half-yearly economic report 2020 and latest economic ... · sources : national healthcommissionof...

1

Half-yearly Economic Report 2020&

Latest economic forecasts for 2020

14 August 2020

Hong Kong SAR Government

1

2

Highlights of the economic situation in Q2 2020

• The Hong Kong economy remained very weak in Q2. Yet, as local epidemicreceded in May and June, and the rebound of the Mainland economy also renderedsupport to Hong Kong’s exports of goods, the overall economic situation tended tostabilise during the quarter

• Real GDP fell markedly by 9.0% year-on-year in Q2, and slightly by 0.1% from Q1

• Local consumption activities were severely disrupted by the threat of COVID-19.Yet the easing of social distancing requirements in May and June helped consumersentiment somewhat

• Exports of goods saw a visibly narrower decline; Exports of services plunged further, with inbound tourism remaining at a standstill

• Unemployment rate rose to the highest in over 15 years; Consumer price inflation eased visibly

0

50,000

100,000

150,000

200,000

250,000

300,000

二月

February三月

March四月

April五月

Ｍay六月

June七月

July八月一至十二日

1 - 12 August

內地

Mainland歐元區

Euro area美國

US印度

India巴西

Brazil其他

Others

數目

Number

3

每日平均新增確診個案Average daily number of confirmed new cases

資料來源：中華人民共和國國家衞生健康委員會及世界衞生組織。Sources : National Health Commission of the People’s Republic of China and the World Health Organization.

世界情況The world situation

The COVID-19 pandemic is still threatening many economies


• Global economic recovery is likely to be uneven and bumpy. The threat of the pandemic will continue to cloud the global economic outlook until an effective vaccine is widely available

• The tense China-US relations also fuel uncertainties

• Locally, the surge of COVID-19 infections since mid-July and the resultant tightening of social distancing measures have heavily weighed on private consumption and business sentiment. Containing the epidemic is pivotal to the recovery of local consumption activity

• Economic growth forecast for 2020 is revised downwards to -6% to -8%;Underlying inflation rate forecast is revised downwards to 1.8%

4

5

Economic performance in Q2 2020

The Hong Kong economy contracted sharply year-on-year in Q2 amid the severe blows of the COVID-19 pandemic, despite signs of

stabilisation during the quarter

6

Q12015

Q12016

Q12017

Q12018

Q12019

Q12020

-10

-8

-6

-4

-2

0

2

4

6

8

10

按年增減

Year-on-year change

經季節性調整後按季增減

Seasonally adjusted quarter-to-quarter change

實質增減率 (%)Rate of change in real terms (%)

本地生產總值

Gross Domestic Product

-9.0%

-0.1%

十年平均增長

10-year trend growth2.9%

7

External sector

7

70

指數與一年前比較的增減百分率 (以美元計算 ) Index Year-on-year rate of change in US dollar terms (%)

製造業採購經理指數 ̂ Manufacturing PMI^

Korea 台灣 JapanTaiwan

韓國

印度 India

日本

內地 The Mainland

20

15

10 60

5

0 50

-5

-10 40

-15

-20 30

-25

-30 Q1 Q1 Q1 Q1 Q1 Q1

20

美國及歐盟合計的貨物進口 # US and EU goods imports#選定亞洲經濟體輸往世界各地的貨物出口 * Selected Asian economies' goods exports to the world*選定亞洲經濟體之間的貿易往來 *& Trade flows among selected Asian economies*&香港輸往亞洲的貨物出口 Hong Kong's goods exports to Asia

01/18 07/18 01/19 07/19 01/20 07/20 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020

註： (^) 內地的數字為官方製造業採購經理指數；其他經濟體的數字為 Markit製造業採購經理指數。

(*)「選定亞洲經濟體」包括中國內地、香港、新加坡、韓國、台灣、日本、印尼、馬來西亞、泰國和菲律賓。

(&) 貿易往來根據「選定亞洲經濟體」之中個別經濟體輸往其他九個經濟體的貨物出口總和計算。

(#) 歐盟在二零二零年第二季的貨物進口是根據二零二零年八月中的資料計算。 Notes: (^) Official manufacturing PMI for the Mainland; Markit manufacturing PMI for other economies.

