guggenheim securities discussion materialslp.hartenergy.com/rs/433-odk-889/images/1.03 chris...
TRANSCRIPT
BKV Corporation
Discussion Document
February 2021
Virtual A&D Conference
PAGE 2
Executive summary
Cash yield machine from PDP creates optionality for significant reinvestment or dividends
Capital philosophy is to enable a peer leading market pricing response
Our Portfolio Technology & Analytics Business Economics A world class portfolio of
producing gas assets across NEPA and the Barnett basins
Improved acquisitions metrics compared to past performance as well as peer benchmarking
Quantitative analysis drove strategy to build diversification across a multi-basin portfolio of assets
Leveraged modern portfolio theory and the efficient frontier to evaluate optimal risk vs. return
BKV Corporation is a private upstream company focused on acquiring high quality producing natural gas assets
BKV believes that the combination of visionary strategy, relentless focus on execution, and core values in day-to-day life are the keys to creating long-term sustainable value
Our strategy is to become a consolidator of onshore unconventional natural gas plays
PAGE 3
BKV Corp. is already at Top-20 natural gas producer in the U.S.
BKV has Built a Premier US Gas Acquisition Business BKV has invested >$1 billion to acquire a world class portfolio of
producing gas assets in the Marcellus Shale (“NEPA Assets”) and the Barnett Shale (“Barnett Assets”)
Banpu has invested >$1B into BKV and Oaktree ~$100MM with a follow-on commitment of $600MM
With the recent close of Devon’s Barnett Assets makes it the largest producer in the Barnett
Committed to remaining nearly 100% debt-free, with an all-equity capital structure
BKV Corp. is a top 20 natural gas producer in the United States (with ~760 MMcfe/day of production)
BKV’s goals are to: Grow asset base by ~2x-3x within 12-24 months
Focused on building position by acquiring high quality Tier I gas assets
Open to further expansion in adjacent midstream opportunities
Open to further expansion via stock transactions
(1) [Based on H2 2020 figures]
BKV Corporation
NEPA Assets Barnett Assets
Kalnin Ventures
Asset Metrics (1) NEPA Barnett Totals
Production (MMcfe/d) 180 580 760
SEC Reserves (Tcfe) 0.9 2.2 3.2
Producing Wells 395 4,346 4,741
Net Acres 55,000 300,000 355,000
Management/Employees
PAGE 4
Our strategy leverages a differentiated approach
PDP Value Creation Strategy
Focus on PDP Gas Acquisitions
Tier I natural gas-weighted PDP assets offer strong cash flow yields, low decline rates, and low operating costs‒ Acquire accretive assets at discounted prices in today’s dislocated market‒ Target PDP-weighted assets, with low declines (<15%) and de-risked inventories‒ Significant infrastructure in place with ability to maintain production through modest capital which responds to market prices and
executed within cash flow
Operational Torque Strategy to Maximize Value Opportunity to add value post-acquisition through economies of scale with a specific focus on operational, technical, and commercial
optimization‒ Add incremental reserves and production with a focus on achieving lower costs through proven techniques such as compression,
refracs, artificial lift, etc.
Strong Cash Yield with Clear View to a Public Exit Even at today’s prices, low-decline PDP-weighted gas assets are attractive for a yield-oriented public vehicle (BKV 2021E FCFE of
12-15%)‒ Targeting 2023 go-public transaction
World Class On-Shore Unconventional E&P Company -> We want to be a force of good for our country and society
Consolidate Towards Profitable Critical Mass –> Economies of scale drive long-term cost structure
Technology Driven, Marketing Leading in ESG and EHSR -> This is the new normal!
Multi-Basin Gas Weighted Champion -> If we can’t become #1 or #2 in a basin, we won’t pursue it
Strategic Goals of US Gas Investments
PAGE 5
5 6 1142 52
172~200
+102%
BKV Headcount, # of Full-time Equivalents (FTE) as at Year-End
20 43194 188
306
2019E2015 2016 2017 2020*2018 20210
~700
+103%
BKV Corp. has been growing at the rate of at Tech Company with ~100+% CAGR on average (’16-’20)
Productivity ratio:MMcfe/FTE
Average HH price**
0 3.3 3.9 4.6 3.6 1.8 3.5
$2.62 $2.52 $2.99 $3.15 $2.56 $2.03 ???
