hdd capital spending and technology developments from 2012 -...
TRANSCRIPT
YEARS OF DESTINY: HDD CAPITAL SPENDING
AND TECHNOLOGY DEVELOPMENTS FROM
2012-2016
Tom CoughlinEd Grochowski
Coughlin Associates1© 2012 Coughlin Associates
WW DISK CAPACITY SHIPMENTS (1999 THROUGH 2016).
6© 2012 Coughlin Associates
88 92 96 100 104 108 112 116
Production Year
1E+3
1E+4
1E+5
1E+6
1E+7
1E+8
1E+9
1E+10
1E+11
1E+12
Byt
es S
hipp
ed/Y
ear
CGR = 75%
1021
1020
1019
1018
1017
1016
1015
2000 04 08 12 16
1022
1023
1024
11A.
PRZ
HDD Exabyte CurveFrom Multiple SourcesEd Grochowski/Tom Coughlin
Petabytes
Exab
ytes
Zetabytes
AVERAGE $/GB FOR HDDS AND FLASH MEMORY.
16© 2012 Coughlin Associates
1990 1995 2000 2005 2010 2015
Year
0.01
0.1
1
10
100
1000
10000
100000
DRAMFlash
DesktopMobile
Enterprise1"
Average Retail Prices of Storage
Ed Grochowski 2011
32 GB Flash
Desktop HDD
Mobile HDD
1 " HDD
DRAM/Flash
3 TB Desktop
1.5TB Desktop 500 GB Mobile Drive
300 GB/15K Server
750 GB Desktop
2TB Desktop
Enterprise HDD
HDD AREAL DENSITY GROWTH AND PROJECTIONS.
20© 2012 Coughlin Associates
90 95 100 105 110 115
Production Year
1E+1
1E+2
1E+3
1E+4
1E+5
1E+6
1E+7A
real
Den
sity
GIg
abits
/in2
HDD ProductsHDD Productsw/PMR
HDD Areal Density Perspective
1st MR Head
1st GMR Head
2000 2005 2010 2015
Ed Grochowski
60% CGR
100% CGR
1st AFC Media
PerpendicularRecording
103
102
10
104
25% CGR
4K Region
40% CGR
HAMR Head
1
10-1
10-2
TMR Head
>300 Million X Increase
25% CGR
104
103
102
10
1
10-1
10-2
SMR BPMMAMR?
AREAL DENSITY GROWTH OF HDDS AND FLASH MEMORY
17© 2012 Coughlin Associates
90 95 100 105 110 115
Production Year
1E+1
1E+2
1E+3
1E+4
1E+5
1E+6
1E+7A
real
Den
sity
GIg
abits
/in2
HDDProductsFlashProducts
HDD/Flash Areal Density Perspective
1st MR Head
1st GMR Head
2000 2005 2010 2015
Copyright Ed Grochowski
60% CGR
100% CGR
1st AFC Media
PerpendicularRecording
103
102
10
1044K SectorRegion
40% CGR
1
10-1
10-2
TMR Head
16MB64MB
256MB
512MB
1 GB2 GB
4 GB8 GB
16 GB (2 MLC)32 GB (2 MLC)
64 GB (3 MLC ?)8 GB 20nm
BANDED HDD UNIT VOLUME ESTIMATES.
8© 2012 Coughlin Associates
0
200,000
400,000
600,000
800,000
1,000,000
1,200,000
1,400,000
2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016
High EstimateMedian EstimateLow Estimate
ESTIMATES OF DRIVE, HEADS AND DISKS TO 2016.
7© 2012 Coughlin Associates
2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016MAGNETIC HEADS 1,241,136 1,424,939 1,521,262 1,764,546 1,720,248 1,741,597 2,027,086 2,403,859 2,792,790 3,291,203MAGNETIC DISKS 789,104 897,439 955,515 1,109,600 1,070,733 1,080,392 1,239,668 1,471,683 1,782,153 2,046,655DISK DRIVES 501,400 539,583 563,600 653,604 622,592 606,876 690,789 787,616 899,840 1,026,885
0
500,000
1,000,000
1,500,000
2,000,000
2,500,000
3,000,000
3,500,000
Units
(tho
usan
ds)
MAGNETIC HEADS
MAGNETIC DISKS
DISK DRIVES
PROJECTIONS FOR HDD CAPACITES AT VARIOUS FORM FACTORS
23© 2012 Coughlin Associates
98 100 102 104 106 108 110 112 114 116
Availability Year
1
10
100
1000
10000H
DD
Cap
acity
, GB
ytes
HDD CapacityRoadmap
2000 02 04 06 08 2010 12 14 16
HD
D ro
adm
ap20
11B.
prz
Ed Grochowski/Tom Coughlin
1 GB
8.1 GB
1.0 inch
2.5 inch
3.5 inch form factor
4 GB
20 GB
1.8 inch12 GB
250 GB
300 GB
750GB Server 10K RPM2000 GB Desktop 7200 RPM
36GB Server15K RPM
750 GB
4TB Mobile 5400 RPM
12TB Desktop 7200 RPM
300 GB Server15K RPM 1.5TB
2.5TB Server 10K RPM
INDUSTRY HDD MTBF SPECIFICATIONS.
