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Page 1: h t| @?Lfaculty.wcas.northwestern.edu/~lchrist/362/c062001/lect12.pdf · h t| @?L ... e i_

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Fig. 1: Nominal US exchange rate and current accountTrade Weighted Exchange Rate (right scale), CA/GDP (left scale)

79 80 81 82 83 84 85 86 87 88 89-0.0100

-0.0075

-0.0050

-0.0025

0.0000

0.0025

80

90

100

110

120

130

140

150

160

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1985 1986 1987 1988 1989 1990 1991 1992 1993 1994 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 20002000

1900

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9/17

KOREAN WON / US DOLLAR(inverted scale)

yardeni.com

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78 79 80 81 82 83 84 85 86 87 88 89 90 91 92 93 94 95 96 97 98 99 00 01 02-30

-20

-10

0

10

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30

40

-30

-20

-10

0

10

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40

Q1TRADE BALANCE: KOREA(4-quarter sum, billions of US dollars)

Source: IMF International Financial Statistics

yardeni.com

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1985 1986 1987 1988 1989 1990 1991 1992 1993 1994 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 200016000

15000

14000

13000

12000

11000

10000

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0

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0

9/17

INDONESIAN RUPIAH / US DOLLAR (inverted scale)

yardeni.com

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82 83 84 85 86 87 88 89 90 91 92 93 94 95 96 97 98 99 00 01 022

4

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Q4

TRADE BALANCE: INDONESIA(4-quarter sum, billions of US dollars)

Source: IMF International Financial Statistics.

yardeni.com

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1985 1986 1987 1988 1989 1990 1991 1992 1993 1994 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 20004.8

4.6

4.4

4.2

4.0

3.8

3.6

3.4

3.2

3.0

2.8

2.6

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2.2

4.8

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4.0

3.8

3.6

3.4

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3.0

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2.4

2.2

9/17

MALAYSIAN RINGGIT / US DOLLAR(inverted scale)

yardeni.com

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71 72 73 74 75 76 77 78 79 80 81 82 83 84 85 86 87 88 89 90 91 92 93 94 95 96 97 98 99 00 01 02-5

0

5

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Q4

TRADE BALANCE: MALAYSIA(4-quarter sum, billions of US dollars)

* Source: IMF International Financial Statistics.

yardeni.com

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1985 1986 1987 1988 1989 1990 1991 1992 1993 1994 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 200056

54

52

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THAI BAHT / US DOLLAR(inverted scale)

yardeni.com

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78 79 80 81 82 83 84 85 86 87 88 89 90 91 92 93 94 95 96 97 98 99 00 01 02-20

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Q1

TRADE BALANCE: THAILAND(4-quarter sum, billion dollars)

Source: IMF International Financial Statistics.

yardeni.com

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1985 1986 1987 1988 1989 1990 1991 1992 1993 1994 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 200012

10

8

6

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2

0

-2

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-2

9/17

MEXICAN PESO / US DOLLAR(inverted scale)

yardeni.com

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80 81 82 83 84 85 86 87 88 89 90 91 92 93 94 95 96 97 98 99 00 01 02-30

-20

-10

0

10

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-30

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-10

0

10

20

Q1

TRADE BALANCE: MEXICO(4-quarter sum, billions of US dollars)

Source: IMF International Financial Statistics.

yardeni.com

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Fig 8: Short Term US Interest Rate and RecessionsFirst vertical bar: start of recession, second: end of recession

54 58 62 66 70 74 78 82 86 90 94 980

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