harvestchoice approach: grid-based ssa-wide crop modeling system
TRANSCRIPT
C R O P M O D E L I N G F R A M E W O R K
F O R S T R A T E G I C D E C I S I O N S
H a r v e s t C h o i c e A p p r o a c h : G r i d - b a s e d S S A - w i d e C r o p M o d e l i n g S y s t e m
Jawoo Koo, IFPRI
Africa RISING–CSISA Joint Monitoring and Evaluation Meeting, Addis Ababa, Ethiopia, 11-13 November 2013
1. Crop modeling approach in general
2. HarvestChoice approach
3. Limitations
Let’s talk…
MANAGEMENT
• Planting window
• Planting density
• Irrigation
• Inorganic fertilizer
• Organic manure
• Tillage
• Residue
CULTIVAR
• Phenology
• Max # of kernels
• Kernel filling rate
*DSSAT Cropping System Model Ver. 4.0.2.000 May 21, 2009; 16:32:33
*RUN 1 : RAINFED LOW NITROGEN MODEL : MZCER040 - MAIZE EXPERIMENT : UFGA8201 MZ NIT X IRR, GAINESVILLE 2N*3I TREATMENT 1 : RAINFED LOW NITROGEN CROP : MAIZE CULTIVAR : McCurdy 84aa ECOTYPE :IB0002 STARTING DATE : FEB 25 1982 PLANTING DATE : FEB 26 1982 PLANTS/m2 : 7.2 ROW SPACING : 61.cm WEATHER : UFGA 1982 SOIL : IBMZ910014 TEXTURE : - Millhopper Fine Sand SOIL INITIAL C : DEPTH:180cm EXTR. H2O:160.9mm NO3: 2.5kg/ha NH4: 12.9kg/ha WATER BALANCE : IRRIGATE ON REPORTED DATE(S) IRRIGATION : 13 mm IN 1 APPLICATIONS NITROGEN BAL. : SOIL-N & N-UPTAKE SIMULATION; NO N-FIXATION N-FERTILIZER : 116 kg/ha IN 3 APPLICATIONS RESIDUE/MANURE : INITIAL : 1000 kg/ha ; 0 kg/ha IN 0 APPLICATIONS ENVIRONM. OPT. : DAYL= 0.00 SRAD= 0.00 TMAX= 0.00 TMIN= 0.00
RAIN= 0.00 CO2 = R330.00 DEW = 0.00 WIND= 0.00 SIMULATION OPT : WATER :Y NITROGEN:Y N-FIX:N PHOSPH :N PESTS :N
PHOTO :C ET :R INFIL:S HYDROL :R SOM :G MANAGEMENT OPT : PLANTING:R IRRIG :R FERT :R RESIDUE:N HARVEST:M WTH:M *SUMMARY OF SOIL AND GENETIC INPUT PARAMETERS
SOIL LOWER UPPER SAT EXTR INIT ROOT BULK pH NO3 NH4 ORG DEPTH LIMIT LIMIT SW SW SW DIST DENS C cm cm3/cm3 cm3/cm3 cm3/cm3 g/cm3 ugN/g ugN/g %
-------------------------------------------------------------------------------0- 5 0.026 0.096 0.230 0.070 0.086 1.00 1.30 7.00 0.10 0.50 2.00 5- 15 0.025 0.086 0.230 0.061 0.086 1.00 1.30 7.00 0.10 0.50 1.00 15- 30 0.025 0.086 0.230 0.061 0.086 0.70 1.40 7.00 0.10 0.50 1.00 30- 45 0.025 0.086 0.230 0.061 0.086 0.30 1.40 7.00 0.10 0.50 0.50 45- 60 0.025 0.086 0.230 0.061 0.086 0.30 1.40 7.00 0.10 0.50 0.50 60- 90 0.028 0.090 0.230 0.062 0.076 0.05 1.45 7.00 0.10 0.60 0.10 90-120 0.028 0.090 0.230 0.062 0.076 0.03 1.45 7.00 0.10 0.50 0.10 120-150 0.029 0.130 0.230 0.101 0.130 0.00 1.45 7.00 0.10 0.50 0.04 150-180 0.070 0.258 0.360 0.188 0.258 0.00 1.20 7.00 0.10 0.50 0.24
