has the butterfly just flapped its wings

8/14/2019 Has the Butterfly Just Flapped Its Wings

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Has the butterfly just flapped its wings?

The Butterfly Effect is a scientific theory based on mathematicalmodeling and the effects of very small fractions appearing in a series,

which can later end up causing a far more drastic change in thenumber series.

Geological and Meteorological Sciences in particular studies this theorywith great regard, and now defense strategists, economists, bankersand treasury experts, stock and commodity brokers are all beginning tounderstand the beauty of this theory. The theory suggests that it isvery much possible that"A Storm which may end up crashing into the beaches ofCaracas might have been started with the wind whichoriginated off the flapping of wings of a butterfly in South

China!!"

This article is an attempt to understand what does the Butterfly Effectmanifests in terms of recent global events and how it can potentiallychange various situations around us, and to best capture the benefitsfrom the possible outcomes.

It is possible very much possible that we are right on the verge of the3rd World War. The Russian Invasion of Georgia on 8th of August 2008,may not sound too big a news item to the rest of the world, but neitherdid the German invasion of Poland in 1936 nor the assassination of

Austrian Crown Prince and Princess in 1914 off the borders of BosniaHerzegovina; both these events were the triggers of the Second and

First World Wars.

Although The Russian Federationhas just announced a Halt ofMission in Georgia, however itsforces will remain in GeorgianTerritories of Abkhazia and Ossetiafor indefinite period.

So what does this means to regionand the world, and how it may endup altering the status quo of GlobalPolitics and Economy,


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Russian forces entering South Ossetia or can push us into a world warsituation? Lets consider all thescenarios.

The Troubled Ellipse

The strategic ellipse is an allusive dream, it has always been on thefulcrums of dispute and this is how its will always be. Even long beforeGas and Oil were considered of any economic importance, this is wheremost global disputes have been staged, this has been the hot spot ofthe international trade, human development, learning, evolution ofscience and cradle for art and literature. This is where the Indus ValleyCivilization thrived, followed by the Mesopotamians, Assyrians, Huns,Aryans, Egyptians,Persians, Arabs and Turks.

The geography of theregion has made itresource rich, with freshwater, rivers and lakes,green pastures, forests,farmlands, minerals andores and lately deserts ofmiddle east, the mostdocile of the areas, havestepped up to plate as Oiland Gas got discovered

and has sincetransformed the world.

The Impact on the Region

The failure of most Central Asian countries to emerge as serious geo-political players since their independence from the USSR in early1990s, despite of having adequate infrastructural and educationalresources, has led to a potentially unstable region, one which is mostly

run by either Pro USA or Pro Kremlin governments. All such rulersnaturally have loose footings in their countries and mostly rely on theirpatrons abroad.


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Poland has hastily signed the Missile Defense Shield Agreement withUS, which may turn out to be a great disaster for the Polish future. It issynonymous to the ill decision of Pakistani Government in 1950, whenit was given the chance of choosing between the US or the Sovietcamps to join.

The situation is a signal of a new era of strength to the RegionalGovernments which are backed by the Russians, while the Americanallies have much to fear

The Shanghai Cooperation Organization

The Shanghai CooperationOrganization (SCO) willemerge as a strong opponentto NATO, and the within theSCO there will be a new

struggle of memberships andpole positions.

The SCO Top Crowd
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India and Pakistan both havethe observer status with theSCO, while Pakistan isbacked by China and other

'stan' states and even aslight agreement by theRussians, the Indians are notyet welcomed, the biggestoppositions, comes fromChina, and less-surprisingly,ever since the Indo-AmericanNuclear Pact, Russia hasembarked on the Indianopposition bandwagon. Due to the growing Indo-US ties, the Russianopposition to Indian inclusion in SCO is increasing, in particular, the

Indian Airforce Forward Base in Dushanbe, Tajikistan is a major causeof concern for the Russians.

