hail suppression in greece
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George N. Farazoulis ELGA/GREECE
Weather Modification Activities
in Greece
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George N. Farazoulis / ELGA/GREECE
Greece
EUROPE
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George N. Farazoulis / ELGA/GREECE
In Greece the only institute which is involved with
weather mod activity is ELGA
ELGA=Hellenic Agricultural ELGA=Hellenic Agricultural Insurance OrganizationInsurance Organization
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George N. Farazoulis / ELGA/GREECE
ELGA is the main public carrier
of insurance coverage in agricultural exploitation
in Greece which is supervised
by the Greek Ministry of
Rural Development and Food.
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George N. Farazoulis / ELGA/GREECE
The insurance that ELGA provides
is compulsory and protects
the agricultural production and
the livestock of the country.
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George N. Farazoulis / ELGA/GREECE
ELGA’sELGA’sMain Target ActivitiesMain Target Activities
1. Crop Insurance1. Crop Insurance( Against specific perils ( Against specific perils
i.e. frost , hail , flood etc) i.e. frost , hail , flood etc) MPCI systemMPCI system
2. Loss Prevention2. Loss Prevention
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George N. Farazoulis / ELGA/GREECE
Loss PreventionLoss Prevention
Aims to prevent or to suppress
the Insured and
the not-Insured Risks
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George N. Farazoulis / ELGA/GREECE
Loss PreventionLoss Preventionactivityactivity
1.Application of experimental1.Application of experimental--operational projectsoperational projects
2.Subsidization of protection’s 2.Subsidization of protection’s means means TheThe whole procedure is promoting straight to the insured farmer. whole procedure is promoting straight to the insured farmer.
Main Main Covered RisksCovered Risks : : FrostFrost ++ HailHailFuture interested Risk : Future interested Risk : Flood , WindFlood , Wind
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George N. Farazoulis / ELGA/GREECE
Operational projectsOperational projects
Frost Frost Fog systemFog system
HailHail 1. 1. Airborne cloud seedingAirborne cloud seeding
2. 2. Hail CanonsHail Canons
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George N. Farazoulis / ELGA/GREECE
Subsidization of protection’s means
Frost Frost Wind machineWind machine
Hail Hail Hail netsHail nets
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George N. Farazoulis / ELGA/GREECE
Loss Prevention’s Site Map
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George N. Farazoulis / ELGA/GREECE
HAIL Protection with
airborne seeding3 Piper Cheyenne II 3 Piper Cheyenne II Seeding agent :Seeding agent :AgIAgIFlares 20gr and 70grFlares 20gr and 70grTotal Protected Area Total Protected Area :5000km:5000km²²Cultivation : FruitsCultivation : Fruits
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George N. Farazoulis / ELGA/GREECE
OPERATIONAL AREAS
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George N. Farazoulis / ELGA/GREECE
A1 Central Macedonia
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George N. Farazoulis / ELGA/GREECE
Area: Α1
Naoussa
Edessa
Veria
Gianitsa
CULTIVATIONS:
Fruits
CULTIVATIONS:
• Wheat
• Tobacco
• Cotton
• Corn
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George N. Farazoulis / ELGA/GREECE
A3 Thessaly
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George N. Farazoulis / ELGA/GREECE
2 S band EEC radars +2 C Band (alternative )
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George N. Farazoulis / ELGA/GREECE
HAIL control (Thessaloniki airport)
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George N. Farazoulis / ELGA/GREECE
142 Hailpads 64 Rain gauges
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George N. Farazoulis / ELGA/GREECE
HAILFALL OCCURRENCEIN CENTRAL MACEDONIA, GREECE
0
5
10
15
20
25
30
Rel
. Fre
quen
cy (%
)
April May June July August Sept.
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George N. Farazoulis / ELGA/GREECE
Evaluation of the Greek Hail Suppression Program
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George N. Farazoulis / ELGA/GREECE
A few words before the results
It’s reasonable to Evaluate an Operational Cloud Seeding
Program?
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George N. Farazoulis / ELGA/GREECE
TRESSA FOWLER
No conclusions can be drawn from No conclusions can be drawn from statistical evaluations of statistical evaluations of operationaloperationalprograms. programs. No exceptions.No exceptions.
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George N. Farazoulis / ELGA/GREECE
Why Not? or the Bad News
Often no control group.Often no control group.When there is, usually systematic When there is, usually systematic differences between control and differences between control and treatment:treatment:
not selected at random. not selected at random. comparison of before and after.comparison of before and after.
Possible hidden cause.Possible hidden cause.
TRESSA FOWLER
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George N. Farazoulis / ELGA/GREECE
TO TEST THE PHYSICAL HYPOTHESES
OF HOW SEEDING IS SUPPOSED TO WORK,
RANDOMIZED EXPERIMENTSARE NEEDED
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George N. Farazoulis / ELGA/GREECE
DIFFICULTIES ON STATISTICAL EVALUATION
NEED TO CONVIENCE
SCIENTISTS FINANCIER PEOPLE
Theoretician•Conceptual model
•Physical hypothesis
Operational•Procedures
•Equipment
They do not care about evaluation,
but just for the (economic)
results.