(*) “Selected Asian economies” include the Mainland of China, Hong Kong, Singapore, Korea, Taiwan, Japan, Indonesia, Malaysia, Thailand and the Philippines. (&) The trade flows were measured by the sum of the individual economies’ exports of goods to the other nine economies within the “selected Asian economies”. (#) EU goods imports for the second quarter of 2020 are based on the information available as of mid-August 2020. 88

Regional trade flows slackened further in Q2 amid production disruptions in many Asian economies

Q12015

Q12016

Q12017

Q12018

Q12019

Q12020

-15

-10

-5

0

5

10

15整體貨物出口

Total exports of goods

-2.4%

按年實質增減率 (%)Year-on-year rate of change in real terms (%)

2019 2020

Annual Q1 Q2

Mainland -5.1 -2.2 5.8

US -15.5 -25.9 -17.5

EU -7.4 -24.4 -9.0

Japan -7.5 -15.7 -1.6

India -11.7 -0.1 -43.3

Korea -0.2 -8.9 -10.8

Singapore 8.2 -14.8 -23.1

Exports of goods to the Mainland turned to a solid increase, but those to many other major markets saw declines of varying degrees

Total exports of goods by major markets

Year-on-year rate of change in real terms (%)

9

10

Exports of services plunged further, registering the sharpest decline on record

10

Q12015

Q12016

Q12017

Q12018

Q12019

Q12020

-50

-40

-30

-20

-10

0

10

20服務輸出

Exports of services

-46.1%


1111

Exports of services


Exports of travel services came to a halt; Declines in exports of transport, business and other services remained notable, but exports of financial

services still kept rising

Travel TransportFinancial services

Business and other services

2019 Annual -21.0 -7.6 -2.1 -3.8

Q3 -31.3 -10.7 -2.7 -5.1

Q4 -52.6 -15.4 -2.1 -5.0

2020 Q1 -80.6 -32.2 1.3 -13.7

Q2 -97.1 -37.7 4.0 -13.8

12

Domestic sector

12

13

Private consumption expenditure recorded the steepest ever decline, as local consumption activities were severely disrupted by the threat

of COVID-19

13

Q12015

Q12016

Q12017

Q12018

Q12019

Q12020

-20

-15

-10

-5

0

5

10

15


-14.2%

私人消費開支

Private consumption expenditure

14

Declines in retail sales and restaurant receipts narrowed in May and June along with receding local epidemic

-60

-50

-40

-30

-20

-10

0

10

20

30

40

01/2018 04/2018 07/2018 10/2018 01/2019 04/2019 07/2019 10/2019 01/2020 04/2020

食肆收益量

Restaurant receipts volume零售銷售量

Retail sales volume

按年增減率 (%)Year-on-year rate of change (%)

-16.8%

-25.4%

06/2020

Q12015

Q12016

Q12017

Q12018

Q12019

Q12020

-25

-20

-15

-10

-5

0

5

10

15

按年實質增減率 (%)Year-on-year rate of change in real terms (%)按年實質增減率 (%)Year-on-year rate of change in real terms (%)

-21.4%

本地固定資本形成總額

Gross domestic fixed capital formation

15

Overall investment expenditure continued to tumble amid negative business environment

15


Overall investment expenditure

Machinery, equipment and

intellectual property products

Building and construction

2019 Annual -20.0 -6.2

Q1 -2.0 -4.3Q2 -12.2 -11.1Q3 -26.5 -2.8Q4 -32.3 -6.5

2020 Q1 -17.9 -11.5

Q2 -44.1 -3.6

16

Labour market

16

失業率 (%) Unemployment rate (%)

12

10

8

較低技術勞工 Lower-skilled workers

整體 Overall

專業及管理員工 Professional and managerial staff

7.3%

6.2% 6

4 3.8%

2

0 Q1 2000

Q1 2001

Q1 2002

Q1 2003

Q1 2004

Q1 2005

Q1 2006

Q1 2007

Q1 2008

Q1 2009

Q1 2010

Q1 2011

Q1 2012

Q1 2013

Q1 2014

Q1 2015

Q1 2016

Q1 2017

Q1 2018

Q1 2019

Q1 2020

註：Note:

除整體失業率外，其他均為未經季節性調整數字。 Not seasonally adjusted except the overall unemployment rate.