A Terrible Dead End for the Joker in the Cloak

The Afghan government has a huge delimma on its hands, clearly thecountry is facing regional isolation, having US and NATO forcesoperating deep inside the country, is a major disconcerting point forRussia, Iran, China and Pakistan.

All the Kings Men: Afghan Armyrunning for cover as Rockets struck

an official ceremony

The Made in America clown, Hamid Karzai, willfeel a lot more lonely as the emphasis of US and

NATO operatives shift to deal with the Russianthreat in Georgia and the Caspian Basin, awayfrom Afghanistan where the internal threat of Taliban is growing withthe prospects of harsh backlash of an angry Pakistan, which facedhumiliation despite of feeding and nurturing two generations of 4.0million Afghan refugees, spanned over a 30 year period.


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Afghanistan still is divided on stark ethnic lines, with the Pashtunsfirmly in control in the South and South West, the Uzbek-Tajik-Hazaraethnic groups control the North and North West. In addition to theethnic divisions there is a Shia - Sunni angle to the whole situation,Pashtuns are mainly Sunnis while the Uzbek-Tajik-Hazaras are

predominantly Shias, with centuries old feuds running between thesetwo groups, the division of Afghanistan is all but certain.

With this new Russian threat looming and the weaknesses of AmericanCentral Command now absolutely exposed in Iraq and Afghanistan, UShas to scamper all the force it can get to refocus on Central andEastern Europe. This will lead to the second isolation of Afghanistan,where Pashtun Talibans will eventually sweep into power. Out of all this,India will emerge as one of the biggest losers in the conflict as itsstrategic involvement in Afghanistan will be short lived.

The Tumbling Domino Falls on India

Pakistan fueled the insurgency in Indian Occupied Kashmir in late1980s and 1990s, by directly aiding the freedom fighters, however theweakened and humiliated ISI (Pakistani Intelligence Agency) and theincapable current government of Pakistan does not have the might toredo its Kashmir show.

Pakistan was looking for a miracle or a stupid mistake from India torock the boat, sheepishly, India provided them with the perfectopportunity. The renewed freedom struggle in Kashmir started as a

result of land allocation to the Hindu Temple by the Delhi government,the owners of the land announced a settlement scheme at theadjoining area, where thousands of Hindu families were to be housed.The Muslims found this development an attempt of reshuffling theHindu-Muslim demographics of the area and feared that this will giveultimate power to Hindu participants in the next elections. An agitationwas started, as the violence grew, the Indian government decided toroll back its decision and annulled the land allocation.

The Hindufaction of

Jammufound thisinsultingandstarted anagitationof theirown,


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which soon converted into full blown Hindu-Muslim riots. The Muslims viewed the situationsas the Indian Army using force against them,and the memories of 1990s came hurling back.Now the entire Kashmir valley is chanting with

the slogans of "AZADI" (Freedom) and "KamshirBanay Ga Pakistan" (Kashmir will becomePakistan).

Trouble in Paradise; Riots in Indian Occupied Kashmir, Again!

It is becoming imminent that USA will pull troops out of Afghanistan,and NATO will have to redirect to strengthen the defense of motherlandEurope against a resurgent Russia, Afghanistan will soon be calling fora Peace Keeping force, and the recent events, such as those after theKabul Indian Embassy bombings, show that Indian forces may very well

be deployed in Afghanistan. Initially, it may sound like a brilliant movefor Delhi, to encircle Pakistan from West and North as well as East, butthe historical eventuality for all the foreign arm bearers in Afghanistanhas never been a Bollywood happy ending.

If India do take this step, it may very well understand this fact betterthan any of the previous armed forces, so it may try to achieve all itsstrategic targets inside Pakistan as soon as possible and try to leavebefore things get too hot to handle.

