healthy competition: how adversarial reasoning is leading the next wave of innovation
TRANSCRIPT
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HEALTHY COMPETITION: HOW ADVERSARIAL REASONING IS LEADING THE NEXT WAVE OF INNOVATION Nashville Analytics Summit August 8-9, 2017 John Liu, PhD CFA Digital Reasoning
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DIGITAL REASONINGTrusted Cognitive Computing For A Better World
Machine Learning platform that understands
human communication
NashvilleWashington
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HealthcareData Science
DIGITAL REASONING | CONFIDENTIAL
Prepared Exclusively for Intel Capital
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WarGames (1983)
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3 big ideas…
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current algorithms lack robustness
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bad data
fake data
dark data
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adversarial reasoning to the rescue
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a quick review of AI…
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machine learning
learns feature weights
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neural networks
universal approximation
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deep learning
automated feature learning
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reinforcement learning
learning policies
observations
actions
agent
environment(delayed)
reward
policy
value
state
model
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deep reinforcement learning
sparse, delayed rewards
value fndeepnet
policydeepnet
modeldeepnet
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they suffer limitations
arising from…
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noisy data
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sparse data
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missing data
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nonstationary environments
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that cause problems
like…
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false positives
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bad decisions
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bad policies
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we ask this question…
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are there robust
algorithms that can operate
in the wild?
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does it really matter?
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sometimes, yes, very much…
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what if…
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noise is not random…
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and is intentionally false…
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what if there is an active
adversary...
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like a hacker
messing around…
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or a hacker not messing around…
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or even worse?
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An algorithm that can learns to counter active
adversaries is more robust in the wild.
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what hasn’t
worked:
failed defenses include...
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generative pre-training
adding noise
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model ensembles
regularization dropout
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researchers are turning to adversarial reasoning…
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what is adversarial reasoning?
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understanding the intent & actions of your opponent…
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contest of actions & rewards…
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incorporating active deception & diversion…
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adversarial model
manipulation of data
model adversary
environment
predic1onac1onpolicy
truedata
falsedata
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Core concepts of adversarial reasoning Include…
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intent inference
plan inference
deception detection
countermeasure modeling
strategy formulation
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Intent & plan inference
Bayesian network graphs
A5acker
Intent
Knowledge
ProbingAc1vity
MaliciousAc1vity
Evidence
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games with deception
stochastic, partially observable
simultaneousplayNashequilibrium
sequen1alplayStackelberggame
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methods of deception
mimicry
decoy
masking
doubleplay
semantic/cognitive attacks
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mimicry
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decoy
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masking
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doubleplay
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Operation Fortitude
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detecting deception
linguistic cues
information trajectory map
info-theoretic value ranking
multi-agent ensembling
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Countering deception
predict/ignore bad data
fuzzy logic/soft margins
risk weighting
Bayesian filter
abstract info from data
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new algorithms
incorporating adversarial
reasoning...
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actor-critic method
actor critic
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actor-critic model
policy improvement
policy evaluation
actor cri1c
experiencereplay
“cooperate”adversaries
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RL deadly triad
bootstrapping
off-policylearning
DLfunc1onapproxima1on
instability&divergence
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A3C method
multiple actors
critic
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A3C method
actors cri1c
experiencereplaynotnecessary
actorsactors
mul1pleactorsstabilizelearning
fast
overcomesdecep1on
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A3C comparison
A3ConCPUonly
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A3C demonstration
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generative adversarial network
realworldimages
discriminator loss
generatornoise
fake
real
learnsdecep1on
adversarial
generatorvsdiscriminator
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early GAN
lacked deep semantics
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generative faces
thesearenotrealpeople
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generative aging
maynotbetrueaging
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generative ideas
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variational autoencoder
Stitchfix style transfer
latentvector
encodervsdecoder
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VAE face transitions
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adversarial learning leads to robustness
adversarial learning algos rapidly coming to market
in summary
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THANKS
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