gwinnett county real estate market report 9 08

© 2008 Lane BaileyGarageHomesUSA.com

Gwinnett County Real Gwinnett County Real Estate Market ReportEstate Market Report

SeptemberSeptemberJuly- August 2008July- August 2008


July Numbers - UpdatedJuly Numbers - Updated

• 2130 New Listings2130 New Listings

• 710 Sold Listings710 Sold Listings

• 741 Listings Pending741 Listings Pending

• Average 86 Days on Market Average 86 Days on Market for Sold Listingsfor Sold Listings


July Numbers - UpdatedJuly Numbers - Updated

*Listings Pending may have closed in *Listings Pending may have closed in June, may have closed in July, may June, may have closed in July, may close in some other month, or may close in some other month, or may fail to close. But, there IS overlap with fail to close. But, there IS overlap with Sold Listings.Sold Listings.


August Numbers - PreliminaryAugust Numbers - Preliminary

• 1850 New Listings1850 New Listings

• 326 Sold Listings326 Sold Listings

• 638 Listings Pending638 Listings Pending

• Average 95 Days on Market Average 95 Days on Market for Sold Listingsfor Sold Listings


August Numbers - PreliminaryAugust Numbers - Preliminary

*While all of these numbers are subject *While all of these numbers are subject to revision next month, the Sold to revision next month, the Sold Listings tend to have the most radical Listings tend to have the most radical revision. I am estimating 700 closed revision. I am estimating 700 closed sales for July.sales for July.


Days on Market (DoM)Days on Market (DoM)

DoM

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20

40

60

80

100

120

6-Sep

6-Oct

6-Nov

6-Dec

7-Jan

7-Feb

7-Mar

7-Apr

7-May

7-Jun

7-Jul 7-Aug

7-Sep

7-Oct

7-Nov

7-Dec

8-Jan

8-Feb

8-Mar

8-Apr

8-May

8-Jun

8-Jul 8-Aug

Date

Days


ConclusionsConclusions

• Days on Market usually drop in April, May Days on Market usually drop in April, May and June. I expected to see mid-90 DoM and June. I expected to see mid-90 DoM for May (at 96), June (at 90), and July for May (at 96), June (at 90), and July came in at 86.came in at 86.

• Preliminary for August is 95. A drop in the Preliminary for August is 95. A drop in the final numbers would be nice. We saw July final numbers would be nice. We saw July drop 6 days from prelim to final.drop 6 days from prelim to final.

• I’d look for a low 90s in Sept. as a strong I’d look for a low 90s in Sept. as a strong sign.sign.


New, Pending & Sold ListingsNew, Pending & Sold Listings

New, Pending, Sold

0

500

1000

1500

2000

2500

3000

3500

6-Sep

6-Oct

6-Nov

6-Dec

7-Jan 7-Feb

7-Mar

7-Apr 7-May

7-Jun 7-Jul 7-Aug

7-Sep

7-Oct

7-Nov

7-Dec

8-Jan 8-Feb

8-Mar

8-Apr 8-May

8-Jun 8-Jul 8-Aug

Date

Vo

lum

e

New Pending Sold



• I expect to see August Sales come in I expect to see August Sales come in around 650 units. I was 10 low for around 650 units. I was 10 low for June…June…

• Last month I was looking for New Last month I was looking for New Listings under 1900, and the prelims Listings under 1900, and the prelims are 1850. are 1850.

• I’d like to be under 1750 for Sept.I’d like to be under 1750 for Sept.


July Absorption RatesJuly Absorption Rates

9806 Listings on the market in Gwinnett 9806 Listings on the market in Gwinnett County at the end of April, and sales County at the end of April, and sales averaged over 12, 6 and 3 month periods.averaged over 12, 6 and 3 month periods.

• 12 month average: 15.2 months inventory12 month average: 15.2 months inventory




August Absorption RatesAugust Absorption Rates

9534 Listings on the market in Gwinnett 9534 Listings on the market in Gwinnett County at the end of August, and sales County at the end of August, and sales averaged over 12, 6 and 3 month periods.averaged over 12, 6 and 3 month periods.






• August numbers aren’t final, but they are August numbers aren’t final, but they are probably going to show a seasonal probably going to show a seasonal weakening of the market.weakening of the market.