1717

Labour market continued to deteriorate with unemployment rate surging to the highest in more than 15 years

按年增減率 (%) 失業率 (%) Year-on-year rate of change (%)

30

20

10

0

-10

-20

-30

-40

-50

-60

-70

-80

-90

-100

零售銷售量 volume

Retail sales volume

訪港旅客 Visitor arrivals

食肆收益量 Restaurant receipts

Unemployment rate(%)16

零售、住宿及膳食服務業 Retail, accommodation and food services sectors

餐飲服務活動業 Food and beverage service

activities sector

零售業 Retail sector

14.7% 14

12

10.7%10

-26.9% -32.5% 8 7.7%

6

4

2

-99.8% 0 Q1 Q1 Q1 Q1 Q1 Q1 Q1 Q1 Q1 Q1 Q1 Q1 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020

1818

Unemployment rates of the consumption- and tourism-relatedsectors saw particularly visible increases

Year-on-year rate of change (%)

Nominal growth Real growth

Index of payroll per person engaged (Q1 2020) 3.2 1.2

Wage index (March 2020) 2.2 -0.3

Average monthly employment earnings of full-time employees of the lowest three decile groups (Q2 2020) 3.7 2.1

Median monthly household income (Q2 2020) -10.2 -11.3

1919

Note: (*) Excluding foreign domestic helpers.

Income*

Wages growth decelerated, and household income fell sharply

20

Inflation

20

21

各主要組成項目對基本綜合消費物價指數按年變動率的貢獻Contribution to the year-on-year rate of change in the underlying Composite Consumer Price Index (CCPI)

by major component

21

1.2 0.9 0.8 0.8

0.4 0.6 0.7 0.7 0.9 1.0 1.0 0.8 0.9 1.1

1.7 1.7 1.8 1.3

1.3

1.1 0.9 0.7

0.6 0.7 0.6 0.7

0.8 0.9 1.0 1.1 1.0

1.0

0.8 0.8 0.6

0.4

2.8

2.3 2.1 2.1

1.4

2.0 1.7 1.6

2.4 2.4 2.8 2.9

2.7 2.9

3.3 3.0 2.9

1.8

0.0

0.5

1.0

1.5

2.0

2.5

3.0

3.5

4.0

4.5

5.0

5.5

6.0

Q1 16 Q2 16 Q3 16 Q4 16 Q1 17 Q2 17 Q3 17 Q4 17 Q1 18 Q2 18 Q3 18 Q4 18 Q1 19 Q2 19 Q3 19 Q4 19 Q1 20 Q2 20

其他

Others交通

Transport私人房屋租金

Private housing rent食品

Food基本綜合消費物價指數

Underlying CCPI

(%)(%)

Consumer price inflation went visibly lower, as the year-on-year rise in pork prices slowed and price pressures on many other components receded

22

Property market

22

註：中小型單位指實用面積小於100平方米的單位，而大型單位指實用面積至

少達100平方米的單位。

Note: Small/medium-sized flats refer to those with a saleable area of less than 100 m2, while large flats refer to those with a saleable area of at least 100 m2. 2323

85

95

105

115

125

135

07/15 01/16 07/16 01/17 07/17 01/18 07/18 01/19 07/19 01/20 0

1 000

2 000

3 000

4 000

5 000

6 000

7 000

8 000

9 000

09/15 03/16 09/16 03/17 09/17 03/18 09/18 03/19 09/19 03/20

買賣合約數目

Agreements received

2000-2019年每月平均

2000-2019 monthly average

住宅售價

Flat prices住宅物業買賣合約數目

No. of S&P agreements for residential property指數(二零一五年七月=100)Index (Jul 2015=100)

中小型單位價格指數

Small/medium-sized flats price index

整體住宅價格指數

Overall residential price index

大型單位價格指數

Large flats price index

The residential property market turned active in Q2

2424

Index of home purchase affordability (i.e. mortgage repayment to income ratio) worsened

00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 200

10

20

30

40

50

60

70

80

90

100

供款相對入息比率^ (%)Repayment-income ratio^ (%)

2000-2019年平均數: 452000-2019 average : 45

45平方米單位的按揭供款(假設按揭成數為70%及年期為20年) 相對住戶入息中位數 (不包括居於公營房屋的住戶) 的比率。這比率與

金管局公布的平均供款與入息比率不同，後者是新批按揭貸款申請人的每月償還債務與每月收入的比率。

The ratio of mortgage payment for a flat with saleable area of 45 sq m (assuming 70% loan-to-value ratio and tenor of 20 years) to median incomeof households (excluding those living in public housing). This ratio is different from the debt servicing ratio published by the HKMA, which is theratio of actual monthly debt obligations of mortgagees to their monthly income of newly approved mortgages.

