halifax index presentation 2013

The Halifax Index An economic gut check with insights for action

May 22nd, 2013

Fred Morley Executive Vice-President and Chief Economist

The Halifax Index

• A gut check on our performance • Share timely and relevant information in narrative form • Create a dialogue that allows us to ask the right questions • Affirm actions and suggest course corrections to our

Economic Strategy

The Halifax Index Approach

• Broadening the definition of economic progress; • Working with research capable organizations to find the most

accurate measures of success; • Benchmarking our progress against others; • Don’t point fingers, build partnerships.

Economic Progress

Quality of Life

Economic Growth

Sustainability

People

People

People

Population

Education Labour Force

Workforce Stability

Population

Population Estimates

Migration, Halifax

2011-12 Migration, Benchmarks

3288

1473

3250 3286

4970

1913

-2000

-1000

0

1000

2000

3000

4000

5000

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Halifax St. John's Quebec City London Regina Victoria

Education University Enrolment

Community College Enrolment

Labour Force Labour Force Size

Employment

Labour Force

Participation Rates

Unemployment Rates

Workforce Stability

10.2 10.4 9.6 8.2

10.0 11.1

Halifax St. John's

Quebec City

London Regina Victoria

2010 2011

Absence rates of full-time employees – illness, Disability, personal or family responsibility

0.021

0.007

0.027

0.010 0.000

0.034

Nov

a Sc

otia

New

foun

dlan

d

Que

bec

Ont

ario

Sask

atch

ewan

Briti

sh C

olum

bia

2011 2012

Per capita days lost due to strike

Economy

Economy Gross

Domestic Product

Sectors

Consumer Behaviour

Construction Commercial

Space

Gateway Movement

Business Confidence

GDP

Real GDP, Winter Publication ($2002)

Per capita real GDP ($2002)

GDP Forecast – Conference Board

Sectors

Which city is Halifax’s diverse sector mix closest to?

Answer: Toronto

Consumer Behaviour

Retail sales - $ millions

Housing Starts and Sales

Construction

Building permits

Non-residential construction

Commercial Space Commercial inventory and vacancy rates

Gateway

3,594,164

243,577

3,605,701

252,847

Air Passengers (En/Deplaned) Cruise Passengers

2011 2012

410,649

29,263

416,572

29,569

TEUs Air Cargo

2011 2012

Air and cruise passengers

Air cargo and twenty-foot equivalents

Business Confidence

Business Confidence

15%

64%

16%

5%

19%

59%

18%

4%

Above Average Just Average Below Average Don't Know/No Answer

Spring 2012 Spring 2013

Rating of Halifax as a place to do business

12%

74%

10% 2% 2%

10%

77%

11% 1% 1%

Extremely Optimistic

Moderately Optimistic

Not Very Optimistic

Not at all Optimistic

Don't Know/No Answer


Optimism of current economic prospects in Halifax

Quality of Place

Quality of Place Safety

Affordability

Health

Community

Arts, Culture, and

Recreation

Safety

Total and violent crime indices

Safety

15%

76%

2% 4% 2%

19%

65%

2% 7% 1%

Completely Satisfied

Mostly Satisfied

Neither Satisfied nor Dissatisfied

Mostly Dissatisfied

Completely Dissatisfied


Business satisfaction with police services

Affordability Personal income per capita

Market basket measure threshhold

Affordability

Persons in low income – below market basket measure

Health Perceived health – good or excellent

Perceived mental health – good or excellent

Community Sense of belonging to local community Somewhat or very strong

Life satisfaction Satisfied or very satisfied

Arts, Culture and Recreation HRM registrations in library and Recreation programs

Sustainability

Sustainability

Density

Transportation Environment

Municipal Fiscal Sustainability

Density Persons per km2 , urban areas

# of permits and value, Regional Centre And rest of HRM, 2012-13

Regional Centre Residual HRM Total Value Permits Total Value Permits

2011 $112,138,880 313 $366,145,609 495 2012 $274,183,327 321 $334,241,514 360

% of Value in RC - 2011 23.40%

% of Value in RC - 2012 45.10%

Transportation % of riders satisfied with transit

Total riders and hours of service

Environment

Nov

a Sc

otia

New

foun

dlan

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Que

bec

Ont

ario

Sask

atch

ewan

Briti

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olum

bia

Drinking water quality

A- B B- A

B- C+

Environment

Waste per capita (tonnes) and diversion rate

Municipal Fiscal Sustainability

Residential/Commercial Tax Split, Municipal

Revenues by Source, HRM

Commercial Tax Base

$5,739,143,000

$6,101,700,400

$6,507,667,200

2010 2011 2012

Special Analysis Is Halifax’s labour market sustainable?