• Last month I was calling for July to end up Last month I was calling for July to end up under 13.5 months supply, and it came in under 13.5 months supply, and it came in at 13.2. I’m looking for 14 months in at 13.2. I’m looking for 14 months in August after the final numbers come in.August after the final numbers come in.

• There is still a long way to go. 6 months of There is still a long way to go. 6 months of supply is considered balanced. supply is considered balanced.


New/Sold RatioNew/Sold Ratio

This ratio compares new listings This ratio compares new listings and sold listings for a given and sold listings for a given month. It is useful to sellers in month. It is useful to sellers in determining a pricing strategy.determining a pricing strategy.



• In July, 33% as many homes sold as In July, 33% as many homes sold as were listed during the month. This were listed during the month. This means that on average, for each 3 means that on average, for each 3 homes that were put up for sale, 1 homes that were put up for sale, 1 sold.sold.

• In August, early numbers point to In August, early numbers point to 18% (1:5), but I expect to see that 18% (1:5), but I expect to see that upgrade to 35% for the final numbers.upgrade to 35% for the final numbers.



New/Sold Ratio

0

5

10

15

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25

30

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40

45

Aug Sept Oct Nov Dec Jan Feb March April May June July August

Date

% V

alu

e


ConclusionConclusion

• The weakness of the N/S% shows The weakness of the N/S% shows that few homes are priced attractively that few homes are priced attractively to Buyers.to Buyers.

• This number tops around 67%This number tops around 67%• Anything under 33% is very weak.Anything under 33% is very weak.• Look for the mid 30s this summer.Look for the mid 30s this summer.• The latest month is always suspect, The latest month is always suspect,

as the final numbers are never the as the final numbers are never the same as preliminary.same as preliminary.


Average Sales PriceAverage Sales Price

• July - $220,446 Down 9.6% from July - $220,446 Down 9.6% from July, 2007July, 2007

• August - $219,110 Down 11.1% August - $219,110 Down 11.1% from August 2007from August 2007


Average Sales PriceAverage Sales Price

Average prices may be volatile, Average prices may be volatile, affected by strong or weak sales affected by strong or weak sales of homes priced in particular of homes priced in particular ranges.ranges.

This number doesn’t really give an This number doesn’t really give an indication of market direction indication of market direction except in the broadest sense.except in the broadest sense.


List Price/Sales Price RatioList Price/Sales Price Ratio• July – 95.25%July – 95.25%• August – 95.72%August – 95.72%Over the last few years Sale Prices Over the last few years Sale Prices

generally held between 97% and generally held between 97% and 98.5% of List, although there have 98.5% of List, although there have been some dips into the high 96% been some dips into the high 96% range in the last few months.range in the last few months.

Honestly, though, this isn’t a huge Honestly, though, this isn’t a huge indicator of the market. indicator of the market.


ConclusionConclusion

• List/Sale Price % gives an List/Sale Price % gives an indication of Buyer strength. indication of Buyer strength.

• It also shows whether Sellers are It also shows whether Sellers are being realistic with pricing.being realistic with pricing.

• The indications are also very The indications are also very general.general.


Overall Conclusion

• While I always expect to see seasonal increases this While I always expect to see seasonal increases this time of year, the numbers are fairly strong. Yet, August time of year, the numbers are fairly strong. Yet, August prelims are looking a little weaker than I’d like.prelims are looking a little weaker than I’d like.

• Last year I was calling for a 2Last year I was calling for a 2ndnd Quarter recovery in Quarter recovery in Gwinnett, but we need to see how Fall goes to know if Gwinnett, but we need to see how Fall goes to know if there is recovery or just positive seasonality.there is recovery or just positive seasonality.

• There are some great deals, and there are some dogs. There are some great deals, and there are some dogs. The key is finding the right deals.The key is finding the right deals.

• Keeping perspective, sales are cyclical. This is a good Keeping perspective, sales are cyclical. This is a good time for investment… not a great time to sell without a time for investment… not a great time to sell without a strategy.strategy.

gwinnett county real estate market report 9 08

Business

average sales

sales averaged

sold ratio

final numbers

sold listings

0 months inventory

2 months inventory

12 month average