TOT-180 6.2 22.2 45.3 16.1 21.4 <--cm - kg/ha--> 2.5 12.9 87080 SOIL ALBEDO : 0.18 EVAPORATION LIMIT : 2.00 MIN. FACTOR : 1.00 RUNOFF CURVE # :60.00 DRAINAGE RATE : 0.65 FERT. FACTOR : 0.80
MAIZE CULTIVAR :IB0035-McCurdy 84aa ECOTYPE :IB0002 P1 : 265.00 P2 : 0.3000 P5 : 920.00 G2 : 990.00 G3 : 8.500 PHINT : 39.000
*SIMULATED CROP AND SOIL STATUS AT MAIN DEVELOPMENT STAGES
RUN NO. 1 RAINFED LOW NITROGEN
CROP GROWTH BIOMASS CROP N STRESS DATE AGE STAGE kg/ha LAI kg/ha % H2O N
------ --- ---------- ----- ----- --- --- ---- ----25 FEB 0 Start Sim 0 0.00 0 0.0 0.00 0.0026 FEB 0 Sowing 0 0.00 0 0.0 0.00 0.0027 FEB 1 Germinate 0 0.00 0 0.0 0.00 0.009 MAR 11 Emergence 29 0.00 1 4.4 0.00 0.0027 MAR 29 End Juveni 251 0.43 4 1.6 0.00 0.091 APR 34 Floral Ini 304 0.44 4 1.5 0.00 0.50
*DSSAT Cropping System Model Ver. 4.0.2.000 May 21, 2009; 16:32:33
*RUN 1 : RAINFED LOW NITROGEN MODEL : MZCER040 - MAIZE EXPERIMENT : UFGA8201 MZ NIT X IRR, GAINESVILLE 2N*3I TREATMENT 1 : RAINFED LOW NITROGEN CROP : MAIZE CULTIVAR : McCurdy 84aa ECOTYPE :IB0002 STARTING DATE : FEB 25 1982 PLANTING DATE : FEB 26 1982 PLANTS/m2 : 7.2 ROW SPACING : 61.cm WEATHER : UFGA 1982 SOIL : IBMZ910014 TEXTURE : - Millhopper Fine Sand SOIL INITIAL C : DEPTH:180cm EXTR. H2O:160.9mm NO3: 2.5kg/ha NH4: 12.9kg/ha WATER BALANCE : IRRIGATE ON REPORTED DATE(S) IRRIGATION : 13 mm IN 1 APPLICATIONS NITROGEN BAL. : SOIL-N & N-UPTAKE SIMULATION; NO N-FIXATION N-FERTILIZER : 116 kg/ha IN 3 APPLICATIONS RESIDUE/MANURE : INITIAL : 1000 kg/ha ; 0 kg/ha IN 0 APPLICATIONS ENVIRONM. OPT. : DAYL= 0.00 SRAD= 0.00 TMAX= 0.00 TMIN= 0.00
RAIN= 0.00 CO2 = R330.00 DEW = 0.00 WIND= 0.00 SIMULATION OPT : WATER :Y NITROGEN:Y N-FIX:N PHOSPH :N PESTS :N
PHOTO :C ET :R INFIL:S HYDROL :R SOM :G MANAGEMENT OPT : PLANTING:R IRRIG :R FERT :R RESIDUE:N HARVEST:M WTH:M *SUMMARY OF SOIL AND GENETIC INPUT PARAMETERS
SOIL LOWER UPPER SAT EXTR INIT ROOT BULK pH NO3 NH4 ORG DEPTH LIMIT LIMIT SW SW SW DIST DENS C cm cm3/cm3 cm3/cm3 cm3/cm3 g/cm3 ugN/g ugN/g %
-------------------------------------------------------------------------------0- 5 0.026 0.096 0.230 0.070 0.086 1.00 1.30 7.00 0.10 0.50 2.00 5- 15 0.025 0.086 0.230 0.061 0.086 1.00 1.30 7.00 0.10 0.50 1.00 15- 30 0.025 0.086 0.230 0.061 0.086 0.70 1.40 7.00 0.10 0.50 1.00 30- 45 0.025 0.086 0.230 0.061 0.086 0.30 1.40 7.00 0.10 0.50 0.50 45- 60 0.025 0.086 0.230 0.061 0.086 0.30 1.40 7.00 0.10 0.50 0.50 60- 90 0.028 0.090 0.230 0.062 0.076 0.05 1.45 7.00 0.10 0.60 0.10 90-120 0.028 0.090 0.230 0.062 0.076 0.03 1.45 7.00 0.10 0.50 0.10 120-150 0.029 0.130 0.230 0.101 0.130 0.00 1.45 7.00 0.10 0.50 0.04 150-180 0.070 0.258 0.360 0.188 0.258 0.00 1.20 7.00 0.10 0.50 0.24
