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KIT – The Research University in the Helmholtz Association www.kit.edu Institute of Meteorology and Climate Research – Troposphere Research (IMK-TRO) Hail hazard and risk assessment in Europe and the relation to orographic & atmospheric characteristics Michael Kunz, Heinz Jürgen Punge, Elody Fluck, Manuel Schmidberger, Susanna Mohr, David Piper, and Marc Puskeiler

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Page 1: Hail hazard and risk assessment in Europe and the relation ...tippett/SCC2/Presentations/Day 1/Session 1/01.kunz_severe...Max{HSS} = 0.61 . Max{HSS} = 0.71 3D: vertical extent 9th

KIT – The Research University in the Helmholtz Association www.kit.edu

Institute of Meteorology and Climate Research – Troposphere Research (IMK-TRO)

Hail hazard and risk assessment in Europe and the relation to orographic & atmospheric characteristics Michael Kunz, Heinz Jürgen Punge, Elody Fluck, Manuel Schmidberger, Susanna Mohr, David Piper, and Marc Puskeiler

Page 2: Hail hazard and risk assessment in Europe and the relation ...tippett/SCC2/Presentations/Day 1/Session 1/01.kunz_severe...Max{HSS} = 0.61 . Max{HSS} = 0.71 3D: vertical extent 9th

2016 Severe Convection and Climate Workshop

Severe hailstorms 2013: Andreas Radar composite (radars IMK + DWD, cell tracking TRACE3D) 28 July 2013

triggering

supercell formation by cold pool of single cell

Lon (°)

Lat (

°)

heig

ht

Hail hazard and risk assessment [email protected] 9th March 2016

Page 3: Hail hazard and risk assessment in Europe and the relation ...tippett/SCC2/Presentations/Day 1/Session 1/01.kunz_severe...Max{HSS} = 0.61 . Max{HSS} = 0.71 3D: vertical extent 9th

2016 Severe Convection and Climate Workshop

Severe hailstorms 2013 Germany

2-4 cm 6-7 cm > 8 cm

27 July 28 July

Data:

6 August

Hannover Wolfsburg

Stuttgart

Hail hazard and risk assessment [email protected] 9th March 2016

© Marco Kaschuba

14 cm

Total loss: $ 4.6 bn insured loss 27/28 July: $ 3.1 bn

(Swiss Re, 2014)

Page 4: Hail hazard and risk assessment in Europe and the relation ...tippett/SCC2/Presentations/Day 1/Session 1/01.kunz_severe...Max{HSS} = 0.61 . Max{HSS} = 0.71 3D: vertical extent 9th

2016 Severe Convection and Climate Workshop

Questions…

Regional-scale hail frequency?

Reasons for the spatial distribution?

Long-term variability of hail potential?

Hail hazard and risk assessment [email protected] 9th March 2016

Page 5: Hail hazard and risk assessment in Europe and the relation ...tippett/SCC2/Presentations/Day 1/Session 1/01.kunz_severe...Max{HSS} = 0.61 . Max{HSS} = 0.71 3D: vertical extent 9th

2016 Severe Convection and Climate Workshop

Hail growth within convective clouds

Condensation process by cloud condensation nuclei CCN

Nucleation by IN: ice crystal

hailstone formation by fast riming

Riming by accretion of supercooled droplets: hail embryos (graupel, frozen drop)

(Straka, 2009; Pruppacher and Klett, 2010; Houze, 2014)

Hail hazard and risk assessment [email protected] 9th March 2016

condensation

collision- coalescence Raindrops

nucleation/ freezing

accretion

rapid accretion

-37°C

cloud- base

embryo formation

hail formation

0°C

Page 6: Hail hazard and risk assessment in Europe and the relation ...tippett/SCC2/Presentations/Day 1/Session 1/01.kunz_severe...Max{HSS} = 0.61 . Max{HSS} = 0.71 3D: vertical extent 9th

2016 Severe Convection and Climate Workshop

-37°C

cloud- base

Hail growth within convective clouds

embryo formation

hail formation

(Straka, 2009; Pruppacher und Klett, 2010; Houze, 2014)

Hail hazard and risk assessment [email protected] 9th March 2016

0°C

Hailstreaks: small extent (∅: 40 km²; Changnon, 1970)

⇒ surface stations not sufficient for monitoring Proxies for hail detection: - radar reflectivity - overshooting top

Page 7: Hail hazard and risk assessment in Europe and the relation ...tippett/SCC2/Presentations/Day 1/Session 1/01.kunz_severe...Max{HSS} = 0.61 . Max{HSS} = 0.71 3D: vertical extent 9th

2016 Severe Convection and Climate Workshop

Hail proxy: Overshooting tops OTs: intrusions of convective cloud to lower stratosphere Indicator of very strong convective updrafts

Hail hazard and risk assessment [email protected] 9th March 2016

Combination Satellite (MSG SEVIRI) and Reanalysis (ERA-Interim)

