healthy places: the community of tomorrow. usa population 2000 –275 million people –median age:...
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Healthy Places: The Community of Healthy Places: The Community of TomorrowTomorrow
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USA PopulationUSA Population
20002000– 275 million people275 million people– Median age: 35.8 yrsMedian age: 35.8 yrs
20302030– 351 million people351 million people– Median age: 39 yrsMedian age: 39 yrs
Source: US Census Bureau
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USA PopulationUSA Population(in millions)(in millions)
275,000,000
351,000,000
0
50,000,000
100,000,000
150,000,000
200,000,000
250,000,000
300,000,000
350,000,000
400,000,000
2000 2030
Source: US Census Bureau
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USA PopulationUSA PopulationMedian AgeMedian Age
36 39
0
5
10
15
20
25
30
35
40
45
2000 2030Source: US Census Bureau
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USA Population 2000 by Age GroupsUSA Population 2000 by Age Groups
28%
20%
39%
13%
19 and under 20 to 34 35 to 54 65+
Source: US Census Bureau
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USA Population 2030 by Age GroupsUSA Population 2030 by Age Groups
26%
19%35%
20%
19 and under 20 to 34 35 to 54 65+
Source: US Census Bureau
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USA Population 2000-2030 USA Population 2000-2030 by Age Groupsby Age Groups
19%
12%
22%
47%
19 and under 20 to 34 35 to 54 65+
Source: US Census Bureau
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Changes with ageChanges with age
HousingHousing– Housing choices change as people ageHousing choices change as people age– ““Empty Nester” housingEmpty Nester” housing– Assisted LivingAssisted Living
TransportationTransportation– Mobility is decreasedMobility is decreased– Driving a car eventually is not an optionDriving a car eventually is not an option– Decrease of activity can lead to health declineDecrease of activity can lead to health decline
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Changing Housing ChoicesChanging Housing Choices
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Senior Housing ChoicesSenior Housing Choices
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Percent Preferring a Townhouse in the CityPercent Preferring a Townhouse in the CityPercent Preferring a Townhouse in the CityPercent Preferring a Townhouse in the City
Dowell MyersUSC School of Policy, Planning, and Development
Percent Preferring a Townhouse in the City
0
5
10
15
20
25
30
25-34 35-44 45-54 55+
Age GroupNAHB, 1999
National
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Percent Calling Factor Very Important Percent Calling Factor Very Important if Buying a Home Todayif Buying a Home Today
Percent Calling Factor Very Important Percent Calling Factor Very Important if Buying a Home Todayif Buying a Home Today
Dowell MyersUSC School of Policy, Planning, and Development
Percent Calling Factor Very Important if Buying a Home Today
0
10
20
30
40
50
60
70
80
90
25-34 35-44 45-54 55+
Age Group
Crime Rate
School District
HighwayAccess
Location toShopping
PublicTransportation
NAHB, 1999
Percent Calling Factor Very Important if Buying a Home Today
0
10
20
30
40
50
60
70
80
90
25-34 35-44 45-54 55+
Age Group
Crime Rate
School District
HighwayAccess
Location toShopping
PublicTransportation
NAHB, 1999
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Problems with Zoning Problems with Zoning
Plans tend to replicate existing Plans tend to replicate existing trendstrendsMany favor large lot, expensive Many favor large lot, expensive housinghousingThey are often barriers to higher They are often barriers to higher density uses and rental unitsdensity uses and rental unitsMarket cannot respond to needs Market cannot respond to needs and changesand changes
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Regional Housing Needs Regional Housing Needs AssessmentAssessment
May 2004
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The Chicago Region
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Cities and Villages of the Region
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Population age 30-54 Population age 30-54 2000 Housing Patterns – Chicago 2000 Housing Patterns – Chicago
RegionRegion
52%
19%
29%
SFR Attached Small Apts
Source: Census Bureau
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Population 65+Population 65+2000 Housing Patterns - Chicago2000 Housing Patterns - Chicago
50%
14%
22%
14%
SFR Attached Small Apts Large Apts
Source: Census Bureau
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Population 65+Population 65+2030 Housing Patterns – Chicago Region2030 Housing Patterns – Chicago Region
41%
39%
35%
71%
0% 20% 40% 60% 80%
SFR
Attached
Small Apts
Large Apts
A majority of residents in large apartment complexes will be 65 or older
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Chicago Region Housing MismatchChicago Region Housing MismatchTrend (NIPC) Projected Need vs. Zoning SupplyTrend (NIPC) Projected Need vs. Zoning Supply
0
20,000
40,000
60,000
80,000
100,000
120,000
140,000
160,000
Projected Need Supply
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Apartment/CondominiumApartment/Condominium
$300 - $1500 rent$300 - $1500 rent
urban and suburbanurban and suburban
redev, infill and redev, infill and greenfieldgreenfield