If India do get on board the Kabul's sinking ship, it will qualify itself as

the defecto enemy of the over taking Afghan power, and if this turnsout to be Afghan Taliban, then God Help India! It will not take anotherbrilliantly planed Pakistani misadventure in Kashmir this time around,rather, Delhi will find itself battling against the self motivated, freeflowing Afghan fighters fully immersed in Kashmir Valley.

From a RED Nepal With Love to The"Seven Sisters"

The Tsunami ripples of Current events are notonly a threat for India on the Western Borders

but will also invoke trouble on the easternedge, where the famous badlands of SevenSister Estates of India are situated.

Assam, Nagaland, Tripura, Meghalaya, Manipur,Mizoram and Arunachal Pradesh - the mostimpoverish and under developed regions of India, the explosive lawand order and political situation of these regions made sure that they

Seven Sisters


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remained closed for tourists and foreign visitors for a long time. Otherthan the seven sisters, the problem has spread to Jharkhand, Orissa,Chattisgarh and Bengal.

The operating elements are various factions ofMaoist Rebels who are given a single name ofNaxilites Rebels, which operate freely in theseareas. These elements born out of the Sino-Soviet split in the communist ideology andafter the Sino-India war, were backed by theChinese Government and adopted the Maoistideologies.

After a decade of armed struggle, the Maoistshave recently swept into democraticallyassigned power in the neighboring Nepal andnow becoming a major element of support forthe Naxilites of India. Backed by Chinese Reds,the Nepali success story can play havoc on the Delhi nerves. Whatremains to be seen is how China and Russia will play their role in theMaoist Rebellion in India to rein in the Indian dreams of penetrating theCentral Asian politics Damn you spot! As it grows

A Greater Pakistan, Anyone?

Pakistan will not only prevail in defiance of its darkest hours, but willmost likely to emerge as the biggest indirect benefactor when the dustwill finally settle. Lets understand why.

The strategic location of Pakistan makes it the perfect negotiator onthe table. NATO and US will require the assurance of geographicalintegrity of Afghanistan from Pakistan, and the China Russian alliancewill require Pakistani assistance in seeing off the Northern Alliancegovernment in Afghanistan. Option 2 is easier, and has the most

benefits for Pakistan. With the NATO forces moving out, the resurgentAfghan Taliban will surely sweep into power by third quarter of 2009,soon after the second fighting season of next year will come to a closein the Mountains.

The question of PAKISTANI TALIBAN may arise in the minds of many areaders, who pose a huge challenge to Pakistan. The TALIBANMOVEMENT of PAKISTAN has got nothing to do with the traditionalAfghan Talibans, The Pakistan Talibans are a force which is funded


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squarely by the Indian and Afghan government to destabilize Pakistanand to act as a counter force against the Afghan Talibans, however, assoon as the Afghan government gets engaged defending Kabul fromAFGHAN TALIBAN, the threat in Pakistan will subside automatically.Another interesting age old American war tactics has been "if you cant

win the war, shift the war", thats what happened during the Vietnamwar, when the war reached to the bordering Laos and Cambodia, in anUS effort to shift the gravity center of the war, this is whats beenhappening in Pakistan, US has realized that War in Afghanistan has justgot no Economics of its own, having it as a watch tower into China andRussia, when atleast Russia does not want to hide any of its hostileintentions. So, the war has been shifted into main land Pakistan.

As situation has changed its face, the best laid plans have gone towaste and as pressure mounts on Afghanistan, this geographicalrepresentation may very well be

a reality soon, with the southernpart being annexed to Pakistanand the Northern Part mayremain to exist as a NaturalAfghanistan.

Although like most Pakistanis, Iam very skeptical about theintentions and the capability ofthe current political elite of thiscountry, however Asif Ali

Zardari's announcement ofvisiting China soon after hispresidential election and the bold statement of Chinese ForeignMinister, while standing on Indian soil, regarding China's wish to seePakistan being admitted to the Nuclear Club officially, is seen as theindicator of things to come. Grand Pakistan:Annexing the Pashtun Afghanistan

A Desperate NATO

NATO in Afghanistan is running out of time,and has resorted to desperate measures toachieve its targets in Pakistan -Afghanistan boarder areas. The Invasion ofPakistani boarder area "Angoor Adda" onthe mornings of 3rd September 08 andthen further attacks on the next twoconsecutive days, were an open sign ofthe grave desperation of the situation that

NATO is facing.


