Guatemala’s crossroads: Democratization of violence and

second chances 

Speaker: Julie López

 Working Paper Series on Organized Crime in Central America

December 14, 2010

Guatemala’s crossroads: Democratization of violence and second chances

1. NATURE AND ROOTS OF OC IN GUATEMALA

• Genesis of corrupt and criminal structures.• Role of armed conflict Peace Accords change.• Infiltration of State institutions.

2. GUATEMALA AND OC FROM SOUTH TO NORTH AMERICA

• Geography of criminal activity.• Links with criminal activity in Guatemala. • Organization local and foreign of DTOs.

3. CAUSE AND EFFECT OF NEIGHBORING OC ACTIVITY

• Human rights concerns.• Strategies to confront challenges posed by OC. • Political alliances and political will.• Role and relevance of foreign assistance.

4. CONCLUSIONS

Guatemala’s crossroads: Democratization of violence and second chances

1. NATURE AND ROOTS OF OC IN GUATEMALA

• Genesis of corrupt and criminal structures.

Local crime lord, Capo

Foreign OC

network

Local authorities

A B C+ + = OC

• 80s – Colombians• Late 90s – Mexicans

(DTOs)

• 40s – Municipal• 60s – Military, police, customs, immigration.• Late 90s – Police, customs, immigration.

Guatemala’s crossroads: Democratization of violence and second chances

1. NATURE AND ROOTS OF OC IN GUATEMALA• Role of armed conflict Peace Accords change.

• 1960s1960s – Military territorial control

100%.• 1980s: Armed Conflict1980s: Armed Conflict – Military training without quality

control.– First Colombian incursions.

– Free elections. Civilian government.• 1990s: Peace Accords1990s: Peace Accords – Military release national control positions.

– New Police absorbs recycled officers linked to army.– Clandestine intelligence apparatuses are not

dismantled.– Colombian DTOs decline. Mexicans rise.• 2000s2000s

– Last military control posts released.– Police training without quality

control.– Mexican DTOs proliferate.

Guatemala’s crossroads: Democratization of violence and second chances

1. NATURE AND ROOTS OF OC IN GUATEMALA

• Infiltration of State institutions: 15 years of civilian governments.Infiltration vs. “being part of.”

OC and civilian work force. Public office: Appointments & political favors – 1960s. Corruption, ineptitude & organized crime. Weak Civil Service Law. Political parties.

OC infiltrates the army and the police – 1970s Sleepers & moles in military careers – 1980s Weaknesses in police are exploited – 1990s Misusing the military force – 2000s

Guatemala’s crossroads: Democratization of violence and second chances

2. GUATEMALA AND OC FROM SOUTH TO NORTH AMERICA

• Geography of criminal activity.

Illegal immigration & trafficking in persons.Car theft.

Arms trafficking.Money transportation.Kidnapping and extortion.Drug trafficking.

Guatemala’s crossroads: Democratization of violence and second chances

2. GUATEMALA AND OC FROM SOUTH TO NORTH AMERICA

• Links with criminal activity in Guatemala.

Illegal immigration & trafficking in persons

Car theft

Arms trafficking

Kidnapping

Drug trafficking

Gang activity, extortion, small-scale drug distribution.

Guatemala’s crossroads: Democratization of violence and second chances

2. GUATEMALA AND OC FROM SOUTH TO NORTH AMERICA

• Organization local and foreign of DTOs.

• Territory vs. routes.Sinaloa Cartel

Zetas (former Gulf Cartel)

Lorenzana family

Foreign groups

Local main groups

Mendoza family

Leones / España / Javier

Local small groups

Overdick familyTurcios familyRamírez & Ortiz Chamalé

Guatemala’s crossroads: Democratization of violence and second chances

3. CAUSE AND EFFECT OF NEIGHBORING OC ACTIVITY

Human rights concerns:

• Localized policies to fight OC: Colombia & Mexico.

• Increase of OC activity and inadequate responses.

• Abuse of authority: Army & Police.

• Old habits inherited from counterinsurgency.

• Security forces ill-equipped to fight OC.

Guatemala’s crossroads: Democratization of violence and second chances

3. CAUSE AND EFFECT OF NEIGHBORING OC ACTIVITY

Strategies to confront challenges posed by OC:

• Installation of CICIG.

• Police Reform & human rights activist Helen Mack.

• Institutional strengthening in justice system.

• Tax reform.

• Social assistance programs in areas where basic services are scarce.

Guatemala’s crossroads: Democratization of violence and second chances

3. CAUSE AND EFFECT OF NEIGHBORING OC ACTIVITY

Political alliances and political will:

• National Accord for the Advancement of Security and Justice.

• Complexity in reaching consensus in Congress.• Weak political party structure.• Political will: Scope and depth of commitments.• Long-term solutions: Government vs. State

policies.• Liabilities in the proximity of 2011 elections.

Guatemala’s crossroads: Democratization of violence and second chances

3. CAUSE AND EFFECT OF NEIGHBORING OC ACTIVITY

Role and relevance of foreign assistance:

• Merida Plan.• U.S. technical and financial assistance.• Plight for more comprehensive assistance.• Proposals of focusing strongly on Central

America.• Technical assistance from Mexico.• Regional cooperation between U.S., Mexico and

Guatemala.• Roadblocks: Corruption, policies & political will.

Guatemala’s crossroads: Democratization of violence and second chances

4. CONCLUSIONS

• Long-term policies will not be executed without political will.

• Political will cannot be achieved without strengthening the political party system and formation policy.

• Observing and strengthening the Civil Service Law could help reduce corruption levels in State institutions and contribute to curb OC influence.

• Eradicating impunity and practicing fiscal transparency will be achievable in the extent that corruption is reduced.

• As long as the police and the military are misused in terms of their capabilities, Guatemala will be unable to stop the influence and control of OC organizations.