here be dragons: insights to conquer unknown markets | stephanie llamas
TRANSCRIPT
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HERE BE DRAGONSUsing Market Insights to Conquer
Unknown Markets
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2Copyright © 2016 SuperData Research. All rights reserved. | www.superdataresearch.com
MARKET-LEVEL DATA 50 CONTRIBUTING PUBLISHERS
4 KEY METRICS
500+ UNIQUE TITLES
48MM UNIQUE PAYING USERS TRANSACTION-LEVEL 6 GAMING SEGMENTS
12 YEARS OF DATA
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3Copyright © 2016 SuperData Research. All rights reserved. | www.superdataresearch.com
MARKET-LEVEL DATA 50 CONTRIBUTING PUBLISHERS
4 KEY METRICS
500+ UNIQUE TITLES
48MM UNIQUE PAYING USERS TRANSACTION-LEVEL 6 GAMING SEGMENTS
12 YEARS OF DATA
PLAYABLE MEDIA GAMING VIDEO CONTENTVIRTUAL REALITYESPORTS
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4Copyright © 2016 SuperData Research. All rights reserved. | www.superdataresearch.com
MARKET-LEVEL DATA 50 CONTRIBUTING PUBLISHERS
4 KEY METRICS
500+ UNIQUE TITLES
48MM UNIQUE PAYING USERS TRANSACTION-LEVEL 6 GAMING SEGMENTS
12 YEARS OF DATA
PLAYABLE MEDIA GAMING VIDEO CONTENTVIRTUAL REALITYESPORTS
SUPERDATA ARCADE THE WORLD'S ONLY CROSS-PLATFORM BUSINESS INTELLIGENCE TOOL ON WORLDWIDE DIGITAL GAMES
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| Playable media & games market research
5THE VIEW FROM BELOW | © 2015 SuperData Research | www.superdataresearch.com
STEPHANIE LLAMAS Director, Research and Insights @Stephinaners
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| Playable media & games market research
6THE VIEW FROM BELOW | © 2015 SuperData Research | www.superdataresearch.com
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| Playable media & games market research
MARKET TRENDS
OPPORTUNITIESCopyright © 2016 SuperData Research. All rights reserved. | www.superdataresearch.com
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| Playable media & games market research
Copyright © 2016 SuperData Research. All rights reserved. | www.superdataresearch.com
Mobile $30.1B
Retail $13.1B
PC DLC $5.3B Social
$8.4B
Free-to-play $14.0BGaming video
content $3.8B
Digital console $6.4B
Pay-to-play $2.6BeSports $748M
$85.1B Global games market,
2015
VR $661M
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| Playable media & games market research
Copyright © 2016 SuperData Research. All rights reserved. | www.superdataresearch.com
$7.1
$31.2
$32.8
GLOBAL DIGITAL GAMES MARKET, 2016E $BILLIONS
PC
CONSOLE
MOBILE
PLATFORM 2015 2016E YOY INCREASE
Mobile $30.1 $32.8 9.0%
PC $30.3 $31.2 3.0%
Console $6.4 $7.1 10.9%
Total $36.7 $38.3 4.4%
*PC includes pay-to-play MMOs, free-to-play MMOs, PC DLC and Social games
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| Playable media & games market research
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PLAYABLEDIGITALPHYSICAL
Total 2015 global revenues ($)
Late Early
Slowing
Accelerating
LIFECYCLE STAGES FOR KEY SEGMENTS IN INTERACTIVE ENTERTAINMENT, 2015
Mobile $30.1B
Retail $13.1B
PC DLC $5.3B
Social $8.4B Free-to-play
$14.0B
Gaming video content $3.8B
Digital console
$6.4B
Pay-to-play $2.6B
eSports $748M Virtual reality
$661M
INNOVATIVE MOM
ENTUM
LIFECYCLE
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| Playable media & games market research
Copyright © 2016 SuperData Research. All rights reserved. | www.superdataresearch.com
PLAYABLEDIGITALPHYSICAL
Total 2015 global revenues ($)
Late Early
Slowing
Accelerating
Retail $13.1B
Pay-to-play $2.6B
INNOVATIVE MOM
ENTUM
LIFECYCLE
LIFECYCLE STAGES FOR KEY SEGMENTS IN INTERACTIVE ENTERTAINMENT, 2015
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| Playable media & games market research
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PLAYABLEDIGITALPHYSICAL
Total 2015 global revenues ($)
Late Early
Slowing
Accelerating
Mobile $30.1B
Retail $13.1B
Social $8.4B
Pay-to-play $2.6B
INNOVATIVE MOM
ENTUM
LIFECYCLE
Free-to-play $14.0B
PC DLC $5.3B
Digital console
$6.4B
LIFECYCLE STAGES FOR KEY SEGMENTS IN INTERACTIVE ENTERTAINMENT, 2015
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| Playable media & games market research
Copyright © 2016 SuperData Research. All rights reserved. | www.superdataresearch.com
In a place with a million and a half apps, tapping into
[something an audience loves] –
especially a long-running, beloved,
powerful IP – gives you access to an audience that would be very difficult to
get to otherwise.-Bill Mooney, EA Mobile Senior Vice President
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| Playable media & games market research
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| Playable media & games market research
Copyright © 2016 SuperData Research. All rights reserved. | www.superdataresearch.com
2014 2015 2016E 2017E 2018E
$10.3B$9.4B
$8.7B$7.9B
$6.1B
$8.7B China mobile games revenue, 2015E
29.%
11%8% 10%
Revenue change YoY
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$962.5M Asia’s emerging mobile games market, 2015
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| Playable media & games market research
India
$415.8 million
Malaysia
$99.6 million
Indonesia
$258.1 million
Vietnam $63.9
million
Hong Kong
$83.6 million
Singapore $41.4
million
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| Playable media & games market research
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PLAYABLEDIGITALPHYSICAL
Total 2015 global revenues ($)
Late Early
Slowing
Accelerating
Mobile $30.1B
Retail $13.1B
Social $8.4B
Pay-to-play $2.6B
INNOVATIVE MOM
ENTUM
LIFECYCLE
Free-to-play $14.0B
PC DLC $5.3B
Digital console
$6.4B
Gaming video content $3.8B
eSports $748M
LIFECYCLE STAGES FOR KEY SEGMENTS IN INTERACTIVE ENTERTAINMENT, 2015
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“It’s not a search for legitimacy anymore. It’s a search for growth.” -Kevin Lin, Twitch COO
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5%2%
6%
43%36%
9%10%11%
53%
73%By viewing volumeBy revenue (advertising, donations and subscriptions)
GAMING VIDEO CONTENT GLOBAL MARKET SHARE, 2015E By platform
Copyright © 2016 SuperData Research. All rights reserved. | www.superdataresearch.com
Gaming video content takes on an important gate-keeper function.