Market leading growth, market
leading productivity ratios
on par with top decile
performance
* 4Qs of NEPA Production, only 1Q (4Q20) of Barnett production.** Based on U.S. EIA data and average of daily prices for the fiscal year.Source: BKV Internal Data
BKV Annual Production, MMcfe/Day, Net
PAGE 6
BKV has built a world class portfolio of producing gas assets
Barnett Asset Locator Map Barnett Net Production (MMcfe/d)
580
425
333
167 157 154 150 130 124 94 62
NEPA Asset Locator Map NEPA Net Production (MMcfe/d)
LegendBKV NEPA AcreageDesignated NEPA Counties
2,987
2,424
1,5031,057
757494 408 308 180 152 150
PAGE 7
$3,790 $3,750 $3,750
$2,460
$1,729$2,006
$1,124
Chaffee Corners NEPA Corners I NEPA Corners II Zena Energy Carrizo / Reliance Warren Resources Devon Barnett
BKV has been able to improve its acquisitions metrics compared to past performance as well as benchmarked against our peers
BKV Transaction Metrics – Transaction Value / Production ($/Mcfe/d)
BKV Wtd. Avg.$1,445/Mcfe/d
Basin Averages(1)
$2,587/Mcfe/d
BKV Transaction Metrics – Transaction Value / 1P Reserves ($/Mcfe)
$0.43 $0.47 $0.49$0.38
$0.51$0.36
$0.18
Chaffee Corners NEPA Corners I NEPA Corners II Zena Energy Carrizo / Reliance Warren Resources Devon Barnett
BKV Wtd. Avg. $0.25/Mcfe
Basin Averages(1)
$0.84/Mcfe
Devon BarnettTTV: $570MM
(Projected Close: 2H 2020) Announced acquisition of Barnett
assets from Devon Production: 594 MMcfe/d Reserves: 3.2 Tcfe
Chaffee CornersTTV: $112MM
(May 2016) Acquired 29.4% stake in Chaffee
Corner Production: 19 MMcf/d Reserves: 163 Bcf
NEPA Corners ITTV: $63MM
(January 2017) Acquired non-op assets from
Chief Exploration Production: 17 MMcf/d Reserves: 56 Bcf
NEPA Corners IITTV: $16MM(March 2017)
Acquired non-op assets from Tug Hill & Radler
Production: 4 MMcf/d Reserves: 14 Bcf
Zena EnergyTTV: $16MM(May 2017)
Acquired non-op assets from Zena Energy
Production: 7 MMcf/d Reserves: 33 Bcf
Carrizo / RelianceTTV: $210MM(October 2017)
Acquired op. assets from Carrizo / Reliance
Production: 122 MMcf/d Reserves: 414 Bcf
Warren ResourcesTTV: $105MM
(December 2017) Acquired op. assets from Warren
Resources Production: 52 MMcf/d Reserves: 292 Bcf
Source: Enverus. Note: Acquisition metrics at the time of acquisition and includes PDP and PUD; (1) Average Marcellus and Barnett transactions >$50MM with disclosed production since 2016.
PAGE 8
Strategy A was to become an Appalachian basin-master, strategy B was to diversify to a multi-basin focus
STRATEGY B: Single-Basin Strategy
0%
5%
10%
15%
20%
25%
10% 20% 30% 40% 50% 60% 70% 80%
IRR
PUD % (Proxy for Risk)
IRR vs. PUD % at Acquisition(by Portfolio Average)
Appalachia opportunities are primarily PUD-weighted. We anticipate that Appalachian growth would carry a wider array (lower certainty) of returns over time.
STRATEGY B
STRATEGY A: Multi-Basin Strategy
0%
5%
10%
15%
20%
25%
10% 20% 30% 40% 50% 60% 70% 80%
IRR
PUD % (Proxy for Risk)
IRR vs. PUD % at Acquisition(by Portfolio Average)
Gulf Coast opportunities are primarily PDP-weighted. We anticipate that Gulf Coast growth can carry a narrower array (high certainty) of returns over time.
