@ve; Flexible PPAs; Synthe@c PPAs; Off-taker cash flow risk

Merchant

Assessment: Moderate demand, will increase and then plateau Drivers: High marginal power prices; High insola@on; Growing demand Expect/Consider: IDB financing; Ceiling on demand; Synthe@c PPAs; Crea@ve financing structures

Source: GTM Research: La#n America PV Playbook

Chile: Pipeline and Key Players!

Source: GTM Research: La#n America PV Playbook

6.4!

402!

1Q14 Chile Capacity (MW) !

Operational!

Under Construction!

Leading Developers!

Operational Capacity!

E-CL! 2 MW!

SolaireDirect! 1.2 MW!

Juwi! 1.2 MW!

Capacity Under Construction!

Saferay! 135 MW!

SunEdison! 100 MW!

Selray! 31.5 MW!

Solventus! 70 MW!

SolarPack! 25 MW!

Questions? !Contact freedman@gtmresearch.com!

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To learn more about the Latin America PV Playbook, visit: !

http:// www.greentechmedia.com /research/report/ latin-america-pv-playbook!

Thank You!!