註︰ (^)

Note : (^)

(%)

負擔較重

LessAffordable

2020年第二季 : 762020Q2 : 76

25

Total medium-term private flat supply would stay at a high level of 92 000 units

25

Q12006

Q12007

Q12008

Q12009

Q12010

Q12011

Q12012

Q12013

Q12014

Q12015

Q12016

Q12017

Q12018

Q12019

Q12020

50 000

60 000

70 000

80 000

90 000

100 000

住宅單位數目

Number of domestic units

未來三至四年可提供的私人住宅單位數目

Number of domestic units in the private sector to be available in the coming three to four years

以上數字包括已落成樓宇但仍未售出的單位數目、建築中而且尚未預售的單位數目，及已批出土地並可隨時動工的項目。

運輸及房屋局。

The above figures included unsold units in completed projects, units under construction but not yet sold by presale, and units from disposed sites whereconstruction may start anytime.Transport and Housing Bureau.

註︰

資料來源：

Note :

Source :

26

Outlook for the rest of 2020

26

The global economy shows signs of bottoming out,but COVID-19 remains a key threat to near-term outlook

Mainland: The economy has returned to solid growth due to successful containment of the epidemic at an early stage

US: The economy shrank sharply in Q2, but has shown signs of stabilisation in the latter half of the quarter

Euro area: The economy contracted at a historic rate in Q2, but economic sentiment improved in recent months

Rest of Asia: Many economies are troubled by the epidemic, weighing on regional trade flows

27

指數指數 Index Index

70製造業採購經理指數 ̂ Manufacturing PMI^

歐元區 Euro area

美國 US

內地 The Mainland

70

60 60

50

50 40

30 40

20

30 10

0 20

美國 US

歐元區 Euro area

服務業採購經理指數 * Services PMI*

內地 The Mainland

01/18 07/18 01/19 07/19 01/20 07/20 01/18 07/18 01/19 07/19 01/20 07/20

註：

Notes:

(^) 內地的數字為官方製造業採購經理指數；其他經濟體的數字為 Markit製造業採購經理指數。 (*) 內地的數字為官方非製造業採購經理指數；其他經濟體的數字為 Markit服務業採購經理指數。 (^) Official manufacturing PMI for the Mainland; Markit manufacturing PMI for other economies. (*) Official non-manufacturing PMI for the Mainland; Markit services PMI for other economies. 28

The US and the euro area economies should have got out of their troughs, and the Mainland economy will likely show solid growth

IMF forecasts for IMF forecasts for

World

GDP growth in 2019

2020 GDP growth 2021 GDP growth

JunChange between

Jun and AprJun

Change between Jun and Apr

2.9 -4.9 -1.9 5.4 -0.4

US 2.2 -8.0 -2.1 4.5 -0.2

Euro area 1.3 -10.2 -2.7 6.0 +1.3

Japan 0.7 -5.8 -0.6 2.4 -0.6

Mainland China 6.1 1.0 -0.2 8.2 -1.0

Developing Asia 5.5 -0.8 -1.8 7.4 -1.1

Emerging market and developing economies

3.7 -3.0 -2.0 5.9 -0.7

29

In view of the severe impacts of COVID-19 in the first half of the year and envisaged slower recovery in the second half, the IMF projected a deeper global recession for 2020

二月三月四月五月六月七月 February March April Ｍ ay June July

每十萬人中新增確診個案數目每十萬人中新增確診個案數目

600Number of new cases per 100 000 population

25Number of new cases per 100 000 population

500 20

400 15

300

10

200

5 100

0 0

感染率相對較高 Relatively higher infection rate

感染率相對較低 Relatively lower infection rate

美國歐元區英國巴西內地南韓馬來西亞日本 US Euro area UK Brazil Mainland South Korea Malaysia Japan

資料來源：中華人民共和國國家衞生健康委員會、英國衞生及社會關懷部及世界衞生組織。 Sources: National Health Commission of the People’s Republic of China, Department of Health and Social Care of the UK and the World Health Organization.

30

In the Mainland, the spread of COVID-19 has been well contained since March;Other economies generally faced more severe epidemic situations in Q2

31

註： (*) 淨差額展現了業務狀況預期較前一季的變動方向。它是填報「較佳」的機構單位百分比與填報「較差」的機構單位百分比的差距。正數指可能向上趨升，而負數則為可能跌勢。

Note: (*) Net balance indicates the direction of expected change in business situation versus the preceding quarter. It refers to the difference inpercentage points between the proportion of establishments choosing “better” over that choosing “worse”. A positive sign indicates a likelyupward trend while a negative sign indicates a likely downward trend.

