halstead real estate - manhattan new development report 2017 · 2017-10-03 · year from $2,070 psf...
TRANSCRIPT
New Development Report
*Available inventory includes all units currently on the market as well as those not yet released.
Third Quarter
BROOKLYNMANHATTAN
AVERAGE PRICE PER SQ. FT. CLOSED
$1,379AVERAGE PRICE PER SQ. FT. CLOSED
$2,096
AVAILABLE INVENTORY (UNITS)*
683AVAILABLE INVENTORY (UNITS)*
6,099
AVERAGE PRICE PER SQ. FT. CONTRACT SIGNED
AVERAGE PRICE PER SQ. FT. ACTIVE
$1,423
$1,468
$2,138
$2,537
AVERAGE PRICE PER SQ. FT. CONTRACT SIGNED
AVERAGE PRICE PER SQ. FT. ACTIVE
3% QoQ 10% QoQ
2017
MANHATTAN BROOKLYN
Summary Points
HPDM | HPDMNY.COM | 2017 Third Quarter Report | 2
MEDIAN PRICE PER SQ. FT.
Active $2,270 $1,439
Contract Signed $2,040 $1,389
Closed $1,868 $1,332
AVERAGE PRICE PER SQ. FT.
Active $2,537 $1,468
Contract Signed $2,138 $1,423
Closed $2,096 $1,379
MEDIAN PRICE
Active $3,900,000 $2,100,000
Contract Signed $2,250,000 $1,445,000
Closed $2,443,184 $975,000
AVERAGE PRICE
Active $6,505,264 $2,481,600
Contract Signed $3,512,576 $1,642,164
Closed $3,913,847 $1,463,415
TOTAL INVENTORY (UNITS)
Total 12,287 2,215
Units Available 6,099 683
% Closed or Contract Signed
50.4% 69.2%
In Brooklyn, new development entering into
contract averaged $1,423 PSF, essentially flat quarter-over-quarter and up 1.1% year-over-year. Brooklyn pricing remains strong as eight of the last ten quarters have shown a rising average PPSF for units entering contract, and this marks the third consecutive quarter of rising or flat pricing. Avg. PPSF for closed new development in Brooklyn rose 2.5% year-over-year to $1,379.
Harlem experienced the largest quarter-
over-quarter Avg. PPSF increase in Manhattan at 26.4% for sold units (contract signed and closed), rising to $1,526 due primarily to closings at 285 West 110th Street. Downtown Manhattan remained flat quarter-over-quarter while other major Manhattan neighborhoods were down between 1.6% (Midtown East) and 5.7% (Midtown West).
In Manhattan, just over 310 units entered into contract in Q3 2017, a decrease of 10.2% quarter-over-quarter and 11.7% year-over-year. In Brooklyn, nearly 60 units entered into contract in Q3 2017,
a 54.2% decrease quarter-over-quarter and a 38.7% decrease year-over-year from over 90 units in Q3 2016. This decrease reflects a lack of large projects launching in key Brooklyn neighborhoods, inhibiting supply in key price points below $2M, as only four projects with more than 20 units launched in 2017. These numbers include units that entered into contract and closed within the same quarter.
In Manhattan, pricing for new development units entering into contract in Q3 2017 fell 1.6% quarter-over-quarter to $2,138 PSF from $2,172 in Q2 2017, but rose 3.3% year-over-
year from $2,070 PSF in Q3 2016. This marks the third consecutive quarter of falling average PPSF in Manhattan. Avg. PPSF for closed new development units fell 4.4% quarter-over-quarter to $2,096, and fell 7.7% from $2,271 in Q3 2016 as fewer super luxury units closed than in previous quarters.
In Manhattan, the total percentage of new development deals entering contract under $5M rose to 86.2% from 77% in Q2 2017. Conversely, the percentage of deals over $5M fell to 13.8% from
23% in Q2 2017 as absorption in the luxury market has slowed.
$1,423 PSF
310 UNITS
$2,138 PSF
26.4%
86.2%
HPDM | HPDMNY.COM | 2017 Third Quarter Report | 3
Introduction METHODOLOGY:
§ All data is provided by proprietary
Halstead Property Development
Marketing research.
