halal analysis of automated election system failure as of 23 march 2010

8/9/2019 HALAL Analysis of Automated Election System Failure as of 23 March 2010

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A Vote ofin Sma

RobertSecretarHalalang

rverzola

onfidencetmatic?

Verzolay-GeneralMarangal

gn.apc.org


2/56

March 8: Smart

Last Mar

a full-page ad bcame out in seve

The ad wA Vote of Confidence

a

tic full-page ad

h 8, 2010

Smartmatic-TIMal national dailies.

as entitledfor the 2010 Elections


3/56

Hardware / suppli

82,200 PCOS manu-factured, delivered

1,722 canvassing andconsolidation serversand printers delivered

1,722 powergenerators delivered

es / consumables

180,640 compactflash memory cardspurchased

82,200 batteries foreach PCOS delivered

338,750 rolls forprinting 30 copies ofER per pcnt delivered


4/56

82,200 PCOS

Note the careful omissiChina, delivered in Mafull testing and accept

Omission creates false

In 2004, thorough testimachines took 3 montComm. Mehol Sadain,

ade, delivered

on: manufactured inila, but no mention ofnce by the Comelec

impression of readiness

g of 1,990 countings (source: Comeleca HALAL convenor)


5/56

1,722 canvassingservers and pri

No mentionor Comelec

and consolidationnters delivered

f test resultsacceptance


6/56

1,722 power gen

No mentionor Comelec

erators delivered

f test resultsacceptance


7/56

180,640 compacards p

Each machine uses tw

82,200 PCOS machin

82,200 x 2 = 164,400 180,640164,400 = 16

There are only 75,471

Warning: potential capmemory cards in 21.5

ct flash memoryurchased

memory cards

s, including backups

emory cards needed,240 extra memory cards

precinct clusters

bility to substituteof PCOS machines


8/56

Hardware / suppli

Unknown test results:

82,200 PCOS and batt

1,722 canvassing andprinters, generators

180,640 compact flash20% more than neces

PROBABILITY OF

es / consumables

ries

onsolidation servers,

memory cards; at leastary

UCCESS: 80%


9/56

Software // voter e

Source codecustomization finished

Source code inescrow at BSP

System auditinternationally-recognizedcertification entityfinished

ertificationsucation Source code public

review processopened

Successful field testsand mock elections

Voter educationwebsites launched

Voter educn TV andradio infomercials


10/56

Source code cust

Customization includverification and confirbuilt into the PCOS ma

This feature would havcandidates marked in tthen confirm through a

ballot was scanned ac It assures voters that t

accurately. This featur

mization finished

d disabling of voteration feature which ischine.

displayed the names ofhe ballot. Voters mustCAST button that their

urately.eir votes were scannedwas disabled.


11/56

Source code in

Source code is Smartinstructions directed to

No mention of sourceSystest, for which Co

No mention of any certthe full Systest report,

Insiders cite series ofbetween Systest and

Release the full text of

escrow at BSP

atic's generalevery machine

ode certification byelec paid P72 million

ification document, or ofn its source code review

ritten exchangesomelec about the review

the Systest review NOW


12/56

System audit brecognized ce

System anot only the

but all the fivessential to

Smartmatic claims finis

much less a full report,public. Full audit rep

internationally-tification entity

dit coverssource code

sub-systemsES success

ed. But no certification,

as been released to thert must be released.


13/56

Sourcpublic review p

Process is hiand makes a revie

So far, no grou

to conduct

coderocess opened

hly restrictiveextremely difficult

p has managed

code review


14/56

Successfuand moc

WHAT A LIE!

High ballot rejection ratshould not cause ballot

Transmission problems

Blackout on machine a

A contractor that will pad can lie about anythi

l field testselections

s (light shading of ovalsrejection)even in Metro Manila

curacy/error rates

t such a lie in a full-pageg


15/56

Software // voter e

System audit and sourtext report or certificati

Source code public redone a code review

Successful field tests a

What a lie!

PROBABILITY OF

ertificationsucation

e code review: no fulln released

iew: no local group has

nd mock elections:

UCCESS: 70%


16/56

Logistics / Supp

28 multinationalexperts at the PMT

327 qualified Filipinoorganic employees

Over 36,000 votingcenters surveyed forsignal, power, etc.

438 Comelec trainers

rt / Preparations

23,000 sqm centralwarehouse and configfacility operational

Contracts withlogistics providers,forwarders signed

Recruitment, trainingof 48,000 field techsstarted


17/56

Over 36,000surveyed for si

Since there are 4only 75% hav

oting centersnal, power, etc.

