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Page 1: HEDGEYE ASSET ALLOCATIONdocs.hedgeye.com/HE_TMS_6.7.16.pdf · old format = $800/square ft new format = $1,300 sq ft . and the $64,000 question of does higher vol turn into revenue
Page 2: HEDGEYE ASSET ALLOCATIONdocs.hedgeye.com/HE_TMS_6.7.16.pdf · old format = $800/square ft new format = $1,300 sq ft . and the $64,000 question of does higher vol turn into revenue

HEDGEYE 2

DISCLAIMER Hedgeye Risk Management is a registered investment advisor, registered with the State of Connecticut. Hedgeye Risk Management is not a broker dealer and does not provide investment advice to individuals. This research does not constitute an offer to sell, or a solicitation of an offer to buy any security. This research is presented without regard to individual investment preferences or risk parameters; it is general information and does not constitute specific investment advice. This presentation is based on information from sources believed to be reliable. Hedgeye Risk Management is not responsible for errors, inaccuracies or omissions of information. The opinions and conclusions contained in this report are those of Hedgeye Risk Management, and are intended solely for the use of Hedgeye Risk Management’s clients and subscribers. In reaching these opinions and conclusions, Hedgeye Risk Management and its employees have relied upon research conducted by Hedgeye Risk Management’s employees, which is based upon sources considered credible and reliable within the industry. Hedgeye Risk Management is not responsible for the validity or authenticity of the information upon which it has relied. TERMS OF USE This report is intended solely for the use of its recipient. Re-distribution or republication of this report and its contents are prohibited. For more detail please refer to the appropriate sections of the Hedgeye Services Agreement and the Terms of Use at www.hedgeye.com.

LEGAL

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Page 3: HEDGEYE ASSET ALLOCATIONdocs.hedgeye.com/HE_TMS_6.7.16.pdf · old format = $800/square ft new format = $1,300 sq ft . and the $64,000 question of does higher vol turn into revenue

3MO

4/11/2014 THE MACRO SHOW

June 7, 2016

HEDGEYE ASSET ALLOCATION

Page 4: HEDGEYE ASSET ALLOCATIONdocs.hedgeye.com/HE_TMS_6.7.16.pdf · old format = $800/square ft new format = $1,300 sq ft . and the $64,000 question of does higher vol turn into revenue

3MO

4/11/2014 THE MACRO SHOW

June 7, 2016

0%

10%

20%

30%

40%

50%

60%

70%

80%

CASH U.S.EQUITIES

INT'LEQUITIES

COMMODITIES FOREIGNEXCHANGE

FIXED INCOME

74%

0% 0%

12%

24%

42%

HEDGEYE ASSET ALLOCATION

The maximum preferred exposure for cash is 100%. The maximum preferred exposure for each of the other asset classes is 33%.

Page 5: HEDGEYE ASSET ALLOCATIONdocs.hedgeye.com/HE_TMS_6.7.16.pdf · old format = $800/square ft new format = $1,300 sq ft . and the $64,000 question of does higher vol turn into revenue

1 2 3

USD

COMMODITIES

EUROPE

Page 6: HEDGEYE ASSET ALLOCATIONdocs.hedgeye.com/HE_TMS_6.7.16.pdf · old format = $800/square ft new format = $1,300 sq ft . and the $64,000 question of does higher vol turn into revenue

USD Burn baby burn: hawkish, dovish, hawkish, dovish – the U.S. Dollar continues to drive asset reflation. The buy signal – in U.S. Dollar being immediate-term TRADE oversold at 93.62 on the USD Index with an immediate-term range of 93.62-95.48 and a EUR/USD risk range of 1.10-1.14…is a good spot to raise cash (again) in USD.

Page 7: HEDGEYE ASSET ALLOCATIONdocs.hedgeye.com/HE_TMS_6.7.16.pdf · old format = $800/square ft new format = $1,300 sq ft . and the $64,000 question of does higher vol turn into revenue

COMMODITIES Not surprisingly, a USD oversold signal registers overbought signals in the CRB Index, Gold, and Copper. WTI’s overbought level is right around $49.99/barrel (CRB Index overbought level = 193); Copper backing off 1st, as it’s the weakest of the reflation hands short-term traders are willing to hold.