§ This report tracks new development
projects only, defined as those new
to the market and currently selling
sponsor units. Buildings that have
fully sold out of sponsor units are
not included, even though they may
be newly built. Resale data is not
included in this report.
§ All listings were compiled as
of 9/18/17.
§§ Total§Inventory is defined as all units
within new development projects
that are currently listed as Active,
Contract Signed, or Closed, as well
as those units not yet released
to the market. Available§Units is
defined as new development units
that are currently listed as Active
as well as those not yet released
to the market. These numbers
include units released prior to 2017,
provided they are in a project that
has not sold out all sponsor units.
By including currently unreleased
units that are not yet listed as
Active this data provides a unique
and comprehensive analysis of the
current new development market.
TABLE OF CONTENTS
MARKET OVERVIEW ... . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .5
MARKET OVERVIEW BY QUARTER ... . . . . . . . . . . . . 6
MANHATTAN NEIGHBORHOOD INSIGHT ... . . . .7
ANALYSIS BY UNIT TYPE ... . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .8
PRICE POINT ANALYSIS ... . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 9
TOTAL INVENTORY ... . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .11
FURTHER INSIGHT ... . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 12
HPDM is pleased to present our New
Development Report for Q3 2017.
This report focuses exclusively on the
NYC new development condominium
market, and aims to be the only report
of its kind presenting a comprehensive
picture of new development activity.
New development is unique from
the overall real estate market in that
closings often do not occur for 12 to
18 months after a buyer enters into
contract. Therefore, to understand
this market it is critical to track active
listings, listings in contract, closed
listings, as well as total inventory. This
report analyzes Q3 2017 as a whole
and is a snapshot of current new
development market conditions.
In Manhattan, pricing for new
development units entering into
contract in Q3 2017 fell 1.6% quarter-
over-quarter to $2,138 PSF from $2,172
in Q2 2017, but rose 3.3% year-over-
year from $2,070 PSF in Q3 2016.
Avg. PPSF for closed new development
units fell 4.4% quarter-over-quarter to
$2,096, and fell 7.7% from $2,271 in Q3
2016. In Brooklyn, new development
entering into contract averaged
$1,423 PSF, essentially flat quarter-
over-quarter and up 1.1% year-over-
year. Avg. PPSF for closed new
development in Brooklyn rose 2.5%
year-over-year to $1,379.
HPDM | HPDMNY.COM | 2017 Third Quarter Report | 5
NUMBER OF UNITS
GROUND UP CONVERSIONS NUMBER OF UNITS
100
200
300
400
500
600
$1,000
$2,000
$3,000
$4,000
$5,000
$6,000
HARLEM UWS UES MIDTOWN WEST BILLIONAIRE'S ROW* MIDTOWN EAST DOWNTOWN BROOKLYN**
Ground Up vs. Conversions - Avg. Price per Sq. Ft.
25
46
101
91
6
44
382
230
$1,
526
$2,0
12
$1,
623
$4
,95
5
$2,4
56
$2,3
56
$1,
35
8$2,0
30
$2,1
63
$1,
76
7
$1,
773
$2,2
84
$1,
49
6
$1,
46
9
CONTRACT SIGNED AND CLOSED
GROUND-UP VS. CONVERSIONS — AVG. PRICE PER SQ. FT.
Market OverviewDowntown continued to see the most development activity in Manhattan in Q3 2017 with more than 380 units either entering
into contract or closing. Next to Billionaire’s Row, Downtown shows the highest Avg. Active Price per Sq. Ft. at $2,639. The
highest Avg. Price per Sq. Ft. for Contract Signed deals in Q3 2017 occurred Downtown, with an average of $2,229 PSF,
remaining flat year-over-year.
ACTIVE, CONTRACT SIGNED, CLOSED — AVG. PRICE PER SQ. FT.
