Half Year Analysis of Part I Crime in Camden CityJanuary – June 2006

Source: UCR Crime Data

Overall Part I Crime AnalysisBased on a six year analysis of Camden City Part I crime, first half year crime totals are a good predictor of the overall crime totals for a year.

Previous analysis by WRI showed that 1st quarter totals were not reliable predictors of what a yearly total will be. This analysis suggests that half year totals can reliably predict full year totals.

As this presentation shows, the three lowest Part I crime years all had the lowest first half year totals. Likewise the three highest first half crime years all had the highest full year totals.The rate of crime in the second half of each of the years analyzed were very comparable to the first half totals allowing for a firm prediction for the second half of 2006.

While crime is up in 2006, it is still well below the previous 5 year averageOverall crime for the first half of 2006 showed an 11% increase from the first six months of 2005. However, 2006 Part I crime is still well below (18%) the average of the 2000 through 2004. Aggravated assaults and homicides were the only two crimes which have decreased from 2005 to 2006.Rape was the only crime in which 2006 has not shown a decrease in comparison to the 2000-2004 five year average.

Note: (Part I Crime is comprised of the most violent, serious and frequently occurred offenses (murder and non-negligent manslaughter, rape, robbery, aggravated assault, burglary, larceny-theft, motor vehicle theft, and arson) that also serve as indicators of the nation's crime experience)

Comparison of Total Number of Part I Crimes by YearJanuary-June 2000-2006

Overall, the first half of 2006 compares favorably to the first halves of prior years

While the first half of 2006 saw an overall increase in part I crime when compared to 2005, when compared to prior years it is the third lowest year of the decade.

Aggravated Assault and Homicide showed decreases from the year prior.

0200400600800

1000120014001600

HOMICID

E

RAPE

ROBBERY

AGGRAVATED ASSA

ULT

BURGLARYLARCENY THEFT

MOTOR VEHIC

LE THEFT

ARSON

2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006

27 2622 23

16

25

12

32

05

101520253035404550

HOMIC

IDE

RAPE

2003 2004 2005 2006

Homicide and Rape Crimes by YearJanuary-June 2000-2006

First Half of the Year Total Number of Part I Crimes January-June

11%21%

16%

18%

24%

-14%-7%-19%-13%-19%

2%

28%

-25%

Percent Difference

from2005 to 2006

3,832

109

589

1,261

574

45614174112129

343

25

19

Average for Jan-June

2000-2004

2,82063

491

1,026

445

44312378139103

311

25

16

Jan-June2005

-18%-30%

-4%

-4%

-4%

-16%-18%-15%8%

-36%

-9%

28%

-37%

Percent Difference From the

Average of 2000-2004 to 2006

3,144GRAND TOTAL

76ARSON

567MOTOR VEHICLE THEFT

1,206LARCENY THEFT

552BURGLARY

3821156312183

AGGRAVATED ASSAULTGun

Knife or Cutting InstrumentOther Dangerous Weapons

Aggravated (hands, feet, fists)

317ROBBERY

32RAPE

12HOMICIDE

Jan-June2006

Classification of Offenses

Camden City Monthly Average of Part I Crimes January-June

524

13

95

201

92

64

19

11

20

14

53

5

2

Monthly Average for Jan-June

2006

470

11

82

171

74

74

21

13

23

17

52

4

3

Monthly Average Jan-June

2005

639

18

98

210

96

76

24

12

19

22

57

4

3

Monthly Average for Jan-June

2000-2004

MONTHLY AVERAGE GRAND TOTAL

ARSON

MOTOR VEHICLE THEFT

LARCENY THEFT

BURGLARY

AGGRAVATED ASSAULT

GunKnife or Cutting

InstrumentOther Dangerous

WeaponsAggravated (hands, feet,

fists)

ROBBERY

RAPE

HOMICIDE

Classification of Offenses

Half Year Analysis of Part I CrimesJanuary- December

2000-2006

**Note: This yearly crime total for 2006 was estimated by averaging the last six years for an estimated .98% increase from the half year total of 3145.

When comparing the estimated yearly rate of Part I crime for 2006 to past years, the 2006 rate compares favorably to the years past and is most similar to the rate in 2002.

