Heathrow Airport – 2015 Air Cargo Forecast

By: Mohammed Salem Awad

Aviation Consultant – Aden / Yemen

Introduction:

London Heathrow Airport (IATA:

LHR, ICAO: EGLL) is a major

international airport in West London,

England, United Kingdom. Heathrow

is the busiest airport in the United

Kingdom and the busiest airport in

Europe by passenger traffic.

Heathrow is also the third busiest

airport in the world by total passenger

traffic. In 2014, it handled a record

73.4 million passengers, a 1.4

increase from 2013.

Heathrow lies 12 nautical miles (22 km; 14 mi) west of Central London, and has two

parallel east–west runways along with five terminals on a site that covers 12.14 square

kilometers (4.69 sq mi). The airport is owned and operated by Heathrow Airport

Holdings, which itself is owned by FGP TopCo Limited, an international consortium

led by the Spanish Ferrovial Group that includes Caisse de dépôt et placement du

Québec and Government of Singapore Investment Corporation. Heathrow is the

primary hub for British Airways and the primary operating base for Virgin Atlantic.

The Airports Commission, an

independent commission chaired by Sir

Howard Davies and established in

September 2012 by the Government of

the United Kingdom has short-listed in

its interim report two options to expand

Heathrow along with a third option for

expanding Gatwick. The final report in

Summer 2015 will recommend how the

UK should maintain its global aviation

hub status.

The first phase of a new Terminal 2

complex opened in 2014. Terminal 5 was

voted Skytrax World's Best Airport

Terminal 2014 in the Annual World

Airport Awards.1

1 wiki

KPI For Airports:

Most of the airports in the world reports three parameters that indicate the general

performance for airport activity. These are Passengers, Aircraft Movements and

Cargo. these parameters indicate the KPI ( Key Performance Indicators).

In this sense, we have the historical data for Heathrow Airport of 3 years on monthly

bases, that may create a base line to predict the future.

Forecasting Model:

One of the new creative

methodology. It basically

developed based on two main

estimated mathematical

parameters, Displacement

and Directional factors which

has a consequence impacts on

R2 and Signal Tracking by

setting boundary accuracy:

The basic data span is 36

months ( Input ) with 12

months forecasting, the fair

boundary restricted by the

preset design values of R2 and

Signal Tracking. The

forecasting process has two stages, Evaluation, and Forecasting.

In the evaluation stage we try to analysis the input data, and align

the practical data with a mathematical model, we use state of art

forecasting program to fit data. Two control factors have a great

impact on the model, First displacement factor ( Displacement

Issue ), this factor acts to shift the whole data from it running

bath to a new one but keeping the trend and direction of the analysis. While the

second factor is Directional factor, definitely if we manipulate this factor and try to

use many trail values (positive and negative value), the model will position itself

accordingly as a clock about the origin( Rotational Issue ).

For Fair forecasting, the model should fulfill these criteria –

(Golden Rule)

R2 ≥ 80 and

Signal Tracking should be

- 4 ≤ S. T. ≤ + 4

Case Study :

Air Cargo Movement - Heathrow Airport

Input Data (Metric Tonnes)

Max/Min Signal Tracking

Analysis

Most of accuracy approaches are

addressed one directional side

that reported by one figure,

while Max/Min Signal Tracking

Analysis deal with the boundary

region that reflects max/min

extreme values about the trend

line of the input data.

Forecasting

In the graphs, there are two

lines, one is actual value and the

other is forecast ,

The difference between actual

figures and model numbers

called model errors in evaluation

model part ( before future

forecasting period ) while the

deference the target values and

the reported actual figure that

occurs by running time. Called

performance.

Result:

Forecast of 2015

Cargo Volume (Metric Tonnes) – Heathrow Airport

Summary

Three parameters will reflects the performance for airports, i.e Traffic Flow for

passengers, Aircraft Movements and Air cargo Activities. That create the base for

KPIs performance system in the airport. So by developing goals and targets, and

setting the company policy to define the threshold values for KPIs levels.

We address Air cargo activity of Heathrow airport, the basic analysis reflects 3 years

data base. When we compare the actual data with the model, it looks that the last year

data is fairly fitted while the remaining two years shows a considerable deviation and

that why R is less than 80% ( i.e 78.1%) while the growth is 2.77%. also its noted the

signal tracking analysis driven outside the boundary constrains i.e ± 9.95.