hazelnut presentation january 2013 presented by ufuk Özongun olam international limited 1
TRANSCRIPT
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Hazelnut PresentationJanuary 2013
Presented by Ufuk ÖzongunOlam International Limited
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World hazelnut farming areas
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Hazelnut farming areas/ha by countries
Turkey69%
Italy12%
Azarbaijan4%
Iran3%
Spain2% Georgia
2%
USA2%
China2%
Others4%
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World hazelnut supply in shell 2000–2012
2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 20120
200,000
400,000
600,000
800,000
1,000,000
1,200,000
1,400,000
550,000
670,000 640,000
480,000400,000
620.000
825.000
550,000
900,000
550.000
640,000
470.000
760.000
85,000
130,000120,000
80,000
135,000
88,000
140,000
128,000
110,000
105,000
90,000
135.000
80.000
25,000
26,00050,000
45,00035,000
28,000
25,000
27,000
28,000
30,000
32,000
55,000
40.000
25,000
44,00015,000
32,00035,000
25,000
37,000
33,000
36,000
29,000
42,000
35,000
30.000
12,000
25,000
25,000
22,00025,000
23,000
25,000
16,000
24,000
11,000
15,000
22,000
15.000
47,000
79,000
50,000
54,00060,000
48,000
62,000
64,000
70,000
50,000
67,000
27,000
20.000
16000
24000
21000
19000
22000
28000
30000
35.000
Turkey Italy Azerbaijan Georgia USA Spain Others
Estimated Demand
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World hazelnut kernel consumption 2000-2012
2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 20110
50,000
100,000
150,000
200,000
250,000
300,000
350,000
400,000
450,000
500,000
WORLD TOTAL
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Global supply
• Turkey remains the major source of hazelnuts• Improvement on the production side• Stable quantities in Italy and Spain, USA• Weather and seasonal differences affect the crop• Emerging countries like Georgia,Azarbaijan and Chile• New acreages in southern hemisphere countries • 2 crops in one year
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Hazelnut growing areas at Turkey
New Developing Region Traditional producing Region
Western Black Sea Eastern Black Sea
Sakarya16.8%
Duzce15.1%
Samsun14.3% Ordu
18.4% Giresun15.3%
Trabzon7.9%
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Hazelnut farming areas/Ha Turkey 2000-2012
2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2007 2008 2009 2011 20120
100000
200000
300000
400000
500000
600000
700000
800000
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Turkish hazelnut crop 2000-2012 mt
2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 20120
100,000
200,000
300,000
400,000
500,000
600,000
700,000
800,000
900,000
1,000,000
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Turkish Hazelnut Industry
• Traditional system governmental intervention FKB/TMO replaced with a new system free trade without FKB/TMO
• Mechanisation problems. • Small farms (350.000) increasing farming costs• Low average harvest per producer (68% below 2Mt)• Increasing hazelnut demand,volatile crops and price level• EU countries remains the main destination.• Confectionary usage is high -more than 80%• Factories in Turkey produce using the latest technology and with a high level of
food safety• Emerging export markets like China,Russia,Middle East and South America.
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Global Supply 2012
(Origin) 2009 2010 2011 2012
( Inshell Mts)
( Inshell Mts)
( Inshell Mts)
( Inshell Mts)
Turkey 550.000 640.000 470.000 760.000
Italy 95.000 87.000 120.000 80.000
Azerbaijan 30.000 35.000 50.000 40.000
Georgia 27.000 30.000 30.000 35.000
USA 32.000 25.000 32.000 30.000
Spain 18.000 20.000 25.000 15.000Others 27.000 27.000 27.000 20.000
Total 779.000 864.000 754.000 980.000
Turkey78%
Italy8%
Azarbai-jan4%
Georgia3%
USA3%
Spain2%
Others2%
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Turkish hazelnut kernel price FOB USD / KG1-S
ep
11-S
ep
21-S
ep
1-O
ct
11-O
ct
21-O
ct
31-O
ct
10-N
ov
20-N
ov
30-N
ov
10-D
ec
20-D
ec
30-D
ec
9-J
an
19-J
an
29-J
an
8-F
eb
18-F
eb
28-F
eb
9-M
ar
19-M
ar
29-M
ar
8-A
pr
18-A
pr
28-A
pr
8-M
ay
18-M
ay
28-M
ay
7-J
un
17-J
un
27-J
un
7-J
ul
17-J
ul
27-J
ul
6-A
ug
16-A
ug
26-A
ug4.00
4.50
5.00
5.50
6.00
6.50
7.00
7.50
8.00
2010-2011 2011-2012 2012-2013
Prices of Turkish Hazelnut kernels 1950 to 2012 US$ per 100 kg CPT EU
Sep
-50
Sep
-52
Sep
-54
Sep
-56
Sep
-58
Sep
-60
Sep
-62
Sep
-64
Sep
-66
Sep
-68
Sep
-70
Sep
-72
Sep
-74
Sep
-76
Sep
-78
Sep
-80
Sep
-82
Sep
-84
Sep
-86
Sep
-88
Sep
-90
Sep
-92
Sep
-94
Sep
-96
Sep
-98
Sep
-00
Sep
-02
Sep
-04
Sep
-06
Sep
-08
Sep
-10
Sep
-12
$0
$200
$400
$600
$800
$1,000
$1,200
Surplus of hazelnutsStable export prices determined by FiskobirlikDemand in the international markets increased
Small crop 1979
Small crop 1985Tschernobly 1986Small Crop 1987
Frost 23.04.1993
Interventions of Fiskobirlik in the
market
Small Crop 2003Frost damage 2004
Good Crop 2001Government denounces intervention policy
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Expected crop is 36-38.000 stons
Blank nuts during harvest
Very good quality, no mould and decay
Most products are sold or commited
Expect little carry over end of season
Hazelnut farming started with lead of Ferrero
Reached 13.000 ha, expected 25.000 ha in 2019/20
Suitable land for mechanisation
Low farming cost
Oregon/USA Chile
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Around 20.000 ha and 35.000 mt crop
Big product size, but low yield 38-40%
Low labor costs, unefficient technologies
Exports kernels to neighbouring countries and in shell to Far East
25.000 ha area and 40.000 mt crop
Average yield 35-38% Low mechanisation o
farming side Factories for cracking
and selecting Exports mainly to
Russia and EU
Georgia Azarbaijan
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Market trends
• Development of new products with hazelnut kernels as an ingredient• European Market is stagnant, but still on high level• Hard Discount retail chains are expanding• Demand increasing across all markets
• East European Markets increasing due to growth in the confectionary industry
• in the American Market through imports of branded products • New markets in Asia and Far East
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Looking into the Future
• Crops likely to be stable , unlikely to increase in Turkey, Italy, Spain and Oregon but growing in Georgia, Azarbaijan and Chile
• Sustainibility and Tracebility likely to be buzzwords in the coming future
• Increasing ‘Farm to the fork’ focus• Increasing price levels • Major buyer’s developing farming projects • Global player’s entrance to the hazelnut market • Promotion activities
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THANK YOU
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Questions?