1Risto Kulmala

Guidelines for Evaluation of ITS Projects

Risto Kulmala

VTT Communities and Infrastructure

2Risto Kulmala

Evaluation guidelines

• Pre- and post-evaluation

– Project description

– Impact descriptions

– Socio-economic analyses

• incl. economic feasibility, impact analysis, feasibility assessment

– Summary

3Risto Kulmala

PROJECT DESCRIPTION

* description of project, subprojects, implementability* current status, predictions, problem description* links with larger programmes and objectives* estimated costs

IMPACT DESCRIPTIONS

* transport network and its costs* transport fleet and its costs* accessibility* travel time and its predictability* transport safety* noise, emissions, energy consumption* comfort of use, valuations, image* allocation of impacts to various factors

SOCIO-ECONOMIC ANALYSES

ECONOMIC FEASIBILITY IMPACT ANALYSIS FEASIBILITYASSESSMENT

* costs, benefits, and their allocation* benefit/cost ratio* sensitivity analysis

* impact assessment with regard to transport policy objectives* interpretation of impacts

* financial analysis* acceptability* technical and financial risks* laws and institutional factors

SUMMARY * description of project, subprojects, implementability* current status, predictions, problem description* links with larger programmes and objectives* estimated costs

4Risto Kulmala

1. INFORMATION SERVICES (INF)

2. DEMAND MANAGEMENT (DEM)

4. FLEET AND TRANSPORT MANAGEMENT (F)

5. INCIDENT MANAGEMENT (INC)

6. DRIVER SUPPORT FUNCTIONS (DRI)

7. ENFORCEMENT (E)

8. DATA COLLECTION AND MANAGEMENT (CM)

1. TRANSPORT DEMAND

2. TRAVEL TIMING

3. MODEL CHOICE

6. TRANSPORT SYSTEM MANAGEMENT

1. NETWORK AND ITS COSTS

2. FLEET AND ITS COSTS

3. QUALITY AND ACCESSIBILITY OF SERVICES

5. TRAFFIC SAFETY

6. NOISE, EMISSIONS AND ENERGY

7. VALUATIONS, COMFORT

3. REGIONAL EQUALITY

4. SOCIAL EQUALITY

6. MIN. DISBENEFIT TO ENVIRONMENT

7. MIN. USE OF NATURAL RESOURCES

8. ADAPTATION TO EXISTING SYSTEM

A. TRAFFIC MANAGEMENT OPERATIONS

B. TARGET OF IMPACTS

C. MAIN IMPACTS D. TRANSPORT POLICY OBJECTIVES

3. TRAFFIC CONTROL (C)4. ROUTE CHOICE

5. VEHICLE, TRAFFIC BEHAVIOUR 4. TIME AND ITS

PREDICTABILITY

5. TRAFFIC SAFETY

1. SOCIAL ECONOMY

2. PRIVATE ECONOMY

5. MIN. DISBENEFIT TO PEOPLE

Impacts

5Risto Kulmala

Impacts

TARGET OF IMPACTS MAIN IMPACTS TRANSPORT POLICY OBJECTIVES

No. ITSfunction

Tran

spo

rt de-

ma

nd

Trav

el timin

g

Mo

de ch

oic

e

Ro

ute

ch

oice

Veh

icle, trafficb

ehav

iou

r

Tran

spo

rt sys

-tem

man

.

Netw

ork

an

d its

cos

ts

Fle

et and

itsco

sts

Acc

essib

ility

Tim

e and

its p

re-d

ictability

Traffic safety

No

ise, em

is-

sion

s, energ

y.

Valu

ation

s, com

-fo

rt

So

cialeco

no

my

Priv

ate eco

no

my

Reg

ion

al

equ

ality

So

cial equ

ality

Min

. disb

enefit to

peo

ple

Min

. disb

enefit to

env

i-ron

men

t

Min

. use

of n

atu-

ral resou

rces

Ad

ap. T

oexistin

g sy

stem

3. TRAFFIC CONTROL (C)

C1 Junction & link control usingtraffic signals

C2 Network control using trafficsignals

C3 Traffic signal priority func-tions

C4 Local warnings with variablemessage signs (VMS)

C5 Condition controlled variablespeed limit

C6 Direction to alternative routes

C7 Control of lane use

6Risto Kulmala

Checklists

• Indicators for impacts on– network and its costs– fleet and its costs– accessibility– time and predictability– safety– noise, emissions, energy– valuations and comfort

7Risto Kulmala

Indicators - exampleINDICATOR EVALUATING METHOD

Network utilization (change in vehicle kilome-treage travelled or the use of a particular area)

Traffic counts, field studies

Change in network’s investment or mainte-nance costs

Cost monitoring, project comparison

Change in the time during which traffic demandexceeds network’s capacity

Automatic traffic monitoring

Change in average speed during peak hours Automatic traffic monitoring

Number of incident situations caused by insuf-ficiency of network capacity

Field studies, monitoring of incident situa-tions

Time loss caused by insufficiency of networkcapacity

Field studies, traffic monitoring, monitoringof incident situations

Changes in contents and timing of networkmaintenance measures

Monitoring of maintenance measures, sur-veys

Necessity for and urgency of constructing addi-tional network capacity

Surveys

8Risto Kulmala

Study design

Before After 1 (imme-diate impacts)

