handout from sb 21 debate with dr. steve haycox (3.28.2014)
DESCRIPTION
Notes used during March 28, 2014 debate on the repeal of SB 21 with Dr. Steve Haycox, before Prof. Willie Hensley's graduate level class on Alaska Policy Frontiers.TRANSCRIPT
“Right now, the state is on a path it can’t sustain. … Reasonable assumptions … suggest we do not have enough cash in reserves to avoid a severe fiscal crunch soon after 2023, and with that fiscal crisis will come an economic crash.” (Analysis based on revenue projections under ACES)
“What can the state do to avoid a major fiscal and economic crisis? The answer is to save more and restrict the rate of spending growth. All revenues above the sustainable spending level of $5.5 … would be channeled into savings.”
The problem But a large part of the problem is spending
“… institution of a broad based tax, and use of a portion of the earnings of the Permanent Fund”
Source: University of Alaska‐Anchorage, Institute of Social and Economic ResearchMaximum Sustainable Yield: FY 2014 Update Web Note No. 14 • January 2013
Alaska’s Current Fiscal Situation
Alternative revenue futuresOil Decline Curves Net Present Value
Source: Testimony of Barry Pulliam, Econ One, before House Finance Committee, April 9‐10, 2013.