hennepin county transportation systems plan (hc-tsp) traffic forecasting model
DESCRIPTION
Hennepin County Transportation Systems Plan (HC-TSP) Traffic Forecasting Model. Background. Model initially developed in 1997-98 Derived from Met Council Regional Model Minor Updates in 2000 & 2002 Conversion from TRANPLAN / TransPro to TransCAD begun in 2004. Model Features. - PowerPoint PPT PresentationTRANSCRIPT
Hennepin County Transportation Systems Plan (HC-TSP)Traffic Forecasting Model
Model initially developed in 1997-98 Derived from Met Council Regional
Model Minor Updates in 2000 & 2002 Conversion from TRANPLAN / TransPro
to TransCAD begun in 2004
Background
Model Features
Land Use Based (sq-ft, Dwelling Units, etc.) – linked to Countywide parcel database
Strong GIS Linkage (ArcGIS)Only Vehicle Trips Modeled3-Purposes for Trip Productions /
Attractions (HBW, HBO, NHB)Trip Generation via ITE trip rates
Model Characteristics
To accurately depict Arterials – must model one level below (to collector street level) – this requires 50% increase in nodes / links
Status of Met Council Model Calibration1990 Model versus 1990 Mn/DOT Trunk Highway Counts
(291 Counted Trunk Highway Segments)
0.0%
5.0%
10.0%
15.0%
20.0%
25.0%
< -40 % -40 to -30 % -30 to -20 % -20 to -10 % -10 to 0 % 0 to +10 % +10 to +20%
+20 to +30%
+30 to +40%
> +40 %
Relative Deviation from Actual Count
Per
cen
t o
f O
bse
rvat
ion
s
<--- Amount Lower than count Amount Higher than count ---
>
Status of Met Council Model Calibration1990 Model versus 1990 Hennepin County Highway Counts
(464 Counted Hennepin County Highway Segments)
0.0%
5.0%
10.0%
15.0%
20.0%
25.0%
< -40 % -40 to -30 % -30 to -20 % -20 to -10 % -10 to 0 % 0 to +10 % +10 to +20%
+20 to +30%
+30 to +40%
> +40 %
Relative Deviation from Actual Count
Per
cen
t o
f O
bse
rvat
ion
s
<--- Amount Lower than count Amount Higher than count ---
>
Model Characteristics
Huge databases to manage(parcel database 350,000+ records)
Suburban Minneapolis Total
Residential 219,786 92,518 312,304 88.1%
Industrial 2,578 1,344 3,922 1.1%
Commercial 3,786 2,594 6,380 1.8%
Other Misc. Uses 2,729 1,109 3,838 1.1%
Vacant 22,645 5,356 28,001 7.9%
Total: 251,524 102,921 354,445
Hennepin County Parcel Database2005 Base Year
Model Characteristics
Met Council TAZ’s split about 3:1500 Met Council TAZ -> 1,500 HC TAZ
Model Characteristics
High level of ADT calibration
Why TransCAD ?
Some previous familiarity with the package –had dabbled with Demo copy in 2003-04
Local Road Research Board Project in 2004 –Snowplow routing (2 licenses purchased)
Package had ITE Trip Generation built-inGood GIS compatibility with ArcView
Status of Model Refinements
Existing Land Use verification completed (required 1-1/2 year effort)
TAZ’s refined – parcels allocated to bothMet Council and Hennepin County TAZ’s
First attempt for existing trip generation completed
Schedule