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Prof. Branislav Glavatović, PhD in Geophysics, PPD Manager of the Montenegro Seismological Observatory, Podgorica HARMONIZATION OF SEISMIC HAZARD MAPS FOR THE WESTERN BALKAN COUNTRIES NATO Science for Peace and Security Programme Public Diplomacy Division PROJECT LAUNCH Podgorica, October 2, 2007

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Page 1: HARMONIZATION OF SEISMIC HAZARD MAPS FOR THE …wbalkanseismicmaps.org/downloads/meetings/Glavatovic-Podgorica… · HARMONIZATION OF SEISMIC HAZARD MAPS FOR THE WESTERN BALKAN COUNTRIES

Prof. Branislav Glavatović, PhD in Geophysics, PPDManager of the Montenegro Seismological Observatory, Podgorica

HARMONIZATION OF SEISMIC HAZARD MAPS FOR THE WESTERN BALKAN COUNTRIES

NATO Science for Peace and Security ProgrammePublic Diplomacy Division

PROJECT LAUNCHPodgorica, October 2, 2007

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HARMONIZATION OF SEISMIC HAZARD MAPS FOR THE WESTERN BALKAN HARMONIZATION OF SEISMIC HAZARD MAPS FOR THE WESTERN BALKAN COUNTRIESCOUNTRIES

Project will be carried out by:1212 institutions from 66 countries,7 7 Co-Directors and 4848 key members and by other institutional staff

Sinan Akkar, Ankara, Turkey, NPDBranislav Glavatovic, Podgorica, Montenegro, PPD

PROJECT CO-DIRECTORS::Shyqyri Aliaj, Tirana, Albania, Vlado Kuk, Zagreb, Croatia,Amer Zoranic, Sarajevo, Bosnia and Herzegovina,Mihail Garevski, Skopje, FYR Macedonia,Svetlana Kovacevic, Belgrade, Serbia.

Project will be coordinated by:

ACCORDING TO THE PROJECT PLAN

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12 CONTRIBUTING INSTITUTIONS:Montenegro:

Montenegro Seismological Observatory

Geological Institute of Montenegro

Albania:

Seismological Institute, Academy of Sciences of Albania

Geographic Studies Center, Academy of Sciences of Albania

Bosnia and Herzegovina:

Center for Seismology, Sarajevo

Hydrometeorological Institute of Republic of Srpska / Sector for Seismology

Croatia:

Faculty of Science, Geophysical Department

Macedonia:

Institute of Earthquake Engineering and Engineering Seismology (IZIIS), University "Ss. Cyril and Methodius" Skopje

Seismological Observatory, Faculty of Natural Sciences, University "Ss. Cyril and Methodius" Skopje

Serbia:

Seismological Survey of Serbia

Faculty of Mining and Geology, Department for Geology, University of Belgrade

Faculty for Civil Engineering, University of Belgrade

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It is well known that the seismic hazard in the Region is high:Every 10-15 years on an average basis occurs a destructive earthquake, while every 60-70 years a catastrophic one strikes the region. Still fresh memories on earthquake destructions in the Region:

Skopje, Macedonia 1963 with 1.070 victims

Montenegro, 1979: 136 victims in Montenegroand Albania

$4 Bil. loss in Montenegro (4 x GDP at the time)

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Seismic hazard assesment is an important step towards preparedness and prevention activities in disaster management

The essential motive to accomplish this Project is reliable seismic hazard evaluation, as a necessary base towards seismic safety improvement and seismic risk management .This accomplishment is in reference to DPPI goals and is compatible with the security mission of the NATO Science for Peace and Security Programme.

Significant earthquakes in the region

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Crucial Reasons / Objectives for the Project Elaboration:

1. Security of human lives, social and economical values as well as historical heritage exposed to significant seismic hazard in this region should be increased,

2. Existing seismic hazard maps are out of date and should be updated and improved,

3. Recently acquired seismic, seismotectonical, geophysical and other data should be integrated and implemented in hazard assesment,

4. New methodological approach and new empirical ground-shaking models for hazard assesment should be implemented.

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44 Objectives More:Objectives More:

1. Seismic hazard maps should be harmonized with EU standards (EUROCODE 8),

2. Local seismic code regulations, seismic risk estimation and risk managementshould be based on reliable hazard maps,

3. Scientific collaboration in seismic hazard analysis and seismic data exchange in the region should be improved and

4. Young scientists in the region should be trained in seismic hazard assesment.

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7 7 End Products:End Products:

1. Integrated database organized in a GIS application for the whole region: regional earthquake catalogue, seismotectonical data, focal mechanism data, morphological and geological data, etc.

2. Seismogenic model of the whole region,

3. Seismic hazard maps, harmonized with the EU standards - as a base for seismic safety improvement, seismic risk management, and seismic design codes,

4. Improved seismic monitoring networks through the deployment of new instrumentation,

5. Improved scientific collaboration between the participating countries and institutions,

6. Trained young scientists in earthquake-hazard related topics,

7. Published and disseminated the major Project results.

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77 End Users:End Users:

1. Civil protection agencies,

2. Agencies for physical and urban planning,

3. Ministries responsible for seismic safety improvement and seismic risk management,

4. Authorities for seismic design code legislation,

5. National seismic networks,

6. Seismological, geological and geophysical institutions in the Region,

7. Insurance companies.

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Flow chart of Project activities

Project will be realized through 9 working packages during 3 years

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1) Workshop – Slovenia (ARSO) 7-9 November 2007, Ig, Ljubljana, covering: Hazard software analysis (OHAZ); Spatial smoothing seismicity; Seismic source zones delineation and characterization and Earthquake catalogue unification.Donation by:: Administration of the Republic of Slovenia for Civil Protection and Disaster Relief and Stability Pact/DPPI

2) Zagreb, WG Meeting (3 days) at the beginning of the first year of the Project, covering discussion and decisions on:Earthquake catalogue compiling, declustering, completeness, format; Seismic source zones delineation and characterization; Strong ground motion attenuation models, Seismic hazard assessment methodology; Seismic instrumentation analysis and selection.

3) Ohrid, WG Meeting (2 days) in the middle of the second year of the Project, covering discussion and decisions on:Overview of the ongoing Project results (finalized data bases); Decision on specific elements on thematic maps; Decision on purchasing GIS software (MapInfo+VMapper) and hazard assessment software (EZ-FRISK).

4) Belgrade, Workshop and WG Meeting (3 days) at the beginning of the third year of the Project, covering:Overview of the Project ongoing results; Analysis of the data bases prepared for seismic hazard assessment and GIS implementation; Example presentation in EZ-FRISK.

5) Podgorica, Workshop on final Project results presentation (2 days) at the end of the Project:Publishing of the Project results and preparation of the final presentation; Public presentation of the results.

Coordination - through WG meetings and workshops:

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Budget Summary Table: Estimated Cost ~ 640.000 Euros

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Equipment (instruments, computers): 54.1 %Travel (meetings, workshops): 13.2 %Training and stipends: 22.1 %

~ 90 %