heat wave risk mapping in europe for elderly people

Heat-Shield Meeting Workshop Vulnerability Mapping – May 17, The Netherlands

Vulnerability mapping for heat risks

in the elderly populationMorabito Marco & Alfonso CrisciInstitute of Biometeorology of the Italian National Research Council

[email protected]

mailto:[email protected]


Summary1. Study description of mapping the heat-related elderly risk in

several Italian cities.

2. Suggestion for the Heat-Shield Project: a proposal of occupational heat-wave vulnerability mapping.


Urban-Hazard Risk Analysis: Mapping of Heat-Related Risks

in the Elderly in Major Italian Cities

Main aim:

Development of high-resolution daytime and night-time heat-related population

risk maps, specifically referring to the elderly (people aged 65 or over) and to

summer (May-September), for the major Italian cities with different geographical

features (coastal and inland at different latitudes).

Hazard layer

Exposure layer

Vulnerability layer

Main materials:

1. Daytime and night-time summer LST layers

2. Total population

3. Elderly population



in the Elderly in Major Italian CitiesPeriod of study:May-September over a 13-year period (2001–2013)

Study areas:Eleven major Italian cities with more than 200,000 inhabitants were selected from all over the country

City characteristics• Inland plain cities: Milan, Padua, Bologna and Florence• Hybrid inland plain/hill city: Turin (average altitude of 239 m a.s.l)• Hybrid coastal/inland city: Rome more than 20 km distance between the city-

centre and the seaside • Coastal plain cites: Genoa, Bari, Naples, Palermo and Catania

Köppen climate classification of cities• Humid, Subtropical climate with little or no influence from the sea, and moderately hot summers: Milan, Padua,

Turin and Bologna.• Borderline humid Subtropical and Mediterranean climate, with a strong (Genoa) and moderate (Florence) influence

from the sea and hot-humid summers.• Typical Mediterranean climate, with significant influence from the sea and hot-dry summers: Rome, Naples, Bari,

Palermo and Catania.



in the Elderly in Major Italian CitiesStudy design:

Crichton’s Risk Triangle framework

A hazard-risk assessment methodology adopted through the

ASCCUE (Adaptation Strategies for Climate Change in the Urban

Environment) project.Crichton, 1999

If any component or “side” of the triangle is zero, then there is no risk

Natural hazard:defined as the LST increase

Total populationcensus data

Elderly population (over 65)



in the Elderly in Major Italian CitiesData used in the study:

Natural hazard layerRemote sensing MODIS

data productsThe ESA (European Space Agency)

Globcover land cover dataset

Daytime and nighttime LST at 8 days temporal

and 1-km spatial resolution (MOD11A2)

NDVI at 16 days temporal and at 250-m

spatial resolution(MYD13Q1)

Based on 22 land cover classes as per the UN-FAO Land Cover Classification System at 300-m

spatial resolution

Geostatistical and GIS procedures (written in R-language, i.e. the Geospatial Data Abstraction Library)

were used to homogenize the different spatial resolution of data layers

The monthly LST at 1-km resolution Resampled at 250-m

resolution Resampled at Summer (May-Sep) LST at 100-m resolution

DOWNSCALING PROCEDURE



in the Elderly in Major Italian CitiesData used in the study: Exposure and vulnerability layers

The Joint Research Centre (JRC) has produced a reaster dataset representing the 1-Km2 European population density on a 100-m grid by using the downscaling method described in Gallego

http://www.eea.europa.eu/data-and-maps/data/population-density-disaggregated-with-corine-land-cover-2000-2






in the Elderly in Major Italian CitiesWork-flow of the spatial urban-hazard risk analysis employed to develop the final mapping of the Heat-related Elderly Risk Index (HERI)

Normalization procedure(based on the Hazard Density Index)

Individual variables are normalized by dividing each

variable value from the maximum value of that variable across the complete study area

Weighted-layers procedure

The exposure and vulnerability layers were combined in a single “exposed and vulnerable” layer (each weighted at 50%) which

was spatially combined with the hazard layer (weighted at 50%)

HERI (value between 0 and 1)

To avoid subjective manipulation all weightings were kept equal



in the Elderly in Major Italian CitiesResults:

Daytime HERI Nighttime HERI

Maps of daytime and nighttime heat-related elderly risk (HERI) levels in the main inland Italian cities during the 2001–2013 summers (May-September).




Maps of daytime and nighttime heat-related elderly risk (HERI) levels in the main coastal Italian cities during the 2001–2013 summers (May-September).

Daytime HERI Nighttime HERI




Daytime heat-related elderly risk index levels for the most populous

inland Italian cities during the 2001–2013 summers

(May-September).

