Guy CarusoAdministrator

Energy Information Administration

Washington, DCJune 20, 2006

International Energy Outlook 2006

with Projections to 2030

International Energy Outlook 2006 - Summary

• Worldwide marketed energy consumption is projected to grow by 71 percent between 2003 and 2030. Highest growth projected for the developing countries.

• World oil prices are 35 percent higher in 2025 than in last year’s IEO. Higher prices dampen growth in world oil demand, which is 8 million barrels per day lower in 2025 than in IEO2005.

• World unconventional production (including oil sands, bitumen, biofuels, coal-to-liquids, and gas-to-liquids) accounts for 25 percent of the projected total world liquids supply increase.

• Higher oil prices increase the competitiveness of coal and natural gas, which grow by 2.5 and 2.4 percent per year, respectively.

• Higher fossil fuel prices and concerns about security of energy supplies improve the prospects for nuclear power and renewables over the projection period.

• Energy-related carbon dioxide emissions are projected to rise from 25.0 billion metric tons in 2003 to 33.7 billion metric tons in 2015 and 43.7 billion metric tons in 2030.

World Energy Consumption by Region, 2003-2030

0

50

100

150

200

250

300

350

400

450

2003 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030

Qua

drill

ion

Btu

Source: EIA, IEO2006

Non-OECDOECD

Energy Intensity by Country Grouping, 1980-2030

0

5

10

15

20

25

1980 1990 2000 2010 2020 2030

Tho

usan

d B

tu p

er 2

000

Dol

lar

of G

DP

OECD

History Projections

Non-OECD Europe andEurasia

Other Non-OECD

Source: EIA, IEO2006

IEO2006 vs. IEO2005: World Oil Prices

0

10

20

30

40

50

60

70

80

1980 1990 2000 2010 2020 2030

2004

Dol

lars

per

Bar

rel

IEO2006

History Projections

IEO2005

Source: EIA, IEO2006

0

50

100

150

200

250

300

1980 1985 1990 1995 2000 2005 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030

Qu

ad

rilli

on

Btu

World Marketed Energy Use by Fuel Type, 1980-2030

Oil

Natural Gas

Coal

33%

27%

9%Renewables

Nuclear

26%

5%

Share of WorldTotal

History Projections

38%

24%

24%

8%

6%

Source: EIA, IEO2006

Forecast Comparisons in 2025: IEO2006 vs. IEO2005

224

173

177

34

58

665

243

162

156

34

49

645

162

99

100

27

33

421

0 100 200 300 400 500 600 700

Oil

Natural Gas

Coal

Nuclear

Renewables

Total

Quadrillion BtuSource: EIA, IEO2006

IEO2006

2003

IEO2005

Worldwide Liquids Production

0

20

40

60

80

100

120

140

2003 2008 2013 2018 2023 2028

Mill

ion

Bar

rels

per

Day

Non-OPEC

OPEC

UnconventionalUnconventional

Source: EIA, IEO2006

OPEC Liquids Production: IEO2005 and IEO2006

29

38

41

47

53

2931

3740 40

4345

0

10

20

30

40

50

60

2002 2003 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030

Mill

ion

Bar

rels

per

Day

IEO2006IEO2005

Source: EIA, IEO2006

Worldwide Unconventional Production, 2005 and 2030

1.0

0.5

0.00.2

0.7

0.0

3.6

1.7

2.1 2.1 2.1

0.1

0

1

2

3

4

Oil Sands UltraHeavy

Gas toLiquids

Coal toLiquids

Biofuels Shale Oil

Mill

ion

Bar

rels

per

Day 2030

2005

Source: EIA, IEO2006

World Natural Gas Consumption, 2003-2030

50

56

6367

7174

45

60

72

83

95

108

0

20

40

60

80

100

120

2003 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030

Tril

lion

Cub

ic F

eet

Non-OECD

OECD

Source: EIA, IEO2006

World Coal Consumption, 2003-2030

0

1

2

3

4

5

6

7

8

2003 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030

Bill

ion

Sho

rt T

ons

Non-OECD

OECD

Source: EIA, IEO2006

Net Electricity Consumption, 2003-2030

0

2,000

4,000

6,000

8,000

10,000

12,000

14,000

16,000

18,000

2003 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030

Bill

ion

Kilo

wat

thou

rs

Non-OECDOECD

Source: EIA, IEO2006

World Nuclear Power Generation, 2003-2030

2,1352,234

2,294 2,320 2,304 2,307

388505

647

802

929993

0

500

1,000

1,500

2,000

2,500

2003 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030

Bill

ion

Kilo

wat

thou

rs

Non-OECDOECD

Source: EIA, IEO2006

World Renewable Energy Use, 2003-2030

17

22 2224

2526

15

24

27

30

33

37

0

5

10

15

20

25

30

35

40

2003 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030

Qua

drill

ion

Btu

Non-OECDOECD

Source: EIA, IEO2006

World Carbon Dioxide Emissions by Region, 2003-2030

1314

1516

1717

12

16

19

21

24

26

0

5

10

15

20

25

30

2003 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030

Bill

ion

Met

ric T

ons

Non-OECDOECD

Source: EIA, IEO2006

World Carbon Dioxide Emissions by Fuel Type

0

10

20

30

40

50

1980 1985 1990 1995 2000 2005 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030

Bill

ion

Met

ric T

ons

Oil

Natural Gas

Total

History Projections

Coal

Source: EIA, IEO2006

Major Trends in the IEO2006 Outlook

• Total world energy use is about 21 quadrillion Btu higher (3 percent) in 2025 than in last year’s report.

• High world oil prices result in lower growth in oil demand; coal, natural gas, and renewables all increase relative to IEO2005.

• Coal and natural gas are the fastest growing energy sources worldwide - increasing by 2.5 and 2.4 percent per year, respectively.

• Energy use in the non-OECD exceeds energy use in the OECD by 2015; by 2030 non-OECD energy use is 34 percent higher than in the OECD.

• China’s energy consumption is 5 quadrillion Btu higher than the U.S. by 2030 (IEO2006 reference case).

• Carbon dioxide emissions are 1.3 billion metric tons higher than in last year’s forecast in 2025.

Guy F. Caruso

guy.caruso@eia.doe.gov

Periodic Reports

Petroleum Status and Natural Gas Storage Reports, weekly

Short-Term Energy Outlook, monthly

Annual Energy Outlook 2006, February 2006

International Energy Outlook 2006, June 2006

Examples of Special Analyses

“Economic Effects of High Oil Prices,” Annual Energy Outlook 2006

Analysis of Oil and Gas Production in the Arctic National Wildlife Refuge,

March 2004

The Global Liquefied Natural Gas Market: Status and Outlook, Dec 2003

“Restricted Natural Gas Supply Case,” Annual Energy Outlook 2005

www.eia.doe.gov