,000 voting centersbeen covered


18/56

904 test and confworking

Tests needed

Burn-in of machines, b

Full testing of batteries:

Testing for failures ratefailures (MTBF)

Testing for ballot rejecti

Testing for scan accuraless than 5 per 100,00

In 2004, testing 1,990

ig line employeeswo shifts

tteries, generators, etc.

will they last >12 hrs?

and mean time between

on rates

cy/error rates (should bemarks)achines took 3 months


19/56

Contracts with loforwarde

Relative unknowns. H(Malaya, 15 March 201 Germalin Enterprises (

Agro Intl Forwarders (Pearnings)

ACF Logistics Worldwi

balance) Assuming a delivery te

delivery personnel nee

gistics providers,s signedve you heard of the ff?0)2.3M 2006 net income)

3.7M 2008 retained

e (P1.1M 2008 cash

m of 3, at least 200,000ed for 75,471 clusters


20/56

Recruitmeof 48,000 fiel

48,000 field technician

nt, trainingtechs started

for 75,471 machines?


21/56

438 Comel

For 226,000

ec trainers

EI members?


22/56

Logistics / Supp

Over 36,000 voting cecoverage

438 Comelec trainers:

Logistics providers, for

Recruitment, training o

started

PROBABILITY OF

rt / Preparations

ters surveyed: 75%

60,000 BEIs to train

arders: unknowns

48,000 field techs: only

UCCESS: 80%


23/56

TelecommuTrans

48,000 modemsdelivered

46,000 SIM cardssecured

5,500 BGAN mobilesat xmtrs purchased

680 VSAT mobile satxmtrs leased

ications andission

2 data centers forbackup of nationwideresults with

redundancy secured Contract with major

telcos to provide VPN

for transmitting resultssecured


24/56

48,000 mod

For 75,471(63

How many of the

a signal i

ms delivered

machines?.6%)m can actually get

the field?


25/56

46,000 SIM

FalseSmartmatic generatescertificates, verifies the

the m

This is like mergingfunctions of accoun

operator

ards secured

ecurity:asswords, issues digitalertificates, and operates

chines

n a single person theant, cashier, auditor,nd vendor!


26/56

5,500 BGANpurc

48,000 + 5,

obile sat xmtrsased

00 = 53,500


27/56

680 VSAT mobil

53,500 + 6(for 75,471 ma

sat xmtrs leased

80 = 54,180hines, or 71.8%)


28/56

2 data centers forwith redund

Data centers in se

the Comelec refuses

This is equivalent toin a secret place

and Smar

backup of resultsncy secured

ret locations which

to reveal to the public

conducting a canvassonly the Comelecmatic know


29/56

Contract with majVPN for transmitti

According to Smartmonly 70% of voting cen

r telcos to provideg results secured

tic's own field surveys,ers have reliable signals


30/56

TelecommuTrans

46,000 SIM cards: for

48,000 modems; 5,50transmitters: for 75,741

Contract with major tel

2 data centers for bac

PROBABILITY OF

ications andission

8,000 modems?

BGAN; 680 mobile satmachines? (72%)os: 70% coverage

up: secret locations

UCCESS: 70%


31/56

Ballot PrintingDelivered to CO

4 high-speed digitalprinters

1,500 metric tons ofballot paper

9,380 liters of ink

InfrastructureELEC and NPO

Over 10 million ballotswith security marks

(invisible ultravioletmark and uniquebarcode) printed


32/56

Over 10 million bmarks (invisible ul

unique barc

Ballot printing begins a

C. LAPEA, K. J. TAN, GMANew02/08/2010 | 02:11 PM

The printing of ballots for the May

after technical considerations" hCommission on Elections (Comel

This was announced by Commissp.m. after printing was delayed by

llots with securitytraviolet mark andde) printed

ter a half-day delay

s.TV

2010 elections has finally begun

mpered the process, thec) said Monday.

ioner Gregorio Larrazabal at 1more than half a day.


33/56

Confidential Mmemo on ballot

... The Comelec memorandum noted thafor the electronic balloting had been prinaccepted as good ballots, while the res

Granting that 7,878,480 are all good bal42,845,254 for a period of 54 days. Thisdaily production of 793,430,629, more oris impossible! the memorandum read.

Smartmatic-TIM has leased to the comm

printers, each capable of printing 200,00

Ladra said the printers daily output wascapacity, she said only 34.1 million ballothe Comelec starts to ship out the ballot

rch 1 Comelecprinting problemt as of March 1, some 7.9 million ballotsed. Of the number, 5.3 million weret have yet to be checked.

lots, we still have to print a total ofmeans, we should be able to have aless, per day from four printers, which

ission four Kodak VersaMark VL 4000

0 ballots.

only 650,000 or 162,500 each. At thiss would be printed by April 25, when. (PDI report, 10Mar2010)


34/56

7.9 million bfrom Feb.

Dates DayRate

2/8 3/1 20 7

assuming the sa3/2 4/30 60 2

7.9 million + 21.3

If the remaining 10.8 milthe same rate, they will

llots printedto Mar. 1

Ballots

.9 million 394,000/day

me printing rate...1.3 million

illion = 39.2 million

lion ballots are printed ate finished on May 27


35/56

1,600 print jo

Each municipality/city hEach ballot desi

1,600 print jois 20 print j

What if a printinDo candidates ve

are accurately positio

bs in 80 days

as its own ballot designn is one print job

bs in 80 daysbs per day

error is made?rify if their namesned? (Due diligence!)


