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Helicopter Market Review – 2016

1


2016 orders, deliveries and fleet review

2


Deliveries overview: overall

3


Deliveries overview: turbines overall

4


Deliveries overview: OEM analysis

5

Airbus dominates numbers with 248 units


Deliveries overview: OEM analysis

6

Leonardo has delivered half of what Airbus has, but dominates the medium sector with49 × AW139s and 18 × AW169s


Deliveries overview: regional analysis

7


Deliveries overview: usage analysis

8


Deliveries overview: medium/heavies

9


Orders overview

10


Heavy types: H225 & S-92

11

Finance-owned heavy types on the rise: 44.2% ownership by companies in the finance sector since they entered the market in 2004


Light single-engined types

12


Light singles fleet development

13


Overview of EMS and SAR markets

14


EMS In-service fleet by region 2016

15

Africa2% Asia Pacific

10%

Europe30%

Latin America and Caribbean

2%Middle East

2%

North America54%

Source – Flight Fleets Analyzer


EMS In-service Fleet Comparison 2006 vs 2016

-100

-50

0

50

100

150

200

250

300

350

H13

5 / E

C13

5

H14

5 / E

C14

5

Bell

407

AW13

9

H13

0 / E

C13

0

AW11

9

AW10

9

Bell

429

H12

5 / A

S350

Bell

206

Bell

412

AW16

9

Bell

430

S-76

AS35

5

AS36

5

Bell

222

BK11

7

Bo10

5

No

of a

ircra

ft

16



EMS Orders Backlog by Helicopter type

AW1099%

AW11915%

AW13919%

AW16925%

Bell 2063%

Bell 4076%

H125 / AS3503%

H130 / EC1302%

H135 / EC13510%

H145 / EC1458%

17



SAR In-service Fleet by Region 2016

Africa2%

Asia Pacific31%

Europe28%

Latin America and Caribbean

2%

Middle East5%

North America32%

18


SAR In-service Fleet Development by Type 2006 vs 2016

-30

-20

-10

0

10

20

30

40

50

60

70

80

No

of a

ircra

ft

19


2017 Values Review and Update

20


Grounding lifted by FAA and EASA (with maintenance provisions).

Reportedly operating effectively in OGP and SAR with selected operators, notably in Asia & Africa.

2x Aircraft placed by Waypoint for U.N. contracts (Utility)

BUT

Local Authorities of Norway and UK yet to lift grounding, uncertainty about any reacceptance to the North Sea, its largest single market.

Nearly 1/3 of the offshore H225s handed back to Banks/Lessors by CHC.

Uncertainty regarding scale of applicable SAR/Utility market.

Overall

Values will not be provided until some certainty returns, ideally trading.

H225 Update


Market Values and Base Values

Annual Depreciation is applied to Base Values 01 January

All Market Values reviewed and changes applied 01 January.

While Base Value Depreciation is a guide in the long term, the market dictates 31 December to 01 January Market Value movements.

How much more or less Market Values change compared to Base Value we will refer to as the “Market Effect”.

Values Update


Values Update

23

-10.0%

-8.0%

-6.0%

-4.0%

-2.0%

0.0%

2.0%

4.0%

-10.0%

-8.0%

-6.0%

-4.0%

-2.0%

0.0%

2.0%

4.0%

Market Value Changes vs Expected DepreciationDec 31 2016 to Jan 1 2017

Base Value Forecast (2016, 1% inflation) Market Effect Market Value Change


Offshore Values Update

24

-10.0%

-8.0%

-6.0%

-4.0%

-2.0%

0.0%

2.0%

4.0%

-10.0%

-8.0%

-6.0%

-4.0%

-2.0%

0.0%

2.0%

4.0%

AS365 N3 AS365 N3+ H175 AS332 L1 H215 (AS332 C1e)

Bell 412EP AW139 AW189 S-76C++ S-76D S-92A

Medium / Heavy Market Value Changes vs Expected DepreciationDec 31 2016 to Jan 1 2017



Declines in OGP sector reduced end demand in this segment 2014-2017.

Excess capacity estimated to be between 30%-40% Jan 2016 -led to declines in Market Values.

Grounding of H225 reduced excess, cushioned some value declines.

CHC Ch.11 has increased available aircraft for some types.

Reports of improving lease rates and stabilizing OGP markets lend themselves to a cautiously positive 12-18 month outlook with the possibility of further value declines.




26

1250

1750

2250

2750

3250

3750

4250

-50%

-45%

-40%

-35%

-30%

-25%

-20%

-15%

-10%

-5%

0%

5%

10%

Market Value Retention vs Rig Counts (2014 Base Year)

S-92 H225 AW139 S-76C++ Baker Hughes Incorporated Worldwide Rig Count

flightglobal.com/consultancy 27

0%

25%

50%

75%

100%

50% 75% 100% 125% 150%

Num

ber o

f Hel

icop

ters

Market Value / Base Value Ratio

Cumulative Market Value/Base Value(Medium-Heavy Twin Engine Helicopter Fleet)

Jan-17 Dec-16 Jun-14



EMS/Utility Values Update

28

-10.0%

-8.0%

-6.0%

-4.0%

-2.0%

0.0%

2.0%

4.0%

-10.0%

-8.0%

-6.0%

-4.0%

-2.0%

0.0%

2.0%

4.0%

AS350B3 H125 (AS350 B3e)

EC135 P2+ (P2i) H135 (EC135 P3)

EC145 (BK117 C2)

H145 (EC145 T2)

Bell 407 Bell 407 GX Bell 429 AW169

Light Single / Twin Market Value Changes vs Expected DepreciationDec 31 2016 to Jan 1 2017



The soft corporate market created availability in 2013-2014.

Entry of new types and reduced values stimulating demand for replacement.

Some types suffering in values due to either cheaper or more capable aircraft in a competitive segment (EC145 C2, AW109).

Historically low values could indicate more room for growth and stability in the market over 2017/2018, with some positivity already being observed.




30

0%

25%

50%

75%

100%

50% 75% 100% 125% 150%

Num

ber o

f Hel

icop

ters

Market Value / Base Value Ratio

Cumulative Market Value/Base Value(Light Single / Twin Engine Helicopter Fleet)

Jan-17 Dec-16 Dec-14

flightglobal.com/consultancy 31

John MaloneyFleet Data Research Manager+44 (0)20 8564 6704+44 (0)7917 708 [email protected]

Chris SeymourHead of Market Analysis+44 (0)20 8564 6702+44 (0)7545 716 [email protected]

Ben ChapmanValuations Manager – UK+44 (0)20 8564 6789+44 (0)7545 439 [email protected]

Sara DhariwalAviation Analyst+44 (0)20 8564 6754+44 (0)7768 261 [email protected]

helicopter market review –2016 - rotorcraft asia market review –2016 1...

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