David Fleming – Economist

Labour Force Analysis

• An expanded labour force analysis against 12 other Canadian cities

• Outcomes by – gender and age • In 2014 – ethnicity and immigration outcomes (with NHS

release)

Overall – Labour Force & Employment Change – 2006 to 2012

-5.0% 0.0% 5.0% 10.0% 15.0% 20.0% 25.0%

Canada

Halifax

St. John's

Quebec City

Montreal

London

Toronto

Ottawa

Winnipeg

Regina

Edmonton

Calgary

Vancouver

Victoria

Halifax Growth Labour Force 11.1% - 9th Employment 9.8% - 8th

Participation/Unemployment Rates 2012

0.0% 10.0% 20.0% 30.0% 40.0% 50.0% 60.0% 70.0% 80.0%

Canada

Halifax

St. John's

Quebec City

Montreal

London

Toronto

Ottawa

Winnipeg

Regina

Edmonton

Calgary

Vancouver

Victoria

Halifax Participation 69.8% - 7th Unemployment 6.1% - 7th

Gender

Population 2012 – 000’s

0 500 1000 1500 2000 2500 3000

Halifax

St. John's

Quebec City

Montreal

London

Toronto

Ottawa

Winnipeg

Regina

Edmonton

Calgary

Vancouver

Victoria

Male Female

Halifax Growth 2006-2012 Female: 9.4% - 7th Male: 10% - 8th

Labour Force – 000’s

0 500 1000 1500 2000

Halifax

St. John's

Quebec City

Montreal

London

Toronto

Ottawa

Winnipeg

Regina

Edmonton

Calgary

Vancouver

Victoria

Male Female

Two cities with more women than men in labour force (Halifax and Victoria) Halifax Growth 2006-2012 Female: 13.7% - 4th Male: 8.5% - 10th

Employment - 000’s

0 200 400 600 800 1000 1200 1400 1600 1800

Halifax

St. John's

Quebec City

Montreal

London

Toronto

Ottawa

Winnipeg

Regina

Edmonton

Calgary

Vancouver

Victoria

Female Male

Two cities with more women than men with Jobs (Halifax and Victoria) Halifax Growth 2006-2012 Female: 13.7% - 4th Male: 8.5% - 10th

Unemployment/Participation Rates

0.0% 50.0% 100.0%

Halifax St. John's

Quebec City Montreal

London Toronto Ottawa

Winnipeg Regina

Edmonton Calgary

Vancouver Victoria

Female Male

Participation, 2012

0.0% 2.0% 4.0% 6.0% 8.0% 10.0%

Halifax St. John's

Quebec City Montreal

London Toronto Ottawa

Winnipeg Regina

Edmonton Calgary

Vancouver Victoria

Female Male

Unemployment, 2012

Unemployment/Participation

Overall Halifax 2012 Participation Rates: Male: 72.5% - 7th Female: 67.5% - 6th Overall Halifax 2012 Unemployment Rates: Male: 6.8% - 7th Female: 5.5% - 5th Spread between male/female participation rate in Halifax lowest among cities; highest spread between unemployment rates

Why are women doing comparatively better in Halifax?

One possible reason – alignment of education and growth sectors

Program % of enrolled who are female in Maritime

universities

Health care, social assistance and education made up over 50% of new jobs since 2006