TOT-180 6.2 22.2 45.3 16.1 21.4 <--cm - kg/ha--> 2.5 12.9 87080 SOIL ALBEDO : 0.18 EVAPORATION LIMIT : 2.00 MIN. FACTOR : 1.00 RUNOFF CURVE # :60.00 DRAINAGE RATE : 0.65 FERT. FACTOR : 0.80
MAIZE CULTIVAR :IB0035-McCurdy 84aa ECOTYPE :IB0002 P1 : 265.00 P2 : 0.3000 P5 : 920.00 G2 : 990.00 G3 : 8.500 PHINT : 39.000
*SIMULATED CROP AND SOIL STATUS AT MAIN DEVELOPMENT STAGES
RUN NO. 1 RAINFED LOW NITROGEN
CROP GROWTH BIOMASS CROP N STRESS DATE AGE STAGE kg/ha LAI kg/ha % H2O N
------ --- ---------- ----- ----- --- --- ---- ----25 FEB 0 Start Sim 0 0.00 0 0.0 0.00 0.0026 FEB 0 Sowing 0 0.00 0 0.0 0.00 0.0027 FEB 1 Germinate 0 0.00 0 0.0 0.00 0.009 MAR 11 Emergence 29 0.00 1 4.4 0.00 0.0027 MAR 29 End Juveni 251 0.43 4 1.6 0.00 0.091 APR 34 Floral Ini 304 0.44 4 1.5 0.00 0.50
*DSSAT Cropping System Model Ver. 4.0.2.000 May 21, 2009; 16:32:33
*RUN 1 : RAINFED LOW NITROGEN MODEL : MZCER040 - MAIZE EXPERIMENT : UFGA8201 MZ NIT X IRR, GAINESVILLE 2N*3I TREATMENT 1 : RAINFED LOW NITROGEN CROP : MAIZE CULTIVAR : McCurdy 84aa ECOTYPE :IB0002 STARTING DATE : FEB 25 1982 PLANTING DATE : FEB 26 1982 PLANTS/m2 : 7.2 ROW SPACING : 61.cm WEATHER : UFGA 1982 SOIL : IBMZ910014 TEXTURE : - Millhopper Fine Sand SOIL INITIAL C : DEPTH:180cm EXTR. H2O:160.9mm NO3: 2.5kg/ha NH4: 12.9kg/ha WATER BALANCE : IRRIGATE ON REPORTED DATE(S) IRRIGATION : 13 mm IN 1 APPLICATIONS NITROGEN BAL. : SOIL-N & N-UPTAKE SIMULATION; NO N-FIXATION N-FERTILIZER : 116 kg/ha IN 3 APPLICATIONS RESIDUE/MANURE : INITIAL : 1000 kg/ha ; 0 kg/ha IN 0 APPLICATIONS ENVIRONM. OPT. : DAYL= 0.00 SRAD= 0.00 TMAX= 0.00 TMIN= 0.00
RAIN= 0.00 CO2 = R330.00 DEW = 0.00 WIND= 0.00 SIMULATION OPT : WATER :Y NITROGEN:Y N-FIX:N PHOSPH :N PESTS :N
PHOTO :C ET :R INFIL:S HYDROL :R SOM :G MANAGEMENT OPT : PLANTING:R IRRIG :R FERT :R RESIDUE:N HARVEST:M WTH:M *SUMMARY OF SOIL AND GENETIC INPUT PARAMETERS
SOIL LOWER UPPER SAT EXTR INIT ROOT BULK pH NO3 NH4 ORG DEPTH LIMIT LIMIT SW SW SW DIST DENS C cm cm3/cm3 cm3/cm3 cm3/cm3 g/cm3 ugN/g ugN/g %
-------------------------------------------------------------------------------0- 5 0.026 0.096 0.230 0.070 0.086 1.00 1.30 7.00 0.10 0.50 2.00 5- 15 0.025 0.086 0.230 0.061 0.086 1.00 1.30 7.00 0.10 0.50 1.00 15- 30 0.025 0.086 0.230 0.061 0.086 0.70 1.40 7.00 0.10 0.50 1.00 30- 45 0.025 0.086 0.230 0.061 0.086 0.30 1.40 7.00 0.10 0.50 0.50 45- 60 0.025 0.086 0.230 0.061 0.086 0.30 1.40 7.00 0.10 0.50 0.50 60- 90 0.028 0.090 0.230 0.062 0.076 0.05 1.45 7.00 0.10 0.60 0.10 90-120 0.028 0.090 0.230 0.062 0.076 0.03 1.45 7.00 0.10 0.50 0.10 120-150 0.029 0.130 0.230 0.101 0.130 0.00 1.45 7.00 0.10 0.50 0.04 150-180 0.070 0.258 0.360 0.188 0.258 0.00 1.20 7.00 0.10 0.50 0.24