STRATEGY A
CurrentPortfolioAverage
New Strategies
PAGE 9
Strategy A offers superior risk-adjusted returns
Strategy A shows a mean of 26.1% and a standard deviation of 7.2%
Strategy B showed a mean of 27.0% with a standard deviation of 13.3%
PDP vs. PUD Efficient Frontier PDP vs. PUD Return Distribution
Leveraged the modern portfolio theory and the efficient frontier to evaluate optimal risk vs. return trade-offs
This is the “Efficient Frontier” based on Lycoming PDP and PUD portfolio weightings
0.00%
10.00%
20.00%
30.00%
40.00%
50.00%
60.00%
70.00%
0.00% 5.00% 10.00% 15.00% 20.00% 25.00% 30.00%
Unle
vere
d IR
R -5
.0x C
F Ex
it, 5
Year
Hol
d
<--- (More PDP) --------------------- Std. Deviation --------------------- (More PUD) --->
Efficient Frontier (PDP vs. PUD)
Strategy A
Strategy B
Strategy A
Strategy B
PAGE 10
We utilize a big data technology in our valuation process which enables us to reduce uncertainty and make good bets
Production and Decline Rate Analysis and Forecast
1Detailed Economic Diligence and Forecast
2
Analysis of Major Variables and Risks
3Distribution of Returns
4
100%
Net
back
Taxe
s
Hen
ry H
ub
Diff
eren
tial
G&P
CAP
EX
LOE
OC
F
G&A
FCF
Mar
gin
55%38% 33%
5%
31%
10%3%
4%
14%
PAGE 11
Despite COVID-19 pandemic crisis, we still saw a win-win path to a successful close the deal
Identified downside issues: Identified upside issues: Conclusion:
Global economic crisis and we are going to enter a significant global recession that
will not be a short-term phenomenon
Strong belief in the long-term fundamentals of U.S. Gas, and that our
industry will recoverWe needed to restructure the deal
Win-win renegotiation Highly trusted executive and working teams. No egos. Constructive problem solving to seek a win-win solution (Take) Reduction of cash purchase price by $200MM (Give) Develop earn-out structure to earn DVN $260MM (Take) Extension of close-date (Give) Release $70MM deposit from escrow, additional direct deposit of $100MM
Source: March 2020 Barcelona Update
Strong credibility/trust with investors due to track-record and data driven approach
Excellent reputation as an honorable company with a long history of doing deals
Trust
PAGE 12
100%
14%
31%
3%
10%
4%5%
Diff
eren
tial
Hen
ry H
ub
G&P
55%
Net
back
FCF
Mar
gin
Taxe
s
LOE
G&A
CAP
EX
38%
OC
F
33%
Cash yield machine from PDP creates optionality for
significant reinvestment or dividends
The result of that perseverance is a “winning” business model
PAGE 13
1,500
4,500
2,500
500
2,000
3,000
4,000
1,000
3,500
5,000
Dec
-19
Jun-
24
Dec
-25
Jun-
27
Dec
-20
Mm
cfe/
d
Dec
-15
Dec
-27
Jun-
18
Jun-
16
Dec
-16
Jun-
17
Dec
-17
Dec
-18
Dec
-23
Jun-
19
Jun-
20
Jun-
21
Jun-
23
Dec
-21
Jun-
22
Dec
-22
Jun-
25
Dec
-24
Jun-
26
Dec
-26
Jun-
27
Dec
-27
Stage 1:Getting Started
Stage 2:IPO Preparation
Stage 3:IPO & Beyond
Existing Portfolio Future Portfolio
What did we have? Current stage Where will we go?
Great, stable, diversified starting portfolio
Low (no) leverage Cash-flow generating assets
Prepare and position for IPO Prove out our business
model (i.e., rigorous asset and costs optimization) Continue to scale
to ~1-2+ Bcfe/d
A low-leverage, cash-flow generating, gas company at scale is the formula US investors are desiring today.
Our roadmap seeks to continue to grow and scale/consolidate in unconventional natural gas plays