Interestingly, urban areas with the

hazardous HERI level were not necessarily characterized by the highest daytime LST



in the Elderly in Major Italian CitiesResults: Critical heat-risk urban areas identified with up-to-street-level details

Information useful to plan short-term (i.e. allocation of water supply, temporary health services, preparation of specific transport to cooling centres) and medium/long-term (i.e. encouraging greenings area,

modification of buildings surfaces) intervention strategies.


Suggestion for the Heat-Shield ProjectMapping of Occupational Heat-Related Risks

in Major European CitiesWe are actually working on the Heat-Wave classification and climatology

over the major European cities and on the heat-wave risk for vulnerable people

EuroHEAT (Improving Public Health Responses to extreme weather/heat-waves) project

• Periods of at least 2 days with Tappmax exceeding the 90th percentile of the monthly distribution

or• Periods of at least 2 days in which

Tmin exceeds the 90th percentile & Tappmax exceeds the median monthly value

D’Ippoliti et al., 2010Heat wave (HW) definitionDuration• Short HW: duration < the median• Long HW: duration ≥ the medianIntensity• Low intensity HW: Tappmax < 95th perc• High intensity HW: Tappmax ≥ 95th percTiming• The first HW of each summer• HWs that occurred between 1 and 3 days after the previous one;• HWs that occurred 3 or more days after the previous one

HW characteristics

There is no universally accepted heat-wave definitionBased on WMO description:

heat-waves are understood to be periods of unusually hot and dry or hot and humid weather with a detailed onset and cessation, a duration of at least two–three days,

usually with a discernible impact on human and natural systems.

WMO-No. 1142, 2015


Suggestion for the Heat-Shield ProjectHeat-wave classification (Hazard) over the 28-EU member countries capitals

Percentage of heat-wave days for the period 1980-1997 (May-September)


Suggestion for the Heat-Shield ProjectHeat-wave classification (Hazard) over the 28-EU member countries capitals

Percentage of heat-wave days for the period 1998-2015 (May-September)


Period 1998-2015Increase of the zonal flux over the NW Europe

Decrease over the South-Eastern and Norhtern Europe

Low pressure

High pressure

Suggestion for the Heat-Shield ProjectClimatological interpretation of the HW-geographical shift over Europe

Decrease of the zonal flux over the Northern Europe

Increase over the South-Eastern Europe

Period 1980-1997

High pressure

Low pressure


Suggestion for the Heat-Shield ProjectExposure and vulnerability layers


Suggestion for the Heat-Shield ProjectHeat–related elderly (≥ 75 years old) and children (≤ 4 years old) risk maps

HAZARDlayer

EXPOSED & VULNERABLE layer

% of HW days

Seasonal average number of long HWs

Population density (ab./km2)

% of vulnerable people (elderly and children)

Each scaled 0-1 and weighted 50% Each scaled 0-1 and weighted 50%

Heat-related Vulnerable Risk (value between 0 – 1)

(HAZARD layer x 0.50) + (EXPOSURE & VULNERABLE layer x 0.50)

< 0.2 very low; 0.2 – 0.4: low; 0.4 – 0.6: moderate; 0.6 – 0.8 high; > 0.8 very high

Heat-Vulnerability Risk levels


Suggestion for the Heat-Shield ProjectHeat–related elderly (≥ 75 years old) risk map for the period 1980 - 1997


Suggestion for the Heat-Shield ProjectHeat–related elderly (≥ 75 years old) risk map for the period 1997 - 2015


Suggestion for the Heat-Shield ProjectHeat–related children (≤ 4 years old) risk map for the period 1980 - 1997


Suggestion for the Heat-Shield ProjectHeat–related children (≤ 4 years old) risk map for the period 1998 - 2015


Suggestion for the Heat-Shield Project

Development of occupational heat-wave vulnerability mapping

• Hazard layer: Heat-wave parameters (i.e. the % of the HW days, long HWs, intense HWs, …)

Assessment of a Heat–related Occupational Risk Index for the main European cities

Mapping City-specific Heat-Wave-related Occupational Risk in Europe

• Exposure layer: Population density of people aged 20-65 years (working-age) or others age chategories

• Vulnerable layer: the city-specific % of the working-age population employed in specific occupational activities, i.e. those included in the Heat-Shield project:

• Manifacturing• Construction• Transportation• Tourism• Agricolture

Are these data available over the main European countries/cities?http://appsso.eurostat.ec.europa.eu/nui/show.dohttp://ec.europa.eu/eurostat/web/lfs/data/database

http://appsso.eurostat.ec.europa.eu/nui/show.do

http://appsso.eurostat.ec.europa.eu/nui/show.do

http://ec.europa.eu/eurostat/web/lfs/data/database

http://ec.europa.eu/eurostat/web/lfs/data/database


THANK YOU FOR THE

ATTENTION!!!For more information: Marco [email protected]

mailto:[email protected]

heat wave risk mapping in europe for elderly people

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