gustafsson/ nordic alcohol and drug researchers' assembly iceland 2010 alcohol policy in...

Gustafsson / Nordic Alcohol and Drug Researchers' Assembly ICELAND 2010

Alcohol policy in transition and diverging alcohol patterns

Nina-Katri Gustafsson

Gustafsson / Nordic Alcohol and Drug Researchers' Assembly 2010

Context

• Weakening of the Swedish alcohol policy

• Availability: quota changes 2002, 2003, 2004

• Price changes: Danish spirits tax decrease 2003

• Southern Sweden

• Expectations: increasing consumption and alcohol-related problem rates in southern parts


The four studies

•Private imports to Sweden (self-reported)

•Consumption (self-reported)

•Social alcohol-related problems (self-reported)

•Alcohol-related harms (police and hospital registers)


Private ImportsAIM: Did the increase in quotas January 2002, 2003, 2004 affect private imports?

DATA: Survey data on private imports (self-reported)

METHOD: Comparing quarters and annual numbers

Sweden divided by three regions

Import by beverage

RESULTS:

-Largest change, largest effect

-South more affected than northern or mid Sweden

-Largest effect in spirits

-Effects declining over the year


Self-reported Consumption

AIM: Did self-reported consumption increase in Southern Sweden?

DATA: Survey data on self-reported consumption 03-06

METHOD: Northern Sweden was used as a control

RESULTS:

-No large changes

-Where significant, usually in unexpected direction (S/N)

-Spirits did not increase more than other beverages


Self-reported problems

AIM: Did self-reported problems increase in Southern Sweden?

DATA: Survey data self-reported problems 03-06

METHOD: Problems mainly reported by two indexes

Northern Sweden was used as a control

RESULTS:

-Overall followed consumption, but even less changes


Harms by register data

AIM: Did the increase in quotas and Danish tax change affect harms as reported by registers in southern Sweden?

DATA: Hospital data on alcohol-poisoning cases

Police-reported assults and drunk-driving cases

METHOD: Time-series analysis

Controling for two earlier quota changes (2002, 2003) and harms in northern Sweden

RESULTS:

-Alcohol poisonings incresed in souhern Sweden,

sign. change in age group 50-69 years old


Summary of the Results

Southern Sweden

•Private imports increased

•Self-reported total consumption and alcohol-related problems did not increase

•Alcohol-poisonings increased but not other harms

Northern Sweden

•Private imports or harms did not increase

•Self-reported total consumption and alcohol-related problems increased


Explaining results/Discussion

Southern Sweden

•Saturation?

•”Charm of novelty” effect, change in another country

•Changes in drinking patterns?

•Affecting various groups differently? (heavy cons.)

Northern Sweden

•Lagging behind the former increases in the south?


Research for the future

• What has been happining in the northern site? Longer overall change or demographical explanations?

•Could consumption groups explain who changes?

Were heavy consumers more likely to change?


Thank you for listening!

Reference: Gustafsson N-K (2010) Bridging the World: Alcohol Policy and Diverging Alcohol Patterns in Sweden. Dissertation in Sociology. Stockholm: Department of Sociology, SU. (Parts co-authored with Mats Ramstedt.)

Contact: [email protected]

gustafsson/ nordic alcohol and drug researchers' assembly iceland 2010 alcohol policy in...

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