2004 – 2014

Events per year and 100 km²

Page 8: Hail hazard and risk assessment in Europe and the relation ...tippett/SCC2/Presentations/Day 1/Session 1/01.kunz_severe...Max{HSS} = 0.61 . Max{HSS} = 0.71 3D: vertical extent 9th

2016 Severe Convection and Climate Workshop

v

v

Hail hazard and risk assessment [email protected] 9th March 2016

Hail proxy: Radar reflectivity Radar: high spatial / temporal resolution, available for several European countries Dual-pol only over recent years

number density

Methods:

Maximum reflectivity

Vertical extent (Waldvogel et al., 1978)

Cell tracking (TRACE3D), advection correction

Clutter correction (lightning), calibration (insurance)

Page 9: Hail hazard and risk assessment in Europe and the relation ...tippett/SCC2/Presentations/Day 1/Session 1/01.kunz_severe...Max{HSS} = 0.61 . Max{HSS} = 0.71 3D: vertical extent 9th

2016 Severe Convection and Climate Workshop

Hail detection radar vs damage data Calibration: categorical verification with skill scores Building insurance data;summer half-year 2005 - 2011

2D: threshold exceedance

Ski

ll sc

ore

Ski

ll S

core

Max{HSS} = 0.61 Max{HSS} = 0.71

3D: vertical extent

9th March 2016 Hail hazard and risk assessment [email protected]

Reflectivity in dBZ HK in km

(Puskeiler and Kunz, 2016)

Page 10: Hail hazard and risk assessment in Europe and the relation ...tippett/SCC2/Presentations/Day 1/Session 1/01.kunz_severe...Max{HSS} = 0.61 . Max{HSS} = 0.71 3D: vertical extent 9th

2016 Severe Convection and Climate Workshop

Hail frequency in European countries

Number of days with hail signals (2D/3D radar refl.)

Belgium, Luxembourg 2004-2013

" 1 - 5" 6 - 8" 9 - 11" 12 - 14" 15 - 17" 18 - 21" 22 - 29

(Fluck et al., 2015; Kunz and Schmidberger, 2014)

Hail hazard and risk assessment [email protected] 9th March 2016

France 2005-2013

Germany 2005-2011

Page 11: Hail hazard and risk assessment in Europe and the relation ...tippett/SCC2/Presentations/Day 1/Session 1/01.kunz_severe...Max{HSS} = 0.61 . Max{HSS} = 0.71 3D: vertical extent 9th

2016 Severe Convection and Climate Workshop

Hail probability related to orography Flow dynamics: Flow around regime, formation of low-level flow convergence

Froude number Fr

rela

tive

frequ

ency

in %

HNUFr =

(Kunz and Puskeiler, MZ, 2010)

Hail hazard and risk assessment [email protected] 9th March 2016

Histogram of Fr on hail days SW Ger.

Page 12: Hail hazard and risk assessment in Europe and the relation ...tippett/SCC2/Presentations/Day 1/Session 1/01.kunz_severe...Max{HSS} = 0.61 . Max{HSS} = 0.71 3D: vertical extent 9th

2016 Severe Convection and Climate Workshop

Hail probability vs orography Semi-idealized COSMO-DE simulations (2.8 km) Initialization with ambient conditions that favor hailstorms (Fr ~ 0.6)

Flow convergence Convective available potential energy CAPE

CON

9th March 2016 Hail hazard and risk assessment [email protected]

(Köbele, 2014)

DIV

Page 13: Hail hazard and risk assessment in Europe and the relation ...tippett/SCC2/Presentations/Day 1/Session 1/01.kunz_severe...Max{HSS} = 0.61 . Max{HSS} = 0.71 3D: vertical extent 9th

2016 Severe Convection and Climate Workshop

Hail hazard and risk assessment [email protected] 9th March 2016

Hail probability vs orography COSMO sensitivity studies using different model setups

Ref

(Brombach, 2012)

Page 14: Hail hazard and risk assessment in Europe and the relation ...tippett/SCC2/Presentations/Day 1/Session 1/01.kunz_severe...Max{HSS} = 0.61 . Max{HSS} = 0.71 3D: vertical extent 9th

2016 Severe Convection and Climate Workshop

Hail hazard and risk assessment [email protected] 9th March 2016

Risk Assessment: CAT-Modeling Hail risk for the Insurance Industry

Risk = hazard x exposure x vulnerability

(IPCC SREX, 2012)

Event catalogue

Stoch. Modeling e.g. 10 000 years

intensity

degr

ee o

f dam

age

Portfolio

10%

Damage function

Portfolio, object data

(Daniell, 2013)

Page 15: Hail hazard and risk assessment in Europe and the relation ...tippett/SCC2/Presentations/Day 1/Session 1/01.kunz_severe...Max{HSS} = 0.61 . Max{HSS} = 0.71 3D: vertical extent 9th

2016 Severe Convection and Climate Workshop

Long-term changes in hail probability

Warming due to climate change

Increased evaporation

Invigoration lifting / convective energy

Changes frequency / intensity events

Dynamics, weather patterns

?

