h t| @?lfaculty.wcas.northwestern.edu/~lchrist/362/c062001/lect12.pdf · h t| @?l ... e i_
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Fig. 1: Nominal US exchange rate and current accountTrade Weighted Exchange Rate (right scale), CA/GDP (left scale)
79 80 81 82 83 84 85 86 87 88 89-0.0100
-0.0075
-0.0050
-0.0025
0.0000
0.0025
80
90
100
110
120
130
140
150
160
1985 1986 1987 1988 1989 1990 1991 1992 1993 1994 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 20002000
1900
1800
1700
1600
1500
1400
1300
1200
1100
1000
900
800
700
600
2000
1900
1800
1700
1600
1500
1400
1300
1200
1100
1000
900
800
700
600
9/17
KOREAN WON / US DOLLAR(inverted scale)
yardeni.com
78 79 80 81 82 83 84 85 86 87 88 89 90 91 92 93 94 95 96 97 98 99 00 01 02-30
-20
-10
0
10
20
30
40
-30
-20
-10
0
10
20
30
40
Q1TRADE BALANCE: KOREA(4-quarter sum, billions of US dollars)
Source: IMF International Financial Statistics
yardeni.com
1985 1986 1987 1988 1989 1990 1991 1992 1993 1994 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 200016000
15000
14000
13000
12000
11000
10000
9000
8000
7000
6000
5000
4000
3000
2000
1000
0
16000
15000
14000
13000
12000
11000
10000
9000
8000
7000
6000
5000
4000
3000
2000
1000
0
9/17
INDONESIAN RUPIAH / US DOLLAR (inverted scale)
yardeni.com
82 83 84 85 86 87 88 89 90 91 92 93 94 95 96 97 98 99 00 01 022
4
6
8
10
12
14
16
18
20
22
24
2
4
6
8
10
12
14
16
18
20
22
24
Q4
TRADE BALANCE: INDONESIA(4-quarter sum, billions of US dollars)
Source: IMF International Financial Statistics.
yardeni.com
1985 1986 1987 1988 1989 1990 1991 1992 1993 1994 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 20004.8
4.6
4.4
4.2
4.0
3.8
3.6
3.4
3.2
3.0
2.8
2.6
2.4
2.2
4.8
4.6
4.4
4.2
4.0
3.8
3.6
3.4
3.2
3.0
2.8
2.6
2.4
2.2
9/17
MALAYSIAN RINGGIT / US DOLLAR(inverted scale)
yardeni.com
71 72 73 74 75 76 77 78 79 80 81 82 83 84 85 86 87 88 89 90 91 92 93 94 95 96 97 98 99 00 01 02-5
0
5
10
15
20
-5
0
5
10
15
20
Q4
TRADE BALANCE: MALAYSIA(4-quarter sum, billions of US dollars)
* Source: IMF International Financial Statistics.
yardeni.com
1985 1986 1987 1988 1989 1990 1991 1992 1993 1994 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 200056
54
52
50
48
46
44
42
40
38
36
34
32
30
28
26
24
22
56
54
52
50
48
46
44
42
40
38
36
34
32
30
28
26
24
22
9/17
THAI BAHT / US DOLLAR(inverted scale)
yardeni.com
78 79 80 81 82 83 84 85 86 87 88 89 90 91 92 93 94 95 96 97 98 99 00 01 02-20
-15
-10
-5
0
5
10
15
-20
-15
-10
-5
0
5
10
15
Q1
TRADE BALANCE: THAILAND(4-quarter sum, billion dollars)
Source: IMF International Financial Statistics.
yardeni.com
1985 1986 1987 1988 1989 1990 1991 1992 1993 1994 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 200012
10
8
6
4
2
0
-2
12
10
8
6
4
2
0
-2
9/17
MEXICAN PESO / US DOLLAR(inverted scale)
yardeni.com
80 81 82 83 84 85 86 87 88 89 90 91 92 93 94 95 96 97 98 99 00 01 02-30
-20
-10
0
10
20
-30
-20
-10
0
10
20
Q1
TRADE BALANCE: MEXICO(4-quarter sum, billions of US dollars)
Source: IMF International Financial Statistics.
yardeni.com
Fig 8: Short Term US Interest Rate and RecessionsFirst vertical bar: start of recession, second: end of recession
54 58 62 66 70 74 78 82 86 90 94 980
2
4
6
8
10
12
14
16
18