have isaf been successful in afghanistan? dan viner
TRANSCRIPT
Have ISAF Been Successful In Afghanistan?
Dan Viner
What Happened in 2001?
In response to 9/11…• On 7th October, a “...series of
air and cruise missile attacks began on the terrorist camps of Osama bin Laden and the military installations of the Taliban...” – Tony Blair 8th October 2001
• Troops landed and took
control of Kabul
• New, interim government under Karzai came to power
in December.
Research Methods
• National Archives
• Parliamentary minutes
• NATO/ISAF websites• Other online archives and sources
(eg The Times)
The Political Justification
• “We are in conflict with Osama bin Laden and the Taliban regime because the terrorists killed thousands of innocent people...and because the Taliban…gave them succour” [Tony Blair – Parliamentary speech: 8th Oct 2001]
Political Objectives
1. Prevent terrorist attacks on Western soil
2. Protect Western public
3. Stop foreign states training and harbouring terrorists
4. Root out and destroy Bin Laden and terrorist networks
ISAF (Military) Objectives
1. To protect the people
2. To build the capacity of the Afghan security forces
3. To counter the insurgency
4. To enable the delivery of stronger governance and development
The Real Objectives?
1. To protect the people- of the West
2. To build the capacity of the Afghan security forces - and let them stop the terrorists
3. To counter the insurgency - against our invading troops
4. To enable the delivery of stronger governance and development
- so they don’t harbour terrorists
Success?
1. No
ISAF/Military Objectives
PoliticalObjectives
The cost to the Afghan people has been significant
YearAnti-govn't
forcesPro-govn't
forcesOther Total % change
% killings by Taliban
2006 699 230 929 75.24
2007 700 629 194 1,523 63.94 45.96
2008 1,160 828 130 2,118 39.07 54.77
2009 1,630 596 186 2,412 13.88 67.58
2010 2,037 427 326 2,790 15.67 73.01
2011 2,332 410 279 3,021 8.28 77.19
TOTAL:2007-2011
8,558 3,120 1,115 12,793 66.90
SOURCE: UNAMA
Success?
1. No (civilians)
2. Yes (forces)
3. Not yet (insurgency) 4. Not yet (development)
1. Yes (our civilians)
2. Yes (terrorists)
3. Not yet (insurgency) 4. Not yet (governmeent)
ISAF/Military Objectives
PoliticalObjectives
So, has it all been successful?
There is no clear conclusion…
– Political: Well on way to achieving objectives
– ISAF/Military result: 2 possible views…• Yes: Made huge progress and well on the way
to fulfilling their objectives• No: Haven’t succeeded in any area, civilian
casualties worsening and not enough battle-ready army battalions
The West is backing off, withdrawing troops and leaving the Afghans to sort out the mess