helping farmers manage climate variability the drylands a.m. whitbread & team institute of law,...
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Helping farmers manage climate variability the DrylandsA.M. Whitbread & TeamInstitute of Law, NIRMA University, Ahmedabad, Gujarat, India08 Nov 2014
Outline
• Define the Drylands and the challenges• Is climate changing and why?• How might we help farmers deal with climate variability?
Dryland Systems:
• 65 % of the worlds agricultural lands fall into the category of Drylands
• 2.5 billion people live in the Drylands• The majority of the poorest people live in
semi-arid areas• 644 million people are the poorest of the
poor• 1/3 of these rely on agriculture for their
livelihoods• 42% (27) of children in the Drylands of
Asia (SSA) are malnourished• Mixed (crop-livestock) farming systems
are predominant agricultural system
Challenges above the farm level…global challenges• Poor governance and political instability• Lack of political will in putting Drylands on the agenda• Lack of infrastructure, institutions and human capacity• Market failure or unfair policies creating skewed markets
• Gender inequalityFarm level challenges• Land fragmentation (e.g. Eastern Ethiopia- land size 0.5-0.25 ha)• Labour cost and availability• Conflict for resources (water, grazing rights)• Severe environmental degradation• High inherent climate variability and severe threat of higher
temperatures/lower rainfall and higher variability due to climate change
Markets
Tradeoffs and scale
Microbe-plant
Community, watershed, region…
Farm, household, livelihood…
Field, flock, forest
Markets
Resilient Dryland Systems:One of the 4 research programs at ICRISAT - ~34 FTE scientists across all locations (south Asia and sub-Saharan Africa)
• Undertakes ‘Systems’ research - uses multidisciplinary research (biophysical, social and economic sciences) to understand the ‘system’ context for better targeting and adoption of intervention strategies- these are IMOD driven strategies.
• An R4D approach at a range of scales but there is a focus at the level of the farm and one step above and below this scale (i.e. field-farm-watershed)
• Tools – Agro-meterology, crop modelling, household surveys, spatial analysis, innovation platforms/value chains.
Location and characteristics of the action sites
Is climate changing and why?
Contd…
FAO, 2014
http://www.wmo.int/pages/meetings/wrkshopipccparis014_en.html
Results of climate change analysis
Kesava Rao, Suhas P Wani, KK Singh, M Irshad Ahmed, K Srinivas, Snehal D Bairagi and O Ramadevi. 2013. Increased arid and semi-arid areas in India with associated shifts during 1971-2004.
J. of Agrometeorology 15 (1): 11- 18 (June 2013)
Change in areas between 1971-90 and 1991-2004Indian States
What does this mean for farmers?
Impacts
In the drylands, there is no average
Chisepo seasonal rainfall variation
565
159
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586
865
366493
786
558
57
648629
811853
525647
827
634
842
613642577
719
575
402
707580
429
858
722717
461570
666
510
1361
619
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2003 Avg
Season of harvest
Oct
ob
er t
o M
ay r
ain
fall
(mm
)
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-700,000
-500,000
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-100,000
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0
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Sth Mallee Farm - Farm Profit vs Cropping year rainfall
Farm Profit/Loss
Cropping year rainfall
Far
m P
rofi
t ($
)
Cro
pp
ing
Yea
r R
ain
fall
(m
m)
Actual farm data – southern Mallee farm (5200ha), 80% crop and 20% livestock (by area)Costs: Inputs, Machinery, Labour and FinancialData courtesy of Harm van Rees (CropFacts)
Australian farming is riskyActual farm profit for a Victorian mixed farm 1990-2010
75% profits in 25% years; losses in 50% years
Waikerie rotation experimentCalcarosol, PAWC = 70 mm; Treatments comparing district practice (pasture-wheat) Vs opportunity and intensive cropping.11 seasons 1998-2008
Effect of variations in PAW and seeding opportunity on percentage of modelled yields
Upper tercile (white)Middle tercile (grey)Lower tercile (black)
Planting opportunity: Early Late
Zone 1 – Hill topsIssues (water repellent, prone to root disease, high risk of wind erosion)Yield limited by nutritionConsider in-season N applications
Zone 2 - MidslopesVariable productionManage zone strategically In season decisions on input levels
Zone 3 - FlatsPoor yielding in dry years but may perform well in wet yearsSeldom nutrient limited so reduce inputsIn season decisions on end use (graze/hay/grain)
Some practical possibilities for Indian Farmers.
• Analysis of historical climate records (ENSO events, probabilistic decision points, opportunities for reducing risk).
• Better use of seasonal forecasts by making the forecasts relevant at a local level
• Having a wide range of crop/variety type options and seed available.
• Crop weather insurance
• Increased requirement for information on soils/crop response/forecasting
CCAFS- Project Operational Area• Kurnool, Anantapur are part
of Scarce rainfall Zone of Andhra Pradesh in Southern India.
• Kurnool: Annual normal rainfall 765 mm, Vertisols those support LGP up to 165d, rich crop diversity.
• Anantapur: Annual normal rainfall 560 mm, shallow Alfisols, low LGP <140d, peanut systems are dominant and less cropping options
ENSO Phase Analyses 1950-2002
El NinoLa Nina Neutral
ENSO Phases
0
200
400
600
JJA
S r
ain
fall
(mm
)Anantapur
El Nino La Nina NeutralENSO Phases
0
100
200
300
400
ON
D r
ain
fall
(mm
)
Smith and Reynolds (2003) Extended Reconstructed SSTs of (1971-2000) 3.4 region (El Nino 16, La Nina 15, Neutral 22)
ENSO Phase Analyses
El Nino La Nina NeutralENSO Phases
100
300
500
700
900
JJA
S r
ain
fall
(mm
)Nandyala
El Nino La Nina NeutralENSO Phases
0
100
200
300
400
500
ON
D r
ain
fall
(mm
)
Smith and Reynolds (2003) Extended Reconstructed SSTs of (1971-2000) 3.4 region (El Nino 16, La Nina 15, Neutral 22)
Evaluation of forecast informationDiscussions with farmers
• Farmers’ crop management decisions during the season have been recorded as against discussed crop options
• Village meetings were conducted participating farmers to discuss their management decisions during the season.
• To understand their future needs on rainfall forecast information
• Ways of disseminating the CF information
Climate awareness at watershedsSharing of agroclimatic information with farmers – wall writings
Weather awareness at watersheds
Training to the farmers to operate and maintain the ICRISAT fabricated raingauge at Bharkheda Khurd watershed, Chachoda Block, Guna district, MP
Farmers themselves measure rainfall and record. Datalogger nevertheless records rainfall automatically, which will be downloaded at regular intervals
Weather awareness at watersheds Training to students to
operate and maintain the AW Station
Students collect weather parameters daily and display at the school
Climate awareness for Farm Facilitators
District Agricultural Training Centre, Gulbarga
Extension material
• The Drylands are highly complex environments- to seriously effect change, we must consider the context and above all ‘risk’.
• Huge gains in productivity can be immediately be gained by better crop management and integration of knowledge – and building human capacity, transferring knowledge…BUT in the context of the system and risk.
• Science and policy need to be much closer.• Partnerships is perhaps the single most important aspect for responding to
climate change – much greater levels of partnership must be put in place.
Summing up
Thank you!
ICRISAT is a member of the CGIAR Consortium
Climate Smart
Villages
Community
approach to
adaptation and
mitigation
Adaptation
Food securit
yMitigation
Objectives in climate-smart
villages?
Climate Smart
Technologies
Climate Information
Services
Local Knowledge
and Institutions
Village Developmen
t Plans
Climate Smart Village
Key components