They care about
rain enhancement
or
hail suppression.
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George N. Farazoulis / ELGA/GREECE
THE GREEK NATIONAL
HAIL SUPPRESSION
PROJECT
ΑΑ22
ΑΑ11
ΑΑ33
•OPERATION. AREAS: A1, A2 A3 (4000 Km2)
•TIME PERIOD
•KIND OF OPERAT.: A1 Research & Ops
:1984-88: 15-Apr. - 30 Sep.
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George N. Farazoulis / ELGA/GREECE
Edessa
Veria
Giannitsa(1)
(2)
Area: Α1 Crossover North
South
““CROSSOVER DESIGN”CROSSOVER DESIGN”Randomize the two areas (North and
South) for each experimental unit.
End of experimental unit, 7 daylight hours after last operation.
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George N. Farazoulis / ELGA/GREECE
Hailpad Network
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George N. Farazoulis / ELGA/GREECE
Typical Hailpad
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George N. Farazoulis / ELGA/GREECE
TOTAL HAILFALL OCCURRENCES AT EACH HAILPAD SITE
IN CENTRAL MACEDONIA, GREECE
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George N. Farazoulis / ELGA/GREECE
RATIO STATISTICS1. The results are positive.
2. 18 (out of 21) parameters are statistically accepted at the 5% level of significance.
3. Their effect is between 35% and 72%.
4. Only 3 (out of 21) parameters are not statistically accepted at α=0.05. In spite of that, they show positive results.
Single Ratio: seeding at the south part of area A, was more successful of that at the north part.
The Stone Kinetic Energy (Τ) parameter was considered as the tentative candidate for the “primary evaluation parameter”. Hence, the established 70% effect, would be more valuable and trustworthy, if it would be calculated on time.
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George N. Farazoulis / ELGA/GREECE
The current project ends on 2008. From now we are preparing for the new period 2009-2013
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George N. Farazoulis / ELGA/GREECE
Let’s•the met to direct the pilots•the pilots to fly in the cells •the scientists to continue the research
A wish for the new project
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George N. Farazoulis / ELGA/GREECE
A new Hail protection project
with G.B.G.in GREECE
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George N. Farazoulis / ELGA/GREECE
The initial target area
A1
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George N. Farazoulis / ELGA/GREECE
The initial proposed sitting ……..
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George N. Farazoulis / ELGA/GREECE
Procedures had been followed…
1. ELGA’s Board decision → done2. Working team to carry out the project → done3. Specifications ( who is going to do what ) → done4. International tender → done5. Start point…… → not yet
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George N. Farazoulis / ELGA/GREECE
• WMA in the field of weather modification
• Cyprus in the field of Agr. Insurances
• Serbia in the field of Active Protection
• AIAG in the field of Agr. Insurances
• Austria in the field of Airborne Cloud Seeding
• Italy for Civil Protection
• Spain in the field of Cloud Seeding by Ground Means
• Argentina in the field of weather modification
• Bulgaria & Croatia …. it’s coming soon
International Collaboration
Indicative list
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George N. Farazoulis / ELGA/GREECE
Argentina
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George N. Farazoulis / ELGA/GREECE
Argentina
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George N. Farazoulis / ELGA/GREECE
….. the agreement with ELGA….
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George N. Farazoulis / ELGA/GREECE
AUSTRIAAirborne cloud seeding for Hail Suppression
Protected area:
~2500 km2140 hailpads2 x 2 km grid
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George N. Farazoulis / ELGA/GREECE
The Austrian Hail Defense A/C (from the left to the right) :Cessna 206 OE-DUM- Cessna 210 OE-DSD- Cessna 172 OE-DLS
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George N. Farazoulis / ELGA/GREECE
Cessna 210 OE-DSD
Wingspan: 10,2 m
Engine: Lycoming6-cylinders 290 HP
2 silver-iodide-generators
2 flare racks
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George N. Farazoulis / ELGA/GREECE
One of the two silver-iodide generators on the Cessna 210. Above a flare rack
The flares contain pressed black powder with appr. 7 % volumeof silver iodide
The burning duration of the flares manufactured by the Austrian company Pinto 7 min
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George N. Farazoulis / ELGA/GREECE
BulgariaThe Hail Suppression Project with the rockets
has terminated
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George N. Farazoulis / ELGA/GREECE
Although the Bulgarian hail project has terminated …..
•They continue to produce AgI•The Government is thinking to start an airborne cloud seeding project in collaboration with Greece
•The future is open
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George N. Farazoulis / ELGA/GREECE
SPAIN Hail Suppression Project with GBG
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George N. Farazoulis / ELGA/GREECE
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George N. Farazoulis / ELGA/GREECE
Weather Modification Activities
in Cyprus
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George N. Farazoulis / ELGA/GREECE
Where is Cyprus…
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George N. Farazoulis / ELGA/GREECE
No Weather Mod Activities
YET ……….
OGA (Cyprus) is thinking to follow
the ELGA (Greek) experience