*Billionaire's Row comprised of: 432 Park Ave, 53 W 53rd, 520 Park Avenue*Brooklyn neighborhoods tracked: Bedford Stuyvesant, Boerum Hill, Brooklyn Heights, Bushwick, Carroll Gardens, Clinton Hill, Crown Heights, Downtown Brooklyn, DUMBO, Greenpoint, Park Slope, Prospect Heights, Redhook, Williamsburg
ACTIVE CONTRACT SIGNED CLOSED
$2,3
30
$2,1
19
$2,5
04
$2,8
79
$1,
96
3
$1,
75
0
$3
,911
$2,1
43
$2,4
22
$1,
726
$1,
924
$1,
619
$1,
90
8
$2,0
17
$2,2
26$
2,0
66
$1,
49
7
$2,3
20
$2,1
04
$1,
98
8$1,
529
$2,1
26
$1,
90
0
$1,
819
$2,0
77
$1,
85
9
$1,
73
8
$5
,89
8
$8,16
3
$4
,314
$2,3
40
$2,1
60
$2,2
89
$2,6
39
$2,2
29
$2,4
30
$1,
46
8
$1,
423
$1,
379
HARLEM UWS UES MIDTOWN WEST BILLIONAIRE'S ROW*
MIDTOWN EAST DOWNTOWN BROOKLYN**
$9,000
$8,000
$7,000
$6,000
$5,000
$4,000
$3,000
$2,000
$1,000
HPDM | HPDMNY.COM | 2017 Third Quarter Report | 6
$2,3
25
$1,
24
5
Q4 2016 Q1 2017 Q2 2017 Q3 2017
$1,000
$2,000
$3,000
$4,000
$5,000
$6,000
$7,000
$8,000
HARLEM UWS UES MIDTOWN WEST BILLIONAIRE'S ROW*
MIDTOWN EAST DOWNTOWN BROOKLYN**
$1,
118
$2,0
90
$1,
729
$6
,18
8
$2,1
97
$2,5
89
$1,
322
$1,
09
9
$1,
96
4
$1,
970
$5
,25
9
$2,0
98
$2,4
29
$1,
20
7
$1,
922
$1,
85
0
$7,2
68
$2,2
52
$2,3
35
$1,
311
$1,
526
$1,
84
2
$1,
74
5
$4
,95
5
$2,2
16
$2,3
44
$1,
38
6
$1,
36
2
$2,2
51
$2,3
03
$2,0
79
$2,0
15
Market Overview by Quarter
CONTRACT SIGNED, CLOSED — AVG. PRICE PER SQ. FT.
*Billionaire's Row comprised of: 432 Park Ave, 53 W 53rd, 520 Park Avenue** Brooklyn neighborhoods tracked: Bedford Stuyvesant, Boerum Hill, Brooklyn Heights, Bushwick, Carroll Gardens, Clinton Hill, Crown Heights, Downtown Brooklyn, DUMBO, Greenpoint,
Park Slope, Prospect Heights, Redhook, Williamsburg.
The graph below depicts pricing for Contract Signed and Closed units by quarter.
Outside of Billionaire’s Row, Harlem experienced the largest quarter-over-quarter
increase in Average PPSF at 26.4%, rising to $1,526, due primarily to closings at
285 West 110th Street. Downtown remained essentially flat quarter-over-quarter
while other major Manhattan neighborhoods were down between 1.6% (Midtown
East) and 5.7% (Midtown West). Meanwhile, Avg. PPSF in Brooklyn rose 1.8%
quarter-over-quarter.
HPDM | HPDMNY.COM | 2017 Third Quarter Report | 7
Outside of Billionaire’s Row, the highest average Contract Signed pricing in Manhattan
for Q3 2017 was $3,607 PSF, achieved in the West Village with sales at 160 Leroy Street,
followed closely by West Chelsea at $3,561. The highest average Closed pricing outside of
Billionaire’s Row occurred in the West Village at $3,234 PSF due to sales at The Greenwich
Lane and 275 West 10th Street, followed by West Chelsea at $3,071 PSF.
*Billionaire's Row comprised of: 432 Park Ave, 53 W 53rd, 520 Park Avenue
Manhattan Neighborhood Insight
UPTOWN AND MIDTOWN
MANHATTAN — ACTIVE, CONTRACT SIGNED, CLOSED — AVG. PRICE PER SQ. FT.