24© 2012 Coughlin Associates
1985 1990 1995 2000 2005 2010 2015 2020Product Ship Date
0200400600800
1000120014001600180020002200
2400A
s sp
ecifi
ed M
TBF,
khr
s.Industry HDD MTBF Specifications
Ed Grochowski
HDD TECHNOLOGY INTRODUCTION WITH UNIT VOLUME GROWTH.
21© 2012 Coughlin Associates
2000 2002 2004 2006 2008 2010 2012 2014 2016
Production Year
0
400
800
1200
0
HD
D U
nits
, Mill
ions
HDD Production RoadmapTechnologies Introduction
PMR HeadsTMR Heads
8 Inch Head Substrates
TFC
PBM
HAMRFePt
Ed Grochowski/Tom Coughlin
HD
D P
rodu
ctio
n R
oadm
ap 2
011B
Imprint Tooling
AFC Media
DSA
MAMR
E E E
Shingled Write
4K Sectors
Triple Patterning
BLOCK OVERWRITING PROCESS IN SMR
© 2012 Coughlin Associates 30
AREAL DENSITY AND DISK COERCIVITY EVOLUTION.
45© 2012 Coughlin AssociatesDisk Coercivity, KOe
Areal D
ensity, G
bits/in2
ServerDesktopMobile
1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10
1000
100
10
1
0.1
Write Head Limits
AFC Media
PerpendicularRecording
LITHOGRAPHY ROADMAP SHOWING HDD HEAD AND BPM/BPM TRENDS VS. ITRS
SEMICONDUCTOR REQUIREMENTS.
31© 2012 Coughlin Associates
2000 2002 2004 2006 2008 2010 2012 2014
Production Year
10
100
1000
Line
wid
th (n
m)
800
80
600
60
400
40
200
20
ITR
S R
oadm
ap20
11.p
rz
193
nm L
ithog
raph
yW
ater
Imm
ersi
onLithography RoadmapBased on Multiple Sources
PBM
201619
3 nm
Lith
ogra
phy
Imm
ersi
on
Dou
ble
Patte
rn
193
nm L
ithog
raph
yIm
mer
sion
, Im
prin
t EU
V, S
elf A
ssm
.Tr
iple
Pat
tern
SELF-ALIGNING DOUBLE PATTERN LITHOGRAPHY
Ed Grochowski
First Pattern PhotoresistOn Hardmask layer
Deposition
First PatternRemoval
Final PatternTrim Mask Required
XX
Spacer FormationBy Etching
Etching WithSpacer Mask
X/2
33© 2012 Coughlin Associates
© 2012 Coughlin Associates 32
EXPERIMENTAL EUV EXPOSURE TOOL
Source O. Wood GLOBALFOUNDRIES
6-L.ayer Reflective Optics
EUV Exposure Tool
Rllllectlwt MDk
illuminator Optics ......
Wafer HP = k1A1NA
MAGNETIC RECORDING TRILEMMA.
© 2012 Coughlin Associates 38
Writeability(2.4 Tesla)
Thermal StabilityKuV/kT
SNR Log10 N
HEAT ASSISTED MAGNETIC RECORDING
© 2012 Coughlin Associates 46
Coercivity
Media Temperature
Head Field
Toperating Twrite
Heating
Cooling
Source: Seagate Technology Corp.
EVOLUTION OF PERPENDICULAR MAGNETIC RECORDING MEDIA.
© 2012 Coughlin Associates 35
< ~ }
~ Early PMR Media
Lubricant +Carbon OVercoat
Hard Magnetic Layer
Ru Exchange Layer
Magnetic Underlayer Ru Exchange Layer Magnetic Underlayer
Soft Underlayer
Seed
B-Layer ECC Media
ADVANCED ECC MAGNETIC MEDIA STRUCTURES
© 2012 Coughlin Associates 36
BLOCK COPOLYMER SELF ASSEMBLY.
(Photo Courtesy IBM Almaden Research Center)
39© 2012 Coughlin Associates
STRUCTURE OF TMR AND GMR CPP SENSORS.