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The attempt is to achieve all strategic targets in Pakistan and thencreate enough instability to trigger a civil war situation in Pakistan,leaving the country in ruins and unable to take sides in a developing allout war which is soon going to be staged on the Central Asian slopes.

Its The OIL Stupid!

Yes it really is, The Caspian Basin has become a major source of world'sOil supply and distribution. Major Oil Rigs in Turkmenistan, Kazakhstan,Azerbaijan, Russia and even Iran are necklaced around this region. thewhole region is lined with either Oil rigs or the Oil and Gas Pipelines,mainly supplying to Central and Western Europe. To better understandthe battle for the control of Oil supply and exploration, lets take a lookat the structure of the Regional Oil producing and transporting

companies, and establish who are their controlling entities.

Russia's biggest Oil corporationssuch as Yokus and BaikalFinancial Group have beenabsorbed by the state controlledRosneft, and later the Publiclylisted Oil distribution companyGazprom, which controls themajor Siberian Oil Reservesthrough its subsidiary Gazprom

Neft (formerly; Sibneft) and thedistribution pipelines to entireEurope, accepted to sell its

major share to Rosneft, coming under state's direct control.

The power of this deal can be gaugedby the fact that the Chairman of Gazpromwho took the decision of selling 11% ofGazprom shares to Rosneft, Dmitri

Medvedev, has been appointed as

the President of a strictly FSB(formerly; KGB) controlled Russian Empire.

Gazprom Building, Moscow

British Petroleum's Russian subsidiary TNK-BP, which is Russia's 3rdLargest Oil company and operates in Russia through a deal withGazprom in which BP has 50% shares of company and the rest is


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divided among four Russian Oligarchs, has been under severe statepressure since June 2007, after which it has to sell various of its Oilfields in Siberia to Gazprom. In a later move, just two months ago,Russian interior ministry canceled the work permits of the TNK-BPmanagement staff alongwith the British appointed head of the

company. A fiercely hostile takeover.

The next possible target is LUKoil, the largestRussian Oil producer with a Net income of $12Billions in 2007 and a revenue of $80 Billions.ConocoPhilips is a direct 20% sharegholder ofLUKoil. Those who found themselves bitten bythe BP's debacle in Russia, must be worriedabout their money in ConocoPhilips stocks,value of which can be spiraling down if a

similar move is planned and executed.

LUKoil Head Quarters, Moscow.

Europe dwells on the Russian Oil and Gas supplies and Russia is aware of thedependency. On the 1st of January 2007, Gazprom imposed a 135% increment in the Gas

prices to Ukraine, very much irked by the success of the Orange revolution, which the

Russian authorities saw as a Western attempt of rising interference in the Russianbackyard.

A similar action is then repeated a fewmonths later against Belarus andGeorgia, followed by a series ofextremely hawkish flights of Tupolev Tu-160 Supersonic Russian bombers in Warformations, over the British and NATOfleets in the Arctic Oceans.

Reclaiming Sovereignty; Mighty Tupolevnow flies unchallenged over Arctic Seas

Getting Piping Hot

Three of the most important Oil and Gas Supply lines run throughGeorgia, the Baku-Tbilisi-Ceyhan (BTC), owned by British Petroleum, isof immense strategic importance, not only because it supplies to


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Europe, but also its status as a fuel guarantee for Israel in case of anyfuture Oil Embargo by the Arab States.