TOT-180 6.2 22.2 45.3 16.1 21.4 <--cm - kg/ha--> 2.5 12.9 87080 SOIL ALBEDO : 0.18 EVAPORATION LIMIT : 2.00 MIN. FACTOR : 1.00 RUNOFF CURVE # :60.00 DRAINAGE RATE : 0.65 FERT. FACTOR : 0.80
MAIZE CULTIVAR :IB0035-McCurdy 84aa ECOTYPE :IB0002 P1 : 265.00 P2 : 0.3000 P5 : 920.00 G2 : 990.00 G3 : 8.500 PHINT : 39.000
*SIMULATED CROP AND SOIL STATUS AT MAIN DEVELOPMENT STAGES
RUN NO. 1 RAINFED LOW NITROGEN
CROP GROWTH BIOMASS CROP N STRESS DATE AGE STAGE kg/ha LAI kg/ha % H2O N
------ --- ---------- ----- ----- --- --- ---- ----25 FEB 0 Start Sim 0 0.00 0 0.0 0.00 0.0026 FEB 0 Sowing 0 0.00 0 0.0 0.00 0.0027 FEB 1 Germinate 0 0.00 0 0.0 0.00 0.009 MAR 11 Emergence 29 0.00 1 4.4 0.00 0.0027 MAR 29 End Juveni 251 0.43 4 1.6 0.00 0.091 APR 34 Floral Ini 304 0.44 4 1.5 0.00 0.50
OUTPUT
Phenologyflowering, grain/seed/tuber,
maturity
Yield componentgrain/seed/tuber, biomass, LAI
Growthgrain/seed/tuber, biomass, LAI
Soilnitrogen balance, water balance,
carbon balance
0
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
0 50 100 150 200
Yield(t/ha)
Fertilizer (kg[N]/ha)
DSSATDecision Support System for AgrotechnologyTransfer
Process-based mathematicalagronomy model
(Matured) Research tool forcrop production analyses
Incorporates Crop-Soil-Weather-Management models
Utilities to help users integrate data with models Data: Weather, Soil, Experiments
Analysis: Evaluation, Risk/Uncertainty, Economics
Support: Graphics, Weather Generator, Parameter Estimator
CENTURY module simulates dynamics of soil organic matter and residue managements
INPUTS/OUTPUTS
INPUT
Site informationcoordinates, elevation, drainage
Daily weathersolar radiation, temperature, rainfall
Soilclassification, water release curve, bulk density,
organic carbon, root growth factor, drainage
Initial conditionsprevious crop, soil water and nitrogen content
Managementcultivar, planting, water and nutrient
management, residue application, tillage, harvest, pest/disease damage
OUTPUT
Phenologyflowering, grain/seed/tuber, maturity
Yield componentgrain/seed/tuber, biomass, LAI
Growthgrain/seed/tuber, biomass, LAI
Soilnitrogen balance (e.g., leaching)
water balance (e.g., runoff)carbon balance (e.g., emission)
phosphorus balance
SAYS GROUPS OF