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TownhouseTownhouseTrend = 71,000 unitsTrend = 71,000 units
Matched Demand = Matched Demand = 152,000 units152,000 units
$600 - $2000$600 - $2000
urban and suburbanurban and suburban
redev, infill and redev, infill and greenfieldgreenfield
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Small Lot Single FamilySmall Lot Single Family
Trend = 24,000 unitsTrend = 24,000 units
Matched Demand = Matched Demand = 202,000 units202,000 units
$700 - $2500$700 - $2500
urban and suburbanurban and suburban
infill and greenfieldinfill and greenfield
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Below Market RentBelow Market Rent
Matched Demand = Matched Demand = 73,000 units73,000 units
$0 - $500$0 - $500
urban and suburbanurban and suburban
redev, infill and redev, infill and greenfieldgreenfield
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Waukegan StrategiesWaukegan Strategies
Capitalize on Lakefront setting in Corridor Development
Station Area DevelopmentInfill in Urban Neighborhoods
East-West Corridor Enhancement
Downtown Revitalization
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Transportation IssuesTransportation Issues
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Transportation ProblemsTransportation Problems
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Alternatives to DrivingAlternatives to Driving
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Pedestrians in the Conventional Suburban Development
supporting alternative modes through urban design
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supporting alternative modes through urban design
Pedestrians: 25th Anniversary of the Moonwalk
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Solution: Walkable CitiesSolution: Walkable CitiesHousing ChoiceHousing Choice
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What makes people walk?What makes people walk?
– Walkable Walkable DistancesDistances
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What makes people walk?What makes people walk?
– Practical DestinationsPractical Destinations
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What makes people walk?What makes people walk?
– Pleasant and Pleasant and Interesting Interesting Environment, a Environment, a Human ScaleHuman Scale
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Pleasant Environment Pleasant Environment
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The 2040 Growth ConceptThe 2040 Growth Concept
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The 2040 Growth ConceptThe 2040 Growth Concept
The 2040 Growth Concept results The 2040 Growth Concept results in:in:
Less CongestionLess Congestion
Less Transportation investmentLess Transportation investment
More walk, bike, and transit tripsMore walk, bike, and transit trips
What Makes 2040 WorkWhat Makes 2040 Work
– Mixed use designMixed use design
– Density in proximity to commerce and Density in proximity to commerce and transittransit
– Mixed age and income neighborhoodsMixed age and income neighborhoods
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RIVER DISTRICT 1999RIVER DISTRICT 1999
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VMT per Capita and Transit Ridership per Capita 1990 to 2000
Portland Metro Area
0.9
0.95
1
1.05
1.1
1.15
1.2
1.25
1.3
1990 1991 1992 1993 1994 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000
DVMT/ Capita
Ridership/ Capita
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Challenges for the RegionChallenges for the Region
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Project MethodologyProject Methodology
Extensive Public
Participation
Hands-on Workshops
Throughout the Region
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TransportationEconomyLand Use
Shared Values, Shared Future
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Strategic Land Use Changes In Strategic Land Use Changes In
Relatively Few Areas Provide Relatively Few Areas Provide
Great Benefits to the RegionGreat Benefits to the Region
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What can Governors do?What can Governors do?HousingHousing
Develop state or regional housing needs Develop state or regional housing needs analysis – identify how future housing needs analysis – identify how future housing needs change.change.
Monitor local housing markets, look for problems Monitor local housing markets, look for problems caused by undersupply of needed housingcaused by undersupply of needed housing
Develop state or regional housing fair share Develop state or regional housing fair share programs.programs.
Incentives and models for more flexible zoningIncentives and models for more flexible zoning
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What can Governors do?What can Governors do?TransportationTransportation
Support well rounded transportation Support well rounded transportation policies – multi modalpolicies – multi modal
Support connecting land use and Support connecting land use and transportationtransportation
Encourage the development of walkable Encourage the development of walkable cities and regionscities and regions
Raise the issues of seniors and mobilityRaise the issues of seniors and mobility
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For more Information, go to For more Information, go to www.frego.comwww.frego.com
333 S.W Fifth Avenue, Suite 300 Portland, OR 97204 503-228-3054 Fax 503-525-0478