Health professions

Social sciences

Education

81%

62%

71%

15-24 – Labour Force and Employment Change 2006-2012

-20.0% -15.0% -10.0% -5.0% 0.0% 5.0% 10.0% 15.0% 20.0% 25.0%

Canada

Halifax

St. John's

Quebec City

Montreal

London

Toronto

Ottawa

Winnipeg

Regina

Edmonton

Calgary

Vancouver

Victoria

Employment Labour Force

Halifax Growth Labour Force -0.3%- 6th Employment -3.4%- 6th

15-24 Unemployment/Participation Rates 2012

0.0% 10.0% 20.0% 30.0% 40.0% 50.0% 60.0% 70.0% 80.0%

Canada

Halifax

St. John's

Quebec City

Montreal

London

Toronto

Ottawa

Winnipeg

Regina

Edmonton

Calgary

Vancouver

Victoria

Unemployment Rate Participation Rate


6th highest spread Between UE of 15+ and UE of 15-24

25-44 – Labour Force and Employment Change 2006-2012

Halifax Growth Labour Force 0.9%- 11th Employment -1.2%- 12th

-5.0% 0.0% 5.0% 10.0% 15.0% 20.0% 25.0% 30.0% 35.0%

Canada

Halifax

St. John's

Quebec City

Montreal

London

Toronto

Ottawa

Winnipeg

Regina

Edmonton

Calgary

Vancouver

Victoria


25-44 Unemployment/Participation Rates 2012


Halifax had 2nd highest increase in UE since 2006 – 4.2% to 6.2%

0.0% 20.0% 40.0% 60.0% 80.0% 100.0%

Canada

Halifax

St. John's

Quebec City

Montreal

London

Toronto

Ottawa

Winnipeg

Regina

Edmonton

Calgary

Vancouver

Victoria


45+ – Labour Force and Employment Change 2006-2012

Halifax Growth Labour Force 30.1% - 1st Employment 30.3% - 1st Halifax also ranks 1st in 55+ and 65+ LF growth

0.0% 5.0% 10.0% 15.0% 20.0% 25.0% 30.0% 35.0%

Canada

Halifax

St. John's

Quebec City

Montreal

London

Toronto

Ottawa

Winnipeg

Regina

Edmonton

Calgary

Vancouver

Victoria


45+ Unemployment/Participation Rates 2012


Halifax had 2nd highest spread Between 45+ UE and 15+ UE – 2.6%

0.0% 10.0% 20.0% 30.0% 40.0% 50.0% 60.0% 70.0%

Canada

Halifax

St. John's

Quebec City

Montreal

London

Toronto

Ottawa

Regina

Calgary

Vancouver

Victoria


Halifax Labour Force and Employment 2006-2012

15-24 25-44 45+

Labour Force – Actual (000’s) -0.1 0.9 23.1

Employment – Actual (000’s) -1.2 -1.1 22.4

Labour Force - % of Total -0.4% 3.8% 96.7%

Employment - % of Total -6.0% -5.5% 111.4%

Steps towards ensuring a sustainable workforce

• Labour market education for youth

• Flexible work strategies to maximize productivity

• Workforce development through partnership

• Young and foreign student entrepreneurship

Special Analysis A Halifax Innovation Agenda

Canada’s Innovation Problem

Conference Board of Canada’s annual How Canada Performs Publication Canada particularly struggles in: exports, venture capital, patents, ICT investment and connectivity, business R & D Spending Scientific research and creation of new business is high, however they lack the follow through towards commercial products and services

Why does innovation matter? “Innovation is essential to a high-performing economy. Overall, countries that are more innovative are passing Canada on measures such as income per capita, productivity, and the quality of social programs.

It is also critical to environmental protection, a high-performing education system, a well-functioning system of health promotion and health care, and an inclusive society. Without innovation, all these systems stagnate and Canada’s performance deteriorates relative to that of its peers.” – CBOC

• These critical systems are at the heart of our broader definition of economic and community progress – and why the Halifax Index was developed.

Nova Scotia’s R & D Investment Deficit Per capita investment in R & D -2009

$0 $100 $200 $300 $400 $500 $600

Federal Government

Provincial Government

Business Enterprise

Higher Education

Private Non-Profit

Foreign British Columbia

Ontario

Quebec

Newfoundland

Nova Scotia

Canada

Compared to national average: • Foreign: 15% • Business: 23% • Provincial: 29%

Business Intentions - Halifax

R & D – Relationship to other outcomes

Developing a Halifax Innovation Agenda

• Develop more industry-driven university and college partnerships aimed at commercialization

• Mitigate the risk of new entrepreneurship through support for cluster incubation and acceleration

• Foster the development of private-sector led regional business clusters around industries that are already succeeding

• Adjust our culture from risk-adverse to one with an abundance of support for new ideas, opportunities and partnerships - making winning bets