But can live streaming solve discovery issues in digital games market?
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| Playable media & games market research
“eSports will rival the biggest traditional sports leagues in terms of future opportunities.”—Steve Bornstein, former CEO of ESPN and the NFL Network, current Chairman of Activision-Blizzard eSports Division
| Playable media & games market research
Copyright © 2016 SuperData Research. All rights reserved. | www.superdataresearch.com
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| Playable media & games market research
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2%2%
4%
7%7%
eSports betting & fantasy sites $55.8M
Prize pools $53.8M
Amateur & micro- tournaments $27.7M
Merchandise $17.0M
Ticket sales $15.9M
eSports market size,
2015E
million
Sponsorships & advertising
$578.6M
$747.5
INDIRECT 77%
DIRECT 23%
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| Playable media & games market research
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PLAYABLEDIGITALPHYSICAL
Total 2015 global revenues ($)
Late Early
Slowing
Accelerating
Mobile $30.1B
Retail $13.1B
Social $8.4B
Pay-to-play $2.6B
INNOVATIVE MOM
ENTUM
LIFECYCLE
Free-to-play $14.0B
PC DLC $5.3B
Digital console
$6.4B
Gaming video content $3.8B
eSports $748M Virtual reality
$661M
LIFECYCLE STAGES FOR KEY SEGMENTS IN INTERACTIVE ENTERTAINMENT, 2015
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“Virtual reality is inevitable... It’s the real deal, and you need to give it a chance.” —Palmer Luckey, Founder of Oculus VR
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$3.2B Total worldwide market for the Virtual Reality gaming hardware, software and peripherals market, 2016E
North America $1.0B
Rest of World $0.2B
Europe $1.1B
Asia $0.8B
*Market size includes hardware, software and peripherals sales
VIRTUAL REALITY GAMING MARKET SIZE, 2016E BY REGION
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Playstation VR
Oculus Rift
Samsung Gear
Google Cardboard
HTC Vive
Other 13%
5%
7%
10%
13%
30%
VR DEVICE PURCHASE INTENT United States, September 2015
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Virtual Reality hardware install base worldwide, 2016E
| Playable media & games market research
*Hardware prices based on manufacturer announcements and estimates | 1Q: Which of the following VR or AR devices do you plan on purchasing?
26
LIGHT MOBILE VR
Notable devices Google Cardboard
($10-$120) Supporting hardware Smartphone ($350+)
Global 2016E user base
71% 27.1MCONSOLE
VR
Notable devices Playstation VR ($400-$600)
Supporting hardware Playstation 4 ($350)
Global 2016E user base
5% 1.9M
PC VR
Notable devices Oculus Rift, HTC Vive
($300-$700+) Supporting hardware Gaming PC ($1000+)
Global 2016E user base
6.6M17%PREMIUM
MOBILE VR
Notable devices Samsung Gear VR ($100)
Supporting hardware Samsung Galaxy
Smartphone ($500+) Global 2016E user base
2.5M7%
38.9MCopyright © 2016 SuperData Research. All rights reserved. | www.superdataresearch.com
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2015 2016E 2017E 2018E 2019E
$11.1B
$7.6B
$5.1B
$3.2B
$0.7B
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| Playable media & games market research
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$3.2B Total worldwide market for the Virtual Reality gaming hardware, software and peripherals market, 2016E
*Market size includes hardware, software and peripherals sales
2015 2016E 2017E 2018E 2019E
MobileConsolePC
VIRTUAL REALITY GAMING MARKET SIZE, 2016E BY PLATFORM
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Mobile and PC are neck-and-neck for first place, hovering near $30B
Retail, subscriptions and social games are a combined 28% of the interactive entertainment market, and will keep losing market share
Mobile has consolidated, making it harder to break in but giving developers a unique opportunity with IP
Don’t go to China! Tap into South East Asia’s $1B mobile market instead
Find out where your players go to watch gaming video content, but remember they will see through overt marketing tactics
eSports is a small global market at just $750M, or less than 1% of the gaming and playable media market. It’s already dominated by the top players so don’t try to build an eSport - build a competitive fan community
Virtual Reality is not a new peripheral, it’s a new medium. Don’t just port your game to VR - make a game for VR and tap into this year’s $3.2B market early on.
KEY TAKEAWAYS
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Copyright © 2016 SuperData Research. All rights reserved. | www.superdataresearch.com
THANK YOU!
STEPHANIE LLAMAS DIRECTOR OF RESEARCH & INSIGHTS SUPERDATA RESEARCH
[email protected] @STEPHINANERS @_SUPERDATA
QUESTIONS?