have isaf been successful in afghanistan? dan viner

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Have ISAF Been Successful In Afghanistan? Dan Viner

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Page 1: Have ISAF Been Successful In Afghanistan? Dan Viner

Have ISAF Been Successful In Afghanistan?

Dan Viner

Page 2: Have ISAF Been Successful In Afghanistan? Dan Viner

What Happened in 2001?

In response to 9/11…• On 7th October, a “...series of

air and cruise missile attacks began on the terrorist camps of Osama bin Laden and the military installations of the Taliban...” – Tony Blair 8th October 2001

• Troops landed and took

control of Kabul

• New, interim government under Karzai came to power

in December.

Page 3: Have ISAF Been Successful In Afghanistan? Dan Viner

Research Methods

• National Archives

• Parliamentary minutes

• NATO/ISAF websites• Other online archives and sources

(eg The Times)

Page 4: Have ISAF Been Successful In Afghanistan? Dan Viner

The Political Justification

• “We are in conflict with Osama bin Laden and the Taliban regime because the terrorists killed thousands of innocent people...and because the Taliban…gave them succour” [Tony Blair – Parliamentary speech: 8th Oct 2001]

Page 5: Have ISAF Been Successful In Afghanistan? Dan Viner

Political Objectives

1. Prevent terrorist attacks on Western soil

2. Protect Western public

3. Stop foreign states training and harbouring terrorists

4. Root out and destroy Bin Laden and terrorist networks

Page 6: Have ISAF Been Successful In Afghanistan? Dan Viner

ISAF (Military) Objectives

1. To protect the people

2. To build the capacity of the Afghan security forces

3. To counter the insurgency

4. To enable the delivery of stronger governance and development

Page 7: Have ISAF Been Successful In Afghanistan? Dan Viner
Page 8: Have ISAF Been Successful In Afghanistan? Dan Viner

The Real Objectives?

1. To protect the people- of the West

2. To build the capacity of the Afghan security forces - and let them stop the terrorists

3. To counter the insurgency - against our invading troops

4. To enable the delivery of stronger governance and development

- so they don’t harbour terrorists

Page 9: Have ISAF Been Successful In Afghanistan? Dan Viner

Success?

1. No

ISAF/Military Objectives

PoliticalObjectives

Page 10: Have ISAF Been Successful In Afghanistan? Dan Viner

The cost to the Afghan people has been significant

YearAnti-govn't

forcesPro-govn't

forcesOther Total % change

% killings by Taliban

2006 699 230   929   75.24

2007 700 629 194 1,523 63.94 45.96

2008 1,160 828 130 2,118 39.07 54.77

2009 1,630 596 186 2,412 13.88 67.58

2010 2,037 427 326 2,790 15.67 73.01

2011 2,332 410 279 3,021 8.28 77.19

TOTAL:2007-2011

8,558 3,120 1,115 12,793   66.90

SOURCE: UNAMA

Page 11: Have ISAF Been Successful In Afghanistan? Dan Viner

Success?

1. No (civilians)

2. Yes (forces)

3. Not yet (insurgency) 4. Not yet (development)

1. Yes (our civilians)

2. Yes (terrorists)

3. Not yet (insurgency) 4. Not yet (governmeent)

ISAF/Military Objectives

PoliticalObjectives

So, has it all been successful?

Page 12: Have ISAF Been Successful In Afghanistan? Dan Viner

There is no clear conclusion…

– Political: Well on way to achieving objectives

– ISAF/Military result: 2 possible views…• Yes: Made huge progress and well on the way

to fulfilling their objectives• No: Haven’t succeeded in any area, civilian

casualties worsening and not enough battle-ready army battalions

The West is backing off, withdrawing troops and leaving the Afghans to sort out the mess

Page 13: Have ISAF Been Successful In Afghanistan? Dan Viner