© 2012 Coughlin Associates 44
NiFe Bottom ShieldCurrent Direction
NiFe Top Shield
ConductingNon-Conducting
CPP TMR
CPP GMR
CPP
GM
R T
MR
2011
Magnet
Seed Layer
Reference Layer
AFM
Pinned LayerRu
CuFree Layer
Cap
CPP TMR Read Head Technology
Seed Layer
Reference Layer
AFM
Pinned LayerRu
MgO BarrierFree Layer
Cap
Seed Layer
Reference Layer
AFM
Pinned LayerRu
MgO BarrierFree Layer
Cap
HDD COMPONENT TESTING/METROLOGY ROADMAP VS.
AREAL DENSITY.
58© 2012 Coughlin Associates
100 105 110 115
Production Year
1E+4
1E+5
1E+6
1E+7
Are
al D
ensi
ty G
Igab
its/in
2
2000 2002 2004 2006 2008 2010 2012E 2014E 2016E
Edward Grochowski
103
102
10
104
HDD Metrology Roadmap
0.5 x-y100 C z
0.5 x-y80 C z
0.5 x-y50 C z
0.1 x-y20 C z
0.1 x-y10 C z
AFM
AOI
High ResolutionAOI
Interferometry/ReflectivityMedia Defect Detection
Ellipsometry
Beam Deconvolution
5% Magnetic Sampling
High ResolutionOptical Testing
3D MetrologyAdvanced Vibrometry
100% OpticalTesting
HEAT ASSISTED MAGNETIC RECORDING WITH LASER SOURCE IN
THE HEAD
© 2012 Coughlin Associates 47
HEAT MICROWAVE ASSISTED MAGNETIC RECORDING (MAMR)
PROCESS
© 2012 Coughlin Associates 49
MA
MR
2011
C.c
dr
Writing Pole Trailing Shield
Disk Media
Soft Underlayer
I
Electrode Electrode
Easy axisOscillating stack
Ref: Prof Jimmy Zhu, CMU
Layer withperpendicular
Anisotropy
Field generationlayer (FGL)
MetalInterlayer
Perpendicularlymagnetized
reference layer
DEVELOPMENT OF BIT ASPECT RATIO WITH TIME.
53© 2012 Coughlin Associates
92 94 96 98 100 102 104 106 108 110 112 114 116
Availability Year
0
5
10
15
20
25
30B
it A
spec
t Rat
io
Server-BARDesktop-BARMobile-BAR
92 94 96 98 2000 02 04 06 08 10 12 14 16
Projected Future Trend
TRACK DENSITY, LINEAR DENSITY AND AREAL DENSITY TRENDS.
© 2012 Coughlin Associates 52
90 94 98 102 106 110 114
Production Year
1E+1
1E+2
1E+3
1E+4
1E+5
1E+6
Are
al D
ensi
ty, m
bits
/in2
Track, Areal, Linear Density Perspective
105
104
103
102
10
Line
ar D
ensi
ty, k
bits
/in
Trac
k D
ensi
ty, t
rack
s/in
p
Circles = Server productsSquares = Mobile products
Triangles = Desktop products106
90 92 94 96 98 2000 02 04 06 08 10 12 14 16
Ed Grochowski
AD CGR = 25%
Track CGR = 16%
Linear CGR = 8%
106
105
104
103
102
HDD SPACING AND AREAL DENSITY RELATIONSHIP.
50© 2012 Coughlin Associates
1 10 100
Physical Spacing, nm
1
10
100
1000Areal Den
sity, G
bits/in2
Lab Demos2.5/1.8 inchmobile HDD3.5 inchServer HDD3.5 inchDesktopHDD
Ed GrochowskiThermal FlyingHeight Control
ContactRecording
Includes Take‐off Height
HDD COMPANY REVENUE AND INDUSTRY CAPITAL EQUIPMENT
SPENDING ESTIMATES (2007 TO 2016).Year Total HDD Est.
Revenue Total HDD
Industry Capital Est. Equipment
Spending
% Capital Equipment
Spending/Revenue
2007 $32.6 B $2.28 B 7.0% 2008 $32.9 B $2.37 B 7.2% 2009 $30.2 B $1.35 B 4.5% 2010 $34.8 B $3.01 B 8.6% 2011 $41.5 B $3.64 B 8.8% 2012 $48.5 B $4.23 B 8.7% 2013 $54.2 B $4.83 B 8.9% 2014 $60.5 B $5.66 B 9.4% 2015 $67.6 B $6.77 B 10.0%
Total (2007-2015)
$402.7 B $34.14 B 8.1% (avg)
59© 2012 Coughlin Associates