Business sentiment among large enterprises was less pessimistic on entering the third quarter

-60

-50

-40

-30

-20

-10

0

10

20

30

40

50

60

-10

-8

-6

-4

-2

0

2

4

6

8

10

Q12008

Q12009

Q12010

Q12011

Q12012

Q12013

Q12014

Q12015

Q12016

Q12017

Q12018

Q12019

Q12020

統計處「業務展望按季統計調查」 -

業務狀況預期變動 (淨差額) (右標線)C&SD's Quarterly Business Tendency Survey -

Expected change in business situation (net balance) (RHS)

淨差額* (百分點)Net balance* (% point)

按年增減率 (%)Year-on-year rate of change (%)

實質本地生產總值(左標線)

Real GDP growth (LHS)

32

Surging local infections since the second week of July

0

500

1,000

1,500

2,000

2,500

3,000

3,500

4,000

4,500

5,000

0

50

100

150

200

250

300

350

400

450

500

22/01 05/02 19/02 04/03 18/03 01/04 15/04 29/04 13/05 27/05 10/06 24/06 08/07 22/07 05/08

單日個案 (左標線)Daily number of cases (LHS)

單日個案 (七日移動平均數) (左標線)Daily number of cases (7-day moving average) (LHS)

累計個案 (右標線)Cumulative number of cases (RHS)

數目

Number數目

Number

香港的新冠病毒感染個案數目

Number of COVID-19 infection cases in Hong Kong

13/08

01/15 01/16 01/17 01/18 01/19 01/2010

20

30

40

50

60

30

35

40

45

50

55

01/15 01/16 01/17 01/18 01/19 01/2015

20

25

30

35

40

45

50

55

60

65

指數

Index

中小企調查

Surveys on SMEs

渣打香港中小企

領先營商指數῀Standard Chartered Hong Kong SME Leading Business Index῀

政府統計處編製的中小企

業務收益動向指數^Diffusion index^ on business receipts

for SMEs compiled by C&SD

其他調查

Other surveys指數

Index指數

Index

動向指數是按報稱「上升」的中小企百分比，加上報稱「相同」的中小企百分比的一半計算。動向指數高於50表示業務狀況普遍向好，低

於50則表示情況恰恰相反。受訪企業在填報意見時已撇除季節性因素的影響。

自二零一二年第三季開始提供的季度數據。

指數高於50，表示超過一半受訪貿易商的意見傾向正面，可解讀為業務向好和信心增強；指數低於50則表示情況恰恰相反。

The diffusion index is computed by adding the percentage of SMEs reporting “up” to one half of the percentage of SMEs reporting “same”. A diffusion index reading above 50 indicates that the business condition is generally favourable, whereas an index below 50 indicates otherwise. Respondents were requested to exclude seasonal effects in reporting their views.Launched in Q3 2012 and quarterly data.A reading above 50 indicates that more than half of the surveyed traders incline towards the upside, which can be interpreted as an upward trend and an increase in confidence, and vice versa for a reading below 50.

註︰ (^)

(~)(*)

Notes : (^)

(~)(*)

Markit 香港採購經理指數 (左標線)Markit Hong Kong PMI (LHS)

香港貿易發展局

出口指數* (右標線)Hong Kong Trade Development Council’s Export Index* (RHS)

33

More recent surveys showed that business sentiment worsened again

34

The threat of COVID-19 will continue to cloud the global economic outlook until an effective vaccine or treatment is widely available, with recovery path likely to be uneven and bumpy

The tense China-US relations and heightened geopolitical tensions also fuel uncertainties

Locally, the recent surge of COVID-19 infections and the resultant tightening of social distancing measures have weighed heavily on private consumption and business sentiment

The strength and speed of recovery in the Hong Kong economy will depend much on how fast local infection can be brought under control and also the progress of global economic recovery. The Government has been implementing the relief measures under the Anti-epidemic Fund and the 2020-21 Budget at full steam to safeguard jobs, support enterprises and relieve people’s financial burdens

Hong Kong’s near-term economic outlook is still highly uncertain

35

Latest economic forecasts for 2020 as a whole

Forecasts as released on 15 May Latest forecasts

Real GDP growth -4% to -7%* -6% to -8%

Underlying inflation 2.2% 1.8%

Headline inflation 1.4% 0.8%

35Note: (*) Announced by the Financial Secretary on 29 April.

36

Half-yearly Economic Report 2020&


14 August 2020

Hong Kong SAR Government

36

half-yearly economic report 2020 and latest economic ... · sources : national healthcommissionof...

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