After 2 (perma-nent impacts)

Control road section

Study road section

Neighbouring road section

Alternative routes

9Risto Kulmala

Logistical processesP

UR

CH

AS

ING

FO

RW

AR

DIN

G

INS

UR

AN

CE

PA

YM

EN

TT

RA

NS

AC

TIO

NS

CU

ST

OM

S O

PE

RA

TIO

NS

TR

AN

SP

OR

TA

TIO

N

RE

CE

IVIN

G

WA

RE

HO

US

ING

PR

OD

UC

TIO

N

SH

IPP

ING

RE

CY

CL

ING

SA

LE

S

SE

CO

ND

AR

Y M

AR

KE

TIN

G

MA

RK

ET

ING

ORDER / DELIVERY PROCESS

10Risto Kulmala

IMPACT ANALYSESIMPACT ANALYSES

FEASIBILITY ASSESSMENT

QUALITATIVE IMPACTS

Availability

Lead time

Delivery accuracy

Flexibility of delivery time

Flexibility of mode of delivery

Reliability of delivery (amount and quality)

Delivery control

IMPACTS ON PUBLIC ECONOMY

FUNCTION ANALYSISFUNCTION ANALYSIS

ORDER/DELIVERY PROCESS ANALYSISORDER/DELIVERY PROCESS ANALYSIS

DETAILS OF FINANCIAL

STATEMENTS

ECONOMIC IMPACTS

Net sales

Variable costs

Fixed costs

Depreciation

Fixed assets

Current assets

Financial assets

ECONOMIC AND QUALITATIVE IMPACTS ON OTHER EVALUATION TARGETS

IMPACTS PROCESSED BY THE DU PONT MODEL

YHTALI

INDIRECT ECONOMIC IMPACTS

11Risto Kulmala

% * 100DIVIDED

Operating profit before depreciation

Operating profit before depreciation

Gross profit

Gross profit Net salesNet sales

Fixed assets

Fixed assets

Variable costs

Variable costs

Fixed costs

Fixed costs

Current assets

Current assets

Depre-ciation

Depre-ciation

Financial assets

Financial assets

Operating profit

Operating profit

Net salesNet sales

Net salesNet sales

Total equity

Total equity

Profit percentage

Profit percentage

Retum of capital

Retum of capital

Capital turnover

Capital turnover

AmountPriceSales termsDelivery costsQualityService

Machinery and equipments

BuildingsBuilding lots

and land Investments

Acquisition InventoryTransportRents InsuranceLeasing costsDevelopmentMarketingManagement

MaterialsPersonnel costsSuppliesToolsWasteSupervisionMaintenanceQuality control

Primary goodsSubstitute partsFitmentSemi-manu-

factured goodsGoods in

production

LandBuildingsMachinery and

equipmentSecurities

Trade receivablesLoan receivablesCash assetsDepositsAdvance

receivables

–MINUS

–MINUS

–MINUS

+PLUS

+PLUS%

DIVIDED

XTIMES

12Risto Kulmala

Socio-economic analyses

• Profitability analysis

– Private economy

– Cost-benefit analysis

– Multicriteria analysis

• Impact analysis

• Feasibility analysis

13Risto Kulmala

Feasibility analysis

• Market assessment

• Technical feasibility

• Technical evaluation

• Financial issues

• Legal issues

• Institutional issues

14Risto Kulmala

Checklists - exampleEVALUATION OF TECHNICAL FEASIBILITY

Matter under examination Example

Availability and developmental stage ofnecessary technology

Do sufficiently reliable sensors exist andare more developed models currentlycoming on the market

Dependence on other systems Does the project call for the implementa-tion of other projects or can it be inde-pendently implemented

Implementation in phases Can a pilot project be implemented first aspart of the overall system

Risks associated with technical solution Compatibility of equipment from differentequipment vendors

Risks associated with commitment Does the implementation bind the opera-tor to a specific system vendor

Compatibility and common system archi-tecture

Interchangeability of subsystems and theneed and possibility to rely on standards

15Risto Kulmala

Example evaluations

• Traffic and road weather monitoring system

• Port operations management system

• Signal priorities for buses

16Risto Kulmala

Use of results

• Product and system enhancement

– System provider

• Marketing

• New innovations

– R&D organisations

– Industry

• R&D needs

17Risto Kulmala

Use of results

• Decisions on deployment

– Road authorities

– Cities, regions

– Companies

• Deployment strategies

– System providers

– Authorities, DOTs

18Risto Kulmala

Conclusions

• Guidelines are being used

• First results are promising

• Need to develop further

– changes in policy

– changes in project evaluation

– methods to assess the profitability of ITS systems