?

Hail hazard and risk assessment [email protected] 9th March 2016

Page 16: Hail hazard and risk assessment in Europe and the relation ...tippett/SCC2/Presentations/Day 1/Session 1/01.kunz_severe...Max{HSS} = 0.61 . Max{HSS} = 0.71 3D: vertical extent 9th

2016 Severe Convection and Climate Workshop

Trends Convective Parameters Trends 90% percentiles from radio-soundings Increase in convective energy caused by increase in moisture (low lev)

Soundings: 1978-2009

(Mohr and Kunz, ARE, 2013)

Hail hazard and risk assessment [email protected] 9th March 2016

Percentiles estimated from pdf (Gamma / Weibull distrib.) Eliminate of autocorrelation: trend-free pre-whitening

Page 17: Hail hazard and risk assessment in Europe and the relation ...tippett/SCC2/Presentations/Day 1/Session 1/01.kunz_severe...Max{HSS} = 0.61 . Max{HSS} = 0.71 3D: vertical extent 9th

2016 Severe Convection and Climate Workshop

Logistic regression Logistic Hail Model LHM

Potential Hail Index (PHI)

mit

Logistic Hail Modelling

Mohr, Kunz, and Keuler, JGR, 2015) (Mohr, Kunz, and Geyer, GRL, 2015

SLI: Lifted Index Tmin: Min. Temp. 2 m T2m: 12 UTC Temp. 2 m oWL: objective weather patterns

9th March 2016 Hail hazard and risk assessment [email protected]

Page 18: Hail hazard and risk assessment in Europe and the relation ...tippett/SCC2/Presentations/Day 1/Session 1/01.kunz_severe...Max{HSS} = 0.61 . Max{HSS} = 0.71 3D: vertical extent 9th

2016 Severe Convection and Climate Workshop

Hail hazard and risk assessment [email protected] 9th March 2016

Hail potential in Europe (1951-2010) Combination of various meteorological parameters relevant for thunderstorm / hail: Potential Hail Index PHI

1951-2000

Reanalysis, driven by NCEP–NCAR 1 (@ HZG)

II decr

ease

in

crea

se

(Mohr, Kunz and Geyer, GRL, 2015)

not significant

trend mean

Page 19: Hail hazard and risk assessment in Europe and the relation ...tippett/SCC2/Presentations/Day 1/Session 1/01.kunz_severe...Max{HSS} = 0.61 . Max{HSS} = 0.71 3D: vertical extent 9th

2016 Severe Convection and Climate Workshop

1951-2000

Reanalysis, driven by NCEP–NCAR 1 (@ HZG)

Hail hazard and risk assessment [email protected] 9th March 2016

Hail potential in Europe (1951-2010) Combination of various meteorological parameters relevant for thunderstorm / hail

II

(Mohr, Kunz and Geyer, GRL, 2015)

mean

Page 20: Hail hazard and risk assessment in Europe and the relation ...tippett/SCC2/Presentations/Day 1/Session 1/01.kunz_severe...Max{HSS} = 0.61 . Max{HSS} = 0.71 3D: vertical extent 9th

2016 Severe Convection and Climate Workshop

PHI in the future (Germany) de

crea

se

inc

reas

e

Mini-Ensemble based on 7 RCMs different SRES, realizations, RCMs

2021-2050 vs 1971-2000

(Mohr, Kunz and Keuler, JGR, 2015)

Hail hazard and risk assessment [email protected] 9th March 2016

Page 21: Hail hazard and risk assessment in Europe and the relation ...tippett/SCC2/Presentations/Day 1/Session 1/01.kunz_severe...Max{HSS} = 0.61 . Max{HSS} = 0.71 3D: vertical extent 9th

2016 Severe Convection and Climate Workshop

Conclusions Large damage potential associated with hail in Europe

Hail hazard assessment from remote sensing instruments:

− robust and physically plausible

− OT approach: consistent for larger areas

− Radar-derived signals: detailed estimates

Hail signals: high spatial variability related to

− overall climatology (→ stability)

− (low) mountains (→ preferred location downstream)

Hail potential has been increased over past decades, (slight) increase in the future; trends statistically not significant

Hail hazard and risk assessment [email protected] 9th March 2016

Page 22: Hail hazard and risk assessment in Europe and the relation ...tippett/SCC2/Presentations/Day 1/Session 1/01.kunz_severe...Max{HSS} = 0.61 . Max{HSS} = 0.71 3D: vertical extent 9th

2016 Severe Convection and Climate Workshop

…Thank you Hail hazard and risk assessment [email protected] 9th March 2016

19-21