Page 8: HEDGEYE ASSET ALLOCATIONdocs.hedgeye.com/HE_TMS_6.7.16.pdf · old format = $800/square ft new format = $1,300 sq ft . and the $64,000 question of does higher vol turn into revenue

EUROPE Big mean reversion move higher this morning for European Equities (which got hammered again last week). Italian stocks are leading +1.8% on the MIB Index (after falling another -3.8% last week to -19% YTD); that’s helping U.S. Equity futures, but #EuropeSlowing is not (yet) the latest bull case for U.S. stocks.

Page 9: HEDGEYE ASSET ALLOCATIONdocs.hedgeye.com/HE_TMS_6.7.16.pdf · old format = $800/square ft new format = $1,300 sq ft . and the $64,000 question of does higher vol turn into revenue

HEDGEYE 9

OLD FORMAT = $800/SQUARE FT NEW FORMAT = $1,300 SQ FT

THE GRIND LOWER OF VOL THIS CYCLE IS STARTING TO BACK UP AND INFLECT HIGHER

DATA SOURCE: BLOOMBERG

Page 10: HEDGEYE ASSET ALLOCATIONdocs.hedgeye.com/HE_TMS_6.7.16.pdf · old format = $800/square ft new format = $1,300 sq ft . and the $64,000 question of does higher vol turn into revenue

HEDGEYE 10

OLD FORMAT = $800/SQUARE FT NEW FORMAT = $1,300 SQ FT

THE GRIND LOWER OF VOL THIS CYCLE IS STARTING TO BACKUP AND INFLECT HIGHER

DATA SOURCE: BLOOMBERG

Page 11: HEDGEYE ASSET ALLOCATIONdocs.hedgeye.com/HE_TMS_6.7.16.pdf · old format = $800/square ft new format = $1,300 sq ft . and the $64,000 question of does higher vol turn into revenue

HEDGEYE 11

OLD FORMAT = $800/SQUARE FT NEW FORMAT = $1,300 SQ FT

PERVERSELY A U.S. RECESSION IS BEST FOR THE BIGGEST DRIVER OF EXCHANGE TRADED ACTIVITY (VOL)

DATA SOURCE: BLOOMBERG

Page 12: HEDGEYE ASSET ALLOCATIONdocs.hedgeye.com/HE_TMS_6.7.16.pdf · old format = $800/square ft new format = $1,300 sq ft . and the $64,000 question of does higher vol turn into revenue

HEDGEYE 12

OLD FORMAT = $800/SQUARE FT NEW FORMAT = $1,300 SQ FT

GOLDMAN’S U.S. FINANCIAL CONDITIONS INDEX HAS RISEN INTO RECESSION THE PAST 2 CYCLES

DATA SOURCE: BLOOMBERG

Page 13: HEDGEYE ASSET ALLOCATIONdocs.hedgeye.com/HE_TMS_6.7.16.pdf · old format = $800/square ft new format = $1,300 sq ft . and the $64,000 question of does higher vol turn into revenue

HEDGEYE 13

OLD FORMAT = $800/SQUARE FT NEW FORMAT = $1,300 SQ FT

AND RISING (TIGHTENING) GS FINANCIAL CONDITIONS INDEX OVERLAYS TIGHTLY WITH THE VIX

DATA SOURCE: BLOOMBERG

Page 14: HEDGEYE ASSET ALLOCATIONdocs.hedgeye.com/HE_TMS_6.7.16.pdf · old format = $800/square ft new format = $1,300 sq ft . and the $64,000 question of does higher vol turn into revenue

HEDGEYE 14

OLD FORMAT = $800/SQUARE FT NEW FORMAT = $1,300 SQ FT

EUROPEAN VOL HAS THE SAME LINEAR RELATIONSHIP WITH ECONOMIC GROWTH

DATA SOURCE: BLOOMBERG

Page 15: HEDGEYE ASSET ALLOCATIONdocs.hedgeye.com/HE_TMS_6.7.16.pdf · old format = $800/square ft new format = $1,300 sq ft . and the $64,000 question of does higher vol turn into revenue