ECONOMISTS
We want yield responses for all commodities to all
potential technologies *everywhere*
RESEARCH OBJECTIVE
Model changes in outputsas a consequence of changes in inputs
2040
6080
100
0
2
4
6
8
10
N/A0
2040
Yield(t/ha)
IrrigationThreshold (%)
Improved variety
N Fertilizer Application(kg[N]/ha)
Planting in November
BASELINE characterization, current & potential productivity, infrastructure, markets, profitability
CHANGESseeds, fertilizer use, soil water management, conservative agriculture, transport networks and costs, on-farm/post-harvest technologies, climate
ECONOMICEVALUTIONstakeholder-led evaluation scenarios, market-scale analysis of changes & interventions (e.g. technologies, practices, policies), winners and losers
INVESTMENT& POLICY FORMULATION/DECISIONS
INGREDIENTSPSYCH Production systems characterization
SPAM Spatial Production Allocation
CLIMEX Pest & Disease Modeling
TOUCAN Crop Systems Simulation on Grids
SMAAT Spatial Market Access/Price Tool
DREAM Market Scale Impact Evaluation
SChEFSpatial Characterization and
Evaluation Framework
POINT VS. GRID*
Crop models are point-based applications, using point-based input data
Models can be run on grids, using grid-based input data
CROP MODELINGin global and regional-scale studies on grids
Linux Cluster
FERTILIZER PROFITABILITY: WHEAT in ETHIOPIA Rainfed mean yield simulated for 100-year period
Recommended rate of fertilizer (100kg of DAP + 50kg of urea)
Spatial price modeling of input (fertilizer) and output (wheat)
EX-ANTE TECHNOLOGY IMPACT ASSESSMENT Rainfed maize and wheat production in Ethiopia
Climate change scenarios: 2010-2050
Hypothetical full adoption of technology
RAINFALL/YIELD VARIABILITY: MAIZE in ETHIOPIA Low-input versus high-input systems, simulated at 0.5-degree resolutions
Historical gridded weather data: 1980-2010
Data!
Scale
– Point-based biophysical model, extrapolated to the gridded space
Complexity
– No pest/disease/weed models
– No micronutrients
LIMITATIONS
Anchoring point
Data!
Scale
– Extrapolating over space
– Counterfactuals
Complexity
– Capturing the interactive impacts (difficult to assess causality otherwise)
OPPORTUNITIESOUTPUT
Phenologyflowering, grain/seed/tuber, maturity
Yield componentgrain/seed/tuber, biomass, LAI
Growthgrain/seed/tuber, biomass, LAI
Soilnitrogen balance (e.g., leaching)
water balance (e.g., runoff)carbon balance (e.g., emission)
phosphorus balance
Africa Research in Sustainable Intensification for the Next Generation
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