DOWNTOWN
MANHATTAN — ACTIVE, CONTRACT SIGNED, CLOSED — AVG. PRICE PER SQ. FT.
$2,0
66
$2,3
20
$2,1
04
$1,
98
8
$1,
49
7
$1,
529
$2,1
26
$1,
90
0
$1,
819
Harlem UWS UES MidtownWest
MidtownEast
Chelsea WestChelsea
Hell’sKitchen
GramercyPark
Billionaire’sRow*
ACTIVE CONTRACT SIGNED CLOSED
$2,000
$1,000
$3,000
$4,000
$7,000
$6,000
$8,000
$9,000
$5,000
$2,9
16
$2,4
81
$5
,89
8
$8
,16
3
$4
,314
$2,3
40
$2,1
60
$2,2
89
$2,6
14
$2,0
36
$2,1
02
$3
,276
$3
,56
1
$3
,071
$1,
66
9
$1,
859
$1,6
52
$2,0
62
$1,
59
9
$2,0
58
Flatiron GreenwichVillage
SoHo NoHo LES FinancialDistrict
TriBeCa WestVillage
EastVillage
ACTIVE CONTRACT SIGNED CLOSED
$2,9
49
$2,7
38
$2,9
00
$2,8
95
$2,3
85
$3
,06
9
$2,6
70
$2,3
54
$2,3
00 $3
,513
$3
,60
7
$3
,234
$1,
68
1
$2,6
44
$2,2
68
$2,1
36
$2,1
85
$2,16
6
$2,1
96
$2,0
39
$1,8
45
$2,8
98
$2,7
39
$1,8
46
$2,2
89$2,000
$1,000
$3,000
$4,000
$7,000
$6,000
$8,000
$9,000
$5,000
HPDM | HPDMNY.COM | 2017 Third Quarter Report | 8
Analysis by Unit TypeMANHATTAN AND BROOKLYN
MANHATTAN — MEDIAN PRICE PER UNIT TYPE
BROOKLYN — MEDIAN PRICE PER UNIT TYPE
MANHATTAN — TOTAL UNITS BY BEDROOM
BROOKLYN — TOTAL UNITS BY BEDROOM
$4M
$2M
$6M
$8M
$10M
$12M
$16M
$14M
67
406
562
418
55
5 BED4 BED3 BED2 BED1 BEDSTUDIO
500
400
300
200
100
600
700
NUMBER OF UNITS
ACTIVE CONTRACT SIGNED CLOSED TOTAL NUMBER OF UNITS
$1.
18M
$1.
05
M
$6
35
K
$1.
26
M
$1.
62M
$1.
6M
$2.4
8M
$2.8
M
$2.9
2M
$5
.0M
$4
.47M
$5
.75
M
$8
.98
M
$8
.12M$
11.8
8M
$13
.7M
$14
.73
M
$10
.46
M
183
4 BED3 BED2 BED1 BEDSTUDIO
NUMBER OF UNITS
ACTIVE CONTRACT SIGNED CLOSED TOTAL NUMBER OF UNITS
$6
50
K
$1.
06
M
$1.
66
M
$2.7
2M
$3
.8M
$5
90
K
$8
63
K
$1.
5M
$2.2
5M
$3
.4M
$8
82K
$6
00
K
$1.
57M
$2.0
5M
50
100
150
200
250
300
$1M
$2M
$3M
$4M
$5M
$6M
34
129
10480
31
$3
.85
M
5 BED4 BED3 BED2 BED1 BEDSTUDIO
25
14
ACTIVE CONTRACT SIGNED CLOSED
182
317
273
133
102
85
34
12 4
122
160
111
38
50
100
150
200
250
300
350
400
9
33 37
4 BED3 BED2 BED1 BEDSTUDIO
66
ACTIVE CONTRACT SIGNED CLOSED
29
45
46
21
1 13 15 5 3
87
44
29
26
7
120
100
80
60
40
20
7
In Q3 2017 two-bedroom units continued to experience the most deal volume by unit type in Manhattan, with over 240
two-bedroom units entering into contract or closing. In Brooklyn, one-bedroom units saw the most deal volume with more
than 100 units entering into contract or closing. Median Contract Signed pricing for two-bedrooms in Manhattan rose 7.2%
quarter-over-quarter to $2.8M, and 4.9% year-over-year from $2.67M in Q3 2016. In Brooklyn, median Contract Signed
pricing for one-bedrooms fell 4.2% year-over-year to $863,000, down from $901,000 in Q3 2016.