Having declining Oil production in

Saudi Arabia and rest of the MiddleEast, infact the whole world'sreserves have gone down, Russianand Central Asian Oil fields whichremained docile for a period of 15years due to spliting up of SovietUnion and followed by a hugeeconomic recession in the region,now all of a sudden have become allimportant. the 15 year slumber in

these areas means that these Oil wells have retained their deposits

while the rest of the world was in a supplyThe Georgian Connection: 3 most importantOil and Gas Supply Lines to Europe

fest. Most of the 90s saw the average Oil prices at $13 a barrel, due tosupply abundance in a uni-polar world, where the Arabs soldthemselves cheap. Now as the supplies are dwindling elsewhere, theseCentral Asian and Russian reserves have become Gold Mines,supplying Oil at $100 and above, Russia has announced its Re-entryresulting in a bi-polar world.


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A Dispute in the Pipeline

This is how the Entire region's pipeline network looks like. See closely,and one can figure out that other than Georgia no other countrycontrols the Oil Pipeline corridors to Europe except Russia itself. Oncethese Georgian corridors also in Russian controls, the Federation has

complete monopoly over the land routes.

Black Sea may Soon have a change of color

Putin has already sounded alarms of "calmly" tackling the presence ofNATO warships in Black Sea. The next possible target can be theCrimean peninsula of Ukraine, which serves as an important navalbase for controlling the Black Sea.

The Return of Crimean wars may be approaching

Controlling Black Seas means the effective blockade of South Europe.
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More importantly, it will serve as a deterrent to the US Air force'sforward Base in Turkey.

Red October

Russia is well prepared to put its feet on the pedal. Winter is fastapproaching, and Europe will soon be having an upsurge in Oildemand, Kremlin knows this and has already acted. Mid of October cansee a price hike of estimated 60% to the current crude levels. How badthe situation can be, it depends on how the US and Europe will respondto a move of this stature, a very harsh reaction will definitely pushcrude oil and gas prices a lot further in the vicinity of $200 and above.So if you are an Oil Trader, theres is only one advice, BUY!

A Perfect Timing for US?

It is of a strange and quite a conspiratorial view, that whenever USAwent into a war, it evaded an economic recession which was certain tohit the US economy.

The Great American Depression which started in 1929, remained till1940, when 1 out of every 5 farm workers was unemployed, and all ofa sudden Japan came in with a surprise invitation to war at PearlHarbor. Similarly, in 1980, another recession hit America, and Russianscame in with a surprise bail out for US in Afghanistan. In 1987 the DowJones Industrial Average was struck by a fall bigger than that of 1929's,the Index shed 22.6% of its value, a recovery was instituted through

deposits and savings bonds but it was short lived and the marketcontinued to slide even further, again, an American Allied SaddamHussain's forces crashed into Oil rich Kuwait, and over night wascondemned as a dictator and aggressor by the US, Operation DesertStorm was raged, USA was out of recession again.

Then in year 2000, the dot com bubble busted and the US economywent into a recession for a period of 8 months from March 2001 toNovember 2001. US had no Russia or Germany or Japan left to go intoa War with, and hence a War was invented, September 11 2001 wasdoctored and US again had a war to itself to rescue its economy.

The government spending whichincreases due to a war, lifts the economyout a deep recession. All AmericanMacro-Economists from MacNamara toLeebs are convinced of the fact thatAmerica uses war as a last resort to bailits economy out of trouble.


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The current Sub-Prime mortgage crises is the eventuality in motion,the superficial economic setup of an exhausted Fractional ReserveSystem has finally crumbled and has started feeding off itself, startingto sweep away the Global Banking empires with it. America andsubsequently the world, may very well be in the deepest economic

slowdown ever. With this evidence it is not a surprise if later it will beestablished that it was USA rather than Russia which preempted thesituation. Given the circumstances, the Russian interference is anotherchance for US to quickly jump over and seize the moment; or it atleastlooks like it!

Sub Prime Crisis; The Alarm that disturbed theAmerican Dream!

has the butterfly just flapped its wings

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