36/56

4 high-speed

Accordingthese special

are not availaKodak m

only when ord

igital printers

to insiders,Kodak printersle off-the-shelf.kes them

rs are received


37/56


unique barc

Ultraviolet scadisabled, accordin(UV mark is a

ARMM ballots minu

llots with securitytraviolet mark and

de) printed

nning capabilityto CJ Panganibanecurity feature)

s NPO security mark


38/56


unique barc

PROBABILITY OF

llots with securitytraviolet mark and

de) printed

UCCESS: 80%


39/56

Expected probabas of March 8

Sub-project

Hardware and suSoftware and cerLogistics and suTelecomms andBallot printing

ilities of success,martmatic ad

PoS

pplies 80%ifications 70%port 80%ransmission 70%

80%


40/56

Basicof Project

(and Reliabilit

To get the overall p

of a project with a seach one essential to

multiplyeach sub-project's p

.8 x .7 x .8

rincipleanagement

Engineering)robability of success

ries of sub-projects,verall project success,

togetherrobability of success:

x .7 x .8 = ?


41/56

If each subprchances o

.99 x .99 x .

=

ject had 99%success...

9 x .99 x .99

95


42/56


.95 x .95 x .

=


5 x .95 x .95

77


43/56


.9 x .9 x .

=


9 x .9 x .9

59


44/56


.87 x .87 x .

= .


7 x .87 x .87

98


45/56


.8 x .8 x .

=


8 x .8 x .8

33


46/56

Estimated AES chas of March 8 a

.8 x .7 x .

=

ances of success,by Smartmatic

8 x .7 x .8

25


47/56

Will Smartmaticthe Filipin

The March 8 ad implieSmartmatic solid

in each of their five a

Smartmatic marked th

Will Smartmatic,

also speak for Filipi

ote on behalf ofpeople?

that voters have givenotes of confidence

tomation sub-projects.

se ovals, not the voters.

foreign company,

o voters on May 10?


48/56

I. The COME

Make public test protocolsmachine, particularly theballot rejection rates, and

Allow pol parties to test so Not accept, deploy or pay

meet specifications sim

Distribute machines randoare sent to opposition baili

Embargo the 16,240 extra

EC should ...

and test results of everyean time between failures,can accurary rates

me machines themselvesfor machines which do notle due diligence

mly: what if bad machineswicks?

memory cards


49/56

II. The COME

Reenable voter verificballot was scanned ac

Make public Systest con the system audit an

Provide stakeholder aon the same terms and

Make public the seriesComelec and its TechCommittee (TEC) and

EC should ...

tion and confirmation ifurately by the machine

rtification and full reportssource code review

cess to the source codeconditions as Systest

of exchanges betweenical Evaluationystest


50/56

III. The COME

Make public the transavailability survey repo

Make public the list offorwarding firms contra

Make public the contra

Make public the latesttesting, ballot printing,timelines

LEC should ...

ission and powerrt of Smartmatic

ield offices of allcted by Smartmatic

ts with forwarding firms

ersion of its machineelivery and training


51/56

IV. The COM

Make public detailed cwith weak or no signalfailures occur

Make public copy of co

Open to the public Co

Transfer digital securitSmartmatic to indepen

LEC should ...

ntinuity plan for areas, or where transmission

ntracts with telcos

elec data servers site

management froment third party (DOST?)


52/56

V. The COME

Grant observer statusballot printing committ

Conduct random testinmachine readability an

Allow political parties tbatches themselves

LEC should ...

o political parties in thee

of ballots for quality,rejection rates

inspect and test ballot

T liti l

ti d


53/56

To politicalthe public:

Location-specific prob

Regional variations in delquality/reliability of cou

batteries, servers, electsignals, ballots availabi

These variations can biasome candidate bailiwi

Ballot fraud in millions:ovals than writing nam

parties andeware of ...

lems, authentic or not:

ivery capabilities,ting machines, modems,

ricity, generators, telcoity, conduct of trainings, etc.

voter turnout in favor ofks over others

it is easier with shadings


54/56

Reducing the

All proposals for ensuriAES must be heeded

Every precinct must be

prepared to count votemachine delay or failurballots and for a post-e

Full parallel count by agroups based on onemust be authorized an

risk of failure

ng transparency in the

authorized and

manually in cases of, valid but rejected

lection manual audit

consortium of citizens'f the 8 official ER copiesdone in public


55/56

Options in ca

Orderly constitutional tensured, if no presidensenators are proclaime

Clarify the role of suchgovernment in settlingpossibly conducting ne

e of failure...

ansition must bet, vice-president ord

interim post-GMAlection disputes or even

w, credible elections


56/56

Turbulent tim

Pray for

Prepare f

s are coming

the best

r the worst

halal analysis of automated election system failure as of 23 march 2010

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