HEDGEYE 15

OLD FORMAT = $800/SQUARE FT NEW FORMAT = $1,300 SQ FT

VOLATILITY IS THE CAUSAL FACTOR FOR EXCHANGE TRADING HERE SHOWN AGAINST U.S. CASH EQUITIES

DATA SOURCE: BLOOMBERG, HEDGEYE RISK MANAGEMENT ESTIMATES

Page 16: HEDGEYE ASSET ALLOCATIONdocs.hedgeye.com/HE_TMS_6.7.16.pdf · old format = $800/square ft new format = $1,300 sq ft . and the $64,000 question of does higher vol turn into revenue

HEDGEYE 16

OLD FORMAT = $800/SQUARE FT NEW FORMAT = $1,300 SQ FT

STRONG RELATIONSHIP EXISTS BETWEEN EUROPEAN VOL AND EURO STOCK TRADING

DATA SOURCE: BLOOMBERG

Page 17: HEDGEYE ASSET ALLOCATIONdocs.hedgeye.com/HE_TMS_6.7.16.pdf · old format = $800/square ft new format = $1,300 sq ft . and the $64,000 question of does higher vol turn into revenue

HEDGEYE 17

OLD FORMAT = $800/SQUARE FT NEW FORMAT = $1,300 SQ FT

LATE CYCLE MEANS GETTING CLOSER TO THE CLIFF AND CLOSER TO HIGHER SUSTAINED VOL

DATA SOURCE: BLOOMBERG, HEDGEYE RISK MANAGEMENT ESTIMATES

Page 18: HEDGEYE ASSET ALLOCATIONdocs.hedgeye.com/HE_TMS_6.7.16.pdf · old format = $800/square ft new format = $1,300 sq ft . and the $64,000 question of does higher vol turn into revenue

HEDGEYE 18

OLD FORMAT = $800/SQUARE FT NEW FORMAT = $1,300 SQ FT

LATE CYCLE MEANS GETTING CLOSER TO THE CLIFF AND CLOSER TO HIGHER SUSTAINED VOL

DATA SOURCE: BLOOMBERG, HEDGEYE RISK MANAGEMENT ESTIMATES

Page 19: HEDGEYE ASSET ALLOCATIONdocs.hedgeye.com/HE_TMS_6.7.16.pdf · old format = $800/square ft new format = $1,300 sq ft . and the $64,000 question of does higher vol turn into revenue

HEDGEYE 19

OLD FORMAT = $800/SQUARE FT NEW FORMAT = $1,300 SQ FT

AND THE $64,000 QUESTION OF DOES HIGHER VOL TURN INTO REVENUE ON BOTH SIDES OF THE POND?

DATA SOURCE: BLOOMBERG, HEDGEYE RISK MANAGEMENT ESTIMATES

Page 20: HEDGEYE ASSET ALLOCATIONdocs.hedgeye.com/HE_TMS_6.7.16.pdf · old format = $800/square ft new format = $1,300 sq ft . and the $64,000 question of does higher vol turn into revenue

HEDGEYE 20

OLD FORMAT = $800/SQUARE FT NEW FORMAT = $1,300 SQ FT

CORPORATE SPREADS OVER TREASURY ALWAYS RISE INTO RECESSIONS PRESSURING CORPORATE LIQUIDITY

DATA SOURCE: BLOOMBERG

Page 21: HEDGEYE ASSET ALLOCATIONdocs.hedgeye.com/HE_TMS_6.7.16.pdf · old format = $800/square ft new format = $1,300 sq ft . and the $64,000 question of does higher vol turn into revenue

HEDGEYE 21

OLD FORMAT = $800/SQUARE FT NEW FORMAT = $1,300 SQ FT

WHICH RESULTS IN AN ADVANTAGE IN LOWER COST OF CAPITAL FOR THE INDUSTRY

DATA SOURCE: BLOOMBERG

Page 22: HEDGEYE ASSET ALLOCATIONdocs.hedgeye.com/HE_TMS_6.7.16.pdf · old format = $800/square ft new format = $1,300 sq ft . and the $64,000 question of does higher vol turn into revenue