HPDM | HPDMNY.COM | 2017 Third Quarter Report | 9
Price Point Analysis MANHATTAN AND BROOKLYN
$0-1M$1M-2M$2M-3M$3M-4M$4M-5M$5M+
38
.2%
11.4
%
9.8
% 6.3
%17.4
%
16.9
%
$0-1M$1M-2M$2M-3M$3M-4M$4M-5M$5M+
15.2
%
34
.4%
15.5
%
11.3
%
4.0
%
9.9
%
$0-1M$1M-2M$2M-3M$3M-4M$4M-5M$5M+
41.
3%
20
.6%
7.7
%
12.6
%
13.8
%
4.0
%
$0-1M$1M-2M$2M-3M$3M-4M$4M-5M$5M+
27.0
%
48
.6%
13.5
%8.1
%
2.7
%
0%
$0-1M$1M-2M$2M-3M$3M-4M$4M-5M$5M+
10.7
%15.7
%
7.1
%
7.1
%
32.2
%
27.2
%
2.6
%
1.0
% 4.7
%
10.4
%
$0-1M$1M-2M$2M-3M$3M-4M$4M-5M$5M+
53
.4%
28
.0%
38% of all Active new development listings in Manhattan remain priced above $5M,
but well below a high of 52% in Q1 2015. Meanwhile, 14.4% of Active listings remain
priced above $10M, down from 16.2% in Q3 2016.
Q3 2017 PRICE POINT MANHATTAN — ACTIVE
Q3 2017 PRICE POINT BROOKLYN — ACTIVE
MANHATTAN — CONTRACT SIGNED
BROOKLYN — CONTRACT SIGNED BROOKLYN — CLOSED
MANHATTAN — CLOSED
In Manhattan, the total percentage of new development deals entering contract
under $5M rose to 86.2% from 77% in Q2 2017. Conversely, the percentage of deals
over $5M fell to 13.8% from 23% quarter-over-quarter.
HPDM | HPDMNY.COM | 2017 Third Quarter Report | 10
SIX CORTLANDT ALLEY TRIBECASixCortlandtAlley.com
HPDM | HPDMNY.COM | 2017 Third Quarter Report | 11
Total Inventory MANHATTAN AND BROOKLYN
The largest amount of available inventory in Manhattan is concentrated in the Lower
East Side with over 900 units, due to One Manhattan Square. Midtown West is next
with over 600 units of available inventory. Neighborhoods with low available inventory
(under 50 units) include Chelsea, Flatiron, and Greenwich Village. In Brooklyn, the
highest available inventory is found in Williamsburg and Prospect Heights due to the
Austin Nichols House and 550 Vanderbilt. Areas of low available inventory (under 20
units) include Downtown Brooklyn and Carroll Gardens. The graphs below present total
inventory by neighborhood along with the corresponding percentage of units sold.
MANHATTAN TOTAL INVENTORY
BROOKLYN TOTAL INVENTORY
10%
20%
30%
40%
50%
60%
70%
80%
90%
100%
FINANCIALDISTRICT
LESWEST EASTVILLAGE VILLAGE
TRIBECANOHOSOHOGREEN.VILLAGE
FLATIRONGRAM.PARK
HELL'SKITCHEN
WESTCHELSEA
CHELSEAMIDTOWNEAST
BN.ROW*
MIDTOWNWEST
UESUWSHARLEM
71%
36%
76% 67%
76%
62%
21%
56%
88%
40%
718
34
44
5
1,0
95
195
1,18
9
114
28
2
50
0
24
8 38
3
83
0
PERCENTAGE SOLD
85%
68%62%60%
25%
62%
49%62%
23%
TOTAL UNITS PERCENT SOLD
1,24
6 1,3
98
625
105
610
412
69
6
200
400
600
800
1000
1200
1400
1600
10%
20%
30%
40%
50%
60%
70%
80%
90%
100%
PROSPECTHEIGHTS
GREENPOINTDUMBOBOERUM HILLCROWN HEIGHTS
CLINTON HILLCARROLL GARDENS
BROOKLYNHEIGHTS
89%
66%61%
PERCENTAGE SOLD
251
188
33
4
PARK SLOPE
51%
115
WILLIAMSBURG
60%
55
1
98
171
125 36
73
71% 59%
100%
84% 81%
TOTAL UNITS PERCENT SOLD
100
200
300
500
400
600
49
61%
Total Inventory is defined as all new development units, both currently listed as
either Active, Contract Signed, or Closed, as well as those units not yet released
to the market. Available Units is defined as new development units that are
either currently listed as Active or those not yet released to the market. These
numbers include units released prior to 2017, provided they are in a project that
has not sold out all sponsor units. This data provides a comprehensive look at new
development inventory by including unreleased units.