3401 3640 3139 3239 36642820 3145

3340 3512 32834166 3623

2992

0

1000

2000

3000

4000

5000

6000

7000

8000

2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006

Second HalfFirst Half

6741 7152

64227405

7287

61376542

Half Year Analysis of Homicides January- December

2000-2006

Note: Estimates are based upon similar first half year totals average.

The number of homicides in the first six months of 2006 was relatively low. If the trend seen in prior years continues, the total homicide rate for the year will be very similar to the rate in 2001, the lowest of the decade.

15 1220

27 22 16 12

1113

1414 27

19

0

10

20

30

40

50

60

2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006

Second HalfFirst Half

2625

34

41

49

34

26

Half Year Analysis of Rape January- December

2000-2006

Note: Estimates are based upon similar first half year totals average.

Rape rates for the first half of 2006 have been relatively high. When comparing 2006 to other years with similar first half numbers, it appears that 2006 will be a high year, but not exceed 2000.

31 24 19 26 23 25 32

38

3426

3033 19

0

10

20

30

40

50

60

70

80

2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006

Second HalfFirst Half

69

58

45

56 56

44

61

Half Year Analysis of RobberiesJanuary- December

2000-2006

Note: Estimates are based upon similar first half year totals average.

Of the years analyzed, only 2002 had a lower number of robberies in the first half of the year. Based on prior year trends the overall 2006 rate will likely be similar to that of 2000.

331 343 272 357 410311 318

343 372335

499 412391

0100200300400500600700800900

2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006

Second HalfFirst Half

674 715

607

856822

702674

Half Year Analysis of BurglariesJanuary- December

2000-2006

Note: Estimates are based upon similar first half year totals average.

The number of burglaries in the first six months of 2006 is very similar to the numbers in 2002 and 2004, indicating that the total for 2006 will be relatively low and similar to those two years.

606 721557 641 553 445 552

570653

598818

606 575

0

200

400

600

800

1000

1200

1400

1600

2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006

Second HalfFirst Half

1374

1176 1155

1459

1159

10201145

Half Year Analysis of Aggravated Assaults January- December

2000-2006

Note: Estimates are based upon similar first half year totals average.

2006 has the lowest first half number of aggravated assaults of the decade. Prior years trend suggest that the 2006 total will be lower than all other years analyzed.

472 459 405 466 477 443 382

435 451 456506

420 455

0

200

400

600

800

1000

1200

2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006

Second HalfFirst Half

907 910861

972

897 898

818

Half Year Analysis of Aggravated Assaults with a Gun January- December

2000-2006

Note: Estimates are based upon similar first half year totals average.

The first half of 2006 is the lowest half year of the years analyzed, suggesting that overall aggravated assault with a gun rates have dropped, and the 2006 rate will be similar to the rates of 2000 and 2005.

128 134 133 154 155 123 115

115 137 135150

125120

0

50

100

150

200

250

300

350

2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006

Second HalfFirst Half

243271 268

304280

243 238

Half Year Analysis of Larceny January- December

2000-2006

Note: Estimates are based upon similar first half year totals average.

1255 1281 1169 1177 14251026 1206

1250 1261 1238 1494 13501306

0

500

1000

1500

2000

2500

3000

2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006

Second HalfFirst Half

2505 25422407

2671 2775

2332 2462

The first half year rate for 2006 indicates that the total number of larceny crimes for the year will be similar to the numbers in first three years of the decade.

Half Year Analysis of Motor Vehicle Theft January- December

2000-2006

Note: Estimates are based upon similar first half year totals average.

Motor vehicle theft rates for the first half of 2006 were closest to that of 2002, and by using prior year trends 2006 is estimated to be a relatively low year for motor vehicle theft, with overall rates similar to 2002.

594 668 568 459654

491 567

661 613 601 718771

535

0

200

400

600

800

1000

1200

1400

1600

2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006

Second HalfFirst Half

1255 1281

1169 1177

1425

10261166

Half Year Analysis of ArsonJanuary- December

2000-2006

Note: Estimates are based upon similar first half year totals average.

The number of arsons in the first half of 2006 has been relatively low in comparison to past years, and the overall rate is estimated to be similar to that of 2003.

97132 129

86 10063 76

7972

115

93 122113

0

50

100

150

200

250

300

2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006

Second HalfFirst Half

176204

244

179

222

176 171

Half Year Analysis of Part I Crime in Camden CityJanuary – June 2006

Source: UCR Crime Data

A Geographic Look at Crime in Camden City

Source: 2000 US Census