HEDGEYE 22

OLD FORMAT = $800/SQUARE FT NEW FORMAT = $1,300 SQ FT

THE FUTURES EXCHANGES SKEW THE COMPS BUT WE THINK #’S ARE TOO LOW AND MARKET CAP WILL GROW

DATA SOURCE: BLOOMBERG, COMPANY ESTIMATES

Page 23: HEDGEYE ASSET ALLOCATIONdocs.hedgeye.com/HE_TMS_6.7.16.pdf · old format = $800/square ft new format = $1,300 sq ft . and the $64,000 question of does higher vol turn into revenue

3MO

4/11/2014 THE MACRO SHOW

June 7, 2016

HEDGEYE MACRO PROCESS: RATE OF CHANGE

Page 24: HEDGEYE ASSET ALLOCATIONdocs.hedgeye.com/HE_TMS_6.7.16.pdf · old format = $800/square ft new format = $1,300 sq ft . and the $64,000 question of does higher vol turn into revenue

3MO

4/11/2014 THE MACRO SHOW

June 7, 2016

REUTERS/JEFFERIES CRB INDEX

Page 25: HEDGEYE ASSET ALLOCATIONdocs.hedgeye.com/HE_TMS_6.7.16.pdf · old format = $800/square ft new format = $1,300 sq ft . and the $64,000 question of does higher vol turn into revenue

3MO

4/11/2014 THE MACRO SHOW

June 7, 2016

LABOR MARKET CONDITIONS INDEX

Page 26: HEDGEYE ASSET ALLOCATIONdocs.hedgeye.com/HE_TMS_6.7.16.pdf · old format = $800/square ft new format = $1,300 sq ft . and the $64,000 question of does higher vol turn into revenue

3MO

4/11/2014 THE MACRO SHOW

June 7, 2016

THINK WE’RE LAPPING BAD COMPS BY Q2?

Page 27: HEDGEYE ASSET ALLOCATIONdocs.hedgeye.com/HE_TMS_6.7.16.pdf · old format = $800/square ft new format = $1,300 sq ft . and the $64,000 question of does higher vol turn into revenue

3MO

4/11/2014 THE MACRO SHOW

June 7, 2016

HEDGEYE SECTOR PERFORMANCE

Page 28: HEDGEYE ASSET ALLOCATIONdocs.hedgeye.com/HE_TMS_6.7.16.pdf · old format = $800/square ft new format = $1,300 sq ft . and the $64,000 question of does higher vol turn into revenue

3MO

4/11/2014 THE MACRO SHOW

June 7, 2016

HEDGEYE SECTOR RELATIVE PERFORMANCE

Page 29: HEDGEYE ASSET ALLOCATIONdocs.hedgeye.com/HE_TMS_6.7.16.pdf · old format = $800/square ft new format = $1,300 sq ft . and the $64,000 question of does higher vol turn into revenue

3MO

4/11/2014 THE MACRO SHOW

June 7, 2016

HEDGEYE STYLE FACTOR PERFORMANCE

Page 30: HEDGEYE ASSET ALLOCATIONdocs.hedgeye.com/HE_TMS_6.7.16.pdf · old format = $800/square ft new format = $1,300 sq ft . and the $64,000 question of does higher vol turn into revenue

3MO

4/11/2014 THE MACRO SHOW

June 7, 2016

HEDGEYE RATES & SPREADS

Page 31: HEDGEYE ASSET ALLOCATIONdocs.hedgeye.com/HE_TMS_6.7.16.pdf · old format = $800/square ft new format = $1,300 sq ft . and the $64,000 question of does higher vol turn into revenue

3MO

4/11/2014 THE MACRO SHOW

June 7, 2016

CFTC NON-COMMERCIAL NET LONG POSITIONING

Page 32: HEDGEYE ASSET ALLOCATIONdocs.hedgeye.com/HE_TMS_6.7.16.pdf · old format = $800/square ft new format = $1,300 sq ft . and the $64,000 question of does higher vol turn into revenue

3MO

4/11/2014 THE MACRO SHOW

June 7, 2016

MARKET SHARE VOLUME & TOTAL VALUE TRADED


HEDGEYE ASSET ALLOCATION

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