*Billionaire's Row comprised of: 432 Park Ave, 53 W 53rd, 520 Park Avenue
HPDM | HPDMNY.COM | 2017 Third Quarter Report | 12
Further Insight
Downtown Manhattan continued to experience the most new development
activity by volume in Q3 2017, followed closely by Brooklyn. In Manhattan, just
over 310 units entered into contract in Q3 2017, a decrease of 10.2% quarter-over-
quarter and 11.7% year-over-year. In Brooklyn, nearly 60 units entered into contract
in Q3 2017, a 54.2% decrease quarter-over-quarter and a 38.7% decrease year-
over-year from over 90 units in Q3 2016. This decrease reflects a lack of large
projects launching in key neighborhoods, inhibiting supply in key price points
below $2M. These numbers include units that entered into contract and closed
within the same quarter.
Two-bedroom units in Brooklyn remain more efficiently sized than two-bedrooms in
Manhattan, while one-bedrooms are becoming more similarly sized in each borough.
Median size for two-bedroom units in Brooklyn is 1101 sq.ft, while the median for two-
bedroom units in Manhattan is 1402 sq. ft. Median size for one-bedroom units in Brooklyn
is 685 sq.ft, while the median for one-bedroom units in Manhattan is 788 sq. ft.
NEW DEVELOPMENT LISTINGS BY NEIGHBORHOOD MEDIAN SIZE (SQ. FT.) BY UNIT TYPE
BKLYN**UPPERMANHATTAN
DOWNTOWNBNROW*
MIDTOWNWEST
MIDTOWNEAST
UWSUES
ACTIVE CONTRACT SIGNED CLOSED
96 6
7
88 5
5
36
572
62
151
28
11 25
19 5 86
1
162
15 377
3
35
5
220
40 19
3 100
200
300
400
500
600
700
500
1,000
1,500
2,000
2,500
3,000
3,500
4,000
4,500
5 BR4 BR3 BR2 BR1 BRSTUDIO
MANHATTAN BROOKLYN
60
1
78
8 2,2
71
45
2
68
5
1,6
58
1,4
02
1,10
1
3,2
20
4,2
23
2,6
63 3
,58
2
*Billionaire's Row comprised of: 432 Park Ave, 53 W 53rd, 520 Park Avenue** Brooklyn neighborhoods tracked: Bedford Stuyvesant, Boerum Hill, Brooklyn Heights, Bushwick, Carroll Gardens, Clinton Hill, Crown Heights, Downtown Brooklyn, DUMBO, Greenpoint,
Park Slope, Prospect Heights, Redhook, Williamsburg.
MANHATTAN AND BROOKLYN
Contact
445 Park Avenue, 10th Floor | New York, NY 10022
HPDMNY.com
212 521 5757
One ParkCliffside Park, NJOneParkCondosNJ.com
318 West 47Hell's Kitchen318w47.com
Prepared by Matthew Petrallia, Vice President of Research and AnalyticsThe information presented here has been gathered from resources deemed reliable and refined by HPDM internal research, though it may be subject to errors, omissions, changes or withdrawal without notice. This information may not be copied, commercially used or distributed without HPDM’s prior consent.
For questions or